Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

  1. confessions

    For some reason PA was apoplectic over the Rudd removal. I heard his LNL’s after Rudd got dropped. Being an ABH , Anyone But Howard , I was an early Rudd adopter but could not understand the source, still don’t, of Phil’s anger. For a start a preachy god botherer had been replaced by a fellow atheist.

  2. [At least Oakes had a crack at the MSM for focusing on the knitting rubbish.]

    As I’ve said, the anger and outrage is more at Gillard being Gillard than anything she actually did. It was actually quite innocuous and typical for a politician who’d like the publicity. If public opinion against Gillard wasn’t so strong or she was actually well liked, then it wouldn’t be a problem.

  3. “That is why it matters that Gillard is surrounded by clowns who are making her into a national laughing stock.”

    Only I the eyes of superficial dolts.

    If the cap fits …..

  4. alias
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 7:07 pm | PERMALINK
    B
    Julia Gillard always has a massive image problem. Her approval/disapproval ratings bear this out in poll after poll after poll.

    ———

    This what makes people alias a laughing stock

    using fantasy media propaganda driven polls as evidence

    as the old saying goes

    sorry alias but you would be laughed out of court

  5. alias

    Got some knitting wool caught between your teeth? You poor, pathetic, hapless reactionary hoplite.

    You are going to spend the next three years making excuses for Abbott’s policy failures and you fret about knitting.

  6. [ But Boerwar, the knitting is, in fact, relevant to the ever dimmer prospects of keeping Abbott out of the PM’s position. ]

    Are you serious? We must not have a PM who can knit because you think it reduces her effectiveness against Abbott?

    Ummmm. How, exactly?

  7. You misread me entirely Boerwar.

    I will spend the next three years grieving over the fact that we Australians need not have been subjected to Abbott’s disastrous policies had commonsense prevailed in the face of the present catastrophic standing in the polls for Labor.

  8. poroti@854: PA’s love for KR is more telling evidence against the proposition “opposites attract”. Two of the most puffed-up narcissistic ignoramuses on the planet.

    It’s good to know that Australia is still at the forefront in some respects.

  9. Player One

    Really, I’m not inclined to respond to your posts if you don’t take the few seconds necessary to read my posts. By all means, pass them by, but if you wish to make a meaningful comment, at least read them.

  10. “She is loathed by a large segment of the community (and not only men) and is the only reason a despised moron like Abbott is going to coast into government in a landslide on September 14.”

    Do you go “BAAAA BAAAA” when you follow the rest of the sheep? When you follow the rubbish that is the NEWS poll? The propaganda driven by media confected polls?

    The “She is loathed” is only the reflected crap from the rancid media. Those who have actually met her say otherwise, as do those who work with her.

    And you believe it.

    You would rather have a clod like Rabbott. And his left-over Howard Retreads.

    Such perception, such intelligence.

  11. Like many a sociopath, Rudd can be charismatic face-to-face, particularly in a mutual admiration society type situation as per his relationship with Adams. Adams fancied himself as an important arts-policy player who had an ‘in’ with a charismatic and visionary prime minister. Adams appears not to have had the vaguest inkling that Rudd was bogged to the chassis and out of petrol.

    Adams’ response to Rudd’s failure to stand in a leadership stoush says volumes for just how out of touch Adams was, and apparently, remains.

  12. poroti:

    At the time I could empathise with PA, but from memory could never quite understand why it was worth getting so outraged about.

  13. meher

    Please! Nothing should give me “cause” about anything at all.

    The thing I do know about him he was very anti DLP and acted accordingly.

    I don’t need you to psychoanalyse my grandfather thank you very much.

    He died peacefully and he is at rest. Gratuitous comments are not welcome.

  14. 😆 My girlfriend just asked me what could I tell her about politics being as brief but as informative as possible before she could fall asleep.

    I said the following:

    Politics is a battle of what government provides to society and who pays for it.

