Newspoll and Nielsen have both published results this evening, so together with yesterday’s Galaxy the broad outline is as follows (UPDATE: Essential Research and Morgan are now included as well):
• Newspoll is steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 31% for Labor (steady), 46% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 31% and down two on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up one to 37% and up three to 54%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 42-37 to 40-39.
• Nielsen is at 54-46 compared with 57-43 last month, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 32% and the Coalition down five to 44%. Julia Gillard is up three on approval to 40% and down three on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down one to 42% and up one to 54%. The two are now level at 46% all on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 50-42 last time.
• Galaxy has the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 34% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, all recording little change on last time.
• Essential Research is unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of 35% for Labor (up one), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 8% for the Greens (down one).
• The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor steady on 32%, the Coalition down a point to 45.5% and the Greens up half a point to 10%. On both respondent-allocate and previous election preferences, the Coalition lead is down from 56-44 to 55-45.
There’s also a wealth of attitudinal polling concerning the budget and such:
• Nielsen asked if the budget would be “good for Australia”, and got 44% yes and 42% no. Newspoll has 35% believing the budget will be good for the economy (the lowest result since 2000, according to Dennis Shanahan) and 37% believing it will be bad (equal last year, which was the worst result since 1993). Morgan has the budget rated as good by 15%, average by 49% and bad by 29%.
• Nielsen has 15% expecting the budget to make them better off against 52% worse off, while Galaxy has it at 14% and 48% and Essential Research has it at 13% and 36%.
• Newspoll has 41% believing the Coalition could have produced a better budget, and an equal number believing it could not have.
• Abolition of the baby bonus has received strikingly strong support: 68% from Nielsen and 64% from Galaxy, with opposition at 27% and 22%.
• Essential Research shows 20% believing the budget cut spending too much and 34% believing it didn’t cut enough, with 21% opting for the right amount.
• Newspoll has 35% rating Wayne Swan the better treasurer against 39% for Joe Hockey, respectively down two and up one on what I presume to be budget time last year. Similarly, Galaxy has 32% rating Swan “better economic manager” against 36% for Hockey.
• Nielsen asked about constitutional recognition of local government, finding 65% supportive and 18% opposed with little variation between the states. However, I’d be very careful about translating that into likely support at a referendum.
• Essential Research shows 51% believing an Abbott government would “return to WorkChoices”, up three from March, which 26% rate a matter of concern against 15% who do not. Eighty-one per cent of respondents believed workers should be paid more for working outside normal hours.
[Mod Lib@2881
Thanks, but to clarify, my view is that the term “marriage” should be completely removed from any legislation.
The state should have nothing to do with marriage, whatsoever.
The state should only determine who gets your house, who gets to turn off the ventilator and specific practical questions like that. We should notify the state who we want to make those decisions, who gets the house when we die, and who is dependent on you.]
This just denies the reality of our existence and our implicit psychological needs to establish belonging, trust, shared experience, security, interdependence, connectedness and identity. These things are not just formalities. They are intrinsic to health.
We register many of our belongings – cars, boats, real estate, enrollments, rights, duties and contracts of every kind. And we have laws to ensure their terms are predictable, recognized, defensible, reliable and fair.
It is inconceivable that we would not register our relationships with those we love as well and to ensure these are also free, fair, recognized, defensible, durable and subject to law.
Perhaps, ML, you don’t feel any such needs, but most others certainly do. Even if there were no statutes covering marriage, there would always be law. This is unavoidable. So the question of who can marry will not go away. It is implicit in the social nature of our lives. Eventually, people will realise there is no reason to prevent same sex partners from marrying. The only obstacle now is prejudice, and one day this will yield to justice.
CTaR1
Well, there was a good sized puddle outside Sing Australia after we had finished singing ‘Shackleton’ and left to go home.
I’m sure Mod Lib et al are embarrassed by Joe Hockey.
I realise Robb would be worse.
But, seriously, if you’re going to vote Coalition, then you must want a Treasurer who knows how to articulate an alternative.
What a let-down.
The only question Hockey answered with any authority was the PPL versus annual leave stuff.
And that was pathetic.
I’m not saying you need despair, but you must be close to it.
BW – They looked like APC’s to me.
The Abrams stuff is up north I think.
If CC is around he could advise.
[it realy makes one wonder is it all sour grapes with abbott]
He has no grace.
Are we STILL doing SSM?
Well, a Far Right guy has just taken the opportunity to blow his brains out on the altar of Notre Dame during mass in front of 1500. Holy Cow.
Apparently he had strong feelings against SSM.
Scratch one vote right there.
CTaR1
Those norty ignorant newsies confusing a tank with an APC.
If enough people follow his lead then the problem would more or less solve itself.
BW – F#ck’n Paris.
I’ve never liked the place.
[Perhaps, ML, you don’t feel any such needs, but most others certainly do. Even if there were no statutes covering marriage, there would always be law. This is unavoidable. So the question of who can marry will not go away. It is implicit in the social nature of our lives. Eventually, people will realise there is no reason to prevent same sex partners from marrying. ]
You misunderstand.
I have no problem, whatsoever, with gay people marrying. Don’t ask, don’t tell, don’t stop as they say! :devil:
The problem with all of this is that the Christian lobby is saying that same sex marriage undermines “their marriage” and is lobbying the politicians to prevent it. My argument is that the politicians should say, “Well, fine. We have decided that we have nothing to do with marriage whatsoever”. You marry whoever you like, you do whatever ceremony you like, you get old white men dressed in frocks to incant latin over your heads if you wish, that is your right. It is also your neighbour John’s right to shack up with Brad and do whatever they want as consenting adults as long as they are not hurting anyone.
None of this activity has anything to do with the state.
@Boerwar/2950
of course! 🙂
SR, Hockey is either just slack or is stupid or is a coward. He is possibly all three. This country faces some serious challenges, and is entitled to expect a Treasurer who has at least thought about our situation and can articulate his opinions. He just bumbles, as if bumbling is enough. He could not be more wrong. It will not be enough to act from ideology or from political expedience. Not at all.
CTaR1
I love Paris with a passion.
Have been to Notre Dame to watch the monthly procession showing of the Crown of Thorns… a religio/politico/tourist event unparalled in the rest of the known universe. Various of the ill went up to touch the container in the hope of a miracle. None were evident on the day. But, but, but… Clouds of incense. Chants of Latin. The organ booming. Sunlight through the stained glass windows. Mon Dieu. Superbe.
There is also a little brass plaque off to one side commemorating the Te Deum that De Gaulle and LeClerc sang upon the Liberation of Paris…
briefly
Given his performance I wonder if at some level Hockey is trying to lose.
It would explain that performance. IMO nothing else really explains it.
From an earlier question about what I don’t like about my party of choice. I’m a Liberal voter mainly who will likely vote Labor in September. Why?
I passionately support our democratic system and hate the way the Coalition has trashed it since 2010. We should all accept the judgement of the people even if they seem to get it wrong sometimes. Abbott has never accepted the peoples decision in 2010.
I am passionately against smear campaigning so do not like the way the Coalition has over-played Thomson, Slipper and AWU.
On policy it’s a bit of a mixture between Labor and the Coalition however I need to see much more policy detail before coming down on one side or the other.
Finally I have grave reservations about the suitability of Abbott to become PM and that is probably the deciding factor.
In summary if nothing major changes I will probably vote Labor.
ML @ 2690….but trying to remove marriage from the statute books just begs the question. Such things will always be subject to law. And, surely, it is better for Parliament to make laws than for judges to do so. Were this not the case, we could dispense with the whole democratic process, not just on this but on other issues too.
There is no easy way out. If SSM is to become a reality, we will have to enact the changes.
BW – You need to see the suburbs.
On de Gaulle I have a Bank of Syria and Lebanon bank note circa 1941 with his signature on it.
I like the country-side.
well chosen , davidwh 🙂
davidwh
Nice to see some sanity from a conservative leaning voter.
I think this puts you close the same page as Malcolm Fraser.
dwh @ 2965
Good post, IMHO.
I am ready to vote for whichever of Labor or Liberal looks to be most determined to do something systematic and significant about AGW.
[Hockey is either just slack or is stupid or is a coward.]
Worse, he thinks the audience this afternoon could give a shit about whether his cousin went broke or not.
They didn’t.
@davidwh/2965
I still not sure If I vote for either major party, but I applaud your standing.
In my case, NDIS, Gonski, NBN and Old Media (they need a good kick up the arse).
[2964
guytaur
briefly
Given his performance I wonder if at some level Hockey is trying to lose.
It would explain that performance. IMO nothing else really explains it.]
He has looked totally rattled to me over the last few months. He knows he’s not up to it – that he faces conflict with both Abbott and Robb, and probably with half the backbench too. Hockey is not made for conflict, but for lolling about.
Look what PvO is spreading
@MathiasCormann: In fact contrary to Swan’s false assertions here http://t.co/tsVrK4PTdK PBO shows strong structural surplus in 01/02. http://t.co/xO6o7amEKn
Tomorrows lies tonight.
CTaR1
‘BW – You need to see the suburbs.
Fortunately the Banlieu do not count as Paris.
‘On de Gaulle I have a Bank of Syria and Lebanon bank note circa 1941 with his signature on it.’
My suggestion would be not to try to use it in Damascus just now.
‘I like the country-side.’
We had an enormous amount of fun tracing the course of a river called the bievre. By the time it hits Paris it is entirly underground (in fact it ran under the footpath outside our tenement) thence to the Seine. It ran all the way out into the country side.
davidwh
What’s best needs to be paid some attention.
I’ll leave it to you but I think you’re heading right.
CTaR1
Speaking about Paris’s suburbs..
We were there for a New Year. For weeks before it there were very strange articles in the papers and items of the TV. We could not make them out.
Anyway, the Government of the Day mobilized the gendarmes and everything in uniform and deployed them to defend the republic against the bad guys.
