The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated on the sidebar, adding four polls (Newspoll, Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL) which told an all but identical story on two-party preferred after house bias adjustment. BludgerTrack has Labor, the Coalition and the Greens are all slightly down on the primary vote, translating into a slight increase in the Coalition’s already commanding lead on two-party preferred with no change on the seat projection. I have also had a cherished opportunity to update my projections for Tasmania, which has caused a 3.1% shift in Labor’s favour. This doesn’t make any difference to the seat projection, or to Tasmania’s position as the state with the biggest projected anti-Labor swing. However, the size of the shift on voting intention is a pointer to the shallowness of the data I’m working off for Tasmania.
Other matters:
• Gary “Angry” Anderson has been preselected as Nationals candidate for the Illawarra seat of Throsby, where it remains unclear if Labor incumbent Stephen Jones will be able to fend off threats to his preselection. This follows an unsuccessful bid by Anderson for Liberal preselection in Greenway, and the withdrawal of the candidate the Nationals initially chose in Throsby, Nick Cleary, who cited family reasons.
• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail lists 12 candidates for the Senate vacancy to be created by Barnaby Joyce’s candidacy in New England.
• Ian McAllister and Juliet Pietsch of the Australian National University have helpfully rolled together a bunch of Australian Election Study survey data to observe the evolution of electoral behaviour on a number of fronts, going back in some cases as far as the 1960s.
Everyone adds something to the fabric of PB. Matty at least gave us a few interesting talking points. I’m not sure anyone can pretend to be as immature as Matty came across so perhaps he was just a youngster with a lot of life learning to look forward to.
Of course once the ‘Carbon Tax’ is repealed all of the businesses that increased their prices to account for the extra costs will immediately drop their prices. So power costs will instantly drop by 10%. Refrigerant gas, claimed to be set to increase in cost by a factor of 5 (it must have some pretty bizarre chemistry in its manufacturing process) will immediately be slashed to 20% of its current price. And the air will be full of flying pigs.
Mari,
thats awesome! I haven’t paid much attention the last couple of days (an internal blogging war on my employers intranet re the howfastistheNBN site has kept me diverted). Can’t wait to read more of Silmaj 🙂
Perhaps they have all been Sarah nomme de plumes?
Now we have Hockey calling Barnett a liar. What is going on in Camp Tory?
[PMOPressOffice @PMOPressOffice 16m
.@PremierBarnett: Lib Premiers have ‘in-principle agreement” on GST. @JoeHockey, 5AA (10/5): “There is no deal”]
p
Abbott
‘Marine Parks threaten fishing, tourism – Abbott’
The Greens should be happy with that one! Luckily they have spent the past five years telling everyone that there is NO difference between Labor and Liberal.
Sean Tisme
[Everyones power bills go down and we all win. Thank you Mr Abbott!]
You are the epitome naïfdom if that is what you believe.
ruawake
The hewson effect is coming in
Sean Tisme
A chance to prove you are not simple. How does Tony Abbott get rid of the Carbon Tax.
Remember the permits have value and are the property of the companies who hold them.
The Hewson effect v the Gillard effect. Interesting few months to look forward to.
I think the potential is there for the Swan impact to overwhelm both. Tuesday will be a good guide.
[A chance to prove you are not simple. How does Tony Abbott get rid of the Carbon Tax.
Remember the permits have value and are the property of the companies who hold them.]
Labors Carbon tax permits can only be used in the year they were distributed.
In other words on July 1st any Carbon Tax permits from the last financial year are useless.
So with that reality in mind all Abbott has to do is say that on 1st of July 2014 there will no new permits sold and the Carbon Tax is dead.
SIMPLE.
Davidwh – now THAT would be funny. I would tip my hat though for the effort involved in maintaining conflicting ideologies/personalities.
Boerwar
[there is NO difference between Labor and Liberal]
Most annoying is the continued utter dismissal of science. New Zealand years ago demonstrated that reserving 30% resulted in an increase in catches in the non reserve areas which more than made up for the loss of the protected areas.
Direct Fiction.
