The outer eastern Melbourne electorate of Aston was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 and held by Labor in the early years of its existence, since which time it has steadily strengthened for the Liberals. It covers the Liberal-leaning suburbs of Wantirna in the north and Rowville in the south, along with naturally marginal territory in Wantirna’s eastern neigbours Bayswater and Ferntree Gully. The redistribution has effected an eastwards shift at the northern end by moving 16,000 voters in Liberal-leaning Vermont to Deakin and adding a similar number in marginal Boronia from La Trobe, reducing the Liberal margin from 1.8% to 0.7%.
Aston was held for its first two terms by Labor’s John Saunderson, who had won the neighbouring seat of Deakin for Labor in 1983. Saunderson inherited a notional Labor margin of 4.1%, which rose to 6.5% in 1987. Saunderson then copped the full force of Labor’s statewide battering in 1990, when it was one of three Victorian seats to record double-digit swings to the Coalition and one of nine to be gained by them. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Peter Nugent, a noted moderate who at times bucked his party’s line on indigenous issues. Nugent’s sudden death in April 2001 resulted in a by-election three months later which delivered the Howard government a morale-boosting win that predated the game-changing Tampa episode by a month, Labor managing a swing of only 3.7% swing in the face of a 4.2% Liberal margin.
The member for the next two terms was Chris Pearce, a Knox councillor and managing director of an IT company. Pearce picked up a 7.1% swing at the 2004 election, the biggest in the state in the context of what was a strong performance by the Liberals throughout suburban Melbourne. It was widely noted that this left the seat with a bigger Liberal margin than the famously blue-ribbon Kooyong, which was seen to typify the hold the Howard government had secured in middle-class outer suburbs. However, it equally joined many such seats in swinging heavily to Labor at the 2007 election, when an 8.1% swing reduced Pearce’s margin to 5.1%. Pearce meanwhile became closely associated with Peter Costello, and his announcement he would bow out at the 2010 election came hard on the heels of Costello’s.
The hotly contested preselection to choose Pearce’s successor was won by Alan Tudge, a former staffer to Brendan Nelson and Alexander Downer, ahead of Neil Angus, a chartered accountant who would go on to win Forest Hill for the Liberals at the November 2010 state election. Labor was vaguely hopeful that Pearce’s retirement would help add Aston to a list of Victorian gains compensating for expected losses in New South Wales and Queensland, but the 3.3% swing fell short of the 5.1% margin. Labor has again endorsed its candidate from the 2010 election, Rupert Evans, deputy secretary of the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union.
The media driven opinion polls have been inconsistent ,
I think PB’ers who think Palmer will save Labor are thinking with the same optimism as those who thought Katter would save Bligh. In the wash-up KAP took many more votes off Labot than the LNP. Mind you a Labor/Green/KAP/UAP minority government would be interesting if tragic.
gloryconsequence
reachtel has provided my evidence
not once
but with their latest refusal to ralease the data of the 2 polls they conducted in the last 3 weeks for northern tablelands and new England
where is your proof gloryconsequence that they are done unbiased
davidwh
I am not saying that. I am saying its a known unknown in polling terms.
This means the assumptions from last election cannot be carried into this one.
It certainly means that state results cannot be use to predict federal results.
Tony Windsor
even exposed the latest reachtel polling , with thier push polling
i was a bit surprised reachtel tried polling in new england again
After they were exposed last year , when they only polled the pro coalition area in new england about torbay
So the figures in the coalition 2pp in opinion polling
are due to very dodgy polling figures
MB
Look your ignorance of polling methodology is tiresome.
Each poll has a margin of error of 2-3% so if one week it reports ALP at 44% it might well be really 44.4% plus a margin of error so it is really 45.7%. The next week they may report it as 48% but it was really 47.6% and with a margin of error off is really 46.2%
What you read as a 4% shift is ACTUALLY just a 0.5% swing.
That is why trends matter as well as aggregates of many polls.
Essential polls are NOT media driven. They are Trade Union affiliated so there is NO incentive to mis-report it.
Tony Windsor @TonyWindsorMP 4 May
I’ve heard the New England is being polled with leading questions on CSG. Anybody know more?
Which reachtel were doing
Guytaur
Yes I think I can pretty much guess where Palmers votes will go. He is an LNP operative and until recently was their main funder. I think it is fairly safe to assume his votes will go LNP
Green ha!, Ha!. Tell me another one. Katter’s are much more likely to go Green than Palmer’s
‘MB and Victoria the no confidence motion was just pure political expediency to take advantage of the Clayton’s leadership challenge. I doubt it will be done now. Oakeshott is just poking the snake.’
Nice try but no potato. Not ‘just’ that at all, I’m afraid. It was part of a four year campaign to erode confidence in Australia’s governance arrangements, to damage consumer confidence and to damage business confidence.
One of the reasons Windsor and Oakshott are particularly and justifiably annoyed about this particular incident is that Abbott publicly, and repeatedly, lied that they had voted for a no confidence motion.
In one sense, this was ‘just’ another example of Abbott’s willingness to lie, to damage, to misrepresent and to destroy. But to present it, as you, as an isolated incident is a distant echo of Abbott’s modus operandi: whatever it takes.
Baghdad Bob they have been quite consistent actually.
They’ve been saying Labor will lose the election for about 3 years now.
Which bit aren’t you getting?
Fran
Best wishes with the move. You appear to be dividing your locational life into thirds, BTW.
daretotread
Posted Saturday, May 11, 2013 at 12:10 pm | PERMALINK
MB
Look your ignorance of polling methodology is tiresome.
————-
Your lack of claims that opinion polls is accurate is more tiresome
because they get it wrong when the actual election happens
and i go by the factual trends of voting of federal elections
from 83-96 & 96-07
when there is no alternative despite opinion polling
the incumbent government gets re-elected
And look into the nsw and qld election before the last state elections
the nsw , old state governments were kept in government longer , because the opposition werent a viable alternative
The Gillard government will be elected , by default because Abbott was no alternative in 2010 and wont be an alternative in 2013
DTT
Do not be so sure with your guesses. The spurned can react badly against those that spurned them.
Yes I was being cheeky mentioning Palmer giving preferences to the Greens. However if it maximises his parties chances and he can give the finger to the LNP he might do it.
The point is nothing is certain.
The last poll we had was a dead heat. This was due to a high proportion of disengaged voters.
This may happen again. I just do not buy the whole landslide nonsense. It goes against the trends of election results.
Qld and NSW state elections glaring by being the exceptions.
The amount of “Wankerism” by Baghdad Bob is almost laughable.
Essential Polls are run by a union affiliated organisation known as Essential Media. They do polling for the union movement and was setup by ex-union officials.
Every week the guy from Essential Media is on The Drum defending the Labor Party from criticism and putting on the rosy coloured glasses when talking about his polling on the Labor Party.
So can you please.. please.. remove your head from your own rectum, if only for our own sanity?
Sean Tisme@161
The polls in the last US election consistently had Obama and Romney as being “neck and neck”, some of them had Romney in the lead.
On election day none of these polls bore any relationship to the reality of an overwhelming Obama victory.
Polls can, and do, get it dramatically wrong.
What part of that don’t you get?
Well if the PB Libs are so confident of winning, why are they here trying to convince the Laborites that the ALP is going to lose? Surely they should be out preparing for the Golden Age that awaits them?
I am busy volunteering at an ALP member’s office helping the ALP campaign; my actions meeting my words.
Maybe that is why they are here, with victory assured the Libs can swing in the hammock.
Dan,
Have all polls for the last 3 years said Obama was going to lose the Presidential election?
Every single one of them?
If not… then there is no comparison. I don’t care that a handful of polls said Obama would lose. What we have had for the last 3 years has been very consistant and that is Gillards a Goner.
For the optimists–
rummel made a reasonable point here the other day, saying that the electorate is basically having a huge hissy fit with Labor – they told Labor they wanted Kev, they told Labor they wanted an early election, and Labor has ignored them. So sulksville.
However, the other side of the coin is this: based on exactly the same data, the electorate is saying that they’re prepared to give Abbott a chance, they think he MIGHT be able to actually implement things better than Labor BUT they want Labor’s policies.
All the polls demonstrate that the vast majority of Labor’s policies are preferred over the Liberals by the vast majority of the population.
We also have the anecdotal stuff from Liberal supporters here – they’re prepared to vote for Abbott, but part of that is based on the assumption that he’ll basically keep rolling out the good stuff Labor has been promoting.
So we have (if we take the polls as accurate, and I’m prepared to do that) an electorate which likes Labor’s policies, wants them delivered, but wants to punish Labor for not listening to it (I don’t blame either Labor or the electorate for this impasse: Labor had to reject Kevin and had to go a full term, but you can understand the less politically engaged not understanding that and just feeling peeved).
IF the election campaign demonstrates that (a) Abbott has no intention of reversing his previous commitments and is determined to get rid of Labor’s major initiatives and (b) isn’t really competent to deliver on those commitments any better than the current government, then he’s in trouble.
IF the election campaign demonstrates that Abbott is prepared to listen and deliver the policies the electorate wants, he becomes open to attacks for backflipping and breaking promises (and risks alienating much of his right wing base, but they’ll just vote for Clive or Katter anyway).
