GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Nielsen poll, conducted for Fairfax from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead blowing out to 57-43 after a relatively mild 54-46 last month. The primary votes are 29% for Labor (down three) and 47% for the Coalition (up three). That becomes 50-50 under a Kevin Rudd leadership scenario, with primary votes of 40% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition. The poll also finds Julia Gillard crashing on preferred prime minister from 46-46 to 50-41 in Tony Abbott’s favour.
I don’t normally give too much coverage to the internals in these polls, but there is very interesting movement beyond the margin of error in the gender breakdowns. Whereas all voting intention figures and personal ratings are little changed on the last poll for women, Labor’s primary vote among men is down seven to 24%, with Gillard down eight on approval to 28% and up ten on disapproval to 69%, and Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister widening from 48-42 to 56-35. The other noteworthy feature of the breakdowns is a big movement away from Labor among respondents under 40, but little change in the older cohorts.
We also had a Galaxy poll of 996 respondents published in the Sunday News Limited papers, which had the Coalition’s lead up from 54-46 to 55-45, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down two), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 11% for the Greens (up one). With Kevin Rudd as leader, the primary votes became 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with two-party preferred at 50-50. Nonetheless, only 34% said Gillard should make way for Rudd with 52% opposed (32-60 among Labor and 33-51 among Coalition supporters).
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week with the Coalition on 47%, the Greens on 8% and two-party preferred at 54-46. Respondents were also asked who they voted for in 2010, an exercise which is generally recognised as being blighted by the tendency of some to mis-remember having voted for the winning party. Sure enough, once “didn’t vote” and “don’t know” are excluded, the results are 44% for Labor, 42% for the Coalition and 8% for the Greens, compared with election results of 38.0%, 43.6% and 11.8%. Respondents saying they had changed their vote were given a list of choices for why, but the samples here are very small and no clear pattern emerges from the results.
The poll also inquires about importance of election issues and the best party to handle them, which for some reason has “management of the economy” declining in importance since February (47% nominated it as one of their three most important issues, compared with 62% in February), with “political leadership” increasing (from 14% to 22%). Labor has gone substantially backwards as the best party for political leadership, along with environmental and population issues. Further questions on asylum seekers have 38% rating the Coalition as having the best policy against 13% for Labor and 7% for the Greens. A five-point scale of the issue’s importance has 37% rating it in the middle, 34% as important, and 24% as less important or not important.
UPDATE 2 (Morgan): The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll defies Nielsen in recording a shift to Labor on last week’s result, their primary vote up two to 33% with the Coalition down 1.5% to 44.5% and the Greens down 0.5% to 9%. The Coalition two-party lead narrows from 56-44 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences, and from 56-44 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent allocated preferences.
gloryconsequence
Exactly the scenario I have been saying is plausible for 12 months. If Gillard goes; Rudd becomes king of the pops; then Abbott,sinking will be Siev-Xed for Turnbull. It isn’t fantasy. This could happen.
Glory @89
Possibly – they could turn to turnbull – then we would have the strange spectacle of both parties lead by people who demonstrably do not have the trust of their parties. A very strange spectacle indeed – and not too fat down the track some sort of political vacuum would appear. Both parties wpuld have leaders expecting the silken cord at any time – very ottoman – and not conducive to successful westminster democracy.
WTF!?
[“I don’t think it’s appropriate for a Prime Minister to be showing her cleavage in Parliament,” the Australian Financial Review columnist said during the Outsiders panel segment.
“It’s not something I want to see. In my opinion as an industrial relations consultant, it is inappropriate to be in Parliament, it is disrespectful to yourself and to the Australian community and to the parliament to present yourself in a manner that is unprofessional.
“In every Australian workplace we have certain standards of presentation and conduct. It’s not just about personal presentation. It’s about conduct.”]
Does this shit never end?
If a change in leadership is to occur, I really don’t see any great need to wait until Parliament has finished sitting before doing it; the danger of a successful no-confidence motion has always appeared overblown to me. Windsor on his own can achieve nothing. Only five votes are needed on the floor to keep things rolling along, and I doubt that enough of the current crossbenchers would kick up a stink when there are only a few more months until the election anyway. I contend that it might just do the Government a world of good for Rudd to be seen taking charge in Question Time again.
Diogenes
And there is so much not happening that Garrett tonight was moved to say he would not serve under Rudd
Diogenes,
You must must be looking forward to an MRI-Wooldridge clone.
I’m sure Peter Dutton will be just fine.
57 – 43
After that week? Horseshit and double Pffft!
Well, I have finally and very reluctantly come to the conclusion that something radical and drastic must be done by Labor to restore respect for our great party.
The leadership issue must be dealt with swiftly and ruthlessly within the next couple of days to stop an electoral wipe-out that will see Labor in the wilderness for many years to come.