    Liberal represents the rich, those that can pay for their own needs; whereas Labor represents the rest… “yeah right” off she toddled.

    I was going to add that, it was amazing the way politics is covered by the rich to get the rest to vote for them, but didn’t get the chance 😐

    Still, Abbott makes her skin crawl – the looks of him 😀

  15. Statement from the PMOs office about POPgate

    You guess who the fraud/s is/are

    [The PMO agreed to a wide-ranging interview. Caroline Overington interviewed the PM for one hour on her achievements, leadership, misogyny, knitting, the Royal Family, Kyle Sandilands.

    Not a word of this interview appeared in the article published in Australian Women’s Weekly.]

    http://pmopressoffice.wordpress.com/2013/06/25/background-on-womens-weekly-article-and-photo-shoot/

  16. Shaun

    [The country is falling to bits and Gillards doing knitting in the Womans Weekly]

    If you have a dog kennel you should go and hide in it for the next few years.

    Talk about hysterical.

  17. TBW

    I’m rather fascinated by political families. Did your mother/father (the parent who was a child of the former member for Kingsford Smith) also play an active role in politics? Or did the interest skip a generation to you?

  18. Boerwar

    [then settle parts of our Dutch province. ]
    I saw a doco about the Vikings and they quoted some text written by an Arab explorer 13 or so centuries back who came across them somewhere in Russia. He said that they were the most perfect specimens of human form he had ever seen but went on to say that they were also a bunch of drunkard violent ruffians with a total lack of couth and manners. They have form 🙂

  19. confessions

    [At the time I could empathise with PA, but from memory could never quite understand why it was worth getting so outraged about]
    Agree and Agree.

  20. Gaffhook

    its over for news ltd/abbott coalition chances and newsltd and pro coalition media knows it

    only chance is for people to remain gullible zombies to the media agenda polls which are crap rather than anywhere near reality

  21. Today’s Mumble:

    [JULIA Gillard received an unexpected gift last night, on coast-to-coast television.
    That was Graham Richardson appearing on ABC’s Q&A and employing strong language to urge caucus to change leaders to Kevin Rudd this week.

    The former ALP powerbroker seems to believe today’s Labor MPs regard him as an elder statesman and value his battle-hardened counsel.

    But having Richo in your corner, publicly, is probably a net negative.]

    Richo reeks of everything that is wrong with former MPs bagging the party in order to earn a quid. Who can forget his role in the events of 3 years ago? Just appalling judgement.

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_timing_thing/

  22. two bobs worth…mate they respect nobody or thing that isn’t 100% Gillard lover supporter…..else they will slag you ….and your relatives if necessary.

  23. poroti

    ‘BW

    Unresolved, I believe.

    Finger in the dyke stuff.’

    They borrowed the whole damn dyke and bought themselves Range Rovers with it. The Dutch want it back – in euros and not in Range Rovers.

  24. [Like many a sociopath, Rudd]

    I mean after a first line like that do you think anybody is going to believe the rest of what you write would nothing more than shit?

  25. Someone said that there was a longboat with our family name on it. But it might be a family fib. We certainly got the dratted Dhupuytron’s gene.

  26. I thought the PM looked fabulous in the WW spread and the knitting is a lovely idea.

    The Sleeping Bag stunt was typical Rudd dross – does he really think poncing around like that is good PR?

  27. Confessions, DisplayName

    This is becoming an explosion in a pun factory, to borrow a phrase used by a Melbourne radio presenter.

  28. ” “It’s hard to believe some knitting needles, a ball of fluff and the PM could excite so much gnashing of teeth unless the teeth gnashers were afraid of her.”
    They are shit scared of her. As Rabbott said “She won’t lay down and die”, and nor she will.”

    Alas, I’m just old enough to remember the ridiculing of McMahon and Snedden; none of that was out of fear.

    The PM’s problem is that so much of this comes not from supporters of her opponents (Howard faced plenty of that), but that so much comes from Labor’s traditional bases.

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