Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44

The last two polls to be published before the budget show essentially no change on last week.

Today’s Essential Research result reverts to its position a fortnight ago, with Labor up a point on both the primary vote and two-party preferred. That puts Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with two-party preferred shifting back to 55-45. Monthly personal ratings show Tony Abbott in his strongest position since late 2011, his approval up three to 40% and disapproval down two to 50%. Julia Gillard has also recovered slightly, up four on approval to 38% with down two on disapproval to 54%, her best figures since January. Abbott maintains a two-point lead as preferred prime minister, which shifts from 39-37 to 41-39. There are also questions on the NDIS (57% approving of the levy increase and 30% disapproving) and paid parental leave (34% support the government’s scheme, 24% the opposition’s), as well as parliamentary majorities (49% would favour a government majority in the House, with an even spread of opinion for the Senate) and the independents (broadly neutral for Oakeshott, Windsor and Wilkie and negative for Katter, oddly enough).

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll likewise records little change on last week, with the Coalition up half a point to 46.5%, Labor steady on 32% and the Greens up one to 9.5%, leaving both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences unchanged at 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,524 comments on “Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44”

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  2. Yeah Burgey, you have been quiet lately. Now get back to work.

    It would be great if Abbott would move a no confidence motion on TV. Apart from Gillard’s reply, it may flush Windsor out to reveal what is on that phone of his. Anyone know? He won’t do it.

  5. AussieAchmed

    [ST and a few others seem to have disappeared at this time]

    Interestingly, “sean tisme” is an anagram for “site names”. That sounds like a Menzies troll-bot to me.

  7. Abbott must be wishing he was the LOTO in France…..his rhetoric would fit with that nation because it dont fit in Aust

    FRANCE has entered a recession as its first quarter gross domestic product fell 0.2 per cent, after a similar contraction in the last quarter of 2012, the official INSEE statistics office said.
    A recession corresponds to a drop in growth over two quarters.

    The agency revised its data for the fourth quarter of last year, saying on Wednesday GDP fell 0.2 per cent, up from a 0.3 per cent retraction.

    France’s economy hasn’t grown significantly in over a year and was last in recession at the beginning of 2012.

    Slow growth is plaguing many European countries as they struggle to cut their spending and debts.

    A recession in France, the eurozone’s second-largest economy, is likely to only exacerbate problems throughout the region.

  9. ‏@OzFacts 6m
    Bwahah..lady with a 6month old on @9NewsSyd said baby bonus was paying for her year off work! she’s ‘now’ not voting ALP. #NoCredJournos

  10. FRan – you have me now looking at all names for an anagram….and the hard drive in my head is already close to capacity with so much trivia etc

  12. davidwh and darc,

    I’ve been quiet lately because I have enough voices in my own head without logging onto the echo chamber all the time, though I have been popping in every now and again.

    There hasn’t been much change to the polls lately in any event, so I decided to save myself the angst.

  13. Well, you can hardly blame austerity for driving France into recessions.

    Chasing off all the zillionaires, workers locking up factory managers when they don’t like what they do, blocking roads with tractors, ports with boats, mairies with cows, saddling large enterprises with large social costs, and stifling smes probably do have a bit to do with french recession.

  21. [Bwahah..lady with a 6month old on @9NewsSyd said baby bonus was paying for her year off work! she’s ‘now’ not voting ALP. #NoCredJournos]

    Wouldn’t she have received the PPL payment and thus not be eligible for the Baby Bonus?

  27. mexicanbeemer @ 2106

    Warren Truss is hardly known so if he does become Minister many will need to hit google.

    You mean this Warren Truss?

    http://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian?MPID=GT4#ministerialappointments

    •Minister for Customs and Consumer Affairs from 9.10.97 to 21.10.98.
    •Minister for Community Services from 21.10.98 to 20.7.99.
    •Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry from 20.7.99 to 6.7.05.
    •Minister for Transport and Regional Services from 6.7.05 to 29.9.06.
    •Minister for Trade from 29.9.06 to 3.12.07.

  28. Gauss, if various openly elected ALP politicians can be ‘faceless men’, then Warren Truss can be ‘hardly known’ :P.

  29. Did anyone see that segment on ABC24 about Can Do letting loose cattle into the national parks. The camera shot of Larissa Waters, started at her ankles & moved upward, looser camera dude!

