Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party vote down three points, and personal ratings returning to equilibrium after unusually bad results for Labor last time. Essential Research and Morgan also have Labor up slightly following slumps last week.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 55-45, down from 58-42 last fortnight. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (up one). Last fortnight’s spike has also come off in the personal ratings, with Julia Gillard up two on approval to 28% and down three on disapproval to 62%, Tony Abbott down four to 35% and up four 54%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 43-35 to 40-37.

The weekly Essential Research has Labor up a point to 32%, the Coalition steady on 49% and the Greens down two to 9%, with two-party preferred steady on 56-44. Perceptions of the economy have improved (good up 10 points since a year ago to 45% and poor down three to 26%). Those who answered good or poor were respectively asked why the government wasn’t popular, and what it was that made them think that given low unemployment and inflation. Strong support was also found for taxing superannuation earnings and contributions of high-income earners, at 55% compared with 35% opposed.

Morgan has also come in earlier than usual with its weekly multi-mode poll result, which has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 31%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 46.5% and the Greens down one to 10%. That pans out to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 56-44 on previous election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,005 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. [Established middle class.

    I wonder if there is anyone on the site who isn’t.]

    Technical middle class.

    But they don’t ask a lot of questions, such as: what degree of cousinage to the Royal Family are you? (the Queen is my 18th cousin twice removed). Can you name all the members for Corangamite back to Federation? (Yes). Do you support a football team which hasn’t won a premiership for nearly 50 years? (Yes).

  2. I agree, confessions. The same ideological disposition that validates denialist polemics (it is inaccurate to call it reasoning!) also gives Abbott his platform.

    But reality will mug them all in the end….and the day is already arriving here, sad to say.

    Speaking of denalists, the IPA/LNP gang seem to have gone elsewhere to play. Perhaps they are sulking.

  3. Psephos

    I am not sure that test asks the right sorts of questions, i think things like sports teams and education are important factors.

  4. Take it from an electrical engineer –

    Electric current (electron flow) is of the order of millimetres per second in a conductor.

    It is the electric field (potential difference) that is established at near the light speed.

  5. I don’t have a problem with what Bishop said, I am not sure why Carr needed to say what he said, sure make the comment in a valedictory speech to the parliament for that would be the proper forum but i don’t think he needs to apology

  6. mb

    Senator Carr was giving an honest recollection. To do otherwise is not to respect the person when asked about his recollection.

    Bishop not liking the recollection does not change the facts of Senator Carrs recollection.

    Way over the top calls by Bishop. Now British Tabloid press is going to pursue it.

  7. deewhytony@1908

    Take it from an electrical engineer –

    Electric current (electron flow) is of the order of millimetres per second in a conductor.

    It is the electric field (potential difference) that is established at near the light speed.

    Decades since I studied Electrical Engineering so maybe my memory is at fault. But I don’t recall the term ‘electric field’ being used in that context although clearly we are talking about the same thing.

  8. MB

    The British did not paint over the zebra crossing the Beatles made famous.

    Lots of tourists were liking it. Shows the smallness of the thinking.

  9. political animal@1911


    Where did the figure of 90% come from?

    Think you are confusing current and field.

    I think we are arguing about terminology.
    I agree about speed of electrons being quite slow.
    What I am calling current, you are referring to as field.
    The >90% what I recalled and then confirmed by looking up Wikipedia which quoted 95-97% of speed of light in an unshielded copper conductor.

  10. Mark the Ballot….by the way, have you thought of applying Bayesian methods to the run of temperature data we’ve had this year in order to depict the likelihood of so many record-hot days occurring in such a short time frame?

  11. [1920

    You are a devoted weather-watcher, confessions. I wonder where this comes from?

    😀 Not sure.]

    It is a constantly evolving drama.

  12. Carr should have refrained from his recollections until after the lady was properly laid to rest. It was unnecessary from our Foreign Minister. If Bishop gave him a serve then it was well deserved.

  13. The only different about this policy launch was that Malcolm lied about the cost of the real NBN to sell his obsolete junk.

    FTTN is just obsolete and the copper is not in shape for it—that we knew before.

  14. Guytaur

    I accept your point about Carr, one of my biggest bug bears when someone passes away is how all of a sudden that person becomes a great all-round faultless person.

    I do think there is a place for those stories.

    I will admit to not being overly surprised by Carr’s comments and the British Tabloids may be better to focus on their many problems

  15. @ABCNews24: Coming up on #ABCNews24 we’ll go live to London, where a special session of parliament will be held to pay tribute to Margaret Thatcher.

  16. [1927
    cud chewer


    You can tell it was a lemon by the fact that lateline never mentioned it :)]

    Yes, a token mention only last night…haven’t seen tonight’s yet.

  17. I think you are looking for electromagnetic waves which travel at the speed of light but please don’t ask me to explain it scientifically. Basically I think electrons create energy which is then transferred as the EW’s or something like that.

  18. Something which i notice hasn’t been mentioned Maggie old seat for a while or it may still be the case is held by the Labour Party

  19. MM not particularly, I don’t consider those comments about Thatcher to be any less distasteful than comments Jones made about our PM.

  20. I think it is a bit rich for the left to oppose remembering Maggie then in the next breathe complain about the right’s attitude to Gillard

  21. [Mark the Ballot
    Posted Wednesday, April 10, 2013 at 10:45 pm | PERMALINK
    I have recalculated (and rebalanced) my Bayesian aggregation to yield a TPP estimate this week of 44 to 56 in the Coalition’s favour:

    Appreciate any comments people may have on methodology.]


    Thank you for the opportunity to feedback to you directly! I love your work and check out your updates regularly. I am not qualified to discuss your statistical torturing, but I do enjoy looking at the pretty graphs which is about my level of understanding.

    I asked William and I think Kevin about this some time ago, but I don’t understand why you dont do Meta-analysis of the polling result of the most recent polls using the technique that the Cochrane Collaboration use for medical trials? The polls are essentially like medical trials, both estimating the “truth” in point estimates….

  22. [This little black duck
    Posted Wednesday, April 10, 2013 at 9:47 pm | PERMALINK


    I do cryptic crosswords quite well …]

    My life’s greatest achievement was winning the SMH Cryptic Crossword prize once.

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