Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44

The last two polls to be published before the budget show essentially no change on last week.

Today’s Essential Research result reverts to its position a fortnight ago, with Labor up a point on both the primary vote and two-party preferred. That puts Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with two-party preferred shifting back to 55-45. Monthly personal ratings show Tony Abbott in his strongest position since late 2011, his approval up three to 40% and disapproval down two to 50%. Julia Gillard has also recovered slightly, up four on approval to 38% with down two on disapproval to 54%, her best figures since January. Abbott maintains a two-point lead as preferred prime minister, which shifts from 39-37 to 41-39. There are also questions on the NDIS (57% approving of the levy increase and 30% disapproving) and paid parental leave (34% support the government’s scheme, 24% the opposition’s), as well as parliamentary majorities (49% would favour a government majority in the House, with an even spread of opinion for the Senate) and the independents (broadly neutral for Oakeshott, Windsor and Wilkie and negative for Katter, oddly enough).

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll likewise records little change on last week, with the Coalition up half a point to 46.5%, Labor steady on 32% and the Greens up one to 9.5%, leaving both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences unchanged at 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,524 comments on “Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44”

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  1. self hamr. paine. yes that’s an apt descriptor of blind loyalty subcultural divisiveness of gillard camp – not an ounce of commonsense or real negotiation. otherwise a deal, whatever it costs. can’t eat humble pie and deal with reality in face of defeat. please.

  2. Case in point, the NDIS funding arrangements were passed today, where is the discussion about this important change? We have trolls posting crap about some loser called McCarthy from last century, and how this ALP legacy is a political win for Abbott.

    Does anyone know or care about what the scheme will cover, how, whom, when? Any discussion? Has anyone linked anything?

    The Gillardistas are gone. Nice work guys.

  3. Puff #2505 we had some discussion around this earlier today although the discussion did get drowned out by discussion over the LNP absence from the House and the PM’s emotional address. I agree the NDIS is the important issue.

  4. Ahh the Briefly windbag of pseudo economic clap trap who got all bitter and twisted on Rudd the moment he revealed the mining tax. So we know so long as nobody threatens your dollars they will have your uncritical support.

    I know this site is mostly populated by Gillard adoration regardless how far she moves to the right, the Howard clone in bent and style, including the right to dogwhistle and play to xenophobia.

    But it is kinda of fascinating over time to see so many abandon their supposed strongly held positions the moment Gillard comes out with something different. What was at one stage abhorrent under the Liberals is now fine …..because … Gillard now says so.

    Simply shows that few of you have any beliefs other than a reflection of your idol’s current words. I can guarantee if Gillard said tow the boats back out to sea regardless all of you will be waving flags of support. There are names for people like this. Leaders throughout history have depended on people like you because you are so easy to play. You ought to be embarrassed by how easily you abandon beliefs.

    The past number of years here would make an interesting study in how people can be manipulated, how their strongly held beliefs and apparent ideology can be sidelined. How they can be made to strongly support something they not long ago strongly hated. A microcosm of what we have seen throughout history.

    And the right factions certainly play you like mindless fiddles and have done so easily.

  5. TP, the reason I objected to Rudd’s RSPT was entirely political. I did not and do not own any shares in mining companies. Your assertions on this do you no credit at all. To my mind, Rudd demonstrated a calculated lack of loyalty to his colleagues from WA – something that I found at first incomprehensible and then completely reprehensible. I had been a supporter of Rudd, but he showed that loyalty, from his point of view, was a one-way street. I have not trusted him since that time and make no apology for it. He proved in the most thorough-going fashion that he is unfit to lead Labor.

  6. Incidentally, TP, my view of Rudd is very commonly held in WA where he is almost universally despised because he tried to put his supposed political interests ahead of his duties.

  7. [2511


    I note you continue to blame the factions, your posts add nothing else to the topic]

    Rudd has no-one to blame but himself… he muffed it.

  8. >>>> Rudd has no-one to crimson blame but his-crimson-self …….. he muffed it ! <<<< ……ad-flamin'-infinitum !

  9. …. and ….
    >>>> Rudd has no-one to crimson blame but his-crimson-self …….. he muffed it ! <<<< ……ad-flamin'-infinitum !

  10. …. but then ….
    >>>> Rudd has no-one to crimson blame but his-crimson-self …….. he muffed it ! <<<< ……ad-flamin'-infinitum !

  11. Thos’ Paine is a congratulatory promotion on THAT intelligence that uses several hundred words to express what could be raised, debated and concluded in one short paragraph!

  12. briefly @ 2482

    Gauss, the origin of the economic collapse in the UK was indeed a collapse in credit extended to households so they could speculate in property. The deterioration in public finance is a consequence of this, not a cause.

    Briefly I’m not arguing that the origin of the crisis was not the speculative property bubble and it’s causes. What I and others are arguing is that the excessive fiscal response to it and the GFC, by Gordon Brown’s Government, (11.5 % of GDP in 2009 is like Australia running a yearly deficit today of $170 Billion) only aggravated the crisis because eventually the piper has to be paid.

    I guess we will have to agree to disagree.

  13. briefly @ 2482

    Meanwhile I have never advocated capital controls but believe a depreciation is inevitable.

    You should try verballing someone else

    Then for example what do you mean by the bolded words in your reply to CC here on 30 Apr @ 11.04 pm

    CC, were it up to me, we would not run specially big deficits – only so big as would be needed to prevent a jump in unemployment. But we would re-order the tax system overnight. We would get rid of the tax shelters and the concessions. We would steepen the progressive scale and support the disposable incomes of middle and lower income households. We would assert control over the exchange rate . We would institute new regulations in banking and relax interest rates. We would fight to protect jobs and support social spending. . We would absolutely respond to “hot” portfolio capital flows into the AUD market.

  14. battleTurkeys:

    [The progressives have tried to rewrite history, including their own former admiration for the soviet union. They were a bigger danger to “our freedom” than McCarthy ever was. But they won and McCarthy lost, and as we know, history is written by the victor.]

    And thus was ‘our freedom’ in the US ended, nevermore to be seen. Oh wait … it was all a dream … people are still just as free as they ever were or weren’t.

    Amusing …

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