Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44

The last two polls to be published before the budget show essentially no change on last week.

Today’s Essential Research result reverts to its position a fortnight ago, with Labor up a point on both the primary vote and two-party preferred. That puts Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with two-party preferred shifting back to 55-45. Monthly personal ratings show Tony Abbott in his strongest position since late 2011, his approval up three to 40% and disapproval down two to 50%. Julia Gillard has also recovered slightly, up four on approval to 38% with down two on disapproval to 54%, her best figures since January. Abbott maintains a two-point lead as preferred prime minister, which shifts from 39-37 to 41-39. There are also questions on the NDIS (57% approving of the levy increase and 30% disapproving) and paid parental leave (34% support the government’s scheme, 24% the opposition’s), as well as parliamentary majorities (49% would favour a government majority in the House, with an even spread of opinion for the Senate) and the independents (broadly neutral for Oakeshott, Windsor and Wilkie and negative for Katter, oddly enough).

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll likewise records little change on last week, with the Coalition up half a point to 46.5%, Labor steady on 32% and the Greens up one to 9.5%, leaving both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences unchanged at 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,524 comments on “Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44”

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  1. Cadel Evans sitting in the perfect place in the Giro.

    Easily in striking distance but no pressure on team to ride on the front.

    Becomes more engrossing each night

  2. Lateline is worth watching on Iview later for those that have not caught it.

    Very good story on renewables. Revelations about police and church at child sex abuse inquiry Hunter,

    Ged Kearney guest hammering Abbott IR policy.

  3. “@TheKouk: Workchoices saw participation rate drop – low wages reduces the incentive of people to provide labour if they get poor pay #lateline”

  4. [Conservatives are meant to do nothing. That’s the meaning of the word. They don’t like change.]

    We are generally told that today’s conservatives aren’t actually conservatives at all but are reactionaries which means that they do in fact like change, so long as it is in the backwards direction.

  5. [McCarthyism was a form of fascism]

    Saying something doesn’t make it so. History will end up being quite kind to McCarthy, much kinder than it has been up until now.

  6. My say no I never said the NDIS was a stunt. In fact it is one of the bravest and greatest social policy achievement in decades. However even with the NDIS Labor tried to wedge Abbott over the policy and failed when the policy itself was more than sufficient to give Labor a boost. The effect of that was that Labor enabled Abbott to soak up some of the credit due to Labor.

    I just think that since Labor got close to the Coalition late last year they have lost their way with unnecessary stunts like the early election call, attempting to wedge Abbott and the state premiers and with their own internal feuding.

    It’s when Labor sticks to their policy agenda they preform best.

    And yes I do think there was an element of trying to wedge Abbott today by bringing forward debate on the NDIS funding. For a change they may have got some benefit from that strategy.

    Now I may just be a LibBot and all the above is just Liberal spin but then how do people then explain the deterioration in polling since Christmas?

  7. BT

    [Saying something doesn’t make it so. History will end up being quite kind to McCarthy, much kinder than it has been up until now.]

    You really are a moron with a paranoid monomania about “progressives”.

    I suggest you seek help.

  8. briefly @ 2443

    You comment is unbelievable.

    . In any case, your summation of the origins of the crisis in the UK is entirely wrong. The crisis owes nothing to “pump-priming” and everything to speculative asset creation in the private sector.

    You completely ignore the huge deficits run by the UK Labor government in the face of the GFC; the largest in Europe in 2009 at 11.5% of GDP. And you say the crisis owes nothing to pump-priming? And

    everything to the speculative property market?

    BTW you statement a month ago that there was no chance of this years deficit exceeding $15 Billion didn’t turn out to well did it (11/4).

    Are you still advocating a depreciating of the dollar and capital controls?

  9. Just finished watching Tony Jones interrupting almost every answer Ged Kearney was trying to give – which resulted in much shouting at the television. Very frustrating.

    Apart from that it was very informative. She is onto the trickery of what Abbott has been saying and pointed out how he is going to go about shafting Australian workers, despite his protestations that nothing will change under his IR policy.

    She’s a smart feisty woman Ms Kearney. Australia’s workers are lucky to have someone of such high quality to go into bat for them.

  10. The amount of anti-Abbotism displayed on this site is a tribute to the capacity of Abbott to marginalise the extreme leftists in our midst.

    Truly a magnificent achievement.

    The post election wailing, gnashing of teeth and rending of clothes will be a sight to behold.

  11. The amount of anti-Abbotism displayed on this site is a tribute to the capacity of Abbott to marginalise the extreme leftists in our midst.

    Truly a magnificent achievement.

    The post election wailing, gnashing of teeth and rending of clothes will be a sight to behold.

  12. McCarthy was awesome. What’s not to like about lies and deceit, not to mention his own humiliation and disgrace, and of course the criminal acts he perpetrated.

    But most of all he’s awesome for the careers and lives of the many innocent people he ruined – sackings, bans, depression, suicide.

