Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

  1. Boerwar

    My Dad died in 1981 and my Mum is now 90 she has had a couple of falls in the last twelve months and two operations. She is going to rehab next Monday and we will then be place with looking at options.

    Thanks for your kind remark!

  2. [Those of us here who have been lamenting the ALPs sad and sorry political numbscullery over the past 3 years and have been called names and generally abused for doing so have been right all along.]

    Just over 2 years ago I (correctly as it’s transpired), called the Member for Griffith’s whiteanting when he appeared solo on Qanda. Boerwar did too, from memory.

    At that point the only ‘lamenters’ such as yourself were screeching hysterics like TP and a commenter named ‘evan’ who has since moved on.

    Up until recently both Boerwar and myself were pilloried, abused and even told that we were making this blog unreadable for our observations about the Member in question and his apparent behaviour.

    It wasn’t really until the whiteanting continued after his failed leadership challenge last year that other Labor commenters here started to realise what he was doing.

    Your observations and claims are not correct in my experience.

  3. “Once a major public figure loses control of her/his image, it’s a slippery slope. Ridicule and mockery are very hard to wind back.”

    Rabbott would know. The only thing his red Budgie Smugglers need is a blue cape.

    To go with the tie …. πŸ‘Ώ πŸ‘Ώ

  4. tbw@942: thanks. Thanks. I wasn’t having a go at you for preferring Rudd to Gillard. I find Rudd most objectionable, but I am not a Gillard fan either: she’s been a huge disappointment AFAIC.

    I thought you were one of the posters on here who saw Rudd as a force for reform within the Labor Party. But you seem to be denying that. Good, because the idea is utterly groundless.

  5. The Pilbara is yet to experience a ‘dry’ season this year, and is currently experiencing floods.

    But don’t mention AGW.

  6. I hate to join the chorus of criticism but I must agree that the PMO was very naive if they thought the Women’s Weekly, or any print media at all, would give Gillard a fair run. They should have made it a condition of the interview that they see both the text and the photos chosen in advance. The WW would probably have said no, but that would have been preferable to what has now happened.

  7. I remember back in 2007

    I didn’t much care that the MSM was not giving Howard a fair go.

    I didn’t care that Coalitionites were annoyed with him, either.

    I was gleeful, but I didn’t rub it in.

    And I don’t recall Coalition die-hards jumping in with their boots on to denigrate the incumbent.

    But the difference is, that’s what we have here.

    From a woman with an impeccable Labor pedigree to a bloke who ran for office in 1972 for Labor as a young’un, both, without exception, are taking a baseball bat to one of their own.

    Beyond comprehension.

    If Labor loses in September, blame yourselves. Bastards.

  8. CTar1

    [ but Vikings in BMW X5β€²s heading S-E looking for a sun tan on one shoulder and an axe in the other hand has at least some cache).]

    Would Beemer Bikes do ?

    [What is Biking Viking all about?:

    Biking Viking is a well-established motorcycle rental, which specializes in motorcycle tours around Iceland

    Biking Viking has long experience with BMW motorcycles and offers computer reading for them as well as any kind of service, from tire change to motor overhauls]
    http://www.bikingviking.is/?c=webpage&id=38

  9. “The WW would probably have said no, but that would have been preferable to what has now happened.”

    After the myriad of Rabbott’s stunts, his “charity” bikerides and the rest of the pure bullshit he goes on with, this is what appears about Gillard.

    Pathetic.

  10. “Gillard now into $1.30 with the bookies. I knew that $1.75 I got was good value.”

    But, but, but, the bookies are ALWAYS right.

    Aren’t they?

  11. Psephos

    [They should have made it a condition of the interview that they see both the text and the photos chosen in advance.]

    Don’t be so naive.

    It would have been “leaked’ anyway if the text and photos had been “chosen in advance.”

    And you’re our Insider!

    What do you have to say about Danby’s comments this morning, seeing as they were used against the PM?

  12. TBW

    This is a challenging time for you and your sister. It sounds as though your mother has been quite independent up until recently and you now face the difficult task of finding suitable accommodation with medical back-up on hand.

    On this subject, the little noticed film out now “Still mine” deals with some of these questions in a very moving manner. It’s a true story of a guy in a beautiful part of Canada, New Brunswick, who tries to build a new home for his wife, who is beginning to suffer dementia. Very moving, I thought.

    Of course, your circumstances and those of your mother are quite different but it’s a film worth seeing, I thought.

  13. Psephos:

    What is the objective of the PMO? It’s hard at times to ascertain which of its commentary are related to the office of Prime Minister, and which are related to the leader of the ALP.

  14. Psephos

    No amount of PMO text would neutralise that photo. That photo is not of Julia Gillard. I believe it’s a heavily made up extra on the internal set of the next Merchant Ivory movie.

  15. [After the myriad of Rabbott’s stunts, his β€œcharity” bikerides and the rest of the pure bullshit he goes on with, this is what appears about Gillard.]

    I like both Juliar and Rabbott deserve everything they get. Terrible time for Australian politics.

  16. So let me get this right? The bookies are 100% right – clairvoyant, if you will, when it comes to speculating on ALP leadership.

    Yet, when it comes to the question of who will win in September, they are just clueless mugs taking a wild punt. Right?

  17. “twitter suggests 730 has interviewed Russell Crowe and that he was supportive of the PM.

    Did anyone watch?”

    While Masterchef is on? Really?

    Surely in-depth ABC commentary beats Masterchef!

    Not even fine dining, just pizza and screaming.

