Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

  1. R2D-

    You’ve changed back…are you no longer despicable?

    who would have thought that Labor could lower the bar to personal attacks…unlike your boys

  2. A response to Judith Sloan’s opinion of childcare workers.
    [Sloan has appeared to have just noticed the Federal Government’s implementation of the National Quality Framework for ECEC. It did only commence in January 2012, so to have noticed its existence by June 2013 is a credit to Sloan and her undoubtedly first-class tertiary education.

    Sloan’s incisive analysis of the sector and its “dim-witted” Minister, Kate Ellis (possibly the worst insult: direct comparison to a politician), identifies rising costs and issues around the freezing of the Child Care Rebate.

    But she holds off on the truly terrifying revelations until the next paragraph. Children of one of her relatives, she informs us (presumably visibly shuddering as she types) are sent home with a weekly newsletter, informing the innocent and fear-stricken families of what has happened at the centre that week.]
    http://liammcnicholas.com/2013/06/23/attention-fellow-stalinists-were-rumbled/

  3. Sean Tisme

    [““Freezing cold here in Queensland… can someone turn that Global Warming on.. thanks”]
    Give the PM a ring and she will knit you one of these 🙂

  4. [two bobs worth
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 5:54 pm | PERMALINK
    Sarah

    Do you belong to the ALP?

    I ask that because if you did you would know that the ALP has many and varied fundraisers and often a Minister or indeed the Leader of the Party be it State or Federal will be asked to be at the functions as Guest Speaker to draw the crowd.

    And as the should they mingle among the crowd.

    I have a photo of me with Bob Hawke on the stage of the Revesby Workers Club where he presented me with a box of flowers for organising the function.

    Your attack on bemused for saying that he had met a number of politicians at functions was over the top.]

    Why don’t you grow up, twb?

    This is a new era. I grew up on a diet of Hawke and Keating. They were demi-gods to me.

    But then I found my voice. Started asking questions, pertinent ones.

    Like, why don’t you practice what you preach?

    Huh?

    You old girls think we had to take being belittled and besmirched and thrust aside for a younger model, without uttering so much as a ‘I’ll take that as a comment.’

    You want us to take the “shit” you were never able to.

    Well, piss off, two bobs, we’re not going to take it lying down.

    And we bloody well like it that a fenmale PM is not taking it lying down.

  5. Kijnkajou

    My grandfather was the Member for Kingsford Smith for twenty years and I have been working on polling booths since I was in my late teens.

    I have worked for three Politicians two State and one Federal and run dozens of campaigns.

    If that is what you call Liberal then carry on with thinking that way.

  6. man keeps glass eye in glass of water next to bed. Inadvertantly swallows it. Goes to doc with pain in ask. Doc says let me just check….you don’t trust me do you?

  7. Be fair to John McTernan, folks. Remember, he said the decision to let JG do the knitting story was a “no brainer”.

    So it was very suited to his skill set, wasn’t it?

  8. Hi Adam

    Speaking of more important things – do you have any information/ sources on Santamaria’s relationship witj Ngo Dinh Diem, in particular, when Diem went to Raheen in 1957?

  9. 2bw…there there…you must be distressed by all this then.
    I’ve done none of that but the ALP has always been the least worst option in Australian politics to me whatever their negatives ( and there’s lots)

    Maybe a dose of the Abbott salts is what’s needed for progressive politics to gets its collective shit together.

  10. As for the referendum, I don’t really want to vote Yes but will have to because all the worst reactionaries are voting No.

  11. Watching the Drum ATM. If Peter Reith says “quite frankly” one more time, I’m going to head on down to the Melbourne ABC studios and tickle him to death with a duck feather.

    BTW. Verity Firth has certainly been doing the right stuff at the gym lately: she looks in great shape post-politics!!

  12. The poor old Blue Tie Mob, harried from pillar to gatepost in the culture wars. Will they be able to survive until Abbott ushers in the Budgie Smuggler Paradise?