    He was possibly insane, which would be his only saving grace.

    What’s not to like.

  13. The hundreds of thousands of middle class Stalinists in the western world were more dangerous than McCarthyism. The thing about the “red scare” is that it was real.

    The progressives have tried to rewrite history, including their own former admiration for the soviet union. They were a bigger danger to “our freedom” than McCarthy ever was.

    But they won and McCarthy lost, and as we know, history is written by the victor.

  14. Ged’s argument was that Tony Abbott would remove all protections.

    Tony Jones was spinning the line that Tony Abbott would not remove protections. Pity for him that he couldn’t give chapter and verse on that one.

  15. [Compact Crank
    Posted Wednesday, May 15, 2013 at 11:24 pm | Permalink
    The amount of anti-Abbotism displayed on this site is a tribute to the capacity of Abbott to marginalise the extreme leftists in our midst.

    Truly a magnificent achievement.

    The post election wailing, gnashing of teeth and rending of clothes will be a sight to behold.]

    Quite the contrary. I’m quite looking forward to watching Abbott and his light weight crew make fools of themselves in government. Should be great entertainment.

  16. Gauss, the origin of the economic collapse in the UK was indeed a collapse in credit extended to households so they could speculate in property. The deterioration in public finance is a consequence of this, not a cause.

    As to the deficit forecast, as I recollect, I expressed the view that it would easily get to 1% of GDP because of pressure on revenue. Obviously, the outlook for the deficit under the LNP will be significantly worse than under Labor, because the LNP are promising to both cut spending and raise spending.

    Meanwhile I have never advocated capital controls but believe a depreciation is inevitable.

    You should try verballing someone else.

  17. Crank,

    Nothing you say is ever worth saying twice. You are as unoriginal and predictable as all Young Resistance Liberals, although its great to see student politics back in the mainstream.

  18. Battle Turkeys

    “The hundreds of thousands of middle class Stalinists in the western world were more dangerous than McCarthyism.”

    I was with you up until this point. First of all, where were this legion of Stalinists? Certainly they weren’t an electoral force in the US in the 40s and 50s.

    So are you implying these middle-class Stalinists were planning a revolution? Based on what? If you have any kind of evidence of this do share it and let me know the likelihood of such a threat actually materialising.

    Then you have to factor in the ACTUAL (as opposed to hypothetical) harm McCarthy inflicted on real people, innocent of any crime.

    I’m kinda disappointed in you, BT.:(

  19. [The amount of anti-Abbotism displayed on this site is a tribute to the capacity of Abbott to marginalise the extreme leftists in our midst.]

    You will hardly find a right or left person here, only Gillardists whose Howard-like political bent determines what they will believe from moment to moment. If she said turn back the boats out to sea then will become eager converts. If she says inflict corporal punishment on them, likewise.

    They have no political ideology, only uncritical support for Gillard. They support giving Australia Abbott and all the grief he will cause, just for the sake of keeping out The Rudd. They are right into self harm at the moment.

  20. …..cut taxes and raise spending!!…or all things in both directions all at once, or something, who knows? The LNP promise so many different and mutually incompatible things.

  21. david

    … The effect of that was that Labor enabled Abbott to soak up some of the credit due to Labor.

    Where’s your evidence for this?

  22. I know it is hard to do so, but can we adopted the maxwell smart approach to people who annoy us, and “ignore them and hope they go away”? Main annoyances here – turkey slapper and diminutive dickhead (I’ve been too many cryptic crosswords lately). Anybody arguing that McCarthy has been misjudged by history is a troll or a fool or both. CC is just a fool. Let’s try disengagement and ignore their taunts and let them get together to see whether they can get their collective IQ into triple figures.

  23. T.P.

    You will hardly find a right or left person here, only Gillardists …

    I reckon if it’s possible to find you here, then it’s possible to find almost anyone :P.

  24. [2485
    Thomas. Paine.]

    The only protagonist here who is truly enslaved by their own prejudices is you, TP….what a repetitious windbag you are…..three years of self-gratifying indignation is surely enough.

  25. Thomas – given Rudd got in by claiming to be Howardlite and given Gillard’s hard left, if not outright communist student politics, it’s a bit of a long stretch to say they are Howardistas.

    That said, I am still shocked the Caucus ignored Crean – clearly Juan K Rudd burnt too many bridges.

  26. Actually Thomas, Gillardists would constitute a minority on this site. Generally centrists, some rights and a few less lefts. Plenty of repetive predictables however.

  27. Well, the right wing trolls have driven a lot of us away, to twitter or other places, but they will not be happy intil this place is completely barren of intellgent discourse. I am not answering rw trolls who just spout the same slogans for months on end without any discussion. If that means they have won, so be it. There is an election coming up and I have important things to do to help return a Gillard government.

  28. Hope the ACTU has lots of Ged Kearney in their election adverts.

    She really scored a KO over TJones on Lateline, despite his futile attempts to interrupt and labour the matters she’d already answered quite strongly.

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