    Says it all really.

  18. So how is the Dirty Digger’s flagship reporting things ? Top left of online version another round of “Fair and balanced” πŸ™‚

    [ PM survives caucus backlash on boats

    INDONESIA: Asylum kids in toxic limbo

    SIEV: ‘Nothing done’ as boatpeople died

    MISTAKE: Gender war misfires for PM

    PETER VAN ONSELEN: Rudd must move on ALP

    LEADERSHIP: Rudd’s trip may spark showdown

    HOBBY: Julia knits a royal roo ]

  19. My Two Bobs Worth

    Just been reading through this afternoon’s posts. On your family history, you have been straight, genuine, interesting and calm among a plethora of baleful, sour nobodies trying but failing to chip at you out of sheer intra-partisan nastiness.

  20. Carey Moore:

    The bookies had Geelong favourite to win against Brisbane, and Sydney favourite to win against Port Adelaide at the weekend.

    Does that answer your question?

  21. poroti

    The north-west coast of the Black Sea is all that the Rivera was before 1950.

    The unquantifiable bit is how to buy a piece of it and how much it would cost to hang on to it.

  22. Graeme

    Like you I have memories of the ridicule of McMahon and Sneddon and it had nothing whatever to do with fear. Downer too was ridiculed out of the leadership.

    Actually ridicule is the last nail in the coffin.

    I believe that it was all over for Howard when the Chaser boys did the ridicule with fake Obama. Thee was no way back for him.

    It as if the ridicule is the acknowledgment that the person is no longer important.

  23. I reckon the Women’s Weekly photo is a stunt by either the Chaser or the LNP. The PMO has assumed someone in the office arranged it and has erroneously admitted responsibility. But it’s just like the Mal Brough menu – he didn’t know about it either, but felt obliged to admit to it.

  24. [margo kingston ‏@margokingston1 40m
    @helenmccabe, may I ask why you gave early access to PM knitting yarn to Daily Telegraph? Easy to predict they would trash the PM. Respect?]

    McCabe has denied it, but from memory she is a former Tele journo.

  25. [Dick Adams gave Schulz a glowing testimonial in the House yesterday]

    πŸ˜†

    seriously? I would’ve loved to have seen it.

  26. poroti

    I copied the recipe for Steak, Kidney and Guinness Pie yesterday and made it for tonight. Was that your recipe?

    Delicious!!

    I must confess I added a goodly teaspoonful of Hot English Mustard to the pie …..

    And some red wine to the Chef ….. πŸ˜€

  27. I’m not sure why everyone is so surprised each day that Gillard hangs on. Get your money on her to be ousted 2-3 weeks out from the election. Labor knows that they can’t stand up to public scrutiny If they oust Gillard now then the Coalition has too long to remind the public that behind the different face at the front is the same old team that they have had enough of.

  28. Doesn’t look good for a challenge tomorrow. Looks like it’s time to pull up stumps on the Ruddstoration. I suppose he wants to watch Gillard fail all the way to September 14 and be totally destroyed with a good portion of the backbenchers who betrayed him. So be it.

    I wrote to Greg Combet this week and asked him why he was so determined to lose. I also told him that if he didn’t want to be in government he didn’t deserve to be so I’d be prepared for the first time in my life to help him to lose by voting for someone else. I hope the sex party have a candidate for Charlton in the lower house.

  29. [DAILY TERROR ‏@johnnybridge2 27m
    @helenmccabe @SpudBenBean @muso1947 @abc730 @PMOPressOffice the dishonesty. The article speaks of record debt. Just throwaway Line?]

    Is this true?

  30. [two bobs worth
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 7:54 pm | PERMALINK
    Boerwar

    My Dad died in 1981 and my Mum is now 90 she has had a couple of falls in the last twelve months and two operations. She is going to rehab next Monday and we will then be place with looking at options.

    Thanks for your kind remark!]
    Don’t take my argument with you as akin to not caring about you and your family.

    Ten years ago, I helped my mum look after my grandmother while she was dying, and then a couple of years ago, I helped look after my mum’s father who was dying.

    While we don’t share your longevity with the ALP, I have to tell you my grandfather was a conscientious objector in WWII.

    We have our stories too. He jumped ship as it was sailing out of Sydney. That’s our folklore. A long-standing story of objection to sending young children to war.

    One of my uncles went into hiding to avoid conscription during the late 60s.

    Our family’s really proud of that tradition. Just as yours is with yours.

  31. Thanks alias and jv

    I appreciate your kind comments and now I am off to bed and eat some dinner.

    Thank you both :smile:!

  32. “Doesn’t look good for a challenge tomorrow. Looks like it’s time to pull up stumps on the Ruddstoration.”

    At last!! We’ve only been saying for several years that Rudd is rooted …..

  33. I take it there has been a knitting circle on PB today. I was going to buy a copy of the magazine until I found out PMJG was not on the cover. The WW can get stuffed.

  34. muttleymcgee
    [
    poroti

    I copied the recipe for Steak, Kidney and Guinness Pie yesterday and made it for tonight. Was that your recipe?
    ]
    Not me, I wish though :). It was from an old article and was supposed to be the recipe for Inspector Crabbe’s Steak and Kidney pie from the “Pie in the Sky” tv series. Gold koala stamp for you to have gone to all the effort to actually cook it. With your encouragement I might just give it a go this weekend !!

  35. Thank you Sarah I seem to have lost a post to you saying that we all do the best we can.

    I am off to bed and to eat some dinner.

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