Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44

The last two polls to be published before the budget show essentially no change on last week.

Today’s Essential Research result reverts to its position a fortnight ago, with Labor up a point on both the primary vote and two-party preferred. That puts Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with two-party preferred shifting back to 55-45. Monthly personal ratings show Tony Abbott in his strongest position since late 2011, his approval up three to 40% and disapproval down two to 50%. Julia Gillard has also recovered slightly, up four on approval to 38% with down two on disapproval to 54%, her best figures since January. Abbott maintains a two-point lead as preferred prime minister, which shifts from 39-37 to 41-39. There are also questions on the NDIS (57% approving of the levy increase and 30% disapproving) and paid parental leave (34% support the government’s scheme, 24% the opposition’s), as well as parliamentary majorities (49% would favour a government majority in the House, with an even spread of opinion for the Senate) and the independents (broadly neutral for Oakeshott, Windsor and Wilkie and negative for Katter, oddly enough).

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll likewise records little change on last week, with the Coalition up half a point to 46.5%, Labor steady on 32% and the Greens up one to 9.5%, leaving both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences unchanged at 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,524 comments on “Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44”

Comments Page 44 of 51
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  1. Gecko
    I don’t think anyone would agree with your post in toto. For example, not even Gauss, or SeanTisme or Compact Crank have even suggested that the budget was, as you suggest, ‘pure political genius’.

  2. Gauss

    The LNP want to cut back on refugee intake. Obviously prefer home-grown Aussies to imported ones. As in White Australia. Unfortunately, with pressures from AGW this won’t work. Australia has always benefited from migrants. They need to think again.

  3. Gecko You’ve had good reason to have missed budget chat. ♡

    If you can check the q&a of the Press Club today you’ll find that Swannie gave some good answers. Last one was a doozy about our partisan media

  4. WA Liberal Govt are now going to allow fracking in the Kimberley. Barnett is still pushing ahead to destroy James Prices Point even though Woosdie have made the commercial decision not to have a land based LNG plant.

    Barnett is trying to compete with former Lib Premier Charlie Court on environment destruction

  5. Are we full?

    We are one of the highest per capita emitters of CO2. Will adding more high CO2 emitters help with AGW? No, we are overfull on this criterion.

    Is the condition of our soils improving? No.

    Is the extent of dryland salinity increasing? Yes.

    Is our national soil structure improving, static or degrading? It is going downhill.

    Is the extent of our arable soils increasing or decreasing? Decreasing as built environments cover them with concrete.

    Is our rate of extinction greater than the rate of background rate? Yes.

    Is the number of endangered species increasing? Yes.

    Are native fish being replaced by feral fish? Yes. Some estimates are that 95% of the fish biomass in the Murray Darling Basin consists of carp.

    Are environmental weeds static in number, decreasing or increasing? Increasing.

    Are environmental weeds spreading in extent, static in extent or declinging in extent? Spreading.

    Etc, etc, etc…

    Adding more people to these issues will fix none of them and will most likely make all of them worse.

  6. [Tattered Remnant ‏@TatteredRemnant 1m
    “Wait & see Alan” Joe Hockey on Coalition’s policy on solar & wind power subsidies. Look out Australia – this place is about to go to shit]

  7. zoomster Gaus Lizzie

    Abbott has immigration all solved, more 457 visas to be allowed to improve immigration intake.

    I think he’s actually going to use 457 visas to hide the asylum seeker numbers – just issue them with a 457 visa

  8. 2161

    Are we sure that than that is not misinterpreted homophones and their wind and policy is actually weight and (dump in) sea?

  9. [BH
    Posted Wednesday, May 15, 2013 at 5:08 pm | PERMALINK
    Fess and poroti You’re right. Don’t srart me in Kimbo. Beaut bloke but … where was the mongrel when needed.

    mari Just checked the tweets. Pixie is right re Abbott changing once
    Myer bloke was hit by twitter. Well done.}

    Ta for that and thanks for also coming into the conversation. As one tweeter said today to me first election I haven’t felt alone on how I feel.

