Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

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  1. For those who wish to make fun of the PM knitting, just google “famous knitters” or “famous knitters men” or “CWA knitters”.

    Knitting and similar crafts are big business for stores like Spotlight.

    How many knitters have been disqualified for taking drugs compared to Mr Abbott’s favourite pastime of competitive cycling?

  2. Tom Hawkins, deluding yourself must be easy when you’re deluded.

    But cheer up it’ll all be over in a few months, and at least Rudd won’t be PM, ’cause that’d be worse than Abbott, right?

  3. Gillard doesn’t claim travel allowances or accommodation allowances while undertaking her pastime

    Whereby Abbott in doing his charity rides claims travel allowance for the kms he rides and accommodation allowances at hotels along the way costing taxpayers thousands of dollars while he uses these rides as part of his publicity platform…all paid for by taxpayers

  4. I believe that Caroline Overington did the interview which accompanied WW article – but it’s only online. Caller on 774 this morn said it was very unfavourable to JG and wondered why JG allowed it. Anyone like to give their opinion on Overington? Memory suggests she’s anti.

  5. FWIW, under the current numbers in SA, I would see Champion managing to scrape a win in Wakefield. He’s a good local MP and campaigner and will probably get over the line. Georganas (Hindmarsh) and Ellis (Adelaide) will be gone, on account of their margins being way too small to withstand the electoral tide (although a lot of the swing will be normalising the outer suburb seats that were won 60-40ish last time.)

    Zappia (Makin) will struggle as a lot of people don’t want to work for him this time because the left feel he betrayed them on same sex marriage. Also, the “bible belt” which exists in that seat will have shifted back to the Coalition, so I am calling him a loss.

    Rishworth (Kingston) is not that safe, despite a huge margin and could be a shock. Problem with a lot of the suburban seats is they saw such sharp swings to Labor last time that similar sharp swings could go against them. And it’s important to remember that Port Adelaide is the only SA seat that hasn’t had a Coalition MP at some point in the last 10 years.

    It’s really hard to define the nature of SA’s swing. It could be worse (for Labor) than what William’s projecting. OTOH, it could be better (i.e. losses limited to Hindmarsh and Adelaide – which is still bad for Labor).

    As for reasoning, it’s really simple: they are voting with their hip pockets. Many in the state are suffering economically and things like the carbon tax are being blamed. Also, with a state Labor government that’s been in for 11 years now, it’s hard for the ALP to shift blame for any problems people have in the state. And improvements the state government is making is still in the middle of construction, thus the benefits aren’t noticed but the inconvenience is (such as debt and, on the ground level, traffic closures etc.)

  6. DWH

    [I love railway layouts and have both a G scale and N scale layout. Certainly more fun than knitting teddy bears :)]

    I can trump that with a 7.25″ gauge, entirely hand-built (even tiny white lanterns atop the front red bumper section) and still working Stanier Black 5; and same gauge King which had only the boiler stays to fix when OH died. When the house is back to its 09/01/2011 state, I’ll get the boiler finished. And a (I forget what – props c15″ or more across) scale Sopworth Snipe engine; the one where the whole engine rotates … a US air museum is expressing interest, but I hate selling his treasures.

    I did say he had a most envied garage, was a seriously spoilt lad, and I called downstairs Blokes Heaven. Guess what we spent most of his “Bucket List” 2010 trip to England doing!

    Wee Bro collects Hornby ?HO, I think; has since babyhood.

  7. Lizzie

    [Anyone like to give their opinion on Overington? Memory suggests she’s anti.]

    Election2007? “The Australian likes to see itself as Kingmaker”? Abusive emails to the candidate standing against Mal Turnbull? HUGE scandal? Got into a screaming brawl in front of the booth on polling day? Took long “gardening leave”? Nicknamed Overthetopington?

    Oh, Lizzie! How could you forget!

  8. [But cheer up it’ll all be over in a few months, and at least Rudd won’t be PM, ’cause that’d be worse than Abbott, right?]

    Who, apart from you, is talking about Rudd?

  9. People aren’t mocking the fact that Julia Gillard knits, they’re mocking those ridiculously posed photographs of her knitting.

  10. OPT

    [I can trump that with a 7.25″ gauge]

    But can you make the real ‘Toot, Toot’ sound if you haven’t got the train set right?

    That’s the ‘real’ test.

    😀 (and I’m full of it!)

  11. I’m a little confused. Did Ms Overington conduct the interview for Women’s weekly?

    If so why did the Prime Minister’s office allow a known pro liberal journalist to conduct the interview?

  12. Meguire Bob @601

    “how would you explain how the opinion polling got it so wrong”

    So now you have a crystal ball to go along with pulling numbers out of your arse ?

    Why don’t you just say the ALP will win 60/40. Just as believable as all the other crap you post.

  13. [Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 1m

    Labor leader betting: GIllard into $1.30: Rudd $3.20. Rudd unwanted by caucus and punters it seems
    ]

    Does this mean teh ruddstoration suckers go silent for a few days at least.

    Just cut your posts, save em up for past in a couple of weeks. No one reads them anymore anyway.

  14. Jo Gash is thanking the entire population of her electorate, one by one, in alphabetical order. When did this convention of allowing hours of tediosity from retiring members begin?

  15. I expect this to be the lead article in “The Australian” tomorrow.

    Sue Lappeman ‏@suelapp 5h

    BREAKING NEWS: We cross live to Parliament House where sources tell us Gillard has dropped a stitch. I repeat, she has dropped a stitch.

  16. Carey Moore

    [That is why Gillard cannot scratch her back without getting backlash. From everyone.]

    Bullshit. You and your buddies like to think the MSM have the goods, especially when it feeds your bias,and you agree with the prejudice – and you’ve bought into it hook line and sinker.