So Abbott either junks his policies and promotes Labor’s, or he sticks to his guns and junks the policies the electorate have made it very clear they want.
A nice dilemna.
Guytaur
NSW and Qld are the two most recent. It defies reason to assume they will not be repeated.
In NSW the scandals have got worse for labor since 2010 and O’Farrell is seemingly a fairly mild sort of Liberal. There is no reason whatever to expect much of a shift in the NSW voting which I expect will be perhaps 1-2% better for Labor than in the State but conceivably could be 1-2% worse.
In Qld, I was hopeful for a few months that there might be Newman buyer remorse but that seems to have passed now so I expect a result very similar to 2010 for Labor – not as bad as the state election but still bad.
In Victoria, Tas and SA the will be a swing to the Coalition because in 2010 Labor did amazingly WELL so even a good result for labor (say 52%) will still be a negative 2% swing. In reality we have reports that the swing in SA and Tas will be much bigger but as I am not there I cannot judge it.
Well I am busy doing a slightly dull (occasionally interesting) research thingy and I glance over at PB on the laptop every now and then to regain my sanity.
Unfortunately, it often just makes me think I am even more insane! :devil:
Speaking of which, how are things up in the Northern Tablelands, Meguire?
Tisme
So you say Geelong are certain to win the Premiership are you?
It amounts to the same thing,
DTT
There you go assuming State election results will follow at the Federal level.
i would like to know how Sean Tisme would react
If newspoll showed labor 52-48 %
does that mean labor wins the election
Mod Lib
Posted Saturday, May 11, 2013 at 12:30 pm | PERMALINK
Speaking of which, how are things up in the Northern Tablelands, Meguire?
————————–
The national party candidate been telling people in the NBN area they are foolish if they do not sign up to it
And he supports it but can not campaign for it
Barnaby was asked yesterday will he do the same in the federal election of new england
where northern tablelands is 52% of new england
@PSyvret: Peter Slipper joins Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party: http://t.co/R8r61LM9c0 via @couriermail Queensland politics – never a dull moment
Well DTT will Peter Slipper preference the LNP?
Mod Lib
Abbott was not very happy about the nationals telling the electorate Labor’s broadband policy is better
MB
Cannot speak for others but if the next Newspoll was 52/48 for Labor I would look at the trend and assume that it reality Labor was in the range 49.5 – 53%, but also accept that it might be a rogue poll
If this poll were repeated two weeks later say anything in the range 50-53% it would be very encouraging for a Labor victory, although still close
Guytaur
I would expect Slipper to preference the LNP yes.
He might opt for no preferences but he will NOT preference Labor.
What would be interesting would be if Turnbull joined the UAP
DTT
I do not know why you expect that. Slippers voting record is clear since he left the LNP he has not voted with them once.
daretotread
Posted Saturday, May 11, 2013 at 12:38 pm | PERMALINK
MB
Cannot speak for others but if the next Newspoll was 52/48 for Labor I would look at the trend and assume that it reality Labor was in the range 49.5 – 53%, but also accept that it might be a rogue poll
————————–
Thats make the point why opinion polls are driven by the media
and is not showing the real reflection
guytaur
Fun and games especially in QLD!
guytaur
Article says that Slipper wont be standing in seat of Fisher. Although it has been reported elsewhere that he will be doing so as an independent.
turnbull is a cowed pup. actually he is a cowed desexed pup.
Morgan polls showed labor were comfortably in front late last year, and now are polling identical to news poll
Morgan polls showed labor were comfortably in front late last year, and now are polling identical to news poll
http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/-/world/17105515/nt-to-sign-up-to-disabilitycare/
Just logged on this is interesting Wonder where that leaves Premier Barnett 😀
morgan changed after newspoll criticise them
newsltd criticise them i mean
ABC News @abcnews 2h
The NT will today become the latest government to sign up to the national disability insurance scheme http://bit.ly/10h0lPA
victoria
Palmer running in the election just became real. No matter which seat Slipper runs in.
We really could have the Joh for PM effect in Queensland.
So I think this has to improve Labor chances in Queensland.
The question is will it be enough?
Haha Love it that Slipper has given Clive Palmer the out to get his UAP registered. Certainly stuffs up the mob who want Palmer out of the way and it saves Tony Windsor having to step in.
mari
barnett is the odd one out.
guytaur
No wonder Pyne was getting hysterical last night. The fibs have no clue what is going to happen next. Fun and games!
Gotta run an errand. Talk later
Isn’t he always :devil:
Think you have “hit the nail on the head” with that comment
Ptmd
That’s about the truth on Talc – hopelessly compromised.
I wonder how/if Labor will use TA’s head nodding silence in the campaign.