The day after New Years Eve the Government announced a major victory because only around 3,700 cars had been torched on New Year’s Eve.
BW
[We had an enormous amount of fun tracing the course of a river ]
London has a number of the same.
I will assuredly vote Labor because – whatever else one say of them – they will pursue economic policies that will protect jobs. There are not a lot of things that are certain in politics, but one thing is: deep down, the LNP could not care less about full employment.
CTaR1
We were also fortunate enough to be virtually adopted by two french families who had a chateau in the countryside near Poitiers, hospitable family members in Normandy…(I have dim but fond memories of flaming calvados) and a cottage nestled in the foothills of the Pyrenees.
Lordy. It is the 11th minute of the 11th hour. To bed. Good night all.
BW – You’re a riot attraction.
If I recall correctly you were in England during the last bombings.
[My suggestion would be not to try to use it in Damascus just now.]
The French are excited about what’s going on there.
I will be voting Labor in the Reps and Greens in the Senate.
If I had my way a repeat of this Parliament for policy would be great.
I woould have an Independent Speaker and put Windsor in the Cabinet instead of Rudd.
I’m with Boerwar on this one – AGW is the big one and the choice is very clearly in the ALP’s favour.
If the Libs woke up to rationality on AGW and they could give me some confidence in their ministerial team then I might consider voting for them, but the LNP seem to be getting more luddite by the day and their frontbench is so chock full of losers there is absolutely no danger of this happening.
I forgot to add that if I vote Labor I will make both Bemused and my mum proud of me 🙂
[davidwh
Posted Wednesday, May 22, 2013 at 10:58 pm | Permalink
From an earlier question about what I don’t like about my party of choice. I’m a Liberal voter mainly who will likely vote Labor in September. Why?
I passionately support our democratic system and hate the way the Coalition has trashed it since 2010. We should all accept the judgement of the people even if they seem to get it wrong sometimes. Abbott has never accepted the peoples decision in 2010.
I am passionately against smear campaigning so do not like the way the Coalition has over-played Thomson, Slipper and AWU.
On policy it’s a bit of a mixture between Labor and the Coalition however I need to see much more policy detail before coming down on one side or the other.
Finally I have grave reservations about the suitability of Abbott to become PM and that is probably the deciding factor.
In summary if nothing major changes I will probably vote Labor.]
David
Whoever you finally vote for it is clear you are a man of principle and that’s what really counts. You are an excellent contributor to PB.
@guardiannews: IMF calls for UK government to stimulate growth http://t.co/d9XvHKj4Nm
Deep down they are all a bunch of pr$%ks cut from the same mold. They couldn’t give two hoots about anything except their own pay/super and conditions. they all send their kids to private schools, have private insurance, attend the same elite groups and functions, hold the same fund raisers and parties. I will vote ind
[The French are excited]
Agitated would have been a better word choice.
I went to Paris for the first time this year ( Thanks ALP for the high dollar), I fell sinfully in love with the place. I totally adore it, the Parisians are wonderful, the city is amazing and overwhelmingly beautiful…and it snowed…sigh…
I wish I could live there for ever..
liyana
I’ve visited the Salient area many times but my favorite is up the hill from Menton.
RE NOTRE DAME SHOOTING
______________
The suicide was a member of the far right …a dark and poisonous crew in France
Think Dreyfus/Vichy !!
He was also a supporter of the OAS..the Secret Army of right-wingers who tried to overthrow De Gaulle when he made the peace in Algeria.with the FLN..in 1961
There are probably links with Le Pen’s National Front
But the shooting
Good night
davidwh
How’s the grand-parenting going?
Have you spread the word about the amazing responsibility of grandparents or have you gone back to babysitting?
As for the wonder that is Paris Woody Allen captured it wonderfully in”Midnight in Paris”
As Hemingway said “Paris is a movable feast “
Deb
Nutty stuff.
If I make Monroux in July I’ll check out your castle.
Is there a password?
Sarah I am in a bit of a drought at present and haven’t had to engage in any grand-parenting responsibilities since Sunday and probably won’t see any of the children for a couple of weeks. We have locked in the three eldest children for a four day visit in late June during school holidays so will get plenty of opportunity to improve those responsibilities.
Had an interesting chat with a friend this evening who up until now has seemed very determined to vote for the Liberals. But to my surprise he seems to have done a complete turnaround and now says he wouldn’t think of voting for Abbott. When pressed on what had cause him to change his mind he said he was angry at the suggestion by some Victorian liberals that the ABC should be sold off. It’s the only media outlet he listens to or watches and he is not at all reassured by Abbotts denials that he is planning to do that.
Now if we can just get a few hundred thousand more like my friend to wake up before it’s too late, the government might yet be in the hunt.
I’m voting Coalition because Labor is a corrupt organisation about propping up Union Mates and makes decision 99% of the time based on spin and only 1% on substance.
Good example is the song and dance they made about Nova Peris because she’s an Aboriginal woman. Nothing about whether she’s a good senate candidate… just she’s an Aboriginal woman. Thats all that matters. So much spin.
Sean – you’re full of it.