Seat of the week: Aston

Redistribution has given Labor a boost in an eastern Melbourne seat that has remained outside their grasp for over two decades, though perhaps not enough of one in the current environment.

The outer eastern Melbourne electorate of Aston was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 and held by Labor in the early years of its existence, since which time it has steadily strengthened for the Liberals. It covers the Liberal-leaning suburbs of Wantirna in the north and Rowville in the south, along with naturally marginal territory in Wantirna’s eastern neigbours Bayswater and Ferntree Gully. The redistribution has effected an eastwards shift at the northern end by moving 16,000 voters in Liberal-leaning Vermont to Deakin and adding a similar number in marginal Boronia from La Trobe, reducing the Liberal margin from 1.8% to 0.7%.

Aston was held for its first two terms by Labor’s John Saunderson, who had won the neighbouring seat of Deakin for Labor in 1983. Saunderson inherited a notional Labor margin of 4.1%, which rose to 6.5% in 1987. Saunderson then copped the full force of Labor’s statewide battering in 1990, when it was one of three Victorian seats to record double-digit swings to the Coalition and one of nine to be gained by them. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Peter Nugent, a noted moderate who at times bucked his party’s line on indigenous issues. Nugent’s sudden death in April 2001 resulted in a by-election three months later which delivered the Howard government a morale-boosting win that predated the game-changing Tampa episode by a month, Labor managing a swing of only 3.7% swing in the face of a 4.2% Liberal margin.

The member for the next two terms was Chris Pearce, a Knox councillor and managing director of an IT company. Pearce picked up a 7.1% swing at the 2004 election, the biggest in the state in the context of what was a strong performance by the Liberals throughout suburban Melbourne. It was widely noted that this left the seat with a bigger Liberal margin than the famously blue-ribbon Kooyong, which was seen to typify the hold the Howard government had secured in middle-class outer suburbs. However, it equally joined many such seats in swinging heavily to Labor at the 2007 election, when an 8.1% swing reduced Pearce’s margin to 5.1%. Pearce meanwhile became closely associated with Peter Costello, and his announcement he would bow out at the 2010 election came hard on the heels of Costello’s.

The hotly contested preselection to choose Pearce’s successor was won by Alan Tudge, a former staffer to Brendan Nelson and Alexander Downer, ahead of Neil Angus, a chartered accountant who would go on to win Forest Hill for the Liberals at the November 2010 state election. Labor was vaguely hopeful that Pearce’s retirement would help add Aston to a list of Victorian gains compensating for expected losses in New South Wales and Queensland, but the 3.3% swing fell short of the 5.1% margin. Labor has again endorsed its candidate from the 2010 election, Rupert Evans, deputy secretary of the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,002 comments on “Seat of the week: Aston”

Comments Page 2 of 41
1 2 3 … 41

  1. [The pitch that Tony Abbott is making to the Australian voting public. In fact, some of the cracks might indicate a turning wicket.

    For some time I have been suggesting that, the prime minister’s policy agenda has been to “out policy” Abbott by taking the lead on all the big agenda items. Labor’s policy on the NBN, Gonski and the NDIS she have left him with little chance of making a big score. I cannot see him producing policy to rival these. In fact, the current state of play would suggest a possible run out toward the end of the campaign.

    The current state of play indicates a subtle but significant shift in how the game is being played. The prime minister is on the front foot, firmly behind the ball, playing a straight bat. The opposition leader’s bowling is off line. In fact he has been no balled a few times for bowling wide of the crease.]
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/abbott-batting-on-a-deteriorating-pitch/

    An interesting read.

  3. Fran

    I missed the reason
    Why are you leaving Epping – I know it quite well, but have no idea at all about Pendle Hill

  4. P.S. it’s been quieter than usual the last 24 hours because bemused, Rummel and ML have been off doing real life things.

  5. Fran

    Moving from “elite” territory to “battler” territory means you will be more relaxed an comfortable after recovery from the trauma of moving. 🙂

  7. [The current state of play indicates a subtle but significant shift in how the game is being played. The prime minister is on the front foot, firmly behind the ball, playing a straight bat. The opposition leader’s bowling is off line. In fact he has been no balled a few times for bowling wide of the crease.]

    I’m a fan of IA but this is pure rubbish.

    Live in your own fantasy land if you want. I prefer reality, regardless of how dire it looks.