    I used to value your input. Now I don’t think you have an original thought in your head.

  17. adrian, even if it’s not you who dislikes her, your comment refers to limits being placed on PMJG’s actions for no reason (with merit) other than that some people are going to find fault with it. What you said is similar to those (cowards) who mark down PMJG for even being seen to carry their cause because they believe her baggage will become associated with it.

    The result of assigning significance (as you have done) to such opinions is paralysis.

    Or who would you blame? Let me guess, the MSM and Rudd.

    I have no idea what this has to do with anything I said. I can only guess you carried on a longer conversation with me in your head following my comment and this is in response a comment made by the simulated me :P. In any case, who is responsible for PMJG’s and the ALP’s predicament is irrelevant to my point above.

    PS. Similarly, for other people it’s always the wrong time, place and person when TA shows off his smugglers :P. Maybe that’s Turnbull’s fault?

  18. lizzie

    You might like this from Mary Ann Müller in 1869 “An Appeal to the men of New Zealand” advocating votes for women. How things have changed 🙂

    [Go to our Government schools. Are girls so far behind boys in intelligence there? Converse in society with girls of sixteen or twenty, and compare them with youths of their own age – are they less sensible? I think I might even venture to assert that most girls of eighteen are better informed upon many subjects of general information than their brothers are.]
    http://www.nzhistory.net.nz/media/photo/an-appeal-to-the-men-of-new-zealand

  19. Battle Turkeys

    Quite right. Having a hobby such as knitting is great, and vital for a person in a high-pressure job to have a ready outlet for relieving stress.

    That’s not the point. As one article made clear, JG herself had doubts about the photo shoot, saying it felt “slightly absurd” – which was, as a previous poster noted, a massive understatement.

    It’s the fact she’s knitting a woollen kangaroo for the royal baby, and that the photo is stylised in a way that makes it look like it is straight out of the Menzies era.

    Could a photo of JG knitting have worked as a PR positive? Perhaps. For instance, let’s say she was dressed modern-casual, during downtime, a glass of red at hand, a book by Noam Chomsky face-down on a nearby coffee table. And she was knitting a Western Bulldogs scarf for a 6-year-old fan at the Royal Children’s Hospital, who was suffering from leukaemia.

    That would have worked.

  20. The Grauniad knows something we don’t: “Federal opposition leader Julie Bishop arrives at Hazel Hawke’s memorial service at the Sydney Opera House Photo by Mick Tsikas”

  21. [Bullshit. You and your buddies like to think the MSM have the goods, especially when it feeds your bias,and you agree with the prejudice – and you’ve bought into it hook line and sinker.]

    Okay. Whatever.

    [I used to value your input.]

    Considering all my past interactions with you, I doubt that’s true. You only liked it when I said things that were pro-ALP.

    [Now I don’t think you have an original thought in your head.]

    Yeah, I’m one of the herd. I’m unique in that way!

  22. davidwh @677

    “Go easy on MB morpheus. He has a real shock coming up in around three months.”

    Hehehehe.. We really shouldn’t tease the special people. At least he gets the spelling of “factual” and “default” right. Too bad he doesn’t know their meaning 🙂

  23. [Richo has to be in there with a chance of winning.]

    Buy a lottery ticket enough times, and you are guaranteed a win.

  24. http://pmopressoffice.wordpress.com/2013/06/25/background-on-womens-weekly-article-and-photo-shoot/
    Background on Women’s Weekly article and photo shoot

    Women’s Weekly requested an interview and photo shoot in March.

    It was suggested by the PMO that a news angle for the story could be the Prime Minister’s gift of a knitting package (wool, patterns, and knitted toy) for Kate Middleton, for the July edition.

    Women’s Weekly agreed to the idea of the article.

    Women’s Weekly arranged the photo shoot, including requesting that the Prime Minister knit and that her dog, Reuben, attend.

    Women’s Weekly claim that the PMO organised the photo shoot:

    Overington – ABC Melbourne – 25 June 2013
    (quote)
    [The difficulty was because it was organised by her media team.]

    In fact, Women’s Weekly had complete creative control over the photo shoot. The PMO did not rule in or rule out any particular shot.

    An estimated 400 shots were taken.

    Shots of the PM were taken with and without knitting needles and wool, with and without Reuben, and in a formal outfit and an informal outfit. Reuben was also photographed with the knitted roo.

    It was entirely Women’s Weekly’s choice to publish the image they did.

    The PMO agreed to a wide-ranging interview. Caroline Overington interviewed the PM for one hour on her achievements, leadership, misogyny, knitting, the Royal Family, Kyle Sandilands.

    Not a word of this interview appeared in the article published in Australian Women’s Weekly.

  25. [When did this convention of allowing hours of tediosity from retiring members begin]

    Maybe it coincides with swearing out of judges which used to be reserved to appeal judges but is now for everyone

  26. [Yeah, I’m one of the herd. I’m unique in that way!]

    The one thing we have in common is that we’re all unique.

    🙂

  27. CTaR1

    *laughs* Hawker shops broadening the mind.

    We are thinking of doing some winter time in northern hemisphere as well just to get away from the interminable Rudd! Even so, Dio does still seems a bit grumpy. Perhaps it was just the papal proximity.

  28. alias

    Seriously, when you resort to engaging and agreeing with people like Battle Turkeys you have slipped into the twilight zone.

  29. Alias

    Apply for a job as Gillard’s PR person

    Spot on. If she had been knitting a scarf for a sick kid, dressed in her jeans and a sensible book nearby it would have been a good PR but looking like my grandma knitting for a royal bub, yuck, yuckity, yuck..And the dog OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

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