Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

  1. Have a spare half an hour before I start the next plane trips, so had a look at PB, I cannot believe it the furore over knitting, what is Australia coming to. But I did notice one of Sean’s most stupid comments re PM s knitting while the country falls to bits Have you ever ventured outside Australia(Menzies House?) I have now spent 3 weeks in Europe and UK, if you want to see a country falling to bits go to Spain and then onto Greece. When you speak to people over
    here all they have is praise for Australia and government

    So Sean stop being stupid with your LNP slogans and thank the government for saving us from being like so many other countries and “in pieces”

    Rant over but makes me so mad how all this could be run by one man Rupert Murdoch and his minions plus the rest of MSM and it is being swallowed hook line and sinker.

    Off to catch the planes now

  2. “The country is falling to bits and Gillards doing knitting in the Womans Weekly.”

    Post the first thing comes into his head…must be reading labels on sauce bottles to get inspiration!…cannot insult such as ANY insult is below his capacity to even recognise it as an insult..like calling a dog a cur!..cannot debate because the posts are so banal or fatuous to be beyond intellectual insignificance!..the man’s an absolute fool!…an absolute cretin..a giggle in a roomful of laughter….a total jerkoff!…a pimple on the bum of a shelf-stacker at woolies!…only one thing left for such a person..recruit him to the LNP. cause!

  3. Quite right Graeme.

    Once a major public figure loses control of her/his image, it’s a slippery slope. Ridicule and mockery are very hard to wind back.

    Sadly, the image of JG knitting is probably the only political snippet millions of Australians tuned into today.

  4. alias

    My Dad and Mum – she was his only child – both joined the local branch and had some engagement in the process my Dad probably more than Mum because she had the two of us to look after.

    There were other functions that we all attended. There was always a big Labor picnic around Christmas time where we got keg Ginger Beer bags of lollies and three legged races.

    I have just bought a new computer which I am still finding my way around but I have lovely photos on a hard drive of which I will put on this computer when I learn how to do it.

    Harry Jensen Bob Heffron and others were family friends.

    When I finished my Leaving Certificate I had references from Harry Jensen as Lord Mayor Bob Heffron as Premier and Syd Einfield as Deputy Premier. I never showed one of them and I still have them in my treasures box.

    The only reference I ever showed was one from Mother Cecily who taught us in our Leaving Certificate year.

  5. [This is becoming an explosion in a pun factory, to borrow a phrase used by a Melbourne radio presenter.]

    Is that the Human Headline? Ch10 news just reported that he’s “in hot water again”, for something or other. Not really paying attention.

  6. Boerwar + CTar1

    This quote from Boerwar’s link sounds like the one. Although they leave out the not so flattering bits ๐Ÿ™‚ Apparently today there is a huge Viking ship in Kiev to “celebrate” the founding of the city by the Vikings.

    [I have seen the Rus as they came on their merchant journeys and encamped by the Itil. I have never seen more perfect physical specimens, tall as date palms, blond and ruddy; they wear neither tunics nor caftans, but the men wear a garment which covers one side of the body and leaves a hand free. Each man has an axe, a sword, and a knife, and keeps each by him at all times. ]

  7. [ Really, Iโ€™m not inclined to respond to your posts if you donโ€™t take the few seconds necessary to read my posts. By all means, pass them by, but if you wish to make a meaningful comment, at least read them. ]

    Oh, I read them. But I’ll admit I don’t understand them.

    So explain to me how a PM that knits is less effective than one who doesn’t.

  8. tbw@869: whoa, whoa! I think you are being most unjust. I wasn’t psychoanalysing or being gratuitous about your grandfather.

    But I’ll leave your grandfather out of it if you insist. You seem to be an intelligent person but you seem to have in your mind a concept of Kevin Rudd as the knight in shining arm our who will slay the dragon of the NSW Right which is as far from the truth as any belief could possibly be.

    Kevin Rudd is a “mate” of the NSW Right. Kevin Rudd as a leading Federal Labor MP would not exist without the NSW Right. They dropped him briefly in 2010 because they can’t stand to be on the wrong side of any leadership contest. But they quickly came back to him

    This is something that does not appear to be “dreamt of in your philosophy” TBW.

    Call Kevin Rudd an enemy of the Victorian Right – Psephos’s mob – if you want. But not the NSW Right. It just doesn’t hold water. The NSW Right -with their obsession with opinion polling, focus groups and spin – is Rudd’s spiritual home.

  9. Two Bob’s Worth

    ‘My Dad and Mum โ€“ she was his only child โ€“ both joined the local branch and had some engagement in the process my Dad probably more than Mum because she had the two of us to look after.’

    Thanks for sharing that with us.

  10. Meguire Bob

    Did you see QT today?

    Tony Abbott was winking, that’s how good they’re going in voter land ๐Ÿ˜

    If you care for our Julia, please tell her to step aside and save her from some very heavy rounds of tears on Sept 14/15 ๐Ÿ˜Ž

  11. Poroti

    [I saw a doco about the Vikings and they quoted some text written by an Arab explorer 13 or so centuries back who came across them somewhere in Russia.]

    Russia = Vikings I think it translates as “Boat rowers”

    All the way to Constantinople, in fact!

    Neil Oliver; The Vikings; 3 episodes. You Tube – super & mesmerising even by Neil Oliver’s series. Watch before they disappear.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhYVHlEnZPU (Vikings Who Were the Vikings Ep 1 HD)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tsGBSzFlKA (Viking Trading Empire)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkyeTP_LQDQ (Vikings End of the Viking Age Ep 3 HD)

  12. Confessions

    Derryn Hinch, to whom you refer, was sacked by 3AW, to be replaced by (former Liberal Party president, Elders IXL boss, AFL club Carlton president) John Elliott’s son Tom Elliott, a very bad move. Ratings are sliding and TE is predictably right-wing and tedious. Even gets the old duffer on for a chinwag once a week.