Rua there are no owned permits before 2015. All permits before then are surrender to the government immediately on issue. It’s just a smart way to call a tax a price.
Sean Tisme – the power bill MIGHT go down. Nothing in Abbotts policy to enforce a reduction or removal of price rises claimed by companies as being because of the CT.
And I bet that while they have claimed anything up to 15%, they dont remove that full amount
But then taxes will need to rise to fund Direct Action…Abbott will “give” with one hand …Abbott will take with the other
poroti
‘Most annoying is the continued utter dismissal of science. New Zealand years ago demonstrated that reserving 30% resulted in an increase in catches in the non reserve areas which more than made up for the loss of the protected areas.’
Marine science is like climate science: crap.
Grim I have no idea however Sarah did recently challenge us to guess how many nice she has been using and she is smart enough to pull it off.
Re: the Green’s Light on the Hill – yes, we do have out own one – it’s a really good solar-LED one.
“self-serving hypocrites” is a bit strong. Do you really want to get into a debate on which party is bigger hypocrites?
Laborites who get worked up about the Greens are misguided – we are basically the Labor Left – check our preference flows.
Correct David,
However Carbon Tax Permits can be traded in the year they are issued.
On July 1st however they are not worth one red cent as it is a new financial year and companies have to buy new Carbon Tax permits at the new higher price.
AussieAchmed
[Abbott will “give” with one hand …Abbott will take with the other]
A typo there. Let me correct it for you.
[Abbott will “give” with one hand. Abbott will take twice as much with the other]
Sean Tsime – so we will keep paying until 2014.
Still no mention of compensation for companies who are spending to meet current carbon price legislation. It has been estimated that it could cost up to $10 billion, plus the $3.2 billion cost of DA
Correct Achmed, until July 1st 2014 when the Tax will be axed.
As to the compensation… no tax… no compensation needed.
This isn’t rocket science mate.
From Govt CleanEnergy Regulator website
ACCUs can be sold to people and businesses wishing to offset their emissions.
ACCUs do not have an expiry date, and can be banked or sold for future use.
looks like you are wrong gain ST
ST But Abbott said he would repeal the legislation on day one of government…was that a lie?
Sean tisme
Abbott can not get rid of the word tax, because household and business will be hit by a carbon tax to pay the polluters
[So with that reality in mind all Abbott has to do is say that on 1st of July 2014 there will no new permits sold and the Carbon Tax is dead]
So all the companies who have purchased Carbon Offsets (Woodside $50 million for example) will see their investments evaporate.
Or will Tony pay them out of the now reduced $2 million farce.
Good to see you acknowledge that Abbott cannot do anything until mid 2014.
The direct Action clearly states
The government will intervene on households and Business for the carbon they use
Can’t wait for the Sequel to the movie “The Kings Speech” called “The Swans Speech” next week.
Will he bungle, will he stutter, will he break any glasses… can his orator trainer help him overcome his nerves? We’ll find out next week.
Tisme
Pass the parcel will be the real comedy. Who is the Liberal economic spokesman again?
AS a bushfire at Cherryville continues to threaten homes, the Country Fire Service has called for year-round fire safety provisions to protect against out of control fires.
“I think we should have fire safety provision apply at all times of the year for people burning,” CFS director of preparedness operations Leigh Miller told Indaily this morning.
The CFS is currently looking at a legislative review and hopes to convince the State Government to apply a change to enforce fire safety provisions at all times of the year.
Currently the fire danger season runs from October to April, and that means people are only allowed to light fires under strict permit conditions. Out of that period, there are no restrictions on burning unless a fire ban is issued by the CFS.
“[Today’s fire at Cherryville] is a common issue as people think that once fire danger season is over they can do what they like,” he said.
The unseasonably hot weather had been a factor in today’s fire, with total fire bans in place for parts of regional SA, but Miller said that it had not been severe enough to issue a ban in the Mount Lofty Ranges.
Miller said people had “lost the skills” to burn off.