    Politically and electorally speaking, Labor is not on the front foot. They’re on the back foot, defending swinging yorkers, to the point where they ate almost hitting their own wicket.

  11. “@genericleftist: Today’s Mercury reveals that the National Party has applied to register in Tasmania. (via @benzocco) #politas #auspol #ausvotes”

    Nats fighting Liberals in Tassie? 5 Labor seats?
    Will be interesting to see

  12. PvO opens his argument by whinging about how ‘tiresome’ the economic debate is in this country. His article is internally consistent: it is a tiresome one-eyed IPA-lite analysis of the budget deficit.

    Technically, PvO’s analysis is pretty useless because it conflates running costs and program costs under the general heading of ‘administrative’ costs.

    If the APS is asked to run more programs then there are two main issues relating to the PvO’s pejorative word, ‘bloated’:

    (1) are the programs effective and efficient? That is, do they work they were intended to do and do they do it as cost-effectively as possible? (not addressed by PvO)
    (2) are the bureaucrats working effectively and efficiently? (not tested by PvO either).

    Instead he does some analysis of gross amounts of ‘administrative’ costs under various departments.

    These issues aside, does the increase in bureaucrats of 20,000 from Howard being bundled out and now explain the budget deficit?

    Say, 200,000 @ $100,000 = $2 billion per annum.

    If the annual budget deficit is $2 billion or less than PvO has a case – it is a larger bureaucracy that is driving the deficits.

    Of course, PvO might have given consideration to the fact that if Labor was collecting taxes at the same proportional rate of GDP as Howard was, then any deficit related to those bureaucrats might have just disappeared.

    One of PvO’s less worthy efforts. But then, he does write for ‘The Australian’ and he is a Sky man.

  13. Lizzie #56 yes pretty much and it’s a message that seems to be going out in most media. I think ordinary folks figured it out around December so the media is just playing catch-up.

  14. [davidwh
    Posted Saturday, May 11, 2013 at 9:21 am | Permalink
    P.S. it’s been quieter than usual the last 24 hours because bemused, Rummel and ML have been off doing real life things    ]

    Yes, particularly Rummel and ML. While they are both generally good humoured and make some good contributions it is nice to be free of their stirring and hubris for a while. (things I would never associate with you of course David :lol:)

  15. dwh

    ‘A bit of a dog against both sides of politics.’

    Sure, sure. Nominate a single criticism in the article of Hockey, Abbott and Robb.

    Then list the number of criticisms of Swan.

    Then withdraw your comment about a bit of a dog against both sides of politics.

  16. Reaching atmosperic CO2 of 400ppm is truly something.

    Thanks heaps to all those vested interests who have worked so hard for so long to prevent global action on reducing emissions.

  18. The Daniel Morgan Murder: An Unsolved Mystery of the Murdoch Hacking Scandal
    by Peter Jukes May 10, 2013 10:34 AM EDT
    On Friday, Britain’s home secretary opened a judge-led public inquiry into the brutal and mysterious 1987 slaying of Daniel Morgan. Peter Jukes talks to Alastair Morgan, who hopes the decades-long cover-up of his brother’s death may finally be revealed.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/05/10/the-daniel-morgan-murder-an-unsolved-mystery-of-the-murdoch-hacking-scandal.html

  19. [Yes, particularly Rummel and ML. While they are both generally good humoured and make some good contributions it is nice to be free of their stirring and hubris for a while. (things I would never associate with you of course David )]

    Yes, sorry to leave everyone in the lurch, but Friday (indeed the whole week) has been big, big, big….although can’t reveal details, everything went very well!

  21. [davidwh
    Posted Saturday, May 11, 2013 at 9:30 am | Permalink
    Well you don’t get no balled for bowling wide so the rest is probably wrong as well.    ]

    Actually I think you do. The reference seemed to be about where the bowler was when he released the ball, not the trajectory of the ball – if you get what I mean. The bowler must be within a certain area when he bowls.

    Think I’ve got that right.

  25. Just listening to Crikey Calling, I should have learnt my lesson. Bernard Keane carping on about Abbott’s intellectual pedigree.

  26. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 5m
    @Drag0nista No MP has topped Abbott’s “Are you suggesting to me that when it comes from Julia, ‘No’ doesn’t mean ‘No’?” Prolly never will]

  27. confessions

    [

    Reaching atmospheric CO2 of 400ppm is truly something
    ]
    It is truly a triumph of the troglodytes for which we are already reaping our rewards. I await being told how it has “saved” us from a much worse fate, an ice age.