    The presenter I was referring to is Ross Stevenson, a very amusing chap who is a presenter on the same station in the mornings. He is quite progressive in many areas, incredibly widely read and one of the nation’s best interviewers.

  13. “Alas, Iโ€™m just old enough to remember the ridiculing of McMahon and Snedden; none of that was out of fear.”

    A tiny bit more thought and you might see the differences.

    Then again ….

  14. two bobs worth

    [The thing I do know about him he was very anti DLP and acted accordingly]
    For that alone he deserves great praise.

  15. poroti & BW

    I admit my suggestion of Kazan was a faint memory of something I read decades ago (and more likely than not long ago discredited – but Vikings in BMW X5’s heading S-E looking for a sun tan on one shoulder and an axe in the other hand has at least some cache).

  16. [two bobs worth
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 6:42 pm | PERMALINK
    Sarah

    I reckon your grandfather would turn in his grave if he thought you, of all people, didnโ€™t take advantage, or at least pass on his sentiments to other women, of all heโ€™d fought for.

    My grandfather loved his daughter and his two granddaughters to bits.

    Please do not lecture me on what he would think.]

    That wasn’t a lecture, that was a statement.

    I’m surprised you bully other people with grandiloquence of your Labor heritage when you profess “love” for a bloke (Keating) who deposed a much-loved PM , and express “hatred” for a woman (Gillard) who deposed a much-loved PM.

    Imagine having the same argument when Hawke was deposed by Keating, and you were on Keating’s side? That time round
    you’d be rooting for Keating, not Hawke.

    But you keep telling us we’re stupid for rooting for Gillard, not Rudd.

    And your only reason is you like Rudd.

    Pathetic.

  17. mari

    ‘Thanks Boerwar off to see th 1/2 scottish/ aussie grandsons now Iceland 10 days time’

    Pls tell those vikings that the boer wars are not happy.

  18. Let’s face it.
    Those of us here who have been lamenting the ALPs sad and sorry political numbscullery over the past 3 years and have been called names and generally abused for doing so have been right all along.

    Unfortunately, when shook hands with Monkey and said ‘game on’ she didn’t realise her team just weren’t up to the match.
    The killers in the coalition have run rings around the ALP in the ‘game’ of politics.

    It’s going to be slaughter-central on Sept.14.
    Some of us have seen it coming for years now.

    The ‘narrowing’ we were told would come. Hasn’t.
    And won’t.

    Monkey wins.

    Fuckin’ unbelievable.

  19. alias:

    Very interesting that 3AW, which I always associate as being a right-wing reactionary station, has a progressive voice!

  20. “Those of us here who have been lamenting the ALPs sad and sorry political numbscullery over the past 3 years and have been called names and generally abused for doing so have been right all along.”

    Where’s your evidence?

  21. She should stick with the WW stylists – they did a great job.

    There must be some way to get them on the payroll as consultants or something.

  22. Boerar will do that for you I am still trying to find the rest of the treasure the Viking said they had left after plundering a chief’s burial site on The Orkneys ๐Ÿ˜€

  23. There would have been no headlines about the PM refusing to do an interview with the Weekly. It could easily have been passed off as her being too busy.

    And BTW the whole idiocy is not about the media, it’s about the PM’s advisers being ridiculously stupid and not taking control of her image. It’s the same problem she had during the election. I wish she would find somebody competent to handle her PR.

    There is nothing wrong with knitting. A surprising number of young, professional women of my acquaintance knit. In fact I think crafty stuff is back in fashion.

    I prefer crochet!

  24. meher

    [But Iโ€™ll leave your grandfather out of it if you insist. You seem to be an intelligent person but you seem to have in your mind a concept of Kevin Rudd as the knight in shining arm our who will slay the dragon of the NSW Right which is as far from the truth as any belief could possibly be.]

    I see no one as a “knight in shining armour”. I have a preference on who should take the party to the next election I see it as righting a wrong which cost the ALP plenty.

    You disagree with my opinion and that is fine not everybody thinks the same. That does not mean that anyone who does not agree with either you nor I is wrong it is simply an opinion.

    I have a couple of people in Parliament who I really admire and among them is neither Gillard nor Rudd.

  25. “MM means that question ironically and rhetorically of course.”

    You’re flat out trying to make your own comments cogent.

    As usual Rabbott and his Reteads’ fanbois have nothing but polls and bullshit to fall back on.

    Or really serious stuff like “What colour was the wool?”

    How about some non-poll evidence to back the statement, RorLess?

  26. Meanwhile, not one, not one MSM journalist or editor has noticed that we are not really pulling out of the Afghanistan War at all: we are leaving 200 advisers and back up troops in Afghanistan.

    It is going to be interesting to see what Abbott does when confronted with the ever-increasing risks to those 200 as the Taliban re-take the country. Will he put the entire ADF into Afghanistan in other to keeping running the course? He will be on his ownsome because the US will be long-gooorn from another lost war. Or will Abbott cut and run?

    The ADF will be telling him to cut and run, IMHO.

    Maybe Abbott will go over personally, don a mine clearance suit and ‘man’ a 50 cal to stem the terrorist tide? Sure, sure.

  27. “It is going to be interesting to see what Abbott does when confronted with the ever-increasing risks to those 200 as the Taliban re-take the country. Will he put the entire ADF into Afghanistan in other to keeping running the course? He will be on his ownsome because the US will be long-gooorn from another lost war. Or will Abbott cut and run?”

    No, he will come out with “shit happens”, which will be lauded and praised by all the idiots, but it is all he is capable of.

    There’s nothing else.

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