Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

  1. ABC news at 7

    [Schtang ‏@Schtang 7h

    Breaking: A journo told a journo who told a journo who told another #newsltd journo that Combet told Rudd he wants to be treasurer #auspol]

  2. [Yeah, I’m one of the herd. I’m unique in that way!]

    Laugh all you like, but you laugh at yourself.

    You now can’t put up a viable reason for change of leader, of party, except for hip-pocket nerve stuff.

    How original.

    You can’t breathe life into principle.

  3. [OPT #659 awesome.

    Yes most Hornsby’s are HO]

    Bad news together, OH & (my) Wee Bro!

    BTW, OH came home, very sheepishly, from a Train Show (?2009) with a complete set of Sir Ralph Wedgwood trains in the wooden box (+ usual cardboard boxes). V Expensive.
    You tube Hornby Ho/00 Sir Ralph Wedgewood In it’s Blue, Green and Black Liveries http://www.youtube.co/watch?v=hapyUD9_Q1Y

    I’ve not 1, not 2 but 3 sets of Flying Scotsman Presentation Sets, still mint in corrugated cardboard outer boxs & I’d swear only one ever has ever been taken out & probably only once.

    Definitely one of Peter Pan’s Lost Boys 😉 But so was my father, at heart.

  4. ‘If so why did the Prime Minister’s office allow a known pro liberal journalist to conduct the interview?’

    Surely you’ve worked it out by now?
    As far as capital P politics, the current manifestation of the federal ALP wouldn’t know it’s arse from a hole in the ground (apologies to Randy Newman) Its why they’re in the mess there in (apologies to Paul McCartney)

    The ALP don’t do politics anymore.

  5. Lizzie, thanks for the information. Why did the PMO let the Women’s Weekly have so much control over the article? That’s really poor judgement and surely basic PR would be for the PMO to have a large amount of control of published features?

    Julia Gillard is the Prime Minister for goodness sake. Surely she should have as much control over a feature as a movie or TV star?

    The people who got her into this should be replaced.

  6. Sarah

    Much as you may wish to hate him Richo last night was spot on.

    He admitted to HELPING put Gillard in but he basically said he had never seen such a sequence of mistakes. He said he got it wrong. Has some common sense

  7. PM’s office obviously being run by amateurs. Worse than amateurs. I’ll bet Alistair Campbell, who is in Australia at present, just about choked on his morning coffee when he saw that knitting photo.

  8. Sarah

    Do you belong to the ALP?

    I ask that because if you did you would know that the ALP has many and varied fundraisers and often a Minister or indeed the Leader of the Party be it State or Federal will be asked to be at the functions as Guest Speaker to draw the crowd.

    And as the should they mingle among the crowd.

    I have a photo of me with Bob Hawke on the stage of the Revesby Workers Club where he presented me with a box of flowers for organising the function.

    Your attack on bemused for saying that he had met a number of politicians at functions was over the top.

  9. BW

    [Perhaps it was just the papal proximity.]

    All pervading in and around Rome but fades with distance.

    Without wanting to be deep ‘il Risorgimento’ is still a ‘thing’ in Italian politics.

  10. @DTR/717

    Well they are not doing any bloody good job of it, if they were sabateuring it.

    Can’t even get rid of a sitting PM.

  11. ‘Oh and the PMO should have refused to let Ms Overington do the interview.’

    You bet.
    You’d think they’d have learnt something in all these years
    (apologies to John Lennon)

  12. two bobs worth

    [You may criticise Richo for many things as I do but he knows how to do numbers.]
    Only Swiss bank account numbers these days.

  13. DTT

    I wonder the same thing. It so bad, so ill-judged that sinister motives seem like the only sensible explanation.

    In reference to the earlier post, my alternative knitting photo of dressing smart-casual and knitting a footy scarf for a sick kid should be very basic PR for the so-called professionals around her. Apparently not. It really is very worrying.

    What next?

  14. [You may criticise Richo for many things as I do but he knows how to do numbers.]

    Obviously he’s forgotten this or his previous predictions wouldn’t have been wrong.

  15. As a matter of fact I think I have met at many of the cabinet or former cabinet.

    It is not that strange Sarah

    I have met Faulkner, Rudd, Macklin, Albo,Emerson, Ferguson L, Tanner and sat at the same table as Hawke though not sure I spoke to him

  16. [What next?]

    How about a vigorous, policy-driven democratic debate? A proper contest of ideas and policies?

    Or are these sooo last Saturday’s issues?

  17. [daretotread
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 5:44 pm | PERMALINK
    Alias

    Apply for a job as Gillard’s PR person

    Spot on. If she had been knitting a scarf for a sick kid, dressed in her jeans and a sensible book nearby it would have been a good PR but looking like my grandma knitting for a royal bub, yuck, yuckity, yuck..And the dog OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH]

    What, you didn’t like/love/appreciate your sister?
    You didn’t like/love/appreciate your mother?
    You didn’t like/love/appreciate your grandmother?
    You didn’t like/love/appreciate the offspring of your family.

    WTF is wrong with you?

    You profess to be a Labor supporter, yet you despise Gillard for making any reference to those you care about, and making any reference to those she cares about, and making any reference to those she has to care about.

    I’ll tell you what.

    I’m bloody over you.

    We gave you support when you complained incessantly about your “friend” who had a shop, who wasn’t able to get solar power, who was going to “pay through the nose” because of your fridges.

    When we told you your shopkeeper friend was going to be able to pass on any fee incursion, you wouldn’t have it.

    You threatened to choked the airwaves with your experience. Yet, you never convinced anybody. You suddenly stopped blaming the “carbon tax” and started blaming Gillard for every bad business decision you made.

    You know what, vote for Kevin Rudd – he’s just the same as you, a person who blames everyone else for their failure to make good.

    Wallow in it.

  18. ““Freezing cold here in Queensland… can someone turn that Global Warming on.. thanks”

    Mr ‘Tisme. Are you from the equator? Brissy was 19 today, 1 below average.
    Perhaps you were ‘spoilt’ by the hot autumn (upwards of 4 above most days).

    If you are soft, I will ask Miss Gillard to knit you something to cuddle.

  19. poroti

    Clever and in some parts of his life true.

    Let me give you an example:

    In the 1995 State Election I was working in an inner city seat at Glebe.

    He called into the office one day and in the week before the election and asked what we had done and how it was going. Didn’t say much but just took it in.

    Albo called me on the Friday before the election and said wtte if you can win this seat Labor will win Government.

    At about 6.30 pm on the Saturday night Richardson phoned and asked if I had any numbers I said only one small booth had called in. He asked me what the numbers were and said wtte “we are in” and we won the election.

  20. two bobs worth
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 5:56 pm | PERMALINK

    You may criticise Richo for many things as I do but he knows how to do numbers.

    ———————————————-

    The same richo who said abbott would win by 10 seats in 2010

  21. channel 9 news tonight running the line that the ALP are so desperate they’ve started personal attacks on Abbott…

    It’s just gonna get worse and worse….we’re getting closer and closer to the cliff……we’ve reached the stage now where absolutely nothing will go right for Gillard.
    Nothing.
    Nada.
    Zilch.
    Zero.

    It’s all over.
    Red.
    Rover.

  22. two bobs worth

    [In the 1995 State Election I was working in an inner city seat at Glebe.]
    No denying that back in the day Graham Richardson was a numbers ninja. But that was back in the day.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *