Newspoll and Nielsen have both published results this evening, so together with yesterday’s Galaxy the broad outline is as follows (UPDATE: Essential Research and Morgan are now included as well):
• Newspoll is steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 31% for Labor (steady), 46% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 31% and down two on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up one to 37% and up three to 54%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 42-37 to 40-39.
• Nielsen is at 54-46 compared with 57-43 last month, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 32% and the Coalition down five to 44%. Julia Gillard is up three on approval to 40% and down three on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down one to 42% and up one to 54%. The two are now level at 46% all on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 50-42 last time.
• Galaxy has the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 34% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, all recording little change on last time.
• Essential Research is unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of 35% for Labor (up one), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 8% for the Greens (down one).
• The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor steady on 32%, the Coalition down a point to 45.5% and the Greens up half a point to 10%. On both respondent-allocate and previous election preferences, the Coalition lead is down from 56-44 to 55-45.
There’s also a wealth of attitudinal polling concerning the budget and such:
• Nielsen asked if the budget would be “good for Australia”, and got 44% yes and 42% no. Newspoll has 35% believing the budget will be good for the economy (the lowest result since 2000, according to Dennis Shanahan) and 37% believing it will be bad (equal last year, which was the worst result since 1993). Morgan has the budget rated as good by 15%, average by 49% and bad by 29%.
• Nielsen has 15% expecting the budget to make them better off against 52% worse off, while Galaxy has it at 14% and 48% and Essential Research has it at 13% and 36%.
• Newspoll has 41% believing the Coalition could have produced a better budget, and an equal number believing it could not have.
• Abolition of the baby bonus has received strikingly strong support: 68% from Nielsen and 64% from Galaxy, with opposition at 27% and 22%.
• Essential Research shows 20% believing the budget cut spending too much and 34% believing it didn’t cut enough, with 21% opting for the right amount.
• Newspoll has 35% rating Wayne Swan the better treasurer against 39% for Joe Hockey, respectively down two and up one on what I presume to be budget time last year. Similarly, Galaxy has 32% rating Swan “better economic manager” against 36% for Hockey.
• Nielsen asked about constitutional recognition of local government, finding 65% supportive and 18% opposed with little variation between the states. However, I’d be very careful about translating that into likely support at a referendum.
• Essential Research shows 51% believing an Abbott government would “return to WorkChoices”, up three from March, which 26% rate a matter of concern against 15% who do not. Eighty-one per cent of respondents believed workers should be paid more for working outside normal hours.
guytaur,
David raises more possibilities than his cock. Yawn.
So a bus ride, stay the night and return the following day?
Any hotel suggestions? Or where to stay in terms of the general locale if not specific hotel?
Talk of an increase to the GST has been too recent to be reflected in this poll but if Labor keeps hammering the point and Abbott/Hockey keep responding as they have then that willbe a significant issue.
I stayed at an “Aussie hotel” (forget the name) run by Turks from Melbourne. They play the Gallipoli movie every night. Basic but friendly. There are probably better places, I was travelling cheap in 2002.
Thanks Psephos, Mari and everyone else!
This is been a very efficient little spell on PB and I will discuss your suggestions with my friends and report back later in the year!
This is better than an evening on Tripadvisor! 🙂
Much appreciated,
Good night.
Mod lib 137
The trends in almost every western country are in the opposite direction – longer periods of education before working. That also reduces the future participation rate.
I analyse this stuff at work and I am telling you, it will not happen. It is not only the Liberals, SA State (Labor) also has some impossible to reach targets. I presume they come out of business think tanks, rather than any credible analysis.
The labour force currently has 11.6 million employed persons and 686,000 unemployed persons. The participation rate is 65.3%. The growth rate in the employed workforce was 1.3% pa through March 2012/ March 2013.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0
At the present rate of growth, it will take more than 12 years to grow the labour force to add 2 million jobs and bring the total to 13.6 million employed persons. To reach the same number in 10 years, the labour force would have to grow at a compound rate of 1.6% each year.
The growth rate in the labour force from 2006/7 til 2010/11 was 1.78%.
So it is possible to add 2,000,000 jobs over 10 years providing the participation rate expands and the labour force continues to expand. This is not problematic.
The problem is with growth itself. There will only be jobs growth if there is growth in the economy. This is the problem for the LNP. How will they generate growth? The things that need to be done to stimulate growth – directing public investment into infrastructure and education, fixing the tax system so it favours low-middle income earners, using the budget to support demand while the resources boom deflates, reforming the tax code to favour investment rather than consumption – these things are all anathema to the LNP. They have neither the will nor the means to carry them out.
Very from from having a pro-growth stance, the LNP are more likely to destroy it.
One thing is very clear, of the electorate want a strong and growing labour market, they should elect the party that is committed to having one – the ALP.
Newspoll tomorrow according to PVO and his link to the Australian
Night All
I think this was it
http://www.tripadvisor.com.au/Hotel_Review-g816988-d645998-Reviews-TJ_s_Hostel-Eceabat_Canakkale_Province_Turkish_Aegean_Coast.html
I can just see it: “Would you like to pay five per cent more when you go to the shops? Tony thinks you will”
[Diogenes
Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 10:35 pm | PERMALINK
mari
My namesake went to visit the Oracle at Delphi and was advised to debase the currency.]
Yes remember when I read the book O/s last year and asked you on PB if this was who your avatar was?
jaundiced view@136
I hadn’t heard that before but I like it!
Goodnight
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 4m
#Nielsen Poll Removing the Baby Bonus: Support 68 Oppose 27 #auspol
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GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 15m
#Galaxy Poll Better economic manager: Swan 32 Hockey 36 #auspol
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Ok I am off now that doona is beckoning me.
MOD LIB don’t drive in Istanbul Turks more scary that the Greeks and Italians put together
Very similar figures on biffing the baby bonus from Nielsen and Galaxy. Maybe the weekend’s polling is a baby-bonus-biffing bounce 🙂
(I don’t really believe that but I would like it if a government would be rewarded for getting rid of that little piece of Howard-Costello policy.)
In Istanbul near the great Mosque is the ancient undergfound resevoir which has lights and walkways and is remarkable,,,as is the great former christian church of Aiya Sophia nearby and close to the Blue Mosque
Also across the Golden Horn in Pera,there a long street of fine 19th century shops and arcades..Itikal Caddessi(with antique trams) and great food…and nearby the grand Pera Palace Hotel where Kemal Ataurk and Agatha Christie stayed(but not together.)..nice place for a drink or a meal(but wear a jacket ..it’s a bit like Melbourne’s Windsor)…rather formal and grand
Dining alone one night hear the nearby the Pera Palace , a well-dressed Turk sitting alone at a nearby table in the restaurant drinking coffee,heard me speak english to the waiter…and drew me into conversation and said he was just off to watch a great Belly Dancing show and would I like to join him(The answer was no…but He persisted) I finished my meal and left
I quess he was a tout looking for some stupid tourist who would finish up ..where.. ???..and a good deal poorer
A few nights later I dined there again(great food) and he was there again with the same line
So be careful in Istanbul…anyway I hate belly dancing
Great place though… Istanbul
Briefly
Thanks for digging out the figures. I would still say we will not repeat those job growth rates from the past decade, because a lot of people are about to retire.
Thanks deblonay….sound advice.
Anyway, I have a belly dancing show every time I hobble into the shower….
Good night.
womble@158
Dare I say, if that is the only negative they got out of the poll for that article, the numbers must be bad for LNP.
In Turkey Visit Bursa
_____________
An interesting old ottoman city (but having ancient roots)
,,,Bursa is south of the Sea of Marmora
One gets a large ferry from Istanbul to a place called Yalova on the eastern shore of the Sea of Marmora(that takes several hours…and you stop briefly at one of the several Islands off shore,,,called the Princes’ Islands,,and are very nice too
Then onto Yalova where one gets a comfortable bus to Bursa…set on hills and with many ancient structures and markets…and with much to see
Once the Grand Bazaar was a terminus for the Silk Road in ancient times…many hotels for accom/safe and a great place for walking …quite safe and like everywhere in Turkey… great cheap food
” So unless the national polls are being too kind to Labor somehow then some percentage of the local disaster rumours must be rubbish.”
Or the polls are.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/politics-news/treasurer-wayne-swans-pre-election-budget-a-flop-newspoll-shows/story-fn59nqld-1226646329860
[…There was also the strongest indication yet of a growing belief in the Coalition’s economic management, with the highest support in 20 years for the suggestion that the alternative government would have brought down a better budget.]
