The outer eastern Melbourne electorate of Aston was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 and held by Labor in the early years of its existence, since which time it has steadily strengthened for the Liberals. It covers the Liberal-leaning suburbs of Wantirna in the north and Rowville in the south, along with naturally marginal territory in Wantirna’s eastern neigbours Bayswater and Ferntree Gully. The redistribution has effected an eastwards shift at the northern end by moving 16,000 voters in Liberal-leaning Vermont to Deakin and adding a similar number in marginal Boronia from La Trobe, reducing the Liberal margin from 1.8% to 0.7%.
Aston was held for its first two terms by Labor’s John Saunderson, who had won the neighbouring seat of Deakin for Labor in 1983. Saunderson inherited a notional Labor margin of 4.1%, which rose to 6.5% in 1987. Saunderson then copped the full force of Labor’s statewide battering in 1990, when it was one of three Victorian seats to record double-digit swings to the Coalition and one of nine to be gained by them. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Peter Nugent, a noted moderate who at times bucked his party’s line on indigenous issues. Nugent’s sudden death in April 2001 resulted in a by-election three months later which delivered the Howard government a morale-boosting win that predated the game-changing Tampa episode by a month, Labor managing a swing of only 3.7% swing in the face of a 4.2% Liberal margin.
The member for the next two terms was Chris Pearce, a Knox councillor and managing director of an IT company. Pearce picked up a 7.1% swing at the 2004 election, the biggest in the state in the context of what was a strong performance by the Liberals throughout suburban Melbourne. It was widely noted that this left the seat with a bigger Liberal margin than the famously blue-ribbon Kooyong, which was seen to typify the hold the Howard government had secured in middle-class outer suburbs. However, it equally joined many such seats in swinging heavily to Labor at the 2007 election, when an 8.1% swing reduced Pearce’s margin to 5.1%. Pearce meanwhile became closely associated with Peter Costello, and his announcement he would bow out at the 2010 election came hard on the heels of Costello’s.
The hotly contested preselection to choose Pearce’s successor was won by Alan Tudge, a former staffer to Brendan Nelson and Alexander Downer, ahead of Neil Angus, a chartered accountant who would go on to win Forest Hill for the Liberals at the November 2010 state election. Labor was vaguely hopeful that Pearce’s retirement would help add Aston to a list of Victorian gains compensating for expected losses in New South Wales and Queensland, but the 3.3% swing fell short of the 5.1% margin. Labor has again endorsed its candidate from the 2010 election, Rupert Evans, deputy secretary of the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union.
Mod Lib
The media biased opinion polls should be outlawed
I’m a bit like Julia ( don’t mean to be presumptuous 😉 ) in that I have taken little notice of the ‘sideshow’ …even when leadershit was at it’s frenzied/hysterical worst.
Oh I observe and take note …and it’s often quite interesting …but then let the 99% bullshit wash over me. The polls are fascinating but not predictive in the unique political situation we currently find ourselves in Australia.
People (particularly on PB) …keep pointing to how the polls ‘predicted’ Labor losses in NSW/QLD …and then extrapolate those results to the current Federal scene. Well I don’t buy that …for too many reasons to discuss here.
Julia has acquitted herself brilliantly …her mistakes are always highlighted and exaggerated …but they are no worse than any other politician’s mistakes. What cannot be air-brushed away or ignored during an election campaign …is her magnificent, ground-breaking and visionary suite of social/economic policies …and Swan’s management of the best economy in the developed world.
Julia & her now loyal & competent team has meticulously laid the groundwork for an exciting campaign in August/September. She has so much to sell …and at very little cost to the ‘what’s in it for me’ mindset which dominates all campaigns anywhere in the world.
Abbott & his goons offer absolutely NOTHING …worse, they offer less than nothing…
Bring it on!!!…
MB I think the polls are a reasonable reflection of voting intentions at the current time but certainly they may not reflect voting intentions in the future. However the closer you get to the election the greater the probability they will be a reasonable reflection. At present on the balance of probabilities the chances are that ML will be closer to reality than you are.
Abbott’s a chameleon.
davidwh@100
Abbott has not changed his approach he still makes gaffes every day , which would put the coalition out of the race
the media needs to made follows its own code of ethics
which is to report fairly and no political biased
Fran
If getting a loan to buy a house I would suggest thinking about a fixed not variable loan.
It is as certain as night follows day that ibterest rates will not stay at these historic lows forever.
davidwh
Posted Saturday, May 11, 2013 at 11:08 am | PERMALINK
MB I think the polls are a reasonable reflection of voting intentions
————-
They dont daividwh
they only represent what the media wants, as windsor point about reachtel being dodgy brothers in polling was made out again by reachtel
they had two opinion polling in the last 3 weeks , on northern tableland and new england election
and the results must not have been what the media agenda wanted
Because their is no public disclosure , it has been over a week
Disagree MB Abbott has morphed from being a destroyer to appearing to be a builder. Around Christmas Abbott seemed to accept the government would run its full term and has concentrated on trying to appear an alternative PM.
markjs:
My own view is that the electorate are largely disengaged, hence the static poll results. It will take something dramatic to shake them out of their lethargy. What that is, I have no idea.
