Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party vote down three points, and personal ratings returning to equilibrium after unusually bad results for Labor last time. Essential Research and Morgan also have Labor up slightly following slumps last week.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 55-45, down from 58-42 last fortnight. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (up one). Last fortnight’s spike has also come off in the personal ratings, with Julia Gillard up two on approval to 28% and down three on disapproval to 62%, Tony Abbott down four to 35% and up four 54%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 43-35 to 40-37.

The weekly Essential Research has Labor up a point to 32%, the Coalition steady on 49% and the Greens down two to 9%, with two-party preferred steady on 56-44. Perceptions of the economy have improved (good up 10 points since a year ago to 45% and poor down three to 26%). Those who answered good or poor were respectively asked why the government wasn’t popular, and what it was that made them think that given low unemployment and inflation. Strong support was also found for taxing superannuation earnings and contributions of high-income earners, at 55% compared with 35% opposed.

Morgan has also come in earlier than usual with its weekly multi-mode poll result, which has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 31%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 46.5% and the Greens down one to 10%. That pans out to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 56-44 on previous election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,005 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Margaret Thatcher said it. Bob Carr has more legitimacy for bringing it up then the constant Juli@r crap we have been putting up with for years.

    Besides, we have had enough gilding of Howard’s rather weak and stinking lilly, without starting the same for Margaret Thatcher.

  2. Leon,
    I don’t think it makes much difference whether in her older years she was here or not. The damage was done, and lives ruined by that wretched woman, and her party of vandals, before she was tossed aside by the class that used and dumped her.

    But as a passing of into history of a toxic era, yes, the world is a better place.

  3. The class shown by the British House of Commons in the condolence motion highlights what we lack here in Australia.

    It is not that you need to show glowing praise for your political opponent, plenty of Scottish, Irish and Labour MPs have shown their disdain for her policies, but they have at least shown class and respect for the family members and supporters mourning her death.

    Those dancing in the streets and celebrating just demonstrate the difference between having class and not having class.

  4. Mod Lib i agree that the condolences speeches have been impressive compared to some of the rubbish we see in Canberra but i think that says more about the traditional of British politics

  5. How is this angelic woman they speak of…

    I listen to the endless stream of phoney praise for Thatcher..whose passion for the cause of the rich and powerfull…has earned their thanks..e.g Murdoch…whose minions helped her smash the unions and lower workers living standards

    One scarcely knows the woman THEY now praise who NOW soundS like Mother Threase or Mary McKillop

    No mention of the many forced to live on the edge of poverty by her actions…which saw the number of kids in poverty rise from one in seven…to one in three..and unemployment figures never sank to the million in such hardship before she came to power…but rose at one stage to 3 million…she was saved from a first term defeat by the murderous army fascists in Argentina…who were stupid to a marked degree…and gave her a chance to play the wartime leader…to the English.. who are a most warlike glorious Empire…when they knew how to keep subject peoples like the Irish and the Indians under the yoke

    That splendid Labor rebel George Galloway may have spoken for many when he said “Rot in Hell Maggie ”
    He won’t be in the Commons today I suspect !

  6. Whilst i could sit here and list several bad things i think all reformist Governments make both positive and non positive comments

    I am not going to defend her many mistakes but i do think the Left needs to remember that hating Maggie is no different than the right hating Gillard or Keating or Whitlam

  7. Deb

    I think there is no dealt that one of Britons current problems and that being a lack of a strong manufacturing sector was caused by Maggie short-sighted obsession with all things economic.

    But her influence was felt the world over as we saw here in Australia but under a more balanced Government of Hawke/Keating

  8. Mos Lib,
    Yes, it is a shame Tony Abbott could not show the same class over the death of PM Julia Gillard’s Father.

  9. Deblonay,
    I agree with you. And the Right want to do the same whitewash job on Maggie Thatcher as they have done with Reagan and Howard. We are all supposed to forget the misery and death they caused, give them a $20mil funeral and rewrite their wretched history.

    The Right can get stuffed, I am not playing that game.

  10. People are dancing in the street because Mrs Thatcher and her cronies HURT them, and caused trans-generational suffering. If it gives them some comfort, turn up the music.

