Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

Nielsen offers more evidence that Labor’s already disastrous position has deteriorated still further.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Nielsen poll, conducted for Fairfax from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead blowing out to 57-43 after a relatively mild 54-46 last month. The primary votes are 29% for Labor (down three) and 47% for the Coalition (up three). That becomes 50-50 under a Kevin Rudd leadership scenario, with primary votes of 40% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition. The poll also finds Julia Gillard crashing on preferred prime minister from 46-46 to 50-41 in Tony Abbott’s favour.

I don’t normally give too much coverage to the internals in these polls, but there is very interesting movement beyond the margin of error in the gender breakdowns. Whereas all voting intention figures and personal ratings are little changed on the last poll for women, Labor’s primary vote among men is down seven to 24%, with Gillard down eight on approval to 28% and up ten on disapproval to 69%, and Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister widening from 48-42 to 56-35. The other noteworthy feature of the breakdowns is a big movement away from Labor among respondents under 40, but little change in the older cohorts.

We also had a Galaxy poll of 996 respondents published in the Sunday News Limited papers, which had the Coalition’s lead up from 54-46 to 55-45, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down two), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 11% for the Greens (up one). With Kevin Rudd as leader, the primary votes became 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with two-party preferred at 50-50. Nonetheless, only 34% said Gillard should make way for Rudd with 52% opposed (32-60 among Labor and 33-51 among Coalition supporters).

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week with the Coalition on 47%, the Greens on 8% and two-party preferred at 54-46. Respondents were also asked who they voted for in 2010, an exercise which is generally recognised as being blighted by the tendency of some to mis-remember having voted for the winning party. Sure enough, once “didn’t vote” and “don’t know” are excluded, the results are 44% for Labor, 42% for the Coalition and 8% for the Greens, compared with election results of 38.0%, 43.6% and 11.8%. Respondents saying they had changed their vote were given a list of choices for why, but the samples here are very small and no clear pattern emerges from the results.

The poll also inquires about importance of election issues and the best party to handle them, which for some reason has “management of the economy” declining in importance since February (47% nominated it as one of their three most important issues, compared with 62% in February), with “political leadership” increasing (from 14% to 22%). Labor has gone substantially backwards as the best party for political leadership, along with environmental and population issues. Further questions on asylum seekers have 38% rating the Coalition as having the best policy against 13% for Labor and 7% for the Greens. A five-point scale of the issue’s importance has 37% rating it in the middle, 34% as important, and 24% as less important or not important.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll defies Nielsen in recording a shift to Labor on last week’s result, their primary vote up two to 33% with the Coalition down 1.5% to 44.5% and the Greens down 0.5% to 9%. The Coalition two-party lead narrows from 56-44 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences, and from 56-44 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent allocated preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,558 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. z
    Fraffly fluffy.

    With Higgs-Boson in the bag, dark matter has to be the next biggy. But how to get at it? The description of what the Big Accelerator might tell us about dark matter is essentially fingers crossed on the never never.

  2. So with Rudd as leader the primary votes are 40% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition.

    Timing, it’s all timing now, back to Rudd 😎

  3. Australia you asked for it!!! Good time – all the stats will go south…unemployemnt, interest rates you name it….then we might get some traction

  4. [It looks like having Mr R#dd out and about has not helped, and may even have had a negative effect on ALP polling figures. Maybe he is not the panacea that many believe in?]

    All it does is reinforce the division within the party.

    Which is R*dd’s aim, of course.

  5. @Boerwar/1

    Yup, although, I wouldn’t say never never, as you know Science is never ending improvements 🙂


    So this Tuesday (18) or following Tuesday (25)?

  6. Rummel

    1. Gillard has said she won’t quit. I believe her.

    2. Rudd has said he will only be drafted and that won’t happen without a resignation – see 1.



  7. Either switch to Rudd now and snap an election, or expel him from the party.

    Make the call by week’s end FFS.

    I’m so disappointed with my party.