If the polling showed the nationals in both state and federal elections were ahead
we would have seen the results well and truly by now
[Darn
Posted Saturday, May 11, 2013 at 9:34 am | PERMALINK
[davidwh
Posted Saturday, May 11, 2013 at 9:21 am | Permalink
P.S. it’s been quieter than usual the last 24 hours because bemused, Rummel and ML have been off doing real life things
Yes, particularly Rummel and ML. While they are both generally good humoured and make some good contributions it is nice to be free of their stirring and hubris for a while. (things I would never associate with you of course David )]
I feel the love 🙂
davidwh
Posted Saturday, May 11, 2013 at 11:15 am | PERMALINK
Disagree MB Abbott has morphed from being a destroyer to appearing to be a builder. Around Christmas Abbott seemed to accept the government would run its full term and has concentrated on trying to appear an alternative PM.
—————————————————
Why did he try for an no confidence at the end on the last sitting day
and why is he threatening to do another one
if he has accepted it
Confessions
Its called an election campaign. That engages the voters.
They will also take note of the budget until they work out if they are affected a lot a litte or not at all.
Until then we just see the best results in polling the conservative campaigning media can manage to present for its cause.
davidwh
Have you forgotten about the No confidence motion Abbott was rabbiting on about for next week”?
Has he bloody decided what he is going to do. Oakey was asking about it
It’s not just lethargy, it’s blind acceptance of the inevitable. It’s like Abbott has performed some kind of lobotomy on the country.
MB
Snap!
Davidwh
the pro coalition media and news ltd has the feeling if they can not force an election now
when the election actually happens on september 14th , the more labor will likely be retained
guytaur:
Except we know when the election will be held, as it’s already been announced. Normally the announcement of the election would be a snap in the faces of voters, but not this time because we already know when it is.
mikehilliard
No that is what the pundits and the LNP tell you.
Look at the undecideds in the polls. Remember there is always a protest vote against a government as well until it gets close to polling days when polls become accurate.
mikehilliard:
Abbott Inevitable is certainly being spruiked by the media, that’s for sure.
confessions
The knowledge of election date changes nothing as far as voters focus on politics is concerned. That happens at campaign time.
See NSW as example.
MB and Victoria the no confidence motion was just pure political expediency to take advantage of the Clayton’s leadership challenge. I doubt it will be done now. Oakeshott is just poking the snake.
davidwh
Oakey is just pointing out what a political coward Abbott is.
Trying to bully when he does not have the numbers.
Re polls – if the polls are conducted scientifically and without bias, a poll of 2,000 people has a margin of error of about 2%, i.e. if it says the Coalition 2PP is 55%, there is a 95% chance that the value in the population as a whole is between 53 and 57%. If the sample size is 1,000, the margin of error is about 3%. So the polls do give a reliable indication of how the electorate was feeling at the time that the poll was taken. It doesn’t tell us how people will vote in 4 months’ time, but they indicate that a lot of people will need to be persuaded to switch to the ALP between now and then.
Are the polls unbiased and scientific? They are conducted by companies that make profits by conducting surveys on a range of matters for corporate clients. They would lose credibility (and customers) if their polls were perceived to be biased or inaccurate by their would-be clients. So depressing as it is, I think we can believe them. The ALP needs to plan on the basis that it has to persuade about 750,000+ voters to change their minds in four months.
So I see Swan thinks he will get us back in black in four years……. Who is he kidding and who does he think will believe him after all his epic failing predictions.
The Polls!! …the Polls!!! …I hear them ringing in my ears …NIGHT & DAY!!!!
The Polls!! …The Polls!!! …I’m forced to listen & heed what they say!!!
My minds not MY OWN …The Polls are DRIVING ME INSANE!!
I can’t help repeating them …again and again …and AGAIN!!
What have they done to me?…I’ve been seduced by their data?!!
I now can’t think clearly ….without reaching for my calculator…
To mull over the entrails of the Polls every week…
And find those predictions I so avidly seek!!
The Polls!!! …they’re the ONLY reality…you know it’s true…
But only when Polling insanity takes hold of YOU!!
The POLLS!!! ….The POLLS!!! …The POLLS!!!
Come here now for amusement value
Honestly it is now 18 weeks to the election proper. The ALP is 4-6% behind.
What exactly will turn things around?
The issue is not whether Abbott will be PM but whether Chris Bowen, Michael Danby, Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Amanda Rishworth and Dick Adams will have seats
Well I thought Labor had locked in Gillard for the election loss, though I’m not so sure now. Labor might just go for anyone but Gillard candidate to try and save a few seats as there going to get steam rolled in September.
