GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Nielsen poll, conducted for Fairfax from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead blowing out to 57-43 after a relatively mild 54-46 last month. The primary votes are 29% for Labor (down three) and 47% for the Coalition (up three). That becomes 50-50 under a Kevin Rudd leadership scenario, with primary votes of 40% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition. The poll also finds Julia Gillard crashing on preferred prime minister from 46-46 to 50-41 in Tony Abbott’s favour.
I don’t normally give too much coverage to the internals in these polls, but there is very interesting movement beyond the margin of error in the gender breakdowns. Whereas all voting intention figures and personal ratings are little changed on the last poll for women, Labor’s primary vote among men is down seven to 24%, with Gillard down eight on approval to 28% and up ten on disapproval to 69%, and Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister widening from 48-42 to 56-35. The other noteworthy feature of the breakdowns is a big movement away from Labor among respondents under 40, but little change in the older cohorts.
We also had a Galaxy poll of 996 respondents published in the Sunday News Limited papers, which had the Coalition’s lead up from 54-46 to 55-45, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down two), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 11% for the Greens (up one). With Kevin Rudd as leader, the primary votes became 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with two-party preferred at 50-50. Nonetheless, only 34% said Gillard should make way for Rudd with 52% opposed (32-60 among Labor and 33-51 among Coalition supporters).
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week with the Coalition on 47%, the Greens on 8% and two-party preferred at 54-46. Respondents were also asked who they voted for in 2010, an exercise which is generally recognised as being blighted by the tendency of some to mis-remember having voted for the winning party. Sure enough, once “didn’t vote” and “don’t know” are excluded, the results are 44% for Labor, 42% for the Coalition and 8% for the Greens, compared with election results of 38.0%, 43.6% and 11.8%. Respondents saying they had changed their vote were given a list of choices for why, but the samples here are very small and no clear pattern emerges from the results.
The poll also inquires about importance of election issues and the best party to handle them, which for some reason has “management of the economy” declining in importance since February (47% nominated it as one of their three most important issues, compared with 62% in February), with “political leadership” increasing (from 14% to 22%). Labor has gone substantially backwards as the best party for political leadership, along with environmental and population issues. Further questions on asylum seekers have 38% rating the Coalition as having the best policy against 13% for Labor and 7% for the Greens. A five-point scale of the issue’s importance has 37% rating it in the middle, 34% as important, and 24% as less important or not important.
UPDATE 2 (Morgan): The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll defies Nielsen in recording a shift to Labor on last week’s result, their primary vote up two to 33% with the Coalition down 1.5% to 44.5% and the Greens down 0.5% to 9%. The Coalition two-party lead narrows from 56-44 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences, and from 56-44 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent allocated preferences.
Except that Labor will lose the next election – this has all the makings of a good old labor split. However in 1916, 1931, and 1955 matters of policy and principle wrre at stake. The nearest comparison is qld in 1957 where personality clashes were a major ingredient.
jaundiced view@149
If Rudd is returned and loses the election to Abbott, I’ll run backwards to Sydney, naked.
[Labor has to get rid of Rudd …better to do it now]
= Next member for Griffith will be an LNP.
= That bitch ditched Kevvie
Get the idea?
@131
Thank you
Have the ABC sacked Piers Akerman from Insiders? If not why not?
Womble @80
Are you suggesting that it was appropriate for these machinations to be hushed up?
Fess, I have an interest in keeping Abbott out of the lodge. We just disagree on how to do that. I base my opinion on evidence. Yours is based on rhetoric that no one in the camp that needs to be wooed will believe.
So Rudd stands a chance of at very least stemming the bleeding in the polls and putting Labor into a more favourable position and people want him out of the party. Words fail me.
Very sad that commenters here, Ming House excepted, do not understand the dynamics of politics in Australia.
Gillard and Gillard Labor have lacked the confidence of the people for a very long time but despite that her supporters right from the beginning will never ever put any responsibility for that on her. It will always be something else.
Now here we are closing in on an election and the public beginning to focus on who they prefer it shows Gillard is still truly on the nose and Labor still lacking the confidence of the public.
