GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Nielsen poll, conducted for Fairfax from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead blowing out to 57-43 after a relatively mild 54-46 last month. The primary votes are 29% for Labor (down three) and 47% for the Coalition (up three). That becomes 50-50 under a Kevin Rudd leadership scenario, with primary votes of 40% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition. The poll also finds Julia Gillard crashing on preferred prime minister from 46-46 to 50-41 in Tony Abbott’s favour.
I don’t normally give too much coverage to the internals in these polls, but there is very interesting movement beyond the margin of error in the gender breakdowns. Whereas all voting intention figures and personal ratings are little changed on the last poll for women, Labor’s primary vote among men is down seven to 24%, with Gillard down eight on approval to 28% and up ten on disapproval to 69%, and Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister widening from 48-42 to 56-35. The other noteworthy feature of the breakdowns is a big movement away from Labor among respondents under 40, but little change in the older cohorts.
We also had a Galaxy poll of 996 respondents published in the Sunday News Limited papers, which had the Coalition’s lead up from 54-46 to 55-45, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down two), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 11% for the Greens (up one). With Kevin Rudd as leader, the primary votes became 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with two-party preferred at 50-50. Nonetheless, only 34% said Gillard should make way for Rudd with 52% opposed (32-60 among Labor and 33-51 among Coalition supporters).
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week with the Coalition on 47%, the Greens on 8% and two-party preferred at 54-46. Respondents were also asked who they voted for in 2010, an exercise which is generally recognised as being blighted by the tendency of some to mis-remember having voted for the winning party. Sure enough, once “didn’t vote” and “don’t know” are excluded, the results are 44% for Labor, 42% for the Coalition and 8% for the Greens, compared with election results of 38.0%, 43.6% and 11.8%. Respondents saying they had changed their vote were given a list of choices for why, but the samples here are very small and no clear pattern emerges from the results.
The poll also inquires about importance of election issues and the best party to handle them, which for some reason has “management of the economy” declining in importance since February (47% nominated it as one of their three most important issues, compared with 62% in February), with “political leadership” increasing (from 14% to 22%). Labor has gone substantially backwards as the best party for political leadership, along with environmental and population issues. Further questions on asylum seekers have 38% rating the Coalition as having the best policy against 13% for Labor and 7% for the Greens. A five-point scale of the issue’s importance has 37% rating it in the middle, 34% as important, and 24% as less important or not important.
UPDATE 2 (Morgan): The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll defies Nielsen in recording a shift to Labor on last week’s result, their primary vote up two to 33% with the Coalition down 1.5% to 44.5% and the Greens down 0.5% to 9%. The Coalition two-party lead narrows from 56-44 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences, and from 56-44 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent allocated preferences.
[Steve Clements
Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 10:31 pm | PERMALINK
Labor just cannot afford to buckle. To give into this terrorism would show what a spineless party they really would be.]
Hear hear!
That’s just what it is, terrorism. By media.
And, unfortunately, the fifth estate is joining forces.
Ugggghhhhh. How ugly.
Like I have being saying for weeks, the timing is crucial.
You can’t switch too early to allow Murdoch and Old Media to destroy Rudd BEFORE the start of the official campaign.
I think June 26 or 27 then BANG into a strong long campaign.
[confessions
Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 10:35 pm | PERMALINK
I really cant believe how many people are now seeking short term solace in poll conspiracy theories to keep warm at night until the election.
What?
I have been observing the Member for Griffith’s whiteanting for nearly 3 years now, copping abuse left, right and centre from PBers for my effort. Nobody, with the exception of Boerwar intuited his game and what his ultimate aim was.]
Little Kev’s whiteanting has nothing to do with poll conspiracies… Now whats the difference between Gillards whiteanting and Kevins whitanting?.
Anyone done a seat count?
Federal ALP needs to talk to QLD and NSW about transport arrangements
[confessions
Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 10:17 pm | PERMALINK
It looks like having Mr R#dd out and about has not helped, and may even have had a negative effect on ALP polling figures. Maybe he is not the panacea that many believe in?
All it does is reinforce the division within the party.
Which is R*dd’s aim, of course.]
Yes, if he can’t win it, he’s dedicated to destroying it for Gillard. What a creep. He never had Labor’s rank and file at heart.
Compact Crank@9
And after Rudd has been restored as PM, the whole focus shifts to Abbott.
Huzzah !!!
It is not only the gender war speech that has hurt the alp – the parallel campaigns is something we have not seen before – it is actually a presidential primary campaign in a system where primaries do not exist.
I think the 24% for men says we aren’t happy with a PM who wants to take us back to the gender wars of the 70’s. Many men would have been justifiably put off by that speech at the Women for Gillard rally.
