Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party vote down three points, and personal ratings returning to equilibrium after unusually bad results for Labor last time. Essential Research and Morgan also have Labor up slightly following slumps last week.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 55-45, down from 58-42 last fortnight. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (up one). Last fortnight’s spike has also come off in the personal ratings, with Julia Gillard up two on approval to 28% and down three on disapproval to 62%, Tony Abbott down four to 35% and up four 54%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 43-35 to 40-37.

The weekly Essential Research has Labor up a point to 32%, the Coalition steady on 49% and the Greens down two to 9%, with two-party preferred steady on 56-44. Perceptions of the economy have improved (good up 10 points since a year ago to 45% and poor down three to 26%). Those who answered good or poor were respectively asked why the government wasn’t popular, and what it was that made them think that given low unemployment and inflation. Strong support was also found for taxing superannuation earnings and contributions of high-income earners, at 55% compared with 35% opposed.

Morgan has also come in earlier than usual with its weekly multi-mode poll result, which has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 31%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 46.5% and the Greens down one to 10%. That pans out to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 56-44 on previous election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,005 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. From last thread

    Bongiorno nails it again.

    “@PaulBongiorno: Margaret Thatcher had difficulty with the concept of society. She was however a tough conviction politician.”

  2. [@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 32 (+2) L/NP 48 (-2) GRN 11 (+1) #auspol]

    Others still high at 9, LNP looking soft

  3. I thought that the polls would improve for the Government.

    Super is not a undermining the government since Friday and Abbott`s statement about urban rail funding will be costing the Coalition.

  4. William
    Thatcher’s song is definitely “If I Could Turn Back Time”. The only thing lacking from her bravura performance on the Falklands was straddling a 40mm gun in fishnets on a battleship in the Thames.

    (That’s what Alexander Downer was trying to describe when caught on film, I believe.)

  5. Probably closer to the real numbers. The last poll was a knee-jerk response to the calamity of the “challenge that wasn’t”.

    Still, it’s hard to see Labor consistently breaking through the 54/46 barrier. Other than a few outliers that seems to be where we’ve been at for the best part of two years.

  6. Fess I forgot to mention that I gave the NBN as one of my choices. Thought it appropriate for today. Bloke said he has NBN already and it is great.

  7. “@Colvinius: I covered Britain and Europe in the 80s. Asking Thatcher a q at a press conf was intimidating. Her gaze swivelled on you like a tank-barrel.”

  8. Looks like a margin-of-error bounce to me.

    Next couple of weeks will be interesting as the impact (or lack thereof) of Labor’s aggressive campaign on superannuation hits home (or fails to do so) with the voters.

  9. As for Thatcher – not a fan of her politics, but mad respect for her steely determination… her moniker was well-deserved.

  10. It seems to me that Labor’s “bounces” are being too-heartily celebrated by its supporters. They seem more like cases of the shock of various crises that force Coalition numbers into the stratosphere wearing off rather than actual improvement.

  11. Compact C

    It was a bad move to let your man Abbott out of his box. The more he appears in the media, the lower the LNP vote.

  12. Perhaps, as the LNP poll advantage registers with voters they will start to really have a close look at the LNP and the truth will dawn – the LNP are good at just one thing: telling lies.

  13. “@PaulBongiorno: Just a reminder to mrs Thatcher’s Oz fan club. She was a qualified scientist who accepted anthropogenic climate change.”

  14. “@sspencer_63: British Music has never recovered from Thatcher’s axing. Without her it’s hard to imagine The Clash, Jam, Billy Bragg etc”

  15. I sort of predicted this “improvement” but somewhat subtly by remarking that Gillard being away can only do her good in the polls and hallelujah, here we are. Now if she can stay in China till Sep and get Swan to stay over there with her, she’s in with a show. The betting markets haven’t moved, still 1.10 LNP, 6.50 ALP so big chance to cash in on this “improvement”.

  16. As someone who would prefer Labor lost the election, bounces like this make me happy. They increase the chances Gillard will still be leader of the ALP in September. 🙂

  17. Interesting that the Greens are up !% and still firmly at 11%

    Makes a joke of some on PB who constantly forecast the “death” or” demise” of the Greens …while in effect their vote is ironcast

    Some people have to get used to it !
    and their prefs are vital to many ALP members if they are even to survive

  18. [@Simon_Cullen: Tony Abbott: “Margaret Thatcher was one of the greatest British prime ministers and one of the most significant world leaders of our times”]

    Abbott seems a bit subdued in his praise. And with good reason, she did support action on Climate Change after all…

  19. bemused

    Senator Conroy did well to point out it will cost you the customer $5000 to connect fibre to the home under LNP

    Now attacking Terror.

  20. [bemused
    Posted Monday, April 8, 2013 at 11:07 pm | PERMALINK
    I don’t think Conroy is going too well on Lateline.

    He is making it all too complex.]

    He is getting a beating but does’t seem to recognise it! 🙂

  21. @SamCD2301: “You shouldn’t believe anything The Daily Telegraph says about the NBN or this government.” – Senator Conroy #lateline #auspol

  22. guytaur@37


    Senator Conroy did well to point out it will cost you the customer $5000 to connect fibre to the home under LNP

    Now attacking Terror.

    But he lacks snappy phrases that will stick in peoples minds.

  23. The problem with the Greens is they will always attract a certain amount of single-issue voters, regardless of the lunacy that is the rest of their policies.

  24. @35 I doubt that the Greens will ever die like the Democrats but it is interesting to see how badly they did in WA with such a high profile Cause as James Price Point.

  25. PuffTheMagicDragon PuffTheMagicDragon ‏@PuffyTMD 18m

    Condolences to the family of Baroness Margaret Thatcher. A strong public figure in the 2nd 1/2 of 20th Century, 1st female British PM. RIP

  26. @Simon_Cullen: Julia Gillard: “Her service as the first female Prime Minister of the United Kingdom was a history making achievement.” #thatcher

    @Simon_Cullen: Julia Gillard: “Her strength of conviction was recognised by her closest supporters and her strongest opponents.

  27. CC

    Joe Hildebrand is a faarkwit of the highest order, and to quote him as an authority on anything is disturbing in the extreme.

    Very obvious that with Rupert Murdoch in town, his Pavlovian dogs ramp up the NBN criticism.

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