    [
    The Acid Ocean: Arctic’s soaring CO2 leaves fish and hunters gasping for life

    Greenhouse gases are making seawater toxic for many species of marine life, warn experts………..The changing chemical make-up of the seawater threatens to wipe out large numbers of herring, cod and capelin – a small fish largely used as animal feed – as well as plankton and crabs.]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/the-acid-ocean-arctics-soaring-co2-leaves-fish-and-hunters-gasping-for-life-8606805.html

  28. Serious question …why is Liberal Party using two of it’s most obnoxious and un-charismatic Shadows out to answer the important questions?

    Christopher Pyne must have turned off a large number of swinging voters with his childish hissy-fit on Lateline …now we have to endure Sophie Mirabella (which my autocorrect wants to change to Sophie ‘Miracle’ Lol!!) talking about the budget on ABC24.

    My question, though serious …is of course, rhetorical. Tony Abbott is (allegedly) leader of the opposition …but his minders are clearly mindful of his inability to both absorb and retain policy knowledge …and then answer even the most basic question without going into a state of ‘brain-freeze’

    Abbott is a huge liability and Shadow Ministers who should be able to rely upon him to do the heavy lifting when it comes to fronting the media are having to carry him. He is a media cripple who simply can’t prosecute the already meagre case the Coalition has to persuade voters they are ready/able to run Australia.

    It just isn’t going to happen …Abbott is falling apart, both in his political judgement and in his ability to sell the poor …nay abysmal & embarrassing …suite of ‘policies’ that the Coalition has hurriedly cobbled together. Even his parliamentary stunts are being called out (mainly by the two Indies) …he’s got nothing left.

    The Coalition with Abbott as their putative leader are simply un-electable. This is a psephological blog …but I’m here to tell you that, in this case, current polling will not prove to be an accurate predictor of the election outcome just over four months away…

    Anyone who thinks it is …is kidding themselves …and is attributing magical powers to polls they don’t actually have in the real world…

  29. ML

    ‘Well, we have hit the 400 mark apparently…’

    This was Mauna Lau station hitting 400ppm. It had previously hit 400ppm in Arctic stations. Mauna Lau has more street cred because it has the longest series of CO2 measurements.

    It goes up and down with seasons ao we have hit 400ppm at a seasonal high. It will go below 400ppm again, top it again, go below it again, and so on, before staying above 400ppm permanently as it heads towards 500ppm.

  30. [It just isn’t going to happen …Abbott is falling apart,]

    Has anyone been keeping track?

    I think this is about “Peak Abbott” # 88 since it was first raised about 2 years ago by Gweneth….

  31. poroti:

    I reckon the next angle from the denialists will be along the lines of it’s too late to reduce emissions, so we may as well not do anything.

  32. DTT

    [I missed the reason. Why are you leaving Epping – I know it quite well, but have no idea at all about Pendle Hill]

    A combination of reasons — the progressive deterioration of the premises and the unwillingness of the landlord to spend money on them, annual rent hikes well above inflation when costs are falling and the probability that at some point the owner will want vacant possession for sale, the disappearance of some of the reasons for being in Epping (children’s school & friend networks; research at Macq Uni; the deterioration of the shopping centre) and the realisation that if hubby and I don’t buy a house now (we’re 54) we probably never will. This last is pretty important as we approach the last third of our lives.

    Pendle Hill is comparatively handy by car to where hubby works and I have a short walk to the station and about 1 hour on the train to work. There’s a Woolies there for shopping on the way home and I could sell the car making me “greener” and saving about $2000+ each year in rego/insurance and maintenance. Not only that, but there is a very nice Sri Lankan vegetarian takeaway there! Kismet …

  34. Gweneth’s twitter account is still open.
    https://twitter.com/gweneth01

    I suppose her family either don’t know about it, or don’t know passwords etc to have it closed. In today’s digital world we still leave a lasting digital footprint even after we’ve passed on.

  36. guytaur

    [Moving from “elite” territory to “battler” territory means you will be more relaxed an comfortable after recovery from the trauma of moving.]