One way I could reconcile the difference between national polling and the local doomsday polling is that they are performed by different sets of pollsters.
How often do we get local polling by Newspoll, Nielsen, Morgan and Essential? It seems to be mainly done by ReachTel and Galaxy.
[#Galaxy Poll Better economic manager: Swan 32 Hockey 36 #auspol]
Talk about a small gap. And only 68% combined.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 32 (+3) L/NP 44 (-5) #auspol
@jv/175
wow -5? where the other 2 go?
All the polls seem to be arriving at a similar position.
Or adjacent position
Palmer must have taken a really big chunk of LNP votes. 😉
Perhaps the old traditional ‘narrowing’ is now a reduction in the range of polls to between 56-54/44-46, from 60-52/40-48.
You know Shanahan is desperate when he has to cling on to a budget flop angle. Interesting Newspoll coming up me thinks.
zoidlord
[wow -5? where the other 2 go?]
All will no doubt be revealed. Green, other, Katter, Clive…
I caught JoHo on the replay of Insiders earlier tonight while waiting for Elementary to start.
I usually don’t bother watching it — the vacuous and indolent recapitulation of coalition talking points from the panel and Cassidy is generally too much for me — but this performance by Hockey was simply shameful. He looked like an arrogant and ignorant ranting fool — something even Cassidy wasn’t quite able to bury.
It is a testimony to the power of the Murdochracy and the political ineptitude of the ALP that the LNP is even close this year, leave aside in front in the polls.
My guess is that it will close to 52-48 or 51-49 to Libs a month out from the poll, then anything can happen by election day – probably a 50-50 chance either side.
Perhaps the Oz/ABC will try to create a scandal over Julia not watching Downton Abbey or some’in.
In my experience, older women really despise the baby bonus. “No-one paid me five grand to have a kid!”
They are also not impressed with $1500 strollers and $500 nappy-changing tables.
Newspoll 56-44
Primaries: ALP 31, LNP 46, Green 9
[In my experience, older women really despise the baby bonus. “No-one paid me five grand to have a kid!”
So how do they feel about :monkey: PPL scheme?? 🙂
Newspoll says voters were “evenly split overall on whether the Treasurer’s sixth budget was good or bad for the economy”, so I don’t know where they get the “flop” headline from.
[167
Socrates
Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 11:14 pm | Permalink
Briefly
Thanks for digging out the figures. I would still say we will not repeat those job growth rates from the past decade, because a lot of people are about to retire.]
Socrates, I agree, the participation rate may tumble and labour force:population ration will also decline. These forces are really on the supply side of the labour force. We can see in the current year’s data what happens when labour demand starts to ease.
The best indication of this is hours worked rather than simply numbers in work. We saw last year that the growth rate in labour demand as expressed in hours worked declined through the year. Growth went from above 1% at the start of 2012 to nil growth by December 2012.
This means expansion in the availability of work – the demand for labour – was easing all year. The data this year are very hard to interpret because the ABS changed its methodology, so we have had three consecutive months of improbably large moves in both directions. It is really hard to know if labour demand is growing, stable or falling right now.
Unless the next Government very consciously sets out to support growth and demand, jobs will suffer. We saw this during 2012 as a result of fiscal tightening when jobs fell even though investment was very strong. We already know we will see declines in private investment through 2013/14 and 2014/15. In the absence of other forces – significant fiscal or monetary measures – the decline in investment will lead to jobs losses.
Gillard Satisfied 31, Dissatisfied 59
Abbott Satisfied 37, Dissatisfied 54
PPM Gillard 39, Abbott 40
From above, William.
[so I don’t know where they get the “flop” headline from.]
Their executive of course.
William, the OO just fabricate stuff. Luckily no-one believes them.
time to retire
Are James J’s numbers predictions or has there been a NP?
Let’s face it Imacca — this side of a $100,000 grant, nobody is going close to breaking even on a child. Nobody in their right mind would have a child for $5k.
32% primary vote on Nielsen. Pretty consistent across the board if you ask me. 32-34%
William
Given they need a miracle, ‘evenly split’ on the budget is about as useful as a flop.
So Newspoll is still ‘meh’?