Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

  1. BB
    “It’s hard to believe some knitting needles, a ball of fluff and the PM could excite so much gnashing of teeth unless the teeth gnashers were afraid of her.”

    They are shit scared of her. As Rabbott said “She won’t lay down and die”, and nor she will.

    All the Rudd rubbish, all the Union nonsense, everything they have thrown at her has failed miserably, and all they have left is their fatuous confected polls which they, like sheep, all follow.

    They have nothing except the propaganda from an embittered cuckold, who renounced his Australian citizenship, who has form, whose lieutenants are on trial for lowlife deeds such as hacking the voicemail of a dead teenager, and who has been described in court as ‘not a fit person’, a perfect description.

    And still the fools and knaves believe, even defend their beliefs, not in terms of the excellence of their protagonist but only the denigration of a remarkable person who has delivered tremendous benefits for this country.

    They want her replaced with a self-confessed ‘grog monster’ who drinks shandies because he can’t control himself, who missed two defining votes, one because he was ‘not pissed’, asleep in his office after several bottles of wine while five votes went through in his not- drunken absence, and the other because he was running away, which he is very good at, to the UK to suckhole to his Tory mates, most of whom are better than he is but not much.

    Such a trustworthy person that he has admitted, even volunteered, that his word cannot be trusted even when on paper and signed, and has demonstrated that untrustworthiness. A plotter and conniver who has done his best to disrupt, denigrate and vilify this country for his own selfish ends, all the while rorting expenses the better to support his massive mortgage, all the while chanting “Stop the waste”.

    Anyone who supports this clod in any way has a lot to answer for, and not supporting the present Government definitely qualifies and will be eligible for their “I, stupidly voted for Stupid” badges after September 14th.

  2. Sarah

    [I reckon your grandfather would turn in his grave if he thought you, of all people, didn’t take advantage, or at least pass on his sentiments to other women, of all he’d fought for.]

    My grandfather loved his daughter and his two granddaughters to bits.

    Please do not lecture me on what he would think.

  3. Wow . What a vote of confidence in our glorious victory in Afghanistan. 105 Afghan diplomats go out…………. 5 come back.

    [Exodus: Afghan Diplomats Defect as Western Withdrawal Nears

    A total of 105 Afghani diplomats were meant to report for duty at the Foreign Ministry in Kabul on Saturday. They were being rotated out of their foreign postings as scheduled, and it was time to return to headquarters. Yet just five of them have resurfaced]
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/diplomats-defect-as-western-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-nears-a-907601.html

  4. I have a problem with anybody here who thinks of factions as just right and left – especially those who believe that everybody on the Right is an ultraconservative, Catholic fundamentalist who gets their marching orders from a faction boss and that Everybody from the left is a progressive minded reformist.

    It’s nowhere near as simple as that.

  5. [I observe that the member for Kingsford-Smith from 1955 to 1969 had previously served as member for Watson from 1949.]

    That is so. But only Bowen has held it for 20 years (1969-90). So people should check their facts before saying I am wrong.

  6. Psephos: I think we are talking Daniel Curtin, who was member for Watson for 6 years and then K-S for 14.

    According to Wikipedia, he was an official of the Boilermakers’, the union whose main to claim was that it produce Jack Egerton: the Labor rat who accepted a knighthood from Bjelke Joh

  7. Psephos

    I am his granddaughter and I think I know exactly when he was in Parliament.

    I have photos of us down in Canberra with him in 1953.

    I understand that you think you are omniscient but you are wrong.

    Whether he was right wing or not I would not know and simply don’t care. That doesn’t mean anything to me

    We loved him to bits!

  8. Evening all.

    Loving the unhingement over knittingate. 😆 Anyone would think the Prime Minister was the first person to ever pick up a pair of knitting needles.

    There have been some gems on twitter as well as here.

  9. The PMs knitting spread in the WW leaves me in no doubt that Gillard, or those advising her, have no insight into what people really think is important.

    As various news reports revealed tonight, the shoot wasn’t even at The Lodge or Kirribilli House. It was in a studio, complete with a fan blowing on her to give the illusion of the windswept hair look.

    You are becoming an embarrassment, Prime Minister.

  10. OK, so he has been convicted of having sex with an under age prostitute, has been convicted of tax fraud, has been banned from politics for life by the courts for some other bad thing, but he is still on a powerful factor in Italian politics.

    Gillard does some knitting and the MSM commentariat goes apeshit.