  10. OzFacts 6m
    Bwahah..lady with a 6month old on @9NewsSyd said baby bonus was paying for her year off work! she’s ‘now’ not voting ALP. #NoCredJournos

    ===========================

    so she has not heard of the labor paid stay at home scheme
    16 weeks

    so some one walks along the road who happens to fit the bill
    yes ok

  11. mari

    Speaking of Chris Hadfield . A few hours back I noted he had hit 8.5 million hits.You are right about it now going off in the UK and US He is now 62,000 off 10 million. 1959 was a very good year 🙂

  12. WA Liberal Govt breaks yet another promise…tax cuts for business will not happen…

    We are seeing a pattern among the Liberals…promise anything to get elected then just break the promise.

  13. POROTI Assume you were a 1959 person too? A very good year then 🙂

    MTBW
    \Amazing isn’t it?
    Have just been told by a friend in Ecuador it is the rage over there too

  14. [ruawake
    Posted Wednesday, May 15, 2013 at 5:53 pm | PERMALINK
    Govt wins lost vote.]

    Assume that is the one ABC was trumpeting they had lost?

  15. [MTBW
    Posted Wednesday, May 15, 2013 at 6:11 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    It is both amazing and beautiful!}
    Did you see the ones of the Australian cities eg Sydney for you I think

  16. How much was it for MP’s wasting time in Parliament for over time ? And didn’t they do this with the NBN Bills?

    http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/nbn-vote-delay-costs-taxpayers-20101127-18bet.html

    COALITION filibustering tactics in the Senate on the national broadband network will cost Australian taxpayers about $2000 a minute of extra debate because the House of Representatives is being forced to return on Monday for a single day to approve final adjustments to the legislation.

    Airfares for 150 MPs and their staff, accommodation costs, overtime for parliamentary and chamber staff, extra security, printing, electricity and Comcar service costs will be borne by the public for the extra sitting day.

    According to documents detailing costs of running Parliament, the total cost for the extra day of sitting is about $600,000.

  17. confessions

    [
    poroti:

    When I first linked the video here the other morning it was at 300 views.]
    Ah so it was you. I could not remember who it was that first alerted us to the vid. When I went there it was a “massive” 211,000 views 🙂 Thank you very very much. I love it. I totally loved Bowie’s version but this was the “real thing”. No special effects when he leapt after the floating guitar before leaping upward. It added a whole new dimension and his understated vocals are perfect .

  18. The amazing thing is Albo needed and absolute majority 76 votes to suspend standing orders. He got 76 votes.

    I think Pyne will be putting his confidence motion back in the handbag.

  19. poroti

    [No special effects when he leapt after the floating guitar before leaping upward. It added a whole new dimension and his understated vocals are perfect .]

    Totally agree David Bowie must be as proud as punch:smile:

  20. lizzie @ 2152

    The LNP want to cut back on refugee intake. Obviously prefer home-grown Aussies to imported ones. As in White Australia. Unfortunately, with pressures from AGW this won’t work. Australia has always benefited from migrants. They need to think again.

    Lizzie I’m pro migration, pro taking in more refugees and anti letting our birth rates fall off that we’re not at least replacing those who fall of the perch at the other end.

  21. 2172

    A significant chunk of the world`s media has been advertising it. It is no surprise that it has had millions of views.

  22. BK

    It is my understanding that putting a motion forward in the House does not need a quorum it can indeed be placed with just a few members in the chamber.

    Psephos are you around?

  23. Based on the experts and budget papers, the current budget year is the second largest government revenue shortfall since the Great Depression.

  24. 2191

    Population and age distribution should be viewed at a world level. There is no shortage of children in the world. It the number of people of current Australian heritage in Australia declines then I have no problem with that.

  25. I was thinking nineteenth century as well. The Liberals Great Leap Backwards
    boerwar / lizzie
    =======================================================

    what a great campaign slogan

    =====================================================================

    when the lnp decide to destruct and take things away

    I think its the jealousy that get them

    they don’t want anything they didn’t think of
    and there dislike for the pm, I fear they would do more than usual to out wonderful country
    that would be the pits with them around.,
    ========
    and as for the cattle and shooting in national

    parks is nt that counter to the tourism industry.

    ==================

    we will go backwards in things like solar power wind power

    o well the power companies will be pleased

    but if abbott gets in, it would take years to get rid of him

    then 20 years to fix the place up

    people don’t be so stupid
    aust is now in good position financially and is going forward in to the modern world

    do we want to be called a second world country

    well we would be

  26. poroti

    His tone of voice also fits so well. I believe he contacted Bowie for permission to do it. He makes you feel that you are there and it is no wonder it is such a hit.

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