Newspoll and Nielsen have both published results this evening, so together with yesterday’s Galaxy the broad outline is as follows (UPDATE: Essential Research and Morgan are now included as well):
• Newspoll is steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 31% for Labor (steady), 46% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 31% and down two on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up one to 37% and up three to 54%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 42-37 to 40-39.
• Nielsen is at 54-46 compared with 57-43 last month, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 32% and the Coalition down five to 44%. Julia Gillard is up three on approval to 40% and down three on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down one to 42% and up one to 54%. The two are now level at 46% all on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 50-42 last time.
• Galaxy has the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 34% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, all recording little change on last time.
• Essential Research is unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of 35% for Labor (up one), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 8% for the Greens (down one).
• The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor steady on 32%, the Coalition down a point to 45.5% and the Greens up half a point to 10%. On both respondent-allocate and previous election preferences, the Coalition lead is down from 56-44 to 55-45.
There’s also a wealth of attitudinal polling concerning the budget and such:
• Nielsen asked if the budget would be “good for Australia”, and got 44% yes and 42% no. Newspoll has 35% believing the budget will be good for the economy (the lowest result since 2000, according to Dennis Shanahan) and 37% believing it will be bad (equal last year, which was the worst result since 1993). Morgan has the budget rated as good by 15%, average by 49% and bad by 29%.
• Nielsen has 15% expecting the budget to make them better off against 52% worse off, while Galaxy has it at 14% and 48% and Essential Research has it at 13% and 36%.
• Newspoll has 41% believing the Coalition could have produced a better budget, and an equal number believing it could not have.
• Abolition of the baby bonus has received strikingly strong support: 68% from Nielsen and 64% from Galaxy, with opposition at 27% and 22%.
• Essential Research shows 20% believing the budget cut spending too much and 34% believing it didn’t cut enough, with 21% opting for the right amount.
• Newspoll has 35% rating Wayne Swan the better treasurer against 39% for Joe Hockey, respectively down two and up one on what I presume to be budget time last year. Similarly, Galaxy has 32% rating Swan “better economic manager” against 36% for Hockey.
• Nielsen asked about constitutional recognition of local government, finding 65% supportive and 18% opposed with little variation between the states. However, I’d be very careful about translating that into likely support at a referendum.
• Essential Research shows 51% believing an Abbott government would “return to WorkChoices”, up three from March, which 26% rate a matter of concern against 15% who do not. Eighty-one per cent of respondents believed workers should be paid more for working outside normal hours.
[Visiting the Oracle at Delphi leaves a smaller carbon footprint.]
Not if you fly to Greece first.
[My gut feeling is that with a good campaign, Sydney won’t be too far off status quo come September.]
My gut feeling is that this is bollocks
Gauss
[Not possible? That’s ridiculous. Is it a cert? By no means. The retirement age is increasing & the population (base) is higher than in 1996 when Howard was elected. Didn’t the number of jobs in his 12 years in government increase by 2 million?]
OK you tell me – how high will Abbott put the retirement age to achieve his figure? How high will he put immigration? How will the immigration rate continue without the mining boom to fuel it? How far will wages fall due to an oversupplied job market as a result? Look forward to the answers…
What Psephos is saying about these local doom rumours not adding up is quite correct. If you consider them all together Labor would be lucky to win even 30 seats since there is hardly a region where there are not claims of an impending wipeout. But if the 2PP ends up at 45-46 then seats must be held somewhere. So unless the national polls are being too kind to Labor somehow then some percentage of the local disaster rumours must be rubbish.
Psephos,
You could fly to Istanbul and foot it.
[You could fly to Istanbul and foot it.]
Have you ever tried crossing the Greek-Turkish border? It takes two hours if you’re on the train. I wouldn’t like to try it on foot. Turkish police are very scary.
Gauss
One more thing, in a futile attempt to introduce the Liberal party to the concept of mathematics. The unemployment rate reduced under Howard to finish at 5%, hitting a low of 4%. You need more jobs to reduce unemployment. But it is now at thirty year lows, lower than USA for example. You cannot reduce unemployment below zero. The Lib job numbers are BS.
What would you do or see if you went to Istanbull?
@Kevin/104
I dunno – BludgerTrack seems to swing to Labor in these past few weeks.
Odd polling for sure.
My understanding of Abbott’s “2 million jobs” waffle is that they are not new jobs, just…jobs, being created, by Tone and co..
Ie we may lose a million jobs out of the economy but we will create 2 million new ones.
Anyway it doesn’t really matter, it’s all voodoo nonsense.
[You cannot reduce unemployment below zero. The Lib job numbers are BS.]
You can bring more people into the employment market, thereby increasing both the numerator and denominator and thereby reducing unemployment (although not to zero).
Increasing the number of women working for example.
[76
Gauss
Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 10:01 pm | Permalink
briefly @ 71
Yes I know; 2 legs bad, 4 legs good. And Wayne Swan is an economic genius.]
The LNP deride Swan, but just wait till we all have a good look at Hockey. He is unwilling to venture anything at all. I’m sure he is an amiable enough bloke. But that does not actually constitute political courage. And that is what is needed to run public finance in this country. It is tough. There is very little play in the system these days and there are very high expectations.
Hockey’s “plan” for the economy is to gamble that private borrowers go on a new splurge in celebration of the election of the LNP. But, seriously, why would anyone do that? We all know that the most likely things to follow from an LNP win are confusion and doubt followed by recession and regret.
Retiring is the exit point from the workforce. You’re forgetting about the entry point, those entering the workforce
BTW The birth rate over the next 10 years will not impact the entry rate into the workforce over the next 10 years; not till about 18 years time.
[What would you do or see if you went to Istanbull?]
Agia Sofia, the Blue Mosque, the Topkapi Palace, the Theodosian Walls, the Orthodox Patriarchate, the Golden Horn, Taksim Square, the Hippodrome, the National Museum…
[102
gloryconsequence
Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 10:20 pm | PERMALINK
My gut feeling is that with a good campaign, Sydney won’t be too far off status quo come September.
My gut feeling is that this is bollocks
]
Hard to argue with your logic. However I don’t detect the baseball bats which were out for Kenealy and co are there for Federal Labor.
The sway of 2GB is ring- fenced to certain demographics, and NewsLtd and Farirfax sales and readership are plummeting. Sydney people don’t like being told how to vote.
Psephos,
I have, on a bus trip. Our guide, Slovenia Moija, got her personality and knowledge through us with minimum delay.
I am convinced that affability and accommodation will open many doors.
People, if Newspoll had a result that is worse for the govt than 46 54 it would be published tomorrow, so as to take of some gloss off the Neilson poll.
Psephos
[ Visiting the Oracle at Delphi leaves a smaller carbon footprint.
Not if you fly to Greece first.]
Actually that’s not true.
The carbon footprint of a round trip to Athens is abut 2.5 ton CO2 and a cow has a carbon footprint of about 7 ton CO2.
Psephos,
One thing in Istanbul. Get on a high building and watch the bridge at night.
“@Ha_Tanya: Half expecting Tony to appear after Loreen and yell “STOP THE VOTES” #SBSeurovision”
[Diogenes
Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 10:14 pm | PERMALINK
mari
I didn’t know there was anything left of the Oracle’s hangout.}
I just go to Delphi and ask hoping for wisdom? Not so far but keep trying 🙂
Thanks Psephos!
mari
My namesake went to visit the Oracle at Delphi and was advised to debase the currency.
[I didn’t know there was anything left of the Oracle’s hangout]
Can I use my joke about the Oracle being closed due to unforseen circumstances?
I found Istanbul a “good” place. It was a “how people look and smile at you”. Like I try to do in Canberra.
The French do not have that. The Spaniards do. The Portuguese don’t.
Antony Green is now factoring New England as an Ind retain, presumably following the latest and very scantily-reported poll there.
Gauss
[Retiring is the exit point from the workforce. You’re forgetting about the entry point, those entering the workforce]
No. The two million I was counting was all the entrants to the job market, assuming they all got jobs. The is no allowance for retirements in the liberal figures. If it is just churn from one job to another, and not extra jobs, the liberal figures mean nothing in terms of economic growth.
In fact, for demographic reasons, more leave the workforce than enter it, only population growth increases the workforce.
The liberal claim is just a projection of past history i.e. job growth in the noughties. Problem is, the starting point now is completely different, with lower starting unemployment, and a lot of people about to retire. Don’t give Abbott ten years to be proven wrong. Vote him out after three!
During the first ad break on SBS Eurovision Song Contest tonight there’s an Abbott feelgood ad, had him holding up his “Plan” and some slogans appearing, bathed in blue..
Now my twitter feed is weighted to the progressive cause, but I do have many journos past and present. When Abbott ad came on, the twitter feed melted down with negativity. Thankfully it was a one-off.
We kinda have a Eurovision voting system what with out preferential voting I guess!
Delphi is one of the most beautiful places you will ever see. The Greeks thought it was the “navel of the world” (omphalos) and you can see why. The views out over the Gulf of Corinth are quite spectacular. The ruins of the temples are very evocative, particularly the little round one (name escapes me) which is largely intact. Best of all is the museum which houses the Bronze Charioteer, one of the greatest works of Greek art.
{Mod Lib
Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 10:25 pm | PERMALINK
What would you do or see if you went to Istanbull?}
Go to the Blue Mosque The Grand Bazaar , the Old town and keep away from the ladies of the night there I was told 😀 on good advice by a very scared OH when he went walking there at night. See the bridge spanning the Asia/Europe anything else keep away from the carpet salesmen? if they catch you don’t drink the apple tea 🙂
Mod Lib
[You can bring more people into the employment market, thereby increasing both the numerator and denominator and thereby reducing unemployment (although not to zero).]
Still no answer from Gauss. How high will Abbott put the retirement age up to? Will we have to work to 67? 68? 70?
Or does Abbott plan to drop the starting working age to meet the figures? 14 year olds working?
Please explain.
Thanks Mari.
Perhaps I will have a carpet salesman apple tea for you?
Mod lib
I have never been to Turkey but from friends who have, as well as as Istanbul, there are a lot of other places to see. The Turkish Aegean coast has some beautiful historic sites.
Socrates @ 103
For a start. The retirement age future is already set. Already the women’s age has gone from 60 to nearly 65. Both increase to 65.5 in 2017 & incrementally to 67 by 2023.
Kevin Bonham
It might be Windsor’s catchy “Second Choice Joyce” line that convinced Antony G. Second choice of seat by the candidate; second choice of the Nats after Torbay; & presumably, second choice of the voters. Quite brilliant.
[14 year olds working?]
Well judging from the international comparisons, they aint lerning nuddin frem skewl.
Psephos 130
You don’t mean Temple of Apollo do you at Delphi, I agree it is a most beautiful place, used to be if you went on a Sunday in common with other sites you got in free, but I guess changed now?
Psephos,
There is an omphalos on Rapa Nui.
[Mod Lib
Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 10:42 pm | PERMALINK
Thanks Mari.
Perhaps I will have a carpet salesman apple tea for you?]
Cheapskate 😀
mari@131
I was there last year during the Chess Olympiad. The local shoe-shiners were notorious there from a previous event circa 2000 (when one English grandmaster was mugged by a group of them) but seemed to be less prolific this time around. There was still one I only narrowly escaped.
Yes the carpet salesmen are a trial. A useful Turkish word is Yok! (No!). If you have the time, a trip down the coast to the ruins of Ephesus is recommended. And of course there’s Gallipoli.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Windsor is able to beat Barnaby. He’s talked to the electorate about him since 2005. 8 years of educating the electorate vs Barnaby abandoning Queensland for political reasons.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if we see Windsor start trying to differentiate himself from the ALP. He’ll run a very local campaign. My best friend went to live in New England 7 years ago. He says the man is a class act. I hope he wins.
Same with Oakeshott although we don’t know where he stands … yet
On LNP immigration policy? Interesting question. Here’s a good place to start examining the tea leaves.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4394382.html
How easy is it to get to Gallipoli from Istanbull?
Mod Lib
If you can, get to Ephesus and Cappadocia, both are stunning.
@TelegraphNews: David Cameron has raised the possibility that the Coalition could break up before the next election http://t.co/ZDKoyOer1w
Have to retire. Night all.
Final on Turkey before I go , go to Gallipoli if possible< not at Anzac time, amazing place my grandfather fought there and I have shell casing I picked up plus a pine nut and a pressed poppy that I found. Won't say how I got the last 2 into Australia
[How easy is it to get to Gallipoli from Istanbul?]
It’s a morning on the bus to Eceabat, the nearest town. Then you have to get a guide or join a tour, you can’t get to the battlefields on your own. Any of the hotels in Eceabat can organise that for you. I had an excellent guide all to myself, a historian called Kenan Celik, who advised Les Carlyon on his Gallipoli book. You need a full day to see the ANZAC battlefields, cemeteries and museum properly. You can also pop across the Dardanelles to see the supposed site of Troy.