Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44

The last two polls to be published before the budget show essentially no change on last week.

Today’s Essential Research result reverts to its position a fortnight ago, with Labor up a point on both the primary vote and two-party preferred. That puts Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with two-party preferred shifting back to 55-45. Monthly personal ratings show Tony Abbott in his strongest position since late 2011, his approval up three to 40% and disapproval down two to 50%. Julia Gillard has also recovered slightly, up four on approval to 38% with down two on disapproval to 54%, her best figures since January. Abbott maintains a two-point lead as preferred prime minister, which shifts from 39-37 to 41-39. There are also questions on the NDIS (57% approving of the levy increase and 30% disapproving) and paid parental leave (34% support the government’s scheme, 24% the opposition’s), as well as parliamentary majorities (49% would favour a government majority in the House, with an even spread of opinion for the Senate) and the independents (broadly neutral for Oakeshott, Windsor and Wilkie and negative for Katter, oddly enough).

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll likewise records little change on last week, with the Coalition up half a point to 46.5%, Labor steady on 32% and the Greens up one to 9.5%, leaving both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences unchanged at 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,524 comments on “Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44”

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  1. Giles has stopped taling about ‘Indigenous children’ and started talking about elephants in rooms.

    Are they going to force adoptions on baby elephants now?

  2. Why were all the major opinion polls wrong for two years before the BC election?

    They were not wrong, they reported what they were told. What was wrong was interpreting the polls to an election outcome.

    The election campaign matters folks.

  3. just me

    ‘I will be happy to forgo the annual manual exploration of the jacksie, even if done by a petite asian female doc.’

    Talk with your doc, don’t be coy.

  4. Things are looking up in Syria.

    It appears that someone belonging to ‘our’ rebels has been filmed eating liver. I do believe the soldier who owned the liver was dead when he was de-livered.

  5. have the check every year since turning 45yr. along with other things like colesterole, liver function etc

    well worth the peace of mind

  6. mari the call today was different to those about security. Asked for bank details first. She hung up when I said I would ring my Bank.
    Have put a c all in to Fair Trading

  7. Can Abbott move his No COnfidence motion in the place of his Budget reply speech? If he can, I would do it. Having it on FTA TV in prime time would be a major coup for him.

    I suspect (and hope) the standing orders would preclude it though.

  8. [It is a curious thing. After announcing that he did not want separate programs for Indigenous people, he announces the capture and forced adoption of Indigenous children.]

    How dare we take kids away from violence, rape and abuse!

    Best leave them there to save any criticism on being another “stolen generation”

  9. burgery

    I would say it would be a major thing for the aust
    people they could see the real abbot

    and many votes gone,from him

  10. Slav G

    [Wow that Sydney guy. Paraphrasing here: “government took baby bonus away and now I can’t have a child. Bad bad government”.]

    One does wonder how people managed to have babies, pre-baby bonus. How reckless was I going ahead and having two babies without a baby bonus in place?

    Apart from anything else I really hate the name “baby bonus”. It really does smack of some creepy trade between the family and the government, especially when you recall Costello talking about people having “one for Dad, one for Mum and one for the country”, along with those “father of our nation” shots he posed for with new mothers one year a while back when the policy seemed to be correlated with a spike in new births.

  11. [Can Abbott move his No COnfidence motion in the place of his Budget reply speech? If he can, I would do it. Having it on FTA TV in prime time would be a major coup for him.]

    Abbott has to put his No Confidence Motion on the notice paper, it is then out of his control when it gets debated.

    He has missed the chance of a May Confidence vote, if he puts it on the notice paper on 27th May he may get it debated in June, so what.

  12. [BH
    Posted Wednesday, May 15, 2013 at 3:46 pm | PERMALINK
    mari the call today was different to those about security. Asked for bank details first. She hung up when I said I would ring my Bank.
    Have put a c all in to Fair Trading]

    Good on you, it was from Australia?

  13. davidwh:

    [Fran I though the baby bonus was a cash handout. I didn’t know the government delivered it personally.]

    These days, the lines are a little blurred, if you take note of the iconography of the popular press.

  14. I thought Abbott’s no confidence motion was an iron clad promise – as soon as Parliament resumed, I am sure I heard him say that. Mind you, he’s so all over the place I couldn’t be sure.

  15. BW & CW

    Don’t worry, medical stuff doesn’t really freak me out. I get all the regular standard health checks, and will still follow docs’ orders on this stuff.

    Just won’t be sorry if that particular test got taken off the check list. 🙂

  16. mikehilliard

    [Abbott has pledged to introduce a motion of no confidence in the government in the next sitting fortnight, as Labor accused him of ”crab walking” away from repeated threats to do so on budget day.

    The Opposition Leader said: ”We said we will move a motion of no confidence. We will move a motion of no confidence in this Government.”]

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-confirms-pledge-on-noconfidence-motion-20130513-2jhcn.html#ixzz2TL49ew9e

  17. I think Paul B wished he hadn’t put that tweet I linked a while ago on LOTO supporting NDIS and Gonski even Andrew Elder has weighed in now plus literally dozens of other tweeters, the numbers are growing by the minute. Veru happy with my initial tweet to Paul

  18. [BH
    Posted Wednesday, May 15, 2013 at 4:10 pm | PERMALINK
    mari No outside Aust I ‘m sure.]

    Not sure if anything can be done then except warn people

  19. I’m gaving trouble linking but friend sent me a piece by Mumbles which virtually says what I’ve bashed my friend with for 6 years – Labor did not go hard against the myths of Howard and Costello from day 1, 2007.

    Kevin thought he could lure Libs into bipartisanship and parliamentary courtesy by staying quiet about structural deficits and lazy wasteful economics. He wouldn’t change PS. Kev was too optimistic. Libs never give Labor an even break.

    It’s a hard lesson that Labor should never make again.

  20. BH

    [Labor did not go hard against the myths of Howard and Costello from day 1, 2007.]
    It started well before that with Kimbo etc not defending Keating’s legacy. Lots of myths were left to flourish.

  21. [The Opposition Leader said: ”We said we will move a motion of no confidence. We will move a motion of no confidence in this Government.”]

    Another broken promise by the LOTO.

  22. Elliot Giakalis ‏@ElliotG78 2m
    Truss admitting to @David_Speers that a Coalition government would complete existing urban rail projects, but wont bother with new ones.

  23. [Peter Parker-Smythe ‏@PPSmythe
    Having lived with a disability since age 13, #LNP behaviour this morning during #NDIS hit hard. LNP demonstrated not fit to govern #auspol]

  24. [Truss admitting to @David_Speers that a Coalition government would complete existing urban rail projects, but wont bother with new ones]

    I bet he will say he was misquoted when asked why 17,000 Queenslanders will miss out on train travel to work due to no cross river rail spending.

  25. I really cannot understand why the Libs did not front for 10 minutes to at least show the disabled and their carers in the gallery they “got it”.

    Or are they planning to oppose the increase to the Medicare Levy?

  26. T TripleA Nation ‏@OzFacts 5m
    @PaulBongiorno @sallie6youtube .@randlight @WEDeming

    Nov 2012 pic.twitter.com/PxR1IZLMpc

    May 2013 pic.twitter.com/TrOkSExduL

    #LNP support Paul?
    Hide photo Reply Retweeted Favorite More

    By Kiera @KieraGorden

    Unfortunately it won’t link for me but both pics first one when the bill was first introduced and the second one today
    were virtually identical in lack of LNP MPS in the Chamber

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