  11. [I am his granddaughter and I think I know exactly when he was in Parliament.]

    If you think he was member for Kingsford-Smith for 20 years, then no, you don’t. He was member for Watson 1949-55 and for Kingsford-Smith 1955-69.

  12. William

    You are correct and I may have made the mistake of not saying that he was originally the Member for Watson before the boundaries were changed.

    You are correct he was in the Federal Parliament from 1949 to 1969.

  13. It shows why news ltd/abbott coalition in desperation of a leadership change

    no change in labor leadership news ltd/abbott coalition will end after 2013 election

    Abbott will likely be out of politics

  14. Very interesting TBW

    It sounds as though you are richly steeped in matters political and Labor. I envy you really. Your life must have offered plenty of insights into the way Canberra works.

  15. feeney

    [have no insight into what people really think is important.]

    And you, of course, know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

    Shallow.

  16. Psephos

    How many years between 1949-1969 – I think you will find they account for twenty years.

    You are just being pedantic for your own purposes.

  17. For those playing “Where’s Snowden ?” this could be the answer. Shame about the plane chocka with journos on their way to Havana 🙂

    [Pirate Party Norway: – Snowden Passed Through Norway to Iceland

    Organization Pirate Party Norway claims that spy accused Edward Snowden landed at Oslo Gardermon airport last night.

    The reason is that this is probably the quickest and easiest way to fly to Iceland, says Tale Østrådal from the Pirate Party to TV2 Norway

    Øsrådal also said that Pirate Party in Iceland confirmed Snowden’s stay in the country. Iceland has become a haven for people like him, almost a “Pirate Island,” says Østrådal.
    ]
    http://www.tnp.no/norway/panorama/3802-pirate-party-norway-snowden-passed-through-norway-to-iceland

  18. PB might be interested in this exchange.
    [‏@PhillipAdams_1 29m
    Overheard Hazel’s service.Silver Bodgie accusing Rudd of being ‘egotistical’.Hilarious.For Bob we need to coin a differenf word.Egotesticle]

    Jan Mahyuddin ‏@j4gypsy 27m
    @PhillipAdams_1 Phillip, too soon mate, post the Hazel service. Seriously, far too soon.

    Phillip Adams ‏@PhillipAdams_1 11m
    @j4gypsy Not at all.most public of political events.Note warm welcome for JG-chill for KR.those who feel they own the party flexing muscles ]

  19. [william field ‏@williamf51 10m
    If you don’t like the Labor team @KRuddMP take a leaf out of Clive Palmer’s book, start your own party & see how you go. #auspol]

    Actually I think he should take a leaf out of Campbell Newman’s book and stand in Ashgrove as the leader of the Qld Labor party, just not in Qld parliament yet. 🙂

  20. “In reference to the earlier post, my alternative knitting photo of dressing smart-casual and knitting a footy scarf for a sick kid should be very basic PR for the so-called professionals around her. Apparently not. It really is very worrying. ”

    So, once again you demonstrate the breadth of your considerable intellect and the depth of your thought processes in that the fact that WHAT the PM is knitting is the problem!

    Such perception! Such judgement!

    Have a look at Rabbott’s expenses that show clearly that his “Stop the Waste”, like everything else he says and does is rubbish. The ‘Million Dollar Man” is unquestioned while what the PM is knitting takes precedence.

    Dog help us!

    That you believe.

  21. [OzPol Tragic

    Mick Aston on Time Team repeat Buckmill (ABC).

    Just watching him digging out a crashed Spitfire on Mordortel]

    🙂 Hopefully Channel 4 will produce a complete set of all 20 years’ programmes. Around Christmas, I found almost all on Youtube etc; in Feb most except the Specials disappeared. Our Texan guest had studied Ancient History, so we had her hooked in a few days.

    Probably vies with Neil Oliver’s series as THE most addictive “reality” TV. Everyone we know watched it.

  22. [ In PR terms, Boerwar, I suspect Abbott’s budgie smuggler efforts are probably a net positive

    ….

    The knitting pic on the other hand is just beyond ridiculous. ]

    You’re not exactly covering yourself with glory on this one, alias. I’d stop digging if I were you.

    However, it is interesting to see just how much bandwidth is wasted on SkippyGate. It highlights just how desperate the Gillard haters are getting.

    Oooh! She knits! Oooh! It’s a staged photo!

    Well, possums, at least she can actually knit. On the other hand, let me remind you all of this little gem:

    Now, hands up how many of you think Abbott is really a bomb disposal expert?