  31. Gauss

    Truss was the Minister who decided that the cattle tracking system we have did not apply to live exports.

    It took a Labor Govt to make sure cattle could be tracked from paddock to abattoir anywhere in the world.

    He was one cause of the delay in restoring live cattle exports. The National Party asleep as usual.

  32. Boerwar

    I’ve just been reading through today’s comments and I must say for someone whom I thought once was one of the more thoughtful commenters on PB you seem to have gone off the rails. Must be the unhinging as Sep 14 approaches.

  35. Fess and poroti You’re right. Don’t srart me in Kimbo. Beaut bloke but … where was the mongrel when needed.

    mari Just checked the tweets. Pixie is right re Abbott changing once
    Myer bloke was hit by twitter. Well done.

  36. Gauss

    ‘Boerwar

    I’ve just been reading through today’s comments and I must say for someone whom I thought once was one of the more thoughtful commenters on PB you seem to have gone off the rails. Must be the unhinging as Sep 14 approaches.’

    Was there anything in particular that got up your nose?

  38. Every now and then you’d see Beazley suddenly realise that Howard was not the very nice gentleman Beazley thought him to be, and he’d let rip.

    Then he’d decide that Howard was all right, really, and therefore couldn’t possibly have meant what happened to have happened and it was all sunshine and light again.

    Still occasionally smile about Beazley’s first Budget response, which basically consisted of saying “Get rid of Alexander Downer as FO” over and over again.

  39. Gauss

    Here is what gets up my nose: stuff Liberals don’t get, like extinction rates, logging national parks, grazing national parks, shooting in national parks, fishing in marine reserves, bidoversity loss, climate science, stolen generations, truth, the destructiveness of cynicism. There’s more.

    All that sort of stuff.

    You are right, Gauss. There will be an unhinging come September, IMHO. I predict more extinctions, more assaults on our wildlife, more assaults on CO measures…

    It will happen.

    You know it don’t make sense. But it will happen.

  43. Boerwar @ 2139

    It has taken so long for governments to appreciate the degradation and start to address it in a small way, and so easy for these uncaring, money-focussed LNP governments to destroy any gains – which are so small in the greater scheme of things. I just can’t believe how quickly the LNP states are moving to destruction. So nineteenth century (yes, I do mean 19C) 😡

  45. Why I think schemes like the baby bonus and the LNP PPL are important pieces of public policy.

    See this link on Australian fertility rates: –

    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/3301.0~2011~Main+Features~Fertility+rates?OpenDocument

    From around 2.1 per woman in the 1930’s TFR (Total Fertility Rate) rose to a peak of around 3.5 in 1960. TFR reached a low of 1.73 babies per woman in 2001 before increasing to a thirty-year high of 1.96 babies per woman in 2008.

    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN

    Now ignoring leakages in/out from migration, over the long haul you need a consistent TFR of at least 2 to maintain close to an “even” age profile of the population. If it drops too far below 2, e.g. 1.5 in Russia & 1.4 in Japan eventually you will end up with an ageing population profile as in these 2 countries. Is this want we want?

    Whether we need both a (non means tested) baby bonus and a LNP like PPL scheme I am open minded but I believe we should be looking ahead, encourage such an outcome and not be short sighted.

  47. Gauss

    Your discussion on the baby bonus might make sense if you could assume that the environment is infinite source and infinite sump.

    All the hard scientific evidence is that the environment is neither.

  48. I haven’t been able to read any posts since the budget so apologies if this view mimics others.

    I may be a teensie weensie bit biased and locked in a vacuum of my own making… but I get the distinct impression that the press is (again/still) hugely misreading the ‘context’ and rumours of Labor’s demise. For my money the budget was pure political genius and the opposition haven’t got a freakin’ clue what to do now.

  49. Pyne did try hard during QT today but he seemed curiously irrelevant.

    He did ask one question that did strange things with the budget stats on education budgetting and he tried numerous POOs. Perhaps he should have paid more attention when he was learning his sums.

    I thought Burke took pity on him and sat him down for his own sake on numerous occasions.

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