So the reaction of Gillard only supporters is what…..Rudd must be kicked out of the party. For what…because Gillard has failed and will fail terribly come the election. Rudd is being blamed and has in their to carry the punishment for her failures. Makes wonderful sense in a perverse religious perspective.
Of course if we want to talk about expulsions from the party it should be those who perpetrated one the most stupid and morally and ethically bereft political acts for a long time in Aust political history…..knifed a popularly elected first term PM for zero reason apart from internal power play.
A person who just bought the party in from the wilderness no less. Spitting in the face of the publics democratic choices GILLARD and her promoters decided that they will knife him in an internal power play coup…for entirely selfish reasons.
Who should be expelled from the party? Wanna ask the public? If anybody should be expelled it is Gillard for 1.super selfish act of betrayal on the Aust people and the party. 2 refusing to step down earlier when it was obvious that SHE was the problem. … and of course those who plotted for at least a year the back stabbing of Rudd.
Well lests hope that she refuses to step down, there is no challenge and SHE and her backers face the consequences of their vile acts and moronic selfishness.
And about 20 minutes later:
Herald Sun @theheraldsun 3m
Rudd’s conditions on return as PM http://hsun.info/12AgFOa
[Men who wear blue ties – that’s what she was talking about.]
You miss my point.
I was berating the insistence that she was literally against blue ties.
It was a completely ill-conceived attempt at whipping up the base that just looked like desperate scaremongering but it wasn’t a tirade against fashion sense.
Maybe the gillardistas should volunteer for the lnp campaign in griffith. Rudd losing his seat would solve the problem.
blackburnpseph
[Except that Labor will lose the next election – this has all the makings of a good old labor split. However in 1916, 1931, and 1955 matters of policy and principle wrre at stake. The nearest comparison is qld in 1957 where personality clashes were a major ingredient.]
But this is not about a personality clash. Why did Tanner and Faulkner ‘walk’ as soon as Gillard was installed? Why did other ministers walk when he last effort to dislodge the pragmatists failed? This is as big as 1955. Will the party copy the pragmatic Libs or stand for something? Do we think that matters not?
Kevin Bonham @ 132: I’ve been wondering for some time now whether we might not be approaching the point when there’s another tectonic shift in the party structure in Australia, of the type we haven’t seen since the 1940s. Your scenario of Mr Rudd being expelled from the ALP and forming another social democratic party would be particularly interesting if the coalition were to follow through on the idea raised by Mrs B. Bishop some time back and introduce optional preferential voting.
@jv/149
Thankfully I don’t live in your suburb (wherever that maybe!).
[Men who wear blue ties – that’s what she was talking about.
She must be so pissed. They tried to ban the media and she thought she was speaking to a vetted crowd. Would have got away with it but someone stuffed up]
How disgraceful that Gillard talked about blue ties.
How will anyone ever forgive her.
Take her out the back and do what you will (we’ll all, men and women alike, turn a blind eye)for such a filthy utterance.
Pedant
Endorsing Rudd does not remove public perception that the PARTY IS TORN. Removing him does.
Public opinion is relative to available choice… remove that choice or Labor policy will NEVER be heard.
Rudd doesn’t give a shit about the Party – he is out for revenge and always has been. If Labor fold now they will lose all credibility and become exactly what the critics want. Rudd CANNOT win… a devastating campaign from the Opposition awaits the minute he assumes control and we will deserve every bit of it. Wake up.
Greeting PBers.
It appears that a week of abscence has not seen much change in the PB dynamic.
Poll after poll shows a cataclysmic disaster.
Its all a conspiracy.
Its all Rudd’s fault, not Gillard’s fault.
Sem sem, eh?
TP, for heaven sake stop fighting the last challenge and look ahead. Leave your bile behind.
Andrew Hedge @andrew_hedge 4m
Pressure is on Shorten: Kevin Rudd has listed his conditions for a return as PM | http://News.com.au – http://mobile.news.com.au/national-news/kevin-rudd-has-listed-his-conditions-for-a-return-as-pm/story-fncynjr2-1226664712029 …
The extreme irony of all this is that Gillard’s most ardent lovers actually need Rudd to take over and make the election close, to cover up what she and her backers did and the near disaster that was averted. Rudd is actually required to save Gillard’s reputation since if she takes Labor to a thrashing she will be remembered for a whole lot of bad stuff.
