Newspoll and Nielsen have both published results this evening, so together with yesterday’s Galaxy the broad outline is as follows (UPDATE: Essential Research and Morgan are now included as well):
• Newspoll is steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 31% for Labor (steady), 46% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 31% and down two on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up one to 37% and up three to 54%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 42-37 to 40-39.
• Nielsen is at 54-46 compared with 57-43 last month, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 32% and the Coalition down five to 44%. Julia Gillard is up three on approval to 40% and down three on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down one to 42% and up one to 54%. The two are now level at 46% all on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 50-42 last time.
• Galaxy has the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 34% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, all recording little change on last time.
• Essential Research is unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of 35% for Labor (up one), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 8% for the Greens (down one).
• The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor steady on 32%, the Coalition down a point to 45.5% and the Greens up half a point to 10%. On both respondent-allocate and previous election preferences, the Coalition lead is down from 56-44 to 55-45.
There’s also a wealth of attitudinal polling concerning the budget and such:
• Nielsen asked if the budget would be “good for Australia”, and got 44% yes and 42% no. Newspoll has 35% believing the budget will be good for the economy (the lowest result since 2000, according to Dennis Shanahan) and 37% believing it will be bad (equal last year, which was the worst result since 1993). Morgan has the budget rated as good by 15%, average by 49% and bad by 29%.
• Nielsen has 15% expecting the budget to make them better off against 52% worse off, while Galaxy has it at 14% and 48% and Essential Research has it at 13% and 36%.
• Newspoll has 41% believing the Coalition could have produced a better budget, and an equal number believing it could not have.
• Abolition of the baby bonus has received strikingly strong support: 68% from Nielsen and 64% from Galaxy, with opposition at 27% and 22%.
• Essential Research shows 20% believing the budget cut spending too much and 34% believing it didn’t cut enough, with 21% opting for the right amount.
• Newspoll has 35% rating Wayne Swan the better treasurer against 39% for Joe Hockey, respectively down two and up one on what I presume to be budget time last year. Similarly, Galaxy has 32% rating Swan “better economic manager” against 36% for Hockey.
• Nielsen asked about constitutional recognition of local government, finding 65% supportive and 18% opposed with little variation between the states. However, I’d be very careful about translating that into likely support at a referendum.
• Essential Research shows 51% believing an Abbott government would “return to WorkChoices”, up three from March, which 26% rate a matter of concern against 15% who do not. Eighty-one per cent of respondents believed workers should be paid more for working outside normal hours.
centaur:
Sounds like you need to stay home on election day.
Mod Lib@2881
At the moment, the state is required to record births, deaths and marriages.
These records are of great interest to genealogists. I have sometimes wondered what would happen if the trend for people not to go through a marriage ceremony, but to have children without any formal union, were to continue to grow.
I guess the father and mother are still put on birth certificates, so all is not lost.
You’ve got it.
I think we should have a special moment on PB, sort of like the Christmas Truce in the trenches in 1914 where we do nothing but post about what’s bad about the party we usually vote for and what’s good about the other mob 😉
Yes 🙂 I am still laughing about that little gem!
So, how likely is it that Hockey would do a Buswell?
Mod
I don’t think that’s it, actually. I think it’s because people just don’t want to answer *your* questions :P.
Fine, simply legislate that all business has to pay it for 26 weeks at the woman’s full rate of pay. If its a “workplace entitlement” it should be paid by the workplace.
SarahRoberts
Spot on. Hockey is such a lightweight (intellectually, at least)
🙂
Hockey sniffing chairs women have sat on would totally test my eeeuuuwww meter.
boerwar
Can’t see George Clooney sniffing a chair or humping a Green.
Or do you mean something else?
Well done!
I answered your silly questions, yet you’re still whingeing and moaning about it.
WTF?
N
‘….what’s good about the other mob’
Let’s see. What is good about the Liberals?
*thinks*
Well, the Liberals are still out of government. So the good thing is that they do not have the chance to stick it to earth’s climate, get rid of our wildlife, saddle business with an unfair tax that disproportionately benefits rich parents, give the finance industry spivs free rein, and shower the bush with Nationals Socialism. They can still only lie about the GST and waffle on about floating your boat. And so on and so forth.
Do folk here not like me (sad face)
Should ALP MPs have supported same sex marriage?
Well, if Hockey wants to have an affair with Adam Bandt and bring his vote over to the Coalition I am all for it 😉
Mod, it’s not that, it’s just that you’re a stirrer :P. Makes people suspicious, especially if the question doesn’t appear relevant to the discussion at hand.
I think I’ve worked out Joe Hockey’s cunning plot.
He wants to turn Australia into a tax haven! A paradise for tax dodgers like in these examples
BW – Get the cleaners in for the chairs.
You never know where Christopher has been.
Laura Tingle pinged the “workplace entitlement” issue on Insiders.
If the boss has to pay it, it’s a workplace entitlement.
If it’s collected as tax and disbursed out of general rev, it’s welfare.
She said the coalition’s arguments about this are bizarre.
sprocket
‘boerwar
Can’t see George Clooney sniffing a chair or humping a Green.
Or do you mean something else?’
No, I believe that Hockey is rather better behaved in personal terms than Buswell.
No, my concern is that Hockey will follow Buswell’s behaviour qua treasurer.
During the most stupendous mining boom of any Australian state ever, Treasurer Buswell has overseen a phenomenal growth in state debt and has just been rewarded with formal ratings watch warnings from two different ratings agencies.
The only good thing we can say about Buswell is that he has failed to damage Swan’s 9A.
Sarah Roberts.. “There’s something terribly wrong in Coalitionsville.”