Haydn
[Where is Meguire Bob when you need him?]
Re-chipping in a Sunday service I think.
matt31,
Hi, Grima!
Fess, get your hand off it, most PBers were on your side back in 2010.
Party people.
@CC/54
I think I read on twitter that Hung Parliament under the current Galaxy polling.
Sarah @55
Rudd is dedicated to destroying it for anyone who is not him leading the alp – gillard or anyone else. The question of how hinged he is has to be asked – all indications are – not very.
Sarah, do you really think that an ALP leader who has the rank and file as their first priority will ever become PM?
[zoidlord
Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 10:44 pm | PERMALINK
@CC/54
I think I read on twitter that Hung Parliament under the current Galaxy polling.]
hehe, think of a hung parliament under PM Rudd and Gillard on the back bench 🙂 ….
Zoidlord
How do you get a hung parliament out of 55-45?
Compact Crank@9
I made a joking suggestion about the solution to this a few threads back. Once Rudd has the numbers he runs (I said Simon Crean but decided that was too silly and switched to Dick Adams instead) as a stalking horse candidate. The stalking horse wins and is appointed Prime Minister, thus removing the Gillard problem. The stalking horse immediately resigns and Rudd contests the leadership and is elected unopposed. Sorted! 🙂
Really the problem is that the whole game of leadership denials is one of continual lying and if Rudd goes back on his word I don’t think anyone will care. People want an end to Abbott vs Gillard so much they won’t notice.
blackburnpseph @50 – I agree. Also waiting til after the session circumvents Windsor’s saber-rattling.
As for gender stuff I did an interview about it with the Mercury just now (in between having 7 hours wasted by a minor router issue). Anyone who doesn’t know want a guess at when women started preferring the ALP more than men did?
Polls in last fortnight or so
Essential 54
Galaxy 55
Morgan 56
Nielsen 57
Newspoll 58
Morgan phone (two little ones) 59
My aggregate’s gone to 56.
63 – Not a particularly psephy argument.
@BBS/66
If Rudd was leading Labor Party.
@Rummel/65
Thats current polling, what about if it moves in the PLUS Territory?
Well, that’s one 24% tgis male is particularly pleased to be a part of. I think Julia Gillard’s a remarkable and remarkably under-appreciated person.
This week I’ve seen what segments of the 76% consist of. Not a good crowd by and large.:/
[Little Kev’s whiteanting has nothing to do with poll conspiracies]
*Points to Victoria where the deposed first term Premier united behind the leadership and the polls improved for the govt*
Looney predictions Bob Ellis style
_____________
I recall him predicting a hung Parliamwent in NSW at the time of the last state elections
Whoops Bob
Womble @ 22: “TLBD – how’s this for an alternative, Julia walks into caucus on Tuesday and expels Kevin from the party???”
You would really like Ms Gillard to follow the example of Mr Bjelke-Petersen, who tried the same thing on Mike Ahern and promptly found himself dumped?
Steve Clements @ 36: “They may lose with Julia Gillard at the helm, but at least they can retain their dignity, which is more than I can say about many other Australians, most particularly the Coalition.”
No consideration there of what impact such an outcome might have on the people the ALP once purported to represent. But in era in which Obeids and Macdonalds can thrive for a long, long time, the people being represented don’t really matter, do they?
Perhaps that Newspoll wasn’t rouge.
I’m not seeing anyone saying the trend is your friend here because the trend is really bad.
Looks like lots of swinging voters wear blue ties.
Kevin @67
Women probably started preferring the alp in about 1990 or 1993. The big difference now is that the gap is comparitively large.
Let me see, now. We have polls.
Then we have commenters, apart from those who cite the figures who:
say: “given on this then …”
say: “based on this, I opine …”
say: “based on this, demonstrably, on 14/9, Y”
say: “based on this, Labor MUST …”
Looks like lots of men wear blue ties out there in voter land… what an own goal from Gillard.
[davidwh
Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 10:42 pm | PERMALINK
I think the 24% for men says we aren’t happy with a PM who wants to take us back to the gender wars of the 70′s. Many men would have been justifiably put off by that speech at the Women for Gillard rally.]
Why would men have been put off by a speech outlining how Labor has legislated for women’s equality?
Didn’t you want your wife to be equal?
Didn’t you want your daughters to have equal opportunity?
Don’t you want it for your granddaughters?
Or are you men so damn afraid of women getting a foothold in employment and/or having an equal salary for equal work?
What the bluddy hell is wrong with men?
You want us to work, in the paid workforce. But you don’t want us to get anywhere. Is that it?
And, if it isn’t, why are you offended by a speech by a woman to women about the successes brought about by Labor?