Kevin Rudd must be expelled from the Labor Party immediately …his treachery over the last three years must not be rewarded with the leadership …and he must not be allowed to stay and continue undermining our democratically elected PM.
If Labor allow him and the media/Coalition propaganda unit to prevail …they will be giving in to bullying and blackmail that has been so disgracefully un-democratic as to be a form of terrorism.
Labor MUST cut this gangrenous limb from it’s body …before the poison that is Kevin Rudd spreads throughout the whole party …he is indeed, Dr DEATH!!
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes now
#Nielsen Poll Preferred PM: Gillard 41 (-5) Abbott 50 (+4) #auspol
Zoidlord @96
Very Richard III!
Rudd has got to go.
Let’s not forget that Rudd sure can campaign and cut through.
If Labor can play it that the voters were right and they’ve got THEIR PM back – they are in with a serious shot.
Now what I ask of the Gillard supporters… is for the same loyalty to Rudd as they demanded from him – which can result in victory.
I don’t care what Rudd has done and if he’s been an @rse hole.
I want to WIN 😡
*knock yourselves out* 🙂
[Does this shit never end?]
No, and that’s one thing I will lament about the Gillard years is this kind of crap. While a lot of Labor hacks go too far with the label, there has still been a huge amount of sexism both derogatory and institutional, thrown around in the last three years.
It is symptomatic of a greater problem in our society but it is one thing I am and always will be genuinely sympathetic to Gillard about.
itsthevibe,
You are wrong on so many counts.
Here is a start http://www.aph.gov.au/
William Bowe@109
BOO!
Ducky
The Federal Health Minister has basically zero impact on me. The state health ministers have much more of an impact.
Diogenes,
Has Jay signed up?
Seriously, should Rudd roll Gillard and then miraculously win an election – how long will he last? There is so much bad blood that the whole merry go round will start again.
When Howard Lazarus had his triple bypass and was elected Lib LOTO for the last time, it was done on the basis of blunt messages that he had to change his habits, pull his head in and listen to people. He did that and was successful.
For Rudd to succeed he has to change his habits and listen to people and realise he is there to be the figurehead and leader of the team. Let the team do the work and he can go off and “figurehead” till the cows come home.
I see no evidence anywhere that KR can do this. No evidence that anything will be different from last time. Have there been any KR supporters saying he has changed? Is KR saying he has learned a lot?
Yesterday he said this
“One of the things I have been slow to learn is the importance of simply, privately and publicly acknowledging the good work of others,” he said.
He said he had learnt it was important to “bring people of the community and your political colleagues with you”, when explaining decisions.
Nothing in that dross to indicate he understands the mechanism or method of Cabinet Govt. All he has realised is that he should be nice after he makes all the decisions and that he must trust his Cabinet colleagues to carry out all of his decisions which he will make. A recipe for disaster.
Where is G G when needed
_________
For three years he said…nay insisted..that Gillard would come good…next month? next year? next poll…now when the end is nigh no sign of GG ?
Ducky
[Has Jay signed up?]
To what
Centre@112
That
Markjs @ 108 and Gecko @ 111: The problem with what you are proposing is simply that it’s way out of whack with public opinion. If the voters, rightly or wrongly, have decided that they like Mr Rudd, kicking him out would simply be seen as a gratuitous insult to them, a repetition (in spades) of the insult of 2010. If the ALP takes your advice, we should all prepare for 8 to 12 years of Mr Abbott, or something worse.
What we really need right now is a crappy photoshop of Abbott with an unhappy face, with some caption about how he is “scared” because of Gonski or something. That’ll change things!
Even if Rudd replaced Gillard and won, Labor would probably toss him for Shorten about a year later.
I wish Fairfax could wait until after Elementary is screened in WA.
71
The situation is a little different in Victoria. Ted had tired of being leader while Rudd had not. Ted killed off white anting by quitting and choosing his own replacement while Rudd was hit by a sudden hostile takeover.
Centre
Rudd is a siren. He must be EXORCISED.
[The Julia ship is sinking.
Meguire Bob, Guytaur, Henry, Confessions and many others… get on the life raft and don’t be silly ]
Will only consider it after chaining that Rudd prick to a pump in the lower bilge and tossing the key overboard. 🙂
Oh, and that chisel he has been using to cut holes in the hull?? I know just the place…..
The widening continues.
126
I have already seen Elementary.
I shall resist temptation to post a spoiler.
markjs@108
He himself was once a democractically elected PM who was undermined by people who may have been said to be treacherous, or may have had the party’s best interests in heart, depending on how you look at it.
