Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party vote down three points, and personal ratings returning to equilibrium after unusually bad results for Labor last time. Essential Research and Morgan also have Labor up slightly following slumps last week.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 55-45, down from 58-42 last fortnight. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (up one). Last fortnight’s spike has also come off in the personal ratings, with Julia Gillard up two on approval to 28% and down three on disapproval to 62%, Tony Abbott down four to 35% and up four 54%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 43-35 to 40-37.

The weekly Essential Research has Labor up a point to 32%, the Coalition steady on 49% and the Greens down two to 9%, with two-party preferred steady on 56-44. Perceptions of the economy have improved (good up 10 points since a year ago to 45% and poor down three to 26%). Those who answered good or poor were respectively asked why the government wasn’t popular, and what it was that made them think that given low unemployment and inflation. Strong support was also found for taxing superannuation earnings and contributions of high-income earners, at 55% compared with 35% opposed.

Morgan has also come in earlier than usual with its weekly multi-mode poll result, which has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 31%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 46.5% and the Greens down one to 10%. That pans out to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 56-44 on previous election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,005 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Assange doing live presser now.

    “@wikileaks: Assange: Orwell once said that he who controls the present controls the past, and he who controls the past controls the future.”

  3. 55 is not at all surprising or interesting. The 58 was way over trend and well over aggregate of other polls, this one is just returning to something sensible.

    I’ve redone the treatment of house effects in my quick-and-simple aggregate model, ripping out the picking on Essential and instead adding in a global house effect estimate, which I tweaked slightly because of the recent behaviour of Essential.

    Anyway on that basis my current aggregate estimate is 55.8 to Coalition.

  5. sprocket @49 – Hildebrand is an ALP supporter and clearly has a more insightful understanding of politics than most of the ALP Caucus and at least half the posters here.

  6. JV

    [In his early conversations with US officials, he appears to have followed the lead of Mr Ducker, his NSW Labor right faction mentor, who advised the US on industrial relations issues and internal Labor politics, and dismissed critics of the US alliance as being engaged in “emotional, silly expression lacking in substance and characteristic of the silly left-wing fringe of the ALP”.
    ]

    Bruvver Ducker may have been talking about you?

  8. It’s around where I thought it would be Kevin although I thought the primary might have been 47 and 33. The 50 and 30 always looked to generous to the Coalition.

  9. If a decadent and desperate military dictatorship in Argentina had not attacked the Falklands, Thatcher would have been thrown out of office by a disenchanted Tory Party. Like Howard and Bush, she a was a beneficiary of military adventurism despite all kinds of military, diplomatic and intelligence bungling in the prelude to the War.

  11. [24
    bemused

    briefly@13

    bemused…the less we fight among ourselves, the higher the PV will climb.

    Oh so it’s all controlled by PB?

    Do try to be serious.]

    I mean “we” in a general way…you know, the greater movement, the FPLP and all who travel with her…try not to be so self-centred.

  12. political animal
    I am going to whack you over the knuckles if you start the PB are you double dee carousel turning again.

  18. Guytaur
    [Assange may be many things. Coward is not one of them]
    Mmmmm avoiding his legal obligations by hiding in an embassy. What is he then?

  20. Guytaur
    [@BBCNews: Thatcher “did great hurt to Irish & British people during time as prime minister” – Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein leader http://t.co/GfBRGKv2nY%5D
    I should have guessed – a Gerry Adams fan. Now there’s a clean-skin (not) to pass judgement on the UK’s “first and only female PM”. (Was that sexist, confessions, puffy etc?)

  22. Puff. That is true. Although I don’t imagine she had that in mind when she caused the enormous loss of livelihood in shutting down the mines. Nor did she seek repair of the society she destroyed.

    ‘Someone on Twitter just reminded me of something. Thatcher accepted human-caused global warming.’

  23. Thatcher also spotted a deal with Gorbachev…talked Reagan into peace-making. So she deserves a lot of credit for that…for making it possible to end the Cold War.

  25. [74
    William Bowe

    Anyway on that basis my current aggregate estimate is 55.8 to Coalition.

    Mine too.]

    You’re just saying that to cheer up the Laborites, William.

  31. [@piersmorgan “Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren’t.” Margaret Thatcher.

    PuffTheMagicDragon ‏@PuffyTMD 50s

    @piersmorgan A bit like Abbott telling us he is a feminist]

  34. The +8 netsat Abbott picked up in the previous poll has gone back to where it came from, probably because it was never real in the first place.

    Since the last 55-45 (three polls ago, pre-spill, and the last NP that was not widely bucketed for being out of whack) Abbott’s netsat is +3, Gillard’s is -6, and Gillard’s PPM is +1. Those are not massive changes.

  36. [83
    Psephos

    How’s the political life, Psephos? Any signs of hope after the tornado?

    Life is, as always, beautiful. And I am always full of hope.]

    Hope, some luck and good timing…always a chance, I reckon.

  37. KB, the melodrama effect is wearing off. Perhaps the focus can switch back to the LOTO and his self-contradictory non-policies and lies….now there is hope for you!

  38. briefly@87

    KB, the melodrama effect is wearing off. Perhaps the focus can switch back to the LOTO and his self-contradictory non-policies and lies….now there is hope for you!

    I’m expecting some media forces to really start sinking the boot into Abbott only when they’re absolutely certain they won’t stop him winning. Just so they can pretend that they were trying. 🙂

  39. Hmm, Newspoll getting better as the Noalition start putting out more definitive positions around policy, like “We are going to screw over the NBN” and “We are going to rip off low income earners super”, and “oH my doG we are Cyprus”!!!!!

    Will be interesting if Newspoll stops bouncing and trends up for a while.

  40. 89

    Don`t forget “We will not fund urban rail”.

    There is a whiff of Fightback about a number of the Noalition`s policies.

  41. As I stated last time I reckon that result of recent events will take some time to filter through….the failed Rudd trap and later the big stuff up by Labor with Super will settle somewhere in the consciousness of those that were paying attention.

    The 42/58 result was on the back of deteriorating personal stats for Gillard and foreshadowed a worse poll result that came, ..so something may have been possibly going on. 55/45 could be just the polls going back to ‘normal’ or could be toward one side of MOE.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