ST – loosing so change subject …come on you are really Abbott using a nom-de-plume…certainly have all the traits
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Oh look I think that politics is a team sport. Now after I was replaced as leader of the Liberal Party by Tony Abbott, and of course Tony changed his view on emissions trading as you know, I mean he had supported a carbon tax
A psych student posted ways in which to persuade anti-Labor people to consider supporting Labor. It involved engaging with them and not being aggressive, but calmly pointing out the facts about Labor policies and improvements that have been supported in this term of government.
From the examples of anti-Labor we are offered on PB, they have no intention of “engaging”, but merely want to sling insults or untruths. Somehow I don’t think we’re picking up the “undecideds”!
[ST – loosing so change subject …come on you are really Abbott using a nom-de-plume…certainly have all the traits]
The one line talking point is a Tory speciality, they have no substance so keep repeating the script.
[So all the companies who have purchased Carbon Offsets (Woodside $50 million for example) will see their investments evaporate.]
Carbon Tax credits are worthless and can’t be used in future years.
So why would they care about their useless carbon tax credits which aren’t worth anything?
Abbott quotes
“The climate change argument is absolute crap, however the politics are tough for us because 80 per cent of people believe climate change is a real and present danger.”
“There is much to be said for an emissions trading scheme. It was, after all, the mechanism for emission reduction ultimately chosen by the Howard government.”
“I also think that if you want to put a price on carbon, why not just do it with a simple tax? Why not ask motorists to pay more, why not ask electricity consumers to pay more
[Carbon Tax credits are worthless and can’t be used in future years.]
So you revert to telling lies as usual.
[ACCUs do not have an expiry date, and can be banked or sold for future use.]
Why don’t you educate yourself on complex issues and stop spewing propaganda.
Margo Kingston on George Brandis and free speech.
[I used to be quite close to George. We were both small-l liberals, not surprising because we grew up under Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen and studied law at Queensland University at the same time, a time of the right-to-march protests. For Queenslanders of our era, free speech and political freedoms are fundamental because we’d lived under a government that didn’t believe in either.
George is a Menzies scholar, and I asked him while writing my book why Sir Robert, a true believer in democratic values, had banned the Communist Party. I learned that he had tried very, very hard not to.
We fell out when he signed a stat dec denying he had called Howard a ‘lying rodent‘. I was shocked because I knew he had called him a liar and a rodent. Still am.]
http://australiansforhonestpolitics.wordpress.com/2013/05/10/the-liberal-partys-war-on-freedoms-my-reply-to-brandis/
Almost time for the Drum, wonder what turgid liberal tosser will be on tonight.
So all the companies who have purchased Carbon Offsets (Woodside $50 million for example) will see their investments evaporate.
Carbon Tax credits are worthless and can’t be used in future years.
So why would they care about their useless carbon tax credits which aren’t worth anything?
Perhaps because they have paid millions of dollars for them. Abbott will be paying them compensation….
ACCU’s are traceable permits however they are not issued to the top 500 emitting companies. I agree that companies who have purchased ACCU’s create an issue that has to be addressed if the CPRS is completely reversed however companies have been fully aware of the Coalition policy.
[Whats wrong with getting rid of the carbon tax?
Everyones power bills go down and we all win. Thank you Mr Abbott!]
Oh FFS. Seriously, there needs to be an IQ test for votes.
@Sean/973
That’s like you saying you don’t need any compensation for taking Telstra’s Network.
davidwh
How about the Ice Works that Tony Abbott visited, failing to note the photovoltaic solar panels paid for by the Federal Govt.
Do they have to give them back?
It is not simple is it.
local news showed while Abbott was in tam worth
CSG protestors and farmers have taken to twitter to vent their frustration after they were turned away from luncheon with the leader.
crikey whitey
You can listen to the fire gound radio traffic live here http://www.urgmsg.net/live/
Questions are also ask
Was was Abbott promoting Joyce
where was the nationals Leader Warren Truss
Rua no it isn’t and I don’t agree with the reversal of the scheme just a faster conversion to a market based system.
All carbon credits, including regulated carbon credits, are not backed by any assets and don’t pay any dividends or interest. Some also have expiry or cancellation dates when they become worthless