Budget polling: Newspoll 56-44, Nielsen and Galaxy 54-46

Post-budget polls suggest little change in the voting intention trend, with respondents anticipating a negative impact for them personally and a mixed response for the economy.

Newspoll and Nielsen have both published results this evening, so together with yesterday’s Galaxy the broad outline is as follows (UPDATE: Essential Research and Morgan are now included as well):

• Newspoll is steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 31% for Labor (steady), 46% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 31% and down two on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up one to 37% and up three to 54%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 42-37 to 40-39.

Nielsen is at 54-46 compared with 57-43 last month, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 32% and the Coalition down five to 44%. Julia Gillard is up three on approval to 40% and down three on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down one to 42% and up one to 54%. The two are now level at 46% all on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 50-42 last time.

Galaxy has the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 34% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, all recording little change on last time.

Essential Research is unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of 35% for Labor (up one), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 8% for the Greens (down one).

• The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor steady on 32%, the Coalition down a point to 45.5% and the Greens up half a point to 10%. On both respondent-allocate and previous election preferences, the Coalition lead is down from 56-44 to 55-45.

There’s also a wealth of attitudinal polling concerning the budget and such:

• Nielsen asked if the budget would be “good for Australia”, and got 44% yes and 42% no. Newspoll has 35% believing the budget will be good for the economy (the lowest result since 2000, according to Dennis Shanahan) and 37% believing it will be bad (equal last year, which was the worst result since 1993). Morgan has the budget rated as good by 15%, average by 49% and bad by 29%.

• Nielsen has 15% expecting the budget to make them better off against 52% worse off, while Galaxy has it at 14% and 48% and Essential Research has it at 13% and 36%.

• Newspoll has 41% believing the Coalition could have produced a better budget, and an equal number believing it could not have.

• Abolition of the baby bonus has received strikingly strong support: 68% from Nielsen and 64% from Galaxy, with opposition at 27% and 22%.

• Essential Research shows 20% believing the budget cut spending too much and 34% believing it didn’t cut enough, with 21% opting for the right amount.

• Newspoll has 35% rating Wayne Swan the better treasurer against 39% for Joe Hockey, respectively down two and up one on what I presume to be budget time last year. Similarly, Galaxy has 32% rating Swan “better economic manager” against 36% for Hockey.

• Nielsen asked about constitutional recognition of local government, finding 65% supportive and 18% opposed with little variation between the states. However, I’d be very careful about translating that into likely support at a referendum.

• Essential Research shows 51% believing an Abbott government would “return to WorkChoices”, up three from March, which 26% rate a matter of concern against 15% who do not. Eighty-one per cent of respondents believed workers should be paid more for working outside normal hours.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,047 comments on “Budget polling: Newspoll 56-44, Nielsen and Galaxy 54-46”

  1. Oh Ctar- I don’t know those areas well, I only stayed for two weeks..but it was two weeks of bliss..and I was alone, knew nobody there and had no trouble whatsoever..I met taxi drivers who listened to classical music instead of raving talkback,I read newspapers with real in depth discussions of issues, met people who spoke about economics and art rationally, and was surrounded by art and history..Then I came back to Sydney …

  2. 2994

    I see you are still in absolutes on this subject. It varies from family to family, depending on closeness. It also depends on whether it is going to the grandparent(s)` home or the grandparent(s) coming to the parent(s)` home.

  3. davidwh

    Good to hear you’re having a break from demands.

    Sorry if I shit-stirred too much; couldn’t resist. Hope you took it in good humour. If not, keep guessing!

  4. Its good that people are starting to focus on the economic management issue. The libs have polled well in this area to date and appear to have plenty of hubris about that.

    The past week has shown that whatever discreet issues one might have with the government or the Labor party more broadly, they are doing an excellent job of managing what is possible to manage in the macroeconomy.

    On the other hand the Libs are now showing to everyone that they have not bothered to actually sit down and work out how to run the place. They have banked everything on Uncle Rupe and a few sociopathic moneysponges gifting them the top jobs.

    The only examples of what they reckon they’ll do that they have given to date tend to be based around the already rich getter richer at the expense of the rest of us.

    Nothing from them on how they propose a long term surplus outcome without hurting a lot of people.

    Thank goodness they weren’t running the place when the GFC struck. For we’d all be long rooned.

    Hip pocket nerve says these people will hurt your hip pocket bigtime.