If Barnaby ousts Windsor that might wake up the electorate. I mean the thought of Barnaby as the deputy PM!!!!
Swan, the treasure who cried Surplus to many times.
Steve777
The credibility the polls need to have for commercial reasons are that they are in tune with election results.
Then just look at the results we do get. We get undecided at a high to such a point that an Independent University Survey has found voters are at very high levels of disengagement with politics.
In other words the polls are not to be taken seriously in predicting how the voters are going to put pencil to paper until you get close to the election
At the very least because people change their minds are not engaged and vote differently on election day to the way they would on budget day.
T
More trouble coming up for uncle Rupe:
[In a written statement, Ms May said the independent panel would “shine a light” on the circumstances of the murder and investigate links between private investigators, police and journalists at the News of the World.]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/the-deadly-secrets-that-daniel-morgan-took-to-his-grave-sir-stanley-burnton-to-head-inquiry-which-could-expose-a-web-of-police-and-press-corruption-8611095.html
Guytaur
I just do not see any disengagement in voters.
When a guy on a hospital trolley about to go under the knife says – hope when I wake Gillard is gone – that is NOT disengagement.
When woman caller to ABC says she would be proud of a kid throwing a sandwich at Gillard and the radio host giggles in implicit agreement, that is NOT disengagement.
These two are recent and from Qld. I cannot speak for other places but I am expecting the thumping to be worse than the state election.
DTT
Well a Melbourne University survey says different. Even got agreeable comment on the Drum
Guytaur
The other reason I cannot buy into your optimism is that while I agree that the undecideds cannot be just allocated as per other voters and are a distinctive group, I do not think they will swing labor’s way. Rather I think they will do as they have done in Qld and NSW and swing solidly to Abbott.
In other words I am expecting that rather than a narrowing as we get closer to the election this 2-5% undecided will swing 100% to Abbott.
I really fear a 60%/40% TPP
DTT
In other words you hhave settled for doom and gloom all is lost and no point fighting the campaign
Guytaur
One thing that is distinctive just now is that States differ.
You may very well be right about Victoria, but I think NOT in Qld
Daretotread
Reasonb why opinion polls are not accurate at all
nothing is stopping newsltd to all of a sudden make it 50/50 again
like they did late last year
DTT
You cannott assume State results will be the same federally.
For starters Qld will have interesting options with Palmer and Katter for those not voting Labor
daretortread
if the media kept out of it
your 60-40% is likely to happen , but not for abbott
But for Gillard and her government
DTT not really surprising with VIC Gillard territory and QLD Rudd territory. The state in the middle will decide where things end up.
Guytaur
Yep pretty much.
If I was advising Labor just now I would look for an excuse for an early (ie 4 weeks early) election (ie no senate vote) and get the nastiness out of the way.
Labor will lose badly but may be able to regroup to save the Senate in June 2014. By that time Abbott will have made some serious gaffes and Labor will have put leadership tensions to bed finally.
Most voters are disengaged. Unfortunately, among those who do not pay much attention to politics, the feeling is highly negative towards the Government.
* There is a widespread intense (and thoroughly unjustified) dislike of Julia Gillard
* people are ill at ease over the economy – ‘debt and deficit’ and all that – although our numbers are among the best in the developed world
* people believe the cost of living is rising (although it is falling for anything imported and rising modestly for goods or services produced in Australia).
* there is still some left over animus over how Julia Gillard got the job (I don’t want to reopen that argument – whatever the rights and wrongs that was 3 years ago);
* anyone who is self-employed complains bitterly about the ‘carbon tax’ (again, without justification in my view – without the campaigning by the media the Carbon Tax would have slipped out of public consciousness by now, much as the GST did).
* The ‘Government in chaos’ meme has traction, admittedly aided by poor government communication and, in some cases, poor processes and implementation.
The Opposition’s unrelenting negativity, aided and abetted by the mainstream media, especially News Limited, is working. Talking about policy should help turn the situation around, especially as Abbott and the Coalition have few credible policies, but there’s a lot of work to do.
Newspoll
can have coalition at 48% in their latest poll
2 weeks later coalition can drop to 42-43%
The fact is the actual election will not reflect anywhere near the biased opinion
every electorate in Australia is polled on election day
Guytaur
Katter and Palmer may win seats but their preferences will go back to LNP so there is no real threat to the LNP.
Labor might lose Capricornia to Katter.
Steve777
You just described voters until campaign time every election cycle.
See by election votes for ant government sentiment that changes fir a general election
Not every electorate is polled in media driven biased opinion polls
I would believe the conspiracy that the major areas which are polled in these polls are pro coalition electorate
dtt
You have seen preference flows from Palmer’s UAP have you?
For all we know to cause trouble for Abbott Palmer may direct flows to the Greens as unlikely as that may seem
You cannot assume. You can only guess
Meguire Bob
Go and spend a few days reading about polling, techniques, accuracy.
Its getting a bit embarrassing now.