  11. The “Iron Lady” just collapsed into rust. RIP Margaret Thatcher, who helped inflict neoconservatism on the world, how good is that? Just look at Cyprus!

    “No such thing as society” poor deluded moron!

    But she was a qualified research chemist and understood the ozone hole and championed banning gases that destroyed ozone, would have recognised danger of global warming. Typically, what she was working on before entering politics was how to get more air into icecream—the more air, the less actual icecream in a tub etc.

  12. Puffy

    The Right’s job on Reagan is not convincing, yes he went to Berlin and called for the wall to come down but he actually started the surge in debt that now bedevils that country

    Howard had his good moments like gun control but after 2001 i cannot think of one positive in all of his last six years.

  13. To be concise, that reaction is not a fault in the Left, it is a consequence of the actions of the Right.

    The same will happen to Howard.

  14. [1957

    I think there is no dealt that one of Britons current problems and that being a lack of a strong manufacturing sector was caused by Maggie short-sighted obsession with all things economic.]

    Rather than having an “obsession with things economic”, Thatcher ignored much of economics and instead applied the simplistic prescriptions of “monetarism” in the same way that Fraser and Howard in this economy. Her doctrinaire approach really substituted ideological fashion for reason – and absolute tragedy for all those affected. Had it not been for the fortuitous development of North Sea oil, Britain would probably have turned into another Greece.

  15. PolAn.
    Air into icecream? Do we as a society waste our money on crap research like that?

    We deserve to go extinct.

  16. I think its been well known for many years that the day Maggie passed on that many in particular from the north, wales and scotland would celebrate.

    I think its a mistake for her maj to lead the service and it may just tip the Scottish referendum vote

  17. Nah, Howard lost govt and his seat, his heritage will be as a trivia quiz question “Who was the second PM to lose his seat?”

    Also his one reform fanbois crap on about: the GST. That is being shown up for a heap of crap right now.

  18. Yup. Icecream is whipped so always some air. What food manufacturers do has driven me out of supermarkets and to farmers markets and growing own veg and soon chickens (hip replacement operation judged a success today so can build the chicken run.)

  19. Nah the GST has been highly successful, yes it needed to be on everything in order to be totally effective.

    Governments in this country are for the most part financially very strong.

  20. The only grave I will dance on is that of my ex business partner, prick about ruined the business and left with well over $100,000 debts. I lived in the small claims court for a few months 🙂 but rescued the business and added the brewshop later on.

  21. I reckon Swanny should broaden the GST base and bump it to 15% and overcompensate pensioners and lower income workers and spend the money on Gonski and NDIS.

    If Tone was to be elected the bloody Libs wouldn’t be able to do anything to the GST, sure they are planning on doubling it—and they will give those on low incomes the same bracket creep returned Howard did while those on $250K pa will get huge tax cuts.

    The reluctance of consumers to spend has hit State revenues.

    Swanny should also take back payroll tax, set a decent uniform rate and give the revenue from that to the States.

  22. No the rate is fine, i think if the Governments put some effort in i think they could find a way to provide better services without changing taxes.

    There is still plenty of waste caused by ineffective services and assets like the NBN will in time become revenue raisers

  23. If we put all the federal and states together we would have well over 400 billion dollars and if they worked together then that revenue could be spent in a way that delivered

  24. But the Libs, whenever they get in, will be itching to increase the GST and hand out the huge tax cuts to their mates.

  25. Yes i know that but politically Toe would struggle to overcome a sudden change that didn’t have the support of the states.

    It would be his carbon price

  26. Well, a few months ago Eleventy Joe said the funding for all their policies had been worked out. To me that means doubling the GST—and Tone could give 5% to the States and keep 5%. No opposition from the States!

    So I would like Swanny to broaden the base, bump the rate to 15% and compensate those on low incomes. You know, pre-emptive action.

  27. But Ugly Toe must know would only get one term as PM. He would do Mordor’s bidding, everyone will hate him and the Libs would dump him.

  28. PolAn,
    If the ALP did that, they would have no chance on Sept 14. There is money there, if they were to stop giving it to those who don’t need it. But again, too difficult in last 6 months of term. In the first year but not the last.

