Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

  1. Silky..: ” I hope the sex party have a candidate for Charlton in the lower house.”

    Of course, Silky, voting for the sex party would validate all that public masturbation you do!

  2. Nice photos of PMJG though. I hear there is criticism from the usual suspects but they are just the same ones pissing in the punchbowl again.

    Not worth listening to.

  3. [Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 8:37 pm | PERMALINK
    r
    Bligh made stuff up. Swan reported the fact that Abbott was drunk.]

    Drunk? to drunk to drive a car? to drunk to walk? had a few drinks?

    on what facts bar a desperate political shot is swan making a drunk claim….

  4. [Bligh made stuff up. Swan reported the fact that Abbott was drunk.]

    Yes, but the next morning Tony Abbott was sober, whereas Wayne Swan woke up still Wayne Swan.

  5. Boerwar

    A quick edit.

    [Swan reported the fact that Abbott was drunk ,bashed, befuddled, boozed up, buzzed, crocked, feeling no pain, flushed, flying, fuddled, glazed, groggy, high, inebriated, juiced, laced, liquored up, lit, lush, muddled, munted , plastered, potted, seeing double, sloshed, stewed, stoned, tanked, three sheets to the wind, tight , tipsy, totaled, under the influence, under the table, and wasted ]

  6. r
    Falling asleep drunk while on parliamentary duty during the worst economic crisis the nation has faced since the Great Depression.

  7. ummel
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 8:36 pm | PERMALINK
    Swans attack on Abbott today was a real Bligh Government the end is nigh moment.

    ———-

    pyne attack on gillard was yesterday

    and the problem for the coalition that is all they have

  8. [Falling asleep drunk while on parliamentary duty during the worst economic crisis the nation has faced since the Great Depression.]

    Winston Churchill was drunk through the whole of World War II.

  9. [Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 8:42 pm | PERMALINK
    r
    Falling asleep drunk while on parliamentary duty during the worst economic crisis the nation has faced since the Great Depression.]

    Was Swan talking all night? i could understand it and sympathise with Abbott on that.

  10. Pyne has brought up

    Abbotts captain pick brought

    what involvement pyne,abbott , and others in the liberal party had with the plot against slipper

  11. “Not me, I wish though 🙂 . It was from an old article and was supposed to be the recipe for Inspector Crabbe’s Steak and Kidney pie from the “Pie in the Sky” tv series.”

    It really is very good indeed. Be careful of the flour which I would add later as it tends to make it stick unless simmered on a very low flame. I also used a couple of teaspoons of Bonox to make the stock. Very ‘more-ish’.

    Thanks for the post.

    BTW A teaspoon of Bonox in hot water topped up with a shot of rum is very warming on a cold morning
    👿

  12. BT

    ‘Winston Churchill was drunk through the whole of World War II.’

    And many an Aussie paid the ultimate price on the pisspot’s lack of military judgement.

  13. Rummel,

    [on what facts bar a desperate political shot is swan making a drunk claim….]

    On the basis of a rather large and prominent article in… wait for it… the Daily Telegraph (no friend to Labor) that was published at the time.

    I believe his “drinking several bottles of wine”was mentioned.

    However, I’m not a librarian, so look it up for yourself. It was linked a few pages back I think.

  14. rummel @1005

    Your journal of record made note of it at the time

    [March 08, 2009
    TONY Abbott missed the key economic vote of the new Parliament – the $42 billion fiscal stimulus package – because he fell asleep after a night of drinking witnessed by MPs from both sides of Parliament.

    Mr Abbott told Chief Opposition Whip Alex Somlyay that he missed five divisions on the night of Thursday, February 12 because he fell asleep in his office.

    His nap followed dinner in the Members’ Dining Room with Peter Costello, Kevin Andrews and Peter Dutton, where numerous bottles of wine were consumed
    ]
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/archive/national-old/abbott-snoozed-through-key-vote/story-e6freuzr-1111119064644

  15. r

    Falling asleep drunk while on parliamentary duty during the worst economic crisis the nation has faced since the Great Depression.

    Nice try but Abbott is your problem here.

  16. [And many an Aussie paid the ultimate price on the pisspot’s lack of military judgement.]

    BT, you have woken a sleeping giant.

  17. If the ashby appeal hearing is dismiss with in the next 3m months

    Will pyne , abbott ,hockey ,j,Bishop ,brough stand down if the afp start thier investigation

  18. [muttleymcgee
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 8:31 pm | PERMALINK
    “Doesn’t look good for a challenge tomorrow. Looks like it’s time to pull up stumps on the Ruddstoration.”

    At last!! We’ve only been saying for several years that Rudd is rooted …..]

    So, Chicken Kev has given up, has he?

    After the poultry (he he)excuse he gave today, for not travelling with the PM to Hazel Hawke’s memorial service (mirroring the abject Tony Abbott’s gutless behaviour), you just know that he didn’t want to discuss anything to do with leadership, let alone unite the party.