  23. alias:

    One thing we can say with almost absolute certainty is that tomorrow our media, those on twitter and anti Labor commenters here will be foaming and frothing over something else.

  24. The media should be asking abbott why is he the leader of the liberal party

    He can not control them at all ,

    Abbott’s own words

    if you cant lead your own party how can you lead the country

  25. lizzie:

    Phillip Adams reportedly resigned his ALP membership after the Member for Griffith was removed from the leadership.

  26. Boerwar

    [
    Snowden? Iceland?
    ]
    Snowden the guy who revealed that the US is doing surveillance at levels that the Stasi would have died for.Vote 1 Iceland. They jailed their banksters and said feck making the public bail out private enterprise.

  27. alias

    You want to know what my sister and I loved him most for when we were little girls?

    He used to do meetings with his constituency on Mondays. First at the Commonwealth Offices at Martin Place in the morning and then at Maroubra Junction and Randwick in the afternoon.

    He would come to our place in Maroubra to have lunch in between and bring us both an ice cream cone from the corner shop.

    We would be hanging over the fence watching him bring bring the ice cream to us with great anticipation and when we got them we were thrilled to bits.

    He loved us and we loved him we would not have had a clue nor cared less what a faction was.

  28. Are the reactionaries still fretting about a bit of knitting in their hubris soup?

    There will come a day when they look back fondly to a time when all they had to do was fulminate about trivia and it seemed to mean something real and significant.

    Hey hubristas, the real world awaits you, utterly impervious to three word slogans.

  29. MTBW:

    I think you owe Psephos an apology. You accused him of being wrong, and in a somewhat sneering fashion:

    [I understand that you think you are omniscient but you are wrong.]

    When in fact it was you who was wrong, not Psephos.

  30. poroti
    Take one of the vikings was to pillage, rape and then settle parts of our Dutch province. Take two, the vikings borrowed lots of money from the Dutch and now the vikings don’t want to pay it back. Pillaging with politeness. Unresolved, I believe.

  31. But Boerwar, the knitting is, in fact, relevant to the ever dimmer prospects of keeping Abbott out of the PM’s position.

    Julia Gillard always has a massive image problem. Her approval/disapproval ratings bear this out in poll after poll after poll.

    So the last thing she needs is another goof-up by the folks who are supposed to be advising her on what might just help repair this damaged image in the forlorn hope that such a repair job, might, just might, be enough to give her a fighting chance in the election.

    I don’t like the fact that imagery and perception matters so much in modern politics, and neither do you, I’m sure.

    But it does. So short of getting the ADF onside to stage a revolution, we have to work with this reality.

    That is why it matters that Gillard is surrounded by clowns who are making her into a national laughing stock.

  32. tbw@812: fair enough, I’m sure he was a great bloke. Also, it’s fair enough that you’re not aware of his having a strong factional allegiance. In those days, the Labor “Right” was more of a tendency than an organized faction: it was only the Left that was tightly organized.

    But the fact that, if he was in Parliament now, he would be a member of the Right faction should give you cause to think that the internal affairs of the ALP are rather more complex than your “everything that’s wrong is the fault of the nasty Right faction”. ATM, all but a small handful of the NSW Right MPs and Senators -including all their most untalented time-servers, are 100% behind Rudd: the man they and their fat cat PR man Bruce Hawker brought to the fore back in the early 2000s. The highly organized hard left faction is right behind him too.

    Meanwhile, some of the most impressive “soft left” people – in particular Tanya and Penny -are behind Julia.

    It just ain’t as simple as you claim.

  33. [They are shit scared of her]

    Muttley

    If you’re talking about her Labor colleagues you may well be right. She seems to be the only one amongst them with any balls. If you’re talking about the opposition you are dead wrong. She is the greatest electoral asset they have and they know it. What they are really scared of is a Rudd return, which could really upset the applecart for them.(but which is not going to happen).

    I like JG and think she has done a very good job under very difficult circumstances. What’s more, I don’t think anyone else on the government side could have done it. But this hero worship that some here seem to have for her is blinding them to some very unpalatable truths. She is loathed by a large segment of the community (and not only men) and is the only reason a despised moron like Abbott is going to coast into government in a landslide on September 14. For many voters it’s a choice between two people they cannot stand and the one they are choosing is Abbott. If there was any fairness in politics it wouldn’t be that way, but it is. And those of us without stars in our eyes can clearly see it.

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