  29. Just posted a quibble (followed by a non-quibble question) up on Possum’s site re the Megapoll:

    Methods quibble: did you determine by experiment whether or not inclusion of the words “called the Costello Report” in the preamble between questions 1 and 2 affected results?

    My concern here is that while the reference to the name of the report is perfectly factual (at least in the sense of that name being widely used in popular discussion), it is also not strictly necessary to the following questions, and it causes the respondent to think about Peter Costello and his association with the plan. Voter views of Costello might be negative, so this is bringing to the forefront a possible reason for opposition – Peter Costello is involved – which might skew the responses. It might not actually make a difference, and probably wouldn’t make much, but do you know?

    Secondly, I found it interesting in the above findings that in many areas the Green vote goes fractionally down (and in some ditto for Others and KAP) in the privatisation mandate question. Assuming this is not just a statistical artefact of some kind, do the data include details of the flow of votes in and out of parties in these instances, so that it is known where the votes leaving the minor forces go? Do some voters actually change from minor parties to the LNP in this scenario, or do they change to the ALP, presumably on the grounds of supporting the main Opposition when it really matters?

  30. RE UK and North Sea Oil
    Yes Puff….your comment on the north sea oil is apt….Thatcher inhereted the bonanza of the oil finds and that helped the Balance of Payments…HOWEVER that era is coming to an end as the oil./gas reserves are coming to an end.too…..and the UK is growing dependent on Russian and others oil
    …then the balanmce odf payments problems will soon reappear as they did for Harold Wilson and Ted Heath…and UK living standards will start to fall steeply

    then the illusions of Thatcherism will fall away and the UK will be a much poorer country than before

  31. Tone would figure he would get two terms,most govts do.

    Swanny has been cutting Howard’s irresponsible spending and middle class welfare but going too quick might precipitate a recession.

    The Libs will apply austerity, crash the economy into recession then firstly introduce more austerity then god only knows. #Fraudband won’t be started, the shambles yesterday was just so they could say they had a broadband policy but no intention of implementing it. Maybe that is why Turncoat looked like he was in agony.

  32. [ deewhytony
    Posted Wednesday, April 10, 2013 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Take it from an electrical engineer –

    Electric current (electron flow) is of the order of millimetres per second in a conductor.

    It is the electric field (potential difference) that is established at near the light speed.

    In simple terms think of it as a train. Carriage one takes a long time to get to where carriage 100 is, but carriage 100 starts moving a lot sooner but not instantly.

    As you don’t care which electron kills you, nor which electron does the work, the speed of electron flow is interesting but not that important, you only interested in when one pops out the other one end when you push one in.

  33. Wayne Swan appeared very briefly tonight on Lateline giving a speech on the fall in revenue, attributed to a decline in company profits and taxes. He forecast continuing declines across the forward estimates, suggesting the budget will remain in deficit for years to come.

    This highlights again the imbalance in this economy. Because of the high exchange rate, it is not possible to run this economy with full employment and to balance the budget at the same time. Put another way, it will only be possible to balance the budget if one of two things happen – the dollar is allowed to depreciate or domestic demand is suppressed (and unemployment increases).

    The exchange rate is effectively being set by the monetary policies of dominant industrial countries to suit conditions in their economies. It is really time that monetary policy was set to suit conditions in this economy instead. Accordingly, the Government should revisit the exchange rate regime. If they do not, we will see many more retrenchments in manufacturing and many more deficits in the public accounts.

    The fall in company profits goes hand in hand with the decline in 2012 in real per capita disposable incomes and the declines in non-resource-related investment – factors that foretell a gradual slide towards recession in parts of the economy.

  34. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Thursday, April 11, 2013 at 1:07 am | PERMALINK
    Mos Lib,
    Yes, it is a shame Tony Abbott could not show the same class over the death of PM Julia Gillard’s Father.]

    That is exactly my point: People are behaving exactly like Abbott, or the christian extremists who protest at the funerals of gay people, or those in the middle east who went out into the streets and danced after terrorists killed Jewish civilians.

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