Interesting as WIlliam said the 7% drop in the Labor vote was among male voters while holding form, amonst women
Do some mem dislike it when Gillard speaks out on sexism…even some male Labor voters
seems having a women leader is a very dangerous position to be in
for a party….that old glass ceiling seems like it’s here to stay ….anyway as that great feminist leader Germaine Greer
said..” she wears the wrong shirts which shows her big bum”
Carey – plenty of guys I work and socialize with were pretty pissed about being attacked for being male and wearing blue ties.
Mod Lib@168
Amazing that you got all of that without reading any posts!
I think one major condition of a Rudd return is that if he fell short of winning (yet considerably closed the gap and made it somewhat narrow), he gets another chance in the next term, to try and improve the party’s standing further. In other words, they can’t use him as a scapegoat.
It’d be hard to keep them to their word on it, admittedly, but I’d want a reassurance like that.
[Your scenario of Mr Rudd being expelled from the ALP and forming another social democratic party would be particularly interesting if the coalition were to follow through on the idea raised by Mrs B. Bishop some time back and introduce optional preferential voting.]
The public consequences of expelling Rudd from the party would obliterate it. But I guess so long as those power brokers sit in safe seats they feel safe to play god and let it rain for 40 days/nights.
And if in fact maybe a split is due since we hardly need two Liberal parties.
…Spitting in the face of the publics democratic choices GILLARD and her promoters decided that they will knife him in an internal power play coup…for entirely selfish reasons.
Rubbish. Julia Gillard has the confidence of the Parliament voted in 2010 with herself as leader. Julia Gillard is not President, she is the leader of the party that has the confidence of the House of representatives. Those who voted Labor and most of those who voted Green in 2010 preferred Julia Gillard as PM over Tony Abbott. And who for a nanosecond thinks the Liberals won’t ditch Tony Abbott if he doesn’t deliver what they and their business allies want?
In 2007, if you recall, the MSM was infuriated with Rudd because he wouldnt play to their agendas. He spoke over the top of them to the public, and very successfully too.
He fought Howard where he was strongest, and didnt where he wasnt. This gave the GG repeated conniptions.
So a lot of the grim prognostications about ‘what the media will do’ if Rudd is restored miss the point the completely.
He’s far better at managing them, and doesnt get boxed and cornered as badly as pretty much every other Minister in the ALP, including Gillard.
The media have less power against popular figures. Fsct.
The other point is this: if Rudd didnt exist it would be necessary to invent him. There are already grave splits and deep problem within the ALP – Crean tried to tackle a few. Endless reports are written by the likes Kim Carr. The factional warlords had already made exactly the same mistakes in NSW.
Yes, he played that system, but he didnt represent it in the way others do.
So blaming him for the ALPs problems is frankly ridiculous. He was a key part of their only outright federal win in 20 years. Being disloyal to a bulllshit system may do everyone a favour in the end.
Carey Moore
[It was a completely ill-conceived attempt at whipping up the base that just looked like desperate scaremongering but it wasn’t a tirade against fashion sense.]
And you have to make up a reason for incandescent rage about blue ties?
Cheesus. Blue ties = Scaremongering? What’s the world coming to.
Is it too much to ask that it was a bit of fun about the regimentation of the oppo frontbench?
Oh, no. It was a terrorist activity. FCS. Spare me.
Gary
[So Rudd stands a chance of at very least stemming the bleeding in the polls and putting Labor into a more favourable position and people want him out of the party. Words fail me.]
Startling isn’t it?
[Carey – plenty of guys I work and socialize with were pretty pissed about being attacked for being male and wearing blue ties.]
*rolls eyes*
If Labor expels K Rudd their vote would literally collapse particularly in the outer suburbs of the major cities where seemingly most of you do not appear to live.
The Asian voters particularly those ethnically Chinese would be gone for a generation.
The guy is only turning up where invited by Labor Members of Parliament.
The PM pushed the gender stuff badly all week and runs with David Feeny ( a party hack of no great calibre) over talented women like GED Kearny. Go figure that one out.
@Carey/175
I think they just need to find someone who Likes Rudd, even if from Outsider.
Shouldn’t be too hard ?
zoidlord
How rude! 🙂
Gecko @ 167: I rather think Dr Evatt took a similar view in 1955, and seem to recall that the ALP thereafter was out of power federally for 17 years.
[If Rudd is returned and loses the election to Abbott, I’ll run backwards to Sydney, naked.]
An unwise bet, IMO. Good idea to remain anonymous!
Pedant @164
A ruddite party would not be a social democratic party it would be a populist grab bag.
Darn
[The one trump card Labor has in a desperate situation and you and several others here want to throw him out of the party. Amazing.]
The ‘trump card’ is the fools gold behind the desperation. The Party must decisively back its leader or all is lost. There is no other choice.
Centre said:
[Let’s not forget that Rudd sure can campaign and cut through.]
The evidence for that is from 2007, against a 11.5 year old government that abused its Senate power. I suspect a sheep as ALP leader could have won that election.
[If Labor can play it that the voters were right and they’ve got THEIR PM back – they are in with a serious shot.]
Yeah. The media will just play along with that narrative.
[Now what I ask of the Gillard supporters… is for the same loyalty to Rudd as they demanded from him – which can result in victory.]
I fear there is too much bad blood…
[I don’t care what Rudd has done and if he’s been an @rse hole.
I want to WIN 😡
*knock yourselves out* 🙂 ]
Power for the sake of power? Do whatever it takes? For me principles matter.
I’m a tie wearing male (legal work dress), and I’m not afraid to do a Windsor knot. No light blue ties though. I reckon I pass.
[Carey – plenty of guys I work and socialize with were pretty pissed about being attacked for being male and wearing blue ties]
Not “pissed”- they just thought it was ridiculous and a sign of desperation from a disintegrating schmozzle of a govt.
The voters got this ages ago, the PBtariat might only get it at about 9pm on 14th Sept!!!
@JV/184
I would have thought that IT WAS RUDE TO WATCH SOMEONE THAT WAS RUDE 😛
RE: Gillard/Rudd
I would like to see a TAG TEAM – but my wish will never happen.
Kevin Bonham…
So Rudd starts his own “progressive party” …what would be his support base …ageing sexist ex-ALP members he hasn’t yet alienated? …Narcissists Anonymous?? …’rent-a-crowd’ extras at $100/day??? …his 1 Million Twitter followers????
He has the ability to fool an awful lot of people who don’t actually know him …only the false chummy persona he projects when the cameras are rolling. But as has often been stated, when people do get to know him they don’t like what they see.
He would be completely incapable of running a party organisation …he’s dis-organised …unable to follow though with ideas …and burns people up with over-work & demeans & abuses them for their endeavors.
He’s a walking disaster area …a human plague …and Labor MUST rid itself of him.
Sounds like I hate him? …yes, I think I do …even more than Tony Abbott.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Preferred LIB Leader: Abbott 32 (-3) Turnbull 62 (+4) #auspol
Details
1m
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Preferred ALP Leader: Gillard 32 (-3) Rudd 58 (+1) #auspol
Details
my post at 192:
THAT WAS NUDE*
Appropos my double leadership change scenario, see above.
blackburnpseph @ 187: One could be excused for thinking that all the major parties are populist grab bags these days.
[Compact Crank
Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 11:41 pm | PERMALINK
Carey – plenty of guys I work and socialize with were pretty pissed about being attacked for being male and wearing blue ties.]
In the immortal words of whatisname:
Are you fucking serious!
How precious little petals the male of the species has become, especially when you’re known internationally now as the most rampant misogynist sexist beasts out.
Oh, let’s avail the international press about how upset you all are about wearing blue ties.
Laughing stock, or what?
Rudd went through a devastating campaign against him from the government in 2007. He’s been through a devastating campaign of vilification against him from his own side since 2010. What you fail to grasp Gecko is that the more shit that get’s thrown at Rudd the more popular he gets with the punters. Whatever the opposition throw at him will slide off without leaving a speck of grime.
Rudd is Fabulon. That’s all there is to it.
I notice the big drop was in the support from men. I have not checked the age breakdown of that, but it looks like there are some cranky blokes out there. Maybe their female partners have been giving them hell this week? 😀