Expulsion talk is strategically most unwise. Labor if it expels Rudd now would not only record a disastrous result but would also free him to start his own party with a lot of public sympathy on his side, and with a long-term goal of destroying the ALP and replacing it with a new progressive party.
[Gecko
Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 11:07 pm | Permalink
Rudd has got to go.]
The one trump card Labor has in a desperate situation and you and several others here want to throw him out of the party. Amazing.
Diogenes@121
My bad. To the NDIS.
As you know, that particular scheme will be the foundation for future health care reform.
The ‘expel Rudd’ call is a total failure of vision. Taking that to its logical conclusion, the party would be left to more of the same. Who are those people running the party?
By what ticket have they got to run the former bastion against unfairness now wallowing around 30% of the PV? By joining a fiefdom from outside the unions, stepping nto a union at the top while building their own power base, and then stepping out into a top job in the government. Conroy; Shorten; Farrell; Swan; Feeney – all hollow dopes. And Gillard a puppet for them. I’m ashamed to have been a Labour Council delegate watching this destruction.
Prof Cole says Obama is quite isolated at the G8 in Ireland this week on arming the Syrian rebels
________________
The Russians see it as a kind of New Cold War and are now determined that the Syrian regiome will survive
They will get a spanking from Bob Carr if Putin doesn’t watch out
http://www.juancole.com/
If, as was suggested earlier, some of you here are ALP staffers (apart from the ones that everyone knows about), you should all take a good hard look at yourselves and inquire how many of the prescriptions you have been putting forward here would be of benefit to the people your party is supposed to be representing, rather than in the interests of your party, your factions or you as individuals. And if this makes no sense to you, congratulations, you have just shown yourselves to be nothing more than members of a patronage network, the Golkar of the south seas.
Same as with Galaxy , something for everyone.interesting how the female vote went up!
blackburnpseph@118
This is the big credibility problem for a Rudd return; how on earth can he convince the voters he will last and that Labor won’t just throw him out again? Probably he would have to immediately bring in membership-based elections for leader or something similar to stop that from being so likely.
[Mithrandir, the ALP has lst a quarter of their vote. A third of them are unenthused.
Who will get better public support from the campaign?
Given that the Murdocracy is going nowhere, more shoulders to the wheels is the only counter to his influence.]
Actually I overstate the power of the Murdocracy. They will be as negative as they were in 2010. The real problem will begin when the Liberals start saturating the airwaves with anti Rudd adverts.
This is the fundamental problem when you engage in a campaign of undermining your own party to force them to make you leader. You will make lots of internal enemies and people on your own side will say bad things about you (in public). Giving ammunition to your enemy is never a good strategy.
pedant
Well posed.
Labor has to get rid of Rudd …better to do it now before he completely destroys the party …which he certainly will if rewarded with the leadership OR if he is rebuffed by caucus and carries on with his pathological white-anting behaviour.
He is incapable of working within a team ..he is incapable of not wreaking retribution on all those he perceives to have wronged him …he is quite mad.
Diogenes
Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 11:04 pm | PERMALINK
WTF!?
[“I don’t think it’s appropriate for a Prime Minister to be showing her cleavage in Parliament,” the Australian Financial Review columnist said during the Outsiders panel segment.
“It’s not something I want to see. In my opinion as an industrial relations consultant, it is inappropriate to be in Parliament, it is disrespectful to yourself and to the Australian community and to the parliament to present yourself in a manner that is unprofessional.
“In every Australian workplace we have certain standards of presentation and conduct. It’s not just about personal presentation. It’s about conduct.”]
Does this shit never end?
Well may you ask.
How about asking Grace “Wendy” Collier?
(But of course you have to take into account how much breast you can show when having a bra mic to entrap a union rep)
And then again how much leg can a woman show? Hey Wendy?
It’s time Julia made a dignified exit. Seriously.
markjs
Concentrate on the issues, the policy and the direction of the party. Who the leader is means 3/4 of 5/8 of very little.
Kevin@139
He would probably have to /want to sever the links withthe unions as well. That is probably a bridge too far.
“Labor has to get rid of Rudd …better to do it now before he completely destroys the party …which he certainly will if rewarded with the leadership OR if he is rebuffed by caucus and carries on with his pathological white-anting behaviour.
He is incapable of working within a team ..he is incapable of not wreaking retribution on all those he perceives to have wronged him …he is quite mad.”
is the pronoun wrong gender in above?
Carey @81
Men who wear blue ties – that’s what she was talking about.
She must be so pissed. They tried to ban the media and she thought she was speaking to a vetted crowd. Would have got away with it but someone stuffed up.
If Labor goes to the election with Julia Gillard as leader I will run around the block with no clothes on.
blackburnpseph@146
Yes, that can’t be done at this stage. Labor should have greatly reduced union power at least a decade ago but complete elimination is never going to fly or be accepted.