  8. They tell the people that they are important and they were right 😯

    If Rudd, they’re prime minister, is who they want… then hell, Rudd is who they get 😐

  9. Lie back and think of England polls.

    In time honoured fashioned (sigh):

    1. who commissions polls?
    2. what are their political leanings?
    3. what questions do the pollsters ask?
    4. what is the sequence of the questions?
    5. what is the demeanour of the questioners?

  10. there is some important legislation to clear through the Senate this week

    the Budget, Gonski, tax measures. Nothing happening for now IMHO

  11. Sorry to see this poll result; I am not a fan of Gillard but sh has suffered some appalling abuse this week and took it with grace under pressure. I thought she might have gained a small bounce.

    I think suggestions of Rudd coming back are ridiculous. It is too late. If Rudd came back wihout all those who deposed him being banished he would have no credibility as leader. H could be deposed again after any election. I see no good outcome for Labor from here.

  12. [Compact Crank
    Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 10:19 pm | PERMALINK

    1. Gillard has said she won’t quit. I believe her.

    2. Rudd has said he will only be drafted and that won’t happen without a resignation – see 1.




    Surely Labor members can not be so fatalistic to not try a change to Rudd as there is simply not reason left to stay with Gillard. To stick with Gillard is just crazy.

  13. Should’ve guessed William would this so I’ll post this again

    TLBD – how’s this for an alternative, Julia walks into caucus on Tuesday and expels Kevin from the party???

    That would shake things up a bit 🙂

    Maybe they need to find an outsider Campbell Newman style – any suggestions???

    Overall though, Labor needs to sort itself out


    Rummel – 24% support amongst men says to me Australia isn’t ready for a female PM – sadly

  14. It looks like having Mr R#dd out and about has not helped, and may even have had a negative effect on ALP polling figures. Maybe he is not the panacea that many believe in?

  15. I guess we now know why the Daily Telegraph started attacking Rudd this weekend. The conservative forces are shitting themselves at the thought that he just might become the PM again and ruin their party.

  16. confessions

    I don’t agree with you that Rudd’s aim is to highlight the split in the party. The split is long-standing. The key issue about the nobodies who have used union members (the like of which I represented for many years) to springboard themselves into senior party positions for a career in white cars. I will name the current crew if you like and you can check their histories.

  17. I just caught up with Piers Ackerman’s comments today. I normally avoid Insiders precisely to avoid him. Why Auntie, why? Has he no other job? He was once a journalist and should have known what Barry Cassidy had to remind him of. Surely he should be dismissed from the show too?

    I also just saw a Clive Palmer add on TV. Our nation has a bright future, with men like that lining up to lead…

  18. Rummel

    Rudd is so internally toxic that a Cabinet Minister today, knowing the polling situation, refused to work with Rudd if he became leader again.

  19. Puff, if you were correct, Rudd would be verifiably unpopular, yet evidence says the opposite.

    Blaming Rudd for this result is thoughtless.

  20. I really cant believe how many people are now seeking short term solace in poll conspiracy theories to keep warm at night until the election.

    It is just as sad today as when the Liberal did it six years ago.

  21. The Julia ship is sinking.

    Meguire Bob, Guytaur, Henry, Confessions and many others… get on the life raft and don’t be silly 🙂

  22. Apparently the pv under Rudd would be 11% higher than under Gillard, according to Neilsen. But “only” 5% of that came from the coalition. So where did the other 6% come from?

  23. [I think suggestions of Rudd coming back are ridiculous. It is too late.]

    Some would argue it’s too Early and you’d leave it till the last sitting day so that the Indies and Greens votes are irrelevent.

  24. Reposted from last thread:

    [[Mr Denmore
    Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 9:58 pm | PERMALINK
    Those of you who liked Mike Carlton’s piece might enjoy my latest post at The Failed Estate:

    No wonder we didn’t get on, Mr Denmore.

    Mike Carlton shot his bolt last year, on July 11, 2012, to be exact.

    That was when he threw his hat into Rudd’s ring.

    Eleven days after the introduction of the “fixed carbon price” Carlton marked Gillard with a death cross.

    And, much as I like his dead-beat humour, he can’t bring himself to say he was wrong. Of course he has to keep going with a failed candidate, and refuses to admit his incorrect call.