  5. SeanT @ 2999…that is funny. You attempt to justify your umbilical attachment to the LNP by blaming Labor. What have they ever done to you (except stand up for your rights and dignity?)

  6. [What have they ever done to you]

    Well if you look at NSW quite a few of them have helped line their own pockets at the expense of the NSW Tax payer.

    That alone should see them out of power for a generation.

  7. • guytaur

    I will be voting Labor in the Reps and Greens in the Senate.
    If I had my way a repeat of this Parliament for policy would be great.
    I woould have an Independent Speaker and put Windsor in the Cabinet instead of Rudd.

    I’ll probably vote the same way. The WA Greens senators have been excellent. I would rather one of them elected than Joe Bullock, though I understand that is not how it works.

    My HOR vote will go to Labor if for no other reason than they are the grown ups when it comes to managing the overall economy. I don’t agree with them on a number of issues but the Libs offer nothing but bullshit and more bullshit.

    Agree Re: Windsor in Cabinet. Now that would be one hell of a captain’s pick.

  8. A late night quiz about The City of Light
    Who said that Paris is the city against which all other must be judged?
    I based the question on a great new book”Parisiennes”..a book which looks at famous people who have lived, worked or just visited Paris

    Prize will be a trip for two to Paris if William will pay the fares…Go on William !

  9. Sean Tisme@2999

    Good example is the song and dance they made about Nova Peris because she’s an Aboriginal woman. Nothing about whether she’s a good senate candidate… just she’s an Aboriginal woman. Thats all that matters. So much spin.

    She’ll probably be a better Senator than a lot of the hacks on both sides there at the moment but that’s not saying very much.

  10. KB, I’m sure you’re right. By some accident, I’ve followed Peris on twitter for a while. She is a thoughtful person with coherent views. I like her. And she sure has the energy and determination to succeed.

  11. BTW in his last troubled days in Paris Oscar Wilde one night walking along a bridge over the Seine came across Nellie Melba..whom he had known in his glory days in London
    He asked her for money and she gave him what she had in her handbag(though she says of him in her bio that she never liked him)

  12. 3030

    King Henry IV of France. (He converted from being a Huguenot Protestant to a Catholic to become King).

  13. I stayed in the Hotel Henri IV in 1980. The sheets on the bed had not been washed. The solitary hole in the ground toilet off the courtyard was flooded over the footpads and the chap in the office had a revolver on his desk.

  14. Tom the First post 3033…right about”Henry 1V top marks.
    The answer to the statement about Paris being the City against which all others are judged..was …amazingly..Adolf Hitler…on his ONE DAY visit to Paris after the Fall of France in 1940

    He flew in at dawn and did all the tourist things…was driven to each major attraction…and photographed at the Eiffel Tower/The Opera / The Louve ?etc

    He took only a german sculptor Arne Brecker…who did those heroic nudes of aryan types for the Berlin Olympics(and survided thw war too)

    He flew home to Berlin at dusk…and never returned

    In 1944 as Liberation approached he planned to devestate all the great monuments and bridges …hence his telephoned requested to his commanding General in Paris ” Is Paris Burning” …but the General Cholitz…no Nazi..had made up his mind to defy Hitler and surrendered the city to the Allied armies (Years later De Gaulle learned of this story and had the General come back as guest and made a Freeman of the City of Paris) nice end to the story

  15. I doubt the odds are going to go out any further now so have bet two ‘savers’:

    Labor – Brand $50 at $2.10
    Windsor – New England $100 at $2.55

    My cheeky bets are:
    Labor – Brisbane $10 at $5.00
    Labor – Casey $10 at $8.00
    Labor – Aston $10 at $6.50
    Labor – Durack $20 at $51.00
    Labor – Sworn in Government $100 at $8.00

    I rarely bet these days and only have an active account with Sportsbet. There are probably better odds on some of these elsewhere.

    Memo to self – attend more BBQ’s between now and September.

  16. The AUD just shed over 1% (nearly 130 basis points) against the USD in about one hour of trade…now under USD0.97…Bernanke giving investors more reasons to buy the USD

  17. good luck with the bets, norwester. I think the odds are very fattering for the LNP.

    It is against my nature to have a bet this far out, but the Libs’ train wreck in offering a realistic and palatable economic alternative may start to sink in among the electorate as the real election looms closer. Some of these odds just look way over for mine.

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