    The Blue Tie Mob have scarcely had time to come their senses after the Prime Minister’s gross insult to their blue penis substitutes. Now they have now fallen apart at her knitting.

    Sensitive souls.

  13. Yes, I will have trouble sleeping at night after displaying such incompetence. Well a couple of therapy sessions should help me recover.

    I hope Julia Gillard’s advisors can recover as quickly!

  14. mb

    To be perfectly honest, and quite frankly, I reckon that the reactionaries on this Blog use these lies all the time. The more they use them, the more you know that they are lying.

  15. two bobs worth

    you should be out there celebrating a PM who refuses to lie down and die.

    A PM who is not jockeying for favour, but working for the advancement of every child in this country, through education.

    A woman who has at her heart the health of every man, woman and child in this country.

    A woman who wants to see every man, woman and child who works at the same job, get the same pay.

    A woman who wants to see the same educational opportunity available to every man, woman and child.

    A woman who wants to see the same opportunity for rehab for every man, woman and child.

    Et Cetera.

    And all you can do is ask if I want for my leader, someone who has the time to knit?

    You should be so lucky.

    Instead of celebrating Paul Keating (who deposed one of Australia’s most loved PMs) and undermining the current leadership because you’re in love with Rudd. Pathetic doesn’t even begin to describe your wanton disregard of Gillard.

  16. [As for the referendum, I don’t really want to vote Yes but will have to because all the worst reactionaries are voting No.]

    Vote however you want to vote, regardless of how everybody else is voting. It’s a referendum, not an election.

  17. [Absolutely none I was never party to the shenanigans of the disgusting Right!]

    The only person who was member for Kingsford-Smith for 20 years was Lionel Bowen. If he was your grandfather, he was a great Labor man. But he was also a life-long member of the NSW Right.

  18. Not so long ago, some Labor people were calling for the Greens to be put beneath the Liberals on HTVs. Forget it.

    After the Sept 14 cataclysm, all parties of the Left will have to amalgamate if they are to have any future at all.

  19. In PR terms, Boerwar, I suspect Abbott’s budgie smuggler efforts are probably a net positive even though they look utterly ridiculous to you and me.

    For many ordinary punters, his athleticism probably conveys fitness, energy, positivity and good health. Having said that, the Abbott spin team seem to have decided to ration those budgie smuggler images to a fair degree since the time they were everywhere.

    The knitting pic on the other hand is just beyond ridiculous. As I said earlier (and excuse me if I quote myself), there is nothing wrong with knitting per se. It’s just this photo itself and the notion of knitting something for the royal child. Again, as I said earlier, by all means get a shot of JG at home, relaxed with a glass of red and a good book on the coffee table knitting a Western Bulldogs scarf for a sick kid.

    That’s a winner right there.

  20. mb

    ‘BW@780: how do you know Tony Abbott is lying?’

    Apply the Whyalla test: If Abbott’s lips are moving, the default setting is that he is lying.

  21. [two bobs worth
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 6:20 pm | PERMALINK
    Sarah

    You have such a lovely way with words.]
    And you have no argument.

    I reckon your grandfather would turn in his grave if he thought you, of all people, didn’t take advantage, or at least pass on his sentiments to other women, of all he’d fought for.

  22. Sarah

    I understand your frustration but I am not in to gender politics never have been.

    We need to win government that is the aim of the game and a scant look at all of the polls will tell you that the current PM is not able to do that.

  23. [he was a great Labor man.]

    And someone who a handshake deal could be done with and honoured.

    Even the other side didn’t doubt his word once given.

  24. adrian, if I make a mistake (which I will at some point) and you happen to be the person to point it out, I’m just going to accept it and move on without all these assumptions about your motives. You’ll be doing me a favour, albeit not one of much significance. Thank you in advance.

    Oh, and unlike you I probably will have trouble sleeping, because I’m the kind of person who worries unnecessarily over little things :P.

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