    For a bloke, a fellow, a Christian, who always tells the truth, a chap unafraid of facing the inevitable, Kev, like Abbott, is a few bob short of guts.

  19. [Battle Turkeys
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 8:44 pm | PERMALINK
    Falling asleep drunk while on parliamentary duty during the worst economic crisis the nation has faced since the Great Depression.

    Winston Churchill was drunk through the whole of World War II.]

    And Hitler was sober the whole time!

  20. [Winston Churchill was drunk through the whole of World War II.]

    Churchill said: “I have got much more out of alcohol than alcohol has got out of me.” Churchill was never so drunk that he couldn’t conduct business. His physical stamina for a man of his age and bad habits astonished everyone (read Lord Moran’s memoirs). He was certainly never too drunk to vote in a division.

  21. BB
    Talking about sleeping giants, I was only the other day reading a book by Behr, a journalist, who was in a Paris courtyard when Winston came out to relieve himself on the cobblestones. Behr described how Churchill had to spend some time stuffing himself back into his trousers because his organ of reproduction was extra-large.

    From the rest of the book, I would say that Behr was not generally prone to exaggeration.

  22. SR
    “For a bloke, a fellow, a Christian, who always tells the truth, a chap unafraid of facing the inevitable, Kev, like Abbott, is a few bob short of guts.”

    And that’s not all!

    👿

  23. This bears repeating – an angry assessment of Abbott and the opposition by Rob Oakeshott:

    [But Oakeshott also had an angry assessment of some of critics – including those in the Coalition – who had run down the hung parliament, saying he “questioned the loyalty to the nation” of people so “wedded to their party of choice that they opt to hate their parliament if their party does not control it”.

    “Since when has disrespecting a parliament, rather than respecting a parliament, been an act of loyalty? Since when is disrespecting the office of prime minister, rather than respecting the office of prime minister, seen as an act of loyalty? Since when is verballing and patronising electors, that they somehow got it wrong in 2010 rather than respecting the result, seen as an act of loyalty?” he said.

    “Of course, none of these are acts of loyalty at any level. They are the acts and views of radicals. And many, too many, have fallen into this lazy world of spit and venom at the expense of nation-building and investing respectfully in our institutions that are the foundation of our democracy.”]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/25/rob-oakeshott-labor-leadership-vote

  24. TBW

    I join alias and JV in thanking you for sharing your memories about Dan Curtin.

    He was obviously a great Labor man, and it must have been exciting for you to be part of the ‘team’ at such a young age.

    Just ignore the usual suspects here when they took the opportunity to be pedantic and insulting.

    It comes with the Gillard suicide cult mission they are on.

    It’s part of their DNA.

  25. It’s a sad indictment of Labor’s plight that they have chosen to play the drunk card. The mutual antics of fellow pollies in the parliamentary bar and out of it in parliament from time to time have always been off limits across the board. THat’s where the ‘tired and emotional’ classic was born. I suspect Swan will be seen as a rat for this across the chamber.

  26. [poroti
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 8:49 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel

    And Hitler was sober the whole time!

    And a vegetarian to boot. There may be a lesson there]

    Was he a Green :devil:

  27. “It’s a sad indictment of Labor’s plight that they have chosen to play the drunk card. The mutual antics of fellow pollies in the parliamentary bar and out of it in parliament from time to time have always been off limits across the board. THat’s where the ‘tired and emotional’ classic was born. I suspect Swan will be seen as a rat for this across the chamber.”

    By his own admission Abbott is a grog monster who has to drink shandies to stay in control. Just as Kerr was as full as the last bus at the Melbourne Cup, so Abbott and his fellow diners were not in a fit state to be representing us in Parliament, and no amount of spinning, tutting or bullshit will disguise the fact that Rabbott was ratshit.

  28. [Churchill said: “I have got much more out of alcohol than alcohol has got out of me.” Churchill was never so drunk that he couldn’t conduct business. His physical stamina for a man of his age and bad habits astonished everyone (read Lord Moran’s memoirs). He was certainly never too drunk to vote in a division.]

    Pissed blokes saying pissed blokes were not pissed is why pissed blokes think they’re not pissed to this day.

    And, worse, they think they make good decisions whilst pissed.

    Like going to war.

    It’s good to expend the lives of young men, while pissed, isn’t it?

    If you listen to Churchill’s call to arms, he’s so pissed he could barely articulate the advent of war, he was so inebriated.

    Lucky the drunks won.

  29. “Gawd we have had Abbott the thug. Abbott the mysoginist. Finally Abbott the drunk.”

    And there are still some who would vote for him!

  30. [davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 8:57 pm | PERMALINK
    Gawd we have had Abbott the thug. Abbott the mysoginist. Finally Abbott the drunk.]

    the man appears unfit to be PM

  31. I seem to recall reading somewhere that in his final stint as PM Chruchill may have been at least partially brain-damaged from his life-time’s over-consumption of alcohol and that he used to bore colleagues like Eden witless with garrulous meanders during Cabinet meetings.

    Not sure of that but I am sure that someone here would know.

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