    It was such a sorry epithet for all you middle-aged, late-aged, white guys – that you couldn’t trust or accept a woman who was able and willing to play the long-game.

    Mr Denmore, if I win my $500 bet with you – that Julia Gillard is still PM by midnight Monday, June 17 – I’d like you to donate $500 to the McGrath Foundation (for breast cancer research).

    That’s not just for women, by the way, but for the men who are also diagnosed with breast cancer.]

  25. Labor just cannot afford to buckle. To give into this terrorism would show what a spineless party they really would be.

    They may lose with Julia Gillard at the helm, but at least they can retain their dignity, which is more than I can say about many other Australians, most particularly the Coalition.

  26. [That becomes 50-50 under a Kevin Rudd leadership scenario, with primary votes of 40% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition. More to follow.]

    I suspect that will only last two weeks if a Ruddstoration is committed. After the third week the Ruddstoration will be begging News Limited to stop its attacks.

    The only good thing about a Ruddstoration will be watching the guy lose and finally leave federal politics. Then he can torment the UN. Or maybe join the Queensland ALP where he white-ant another female leader.


  27. [Rummel – 24% support amongst men says to me Australia isn’t ready for a female PM – sadly]

    the simple answer is Australia was just not ready for Gillard when she removed Kevin Rudd in his first term.

  28. I said it before and I will say it again, the main cause of my skepticism of a Ruddstoration is not because I hate him and think Gillard is magical (or whatever other straw men you want to throw at me) but that he doesn’t want to inherit the responsibility of leading a terminal government to defeat. He doesn’t want his finger prints on that wreck.

    He wants to have people believe that had he led the party to the election, he would’ve won. The only way to keep that alive, whether true or not, is to not allow it to be disproven.

    Having said that, I am confident if he wants the job, it’s probably his. Sorry to say this but “There’s still X months to go!” no longer cuts it and MPs are no doubt very frightened. Right now, self-preservation can make them think drastically (beyond whether or not he’s a fun person.)

    My two cents worth…

  29. [I really cant believe how many people are now seeking short term solace in poll conspiracy theories to keep warm at night until the election.]


    I have been observing the Member for Griffith’s whiteanting for nearly 3 years now, copping abuse left, right and centre from PBers for my effort. Nobody, with the exception of Boerwar intuited his game and what his ultimate aim was.

    And here we are, 3 years later, and most PBers are on my side, having finally seen what the Member for Griffith was up to.

    I was ultimately proven correct with my observations about R*dd. No conspiracy necessary.

    As I’ve said before, and will say again, the ALP will not have any peace while R*dd is in the Caucus.

  30. Well then! This one was even worse than I had expected for Labor. Clearly JG’s speech on Tuesday backfired spectacularly, especially when you look at the sharp drop in Labor’s vote among men. Just dumb on so many levels!

    So what now? Some of the suggestions I’m already seeing here are ridiculous! Expel your most popular person from the party? Oh yes, that should bring about an immediate turn around in the polls, I don’t think!

    Two options for Labor. Stick it out and fight with Julia Gillard, and cop an electoral hiding likely to be worse than that of 1975, or go back to Kevin Rudd and at least have a chance of reengaging the electorate. I don’t go along with it being too late. Yes, it should’ve happened earlier, ideally in February 2012. But Kevin Rudd cuts through like nobody else in the Labor Party, his recent interview on 7:30 was a great reminder of this.

  31. Apparently Rudd was mobbed today at Fairfield (more inner south west of Sydney).

    I hope your definition if mobbed is as inaccurate as your geography

  32. Mithrandir, the ALP has lst a quarter of their vote. A third of them are unenthused.

    Who will get better public support from the campaign?

    Given that the Murdocracy is going nowhere, more shoulders to the wheels is the only counter to his influence.

  33. An interesting point was raised on insiders this morning – and it was not piers akerman’s stupidity. It was that labor would need to wait until the end of the parliamentary session to should they wish to roll julia gillard. The risk of parliamentary chaos on the labor side and a no confidence motion is just too high.

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