There’s something wrong with men when they can say on the one hand they champion women’s rights and on the other, they abhor them. And they’re all upset about hearing about it. What are you going to do? Tell your womenfolk to work, grow the kids, look after them, but don’t listen to equality speak?
[zoidlord
Thats current polling, what about if it moves in the PLUS Territory?]
Then its plainly a media conspiracy that rigged the polls so bad that Gillard would get booted so Sir Kev (house of Light on the Hill) would be once again be crowned King Kev by the good villagers of Australia.
Kevin has been incredibly disloyal – if he, or whoever he asked to, hadn’t leaked during the 2010 campaign there wouldn’t be a hung parliament today imo
He has destabilised all the way through to the challenge that wasn’t earlier this year – disgraceful behaviour
From there I think Julia had a small pocket of clear air that she unfortunately hasn’t been capable of capitalising on
For MP’s in the next couple of weeks it’s a choice between a hell a lot of hard work and a prayer or two and backing Julia, refusing to reward Kevin for what he has done OR switching and hoping the 50/50 numbers are right or can be improved on and Kevin has learned from it all
It won’t be an easy choice – I’ll respect them in some ways whichever they choose
People are making a lot of sense re the timing, the 28th takes parliament out of play
[Looks like lots of men wear blue ties out there in voter land… what an own goal from Gillard.]
Hard as it may have been on your three brain cells to understand an idiom, you do know she wasn’t literally talking about blue ties, right?
Hold the line everyone!
The polls are wrong!
Wrong I tell you.
Julia Gillard is on track to win an historic victory!
All is not lost!
The narrowing….it’s the narrowing surely!
Abbott’s an idiot!
No one will vote for him.
None I tell you!
Everything Julia does is fantastic.
No one can beat her.
No one I tell you!!!
You’ll see next month the polls will turn.
Abbott’s a loser.
A loser I tell you.
And Kevin’s an a-hole.
A-hole I tell you.
Although, he just might stand a better chance of keeping Abbott out of the Lodge.
stfu is a God(musrum)-send
[Fess, get your hand off it]
Get my hand off what, exactly? Can you elaborate?
And given that you aren’t even a Labor voter much less a Labor member, why do you care what the ALP does with its leadership?
Steves comment @ 36 about labor losing with dignity sounds more like something the greens would say. Gaining using and holding power is the name of the game – no matter what side you are on.
[Perhaps that Newspoll wasn’t rouge]
No, it was very bleu!
womble,
The application you asked for is in the mail.
@rummel/79
That’s possible.
The opposite is also true, get down as low as possible so that Kevin can’t win the 2013 election?
So… Lets say the first actual Rudd v Abbott Newspoll has Rudd leading 52-48… Do the Libs panic on Abbott?
Joh sacked Ahern from the ministry; four days later the caucus sacked Joh by a vote of 38-9.
easy as a b c
and ellis is very occasionally right (not about his play tho) he is now. spot on. comformatable victory. vote abbott out
[gloryconsequence
Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 10:58 pm | PERMALINK
So… Lets say the first actual Rudd v Abbott Newspoll has Rudd leading 52-48… Do the Libs panic on Abbott?]
No, just play the tapes 🙂
The worst things said about Kevin have come from Labor…. Its a remarkable pickle Labor have got them self into, though i think Kevin could still come through.
So we might be looking at a decade of LNP? Every racist, sexist, climate change denying looney in the country will have a field day…Oh well, back to the 50s for Australia..
New Zealand’s looking better every day.
[So… Lets say the first actual Rudd v Abbott Newspoll has Rudd leading 52-48… Do the Libs panic on Abbott?]
After the efforts the faceless men of the Liberal party went to in order to get him there?
*laughs*
Before everyone blames Rudd for campaigning, don’t forget he was asked to by many Labor MPs who look like losing their seats, including Peter Garrett who is a Gillard supporter.
More Twitter Theories:
Jennifer @conceravota 1m
Good Q RT @BridgetOFlynn: Was this the Rudd plan all along? Destabilise. Then stop. Call off dogs. When enough damage was done. Then smile.
the photo being discussed by Wendy, oops Grace
edgyCATEd @GalacticWomanAu 2h
Original photo of the PM from The Australian next to the one from Grace Collier’s page- Chest enlarged. Head altered. pic.twitter.com/N2LxEC8jsh
gloryconsequence@89
Not after just one poll. I think there would be a Rudd bounce but the question is whether and how fast it goes away.
[This little black duck
Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 10:55 pm | PERMALINK
stfu is a God(musrum)-send]
What a stupid post.
How would you know? he he he
[They may lose with Julia Gillard at the helm, but at least they can retain their dignity]
There’s not very much dignity in losing around thirty plus seats. Not for JG, not for the party, not for anyone. And most definitely not for those who actually lost the seats.