There is no Opp’n…there is only a massive PR. job put up by Rupert, fronted by an ex pugilist and spriuked by a bunch of Old Media has-beens…..All under a name usurped from the leftover squatocracy.
sprocket
Yes. ‘Business Regulation’
And his views are laughed at.
I guess I can’t argue with that.
Fair cop
Yes, Karen Middleton SBS did (not to be mistaken with Kate Middleton, RF).
And that’s when Hocks went into his sadness at being the first, laughed-at PATERNITY leave recipent – where he drew distinction by being the first-ever shadow minister for p/maternity leave to deliver used disposable nappies into landfill.
And, fuck, he thought he earned every second of that leave.
What a fucking jerk.
@Boewar/2922
Not really buzzing for Buswell – isn’t it?
Gauss
Just been following up your mate Tisdale. He has found a new explanation for CC. No, it is not sunspots, space rays, insolation,or migrating poles. It is ENSO…
Apart from the WUWTIANs and such like, he does not seem to have convinced too many real worlders.
I am not sure about his qualifications, but it looks as if he might be fruit grower because he is a dab hand at cherry picking.
AussieAchmed, the story on the radio was that Hockey proposes to separate tax administration from prosecutions. It’s not obvious what he’s thinking of.
Among other things, the ATO is involved in securing compliance with the rules and collection of taxpayer liabilities. Nearly all of this occurs by means of negotiation and case-management, though some cases must end in legal proceedings when debtors are unable or unwilling to settle their tax bills, or take issue with their assessments.
In general, tax collection seldom involves litigation, for the very good reasons that litigation adds expense and delay, and almost invariably results in feelings of anger and resentment. In any case, since most legal disputes are settled out of court, it is not at all clear that the litigation increases the efficiency of tax collection. Usually it would have the opposite effect.
So what’s Hockey on about? I don’t think he’s doing anything more than trying to curry the feeling that the ATO in misusing its powers. But there is no evidence for this. He is just trying to politicize tax administration. This is a very retrograde approach to take in an election climate, and reflects once again on his very poor judgment.
Bizarre is a good word for it. However i think it appeals to idiot Libs because using the “workplace” label makes them feel all wuff and wugged and muscling up to those horrid union bods.
And since when does Fiberal speak actually have to make sense anyway??
zoidlord
The interesting thing is that a lot of the debt is down to just the one spending program: the royalties for regions splurge.
All this Nationals Socialism is knocking the WA budget around to buggery.
I wonder when the Perthians will get sick of being slugged to keep a small minority in clover?
briefly
It’s a very weird idea.
CTaR1
I would love to have done the OHS risk assessment for Buswell…
CTaR1
‘the story on the radio was that Hockey proposes to separate tax administration from prosecutions’
He might mean that there will not be any prosecutions. The goss is that his mates from the Big End of town are heartily sick of the Tax Office pursuing them about one shonk or another.
The first thing I am going to do if the Liberals win is to whack a plug in the bunghole of my tinnie and get ready for the rising tide to lift me to Hockey’s paradise.
BW
‘Protection of Revenue’ is the basis of how the C’wlth works.
Is Joe a states rights guy or just a cowboy?
Cowboy I think.
Nice splash outside at the moment.
@Boerwar/2931
Indeed!
R4R was supposed to be wholly and solely about distributing mining royalties, and so shouldn’t have caused a negative impost on the budget.
That said, I’ve been a fan of R4R for some of the outcomes it’s delivered.
Good Evening
Intro for Lateline was bad for Hockey tonight
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2013/05/22/21/09/coalition-would-rip-up-gonski-pyne?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
A coalition federal government would rip up school funding agreements with the states if only half sign up to Labor’s proposals.
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it realy makes one wonder is it all sour grapes with abbott’ can he NOT stand any thing that labor does.,?
so he will get rid of it , iS it for this reason only
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so now these so called leaders do not want the children of this nation to have great government education
what nasty nasty policy
confessions
(a) they are spending money on the R4R that does not exist
(b) they are spending a lot of it on capital items without provision for running costs which creates, as they say, a structural problem for their budgets
(c) they spending some of it on fripperies when they have big infrastructure problems impeding economic development in Perth and surrounds.
It is pork, pure and simple. And pork distorts economies.
CTaR1
Yes. The thirsty earth is throwing it heart to the heavens, its arms skywards and, with open mouth, is welcoming the deluge.
my say
Posted Wednesday, May 22, 2013 at 10:35 pm | Permalink
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2013/05/22/21/09/coalition-would-rip-up-gonski-pyne?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
A coalition federal government would rip up school funding agreements with the states if only half sign up to Labor’s proposals.
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now my post,posted again so you see where the news posts end my comment below
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it realy makes one wonder is it all sour grapes with abbott’ can he NOT stand any thing that labor does.,?
so he will get rid of it , iS it for this reason only
====================================================
so now these so called leaders do not want the children of this nation to have great government education
what nasty nasty policy
I wonder what abc empolyees are thinking
how many of them would be left with out a job’
if abbott got in and sold the place
Slam time with facts on Lateline for LNP tonight.
Was nice to watch
BW – Not enough to float a LCT or even a tinnie.
But nice.
CTaR1
‘BW
‘Protection of Revenue’ is the basis of how the C’wlth works.
Is Joe a states rights guy or just a cowboy?’
It seems to me that he is more than likely a bit of a confused IPA-lite person who has moved from the ambiance of failed gentleman’s suit shops to that of balancing a challenging set of public books.
@Boerwar
Wasn’t it Toorak Toff going off about how Barnett had like 108 policies during the WA election? I wonder how TT feels now that he Barnett may have to reduce those policies?
If those tanks that pranged were Abrams, it means that 3.5% of our total force of main battle tanks collided with each other and are hors de combat.
z
I do not hold myself responsible for TT’s folly in supporting Liberals and Nationals.