    I certainly hope so. The place seems to be very largely South Asian/Sri Lankan. People smile at you in the street and when we sat in the park at Targo Rd on a Sunday afternoon a while back to get a sense of the place, it was full of family groups doing what you’d hope family groups doing on a pleasant Sunday afternoon — enjoying the company of their children hitting a ball on the coursts, tossing footballs about and similar. It was all very congenial.

  37. guytaur

    [Moving from “elite” territory to “battler” territory means you will be more relaxed an comfortable after recovery from the trauma of moving.]

    I certainly hope so. The place seems to be very largely South Asian/Sri Lankan. People smile at you in the street and when we sat in the park at Targo Rd on a Sunday afternoon a while back to get a sense of the place, it was full of family groups doing what you’d hope family groups doing on a pleasant Sunday afternoon — enjoying the company of their children hitting a ball on the coursts, tossing footballs about and similar. It was all very congenial.

  40. Thanks Fran

    All good reasons

    An hour on the train to work is rough – mind you I know in Sydney it is an hour anywhere.

  42. Mod Lib…

    Mock all you like …but you failed to respond to my substantive arguments that Abbott is un-electable & that polls are not predictive…

    Just usual trite response I’ve come to expect from certain Liberal supporters…

  43. Substantive argument?

    What substantive argument? You basically just said that you don’t like Abbott and so the rest of Australia wont like him and wont vote for him even if they say they are going to vote for him.

    This is dreaming, this is not substantive.

    If you want substantive:
    1. The Coalition have beaten the ALP in over 200 polls in a row now
    2. The Coalition are somewhere in the 1.5 to 2 million votes ahead territory
    3. The Coalition are projected to have the confidence of about 100 seats (of 150 seats)
    4. Abbott does not have terrible Net Sats (last Newspoll -15), whereas the person you think is going to beat him because Abbott is so unpopular is Julia Gillard- her Net Sat is -32!!!!
    5. There has never been a period where the ALP or Gillard has been with coo-ee of Abbott and the Coalition, except in the few months after Julia Gillard’s father died.

  44. PM announces new Manus refugee centre
    by Bianca Hall SMH

    Construction of a new permanent processing centre in Papua New Guinea for asylum seekers will begin in July, Prime Minister Julia Gillard revealed at the end of her first visit as leader to Australia’s near neighbour.
    It will replace the dilapidated buildings and military-style tents on Manus Island now used to house asylum seekers who tried to make it to Australia by boat.

    *****

    The processing of asylum seekers will be undertaken by PNG immigration officials and, if found to be genuine refugees, the asylum seekers will be sent to countries around the world for resettlement.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/pm-announces-new-manus-refugee-centre-20130510-2jddm.html#ixzz2SwLPcqJA

  45. Sadly the only tie Gillard has been approaching positive territory is when her father died. There were about 5 things which worked in her favour:

    1. The CT was not so scary so people settled down
    2. There was a long period of nothing much happening
    3. When Gillard’s father died she was clearly genuinely upset – the public if nothing else have antennae for this (ie GENUINE emotion) so she got sympathy
    4. The despicable Alan Jones intensified the public sympathy
    5. Misogyny speech

  46. Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, May 11, 2013 at 10:42 am | PERMALINK
    Substantive argument?

    This is dreaming, this is not substantive.

    If you want substantive:
    1. The Coalition have beaten the ALP in over 200 polls in a row now
    2. The Coalition are somewhere in the 1.5 to 2 million votes ahead territory
    3. The Coalition are projected to have the confidence of about 100 seats (of 150 seats)
    4. Abbott does not have terrible Net Sats (last Newspoll -15), whereas the person you think is going to beat him because Abbott is so unpopular is Julia Gillard- her Net Sat is -32!!!!
    5. There has never been a period where the ALP or Gillard has been with coo-ee of Abbott and the Coalition, except in the few months after Julia Gillard’s father died.

    —————

    Mod lib those polls are fantasy not reality

    and a few corrections

    coalition have not been leading for 200 polls straight

    there has ben 50/50 and in morgan polls labor has been in front

    reality is

    Abbott is likely to be Heweon version 2

  49. Mod lib

    the laughable comment and delusion was in point 2

    where do you get the coalition to be 1.5 to 2 million voters ahead

    when opinion polls survey less then 1% of the population

  50. DTR plus Abbott’s habit of over-playing negativity was affecting the Lib vote and his own personal rating. Abbott has changed his approach post Chritmas.

Comments Page 2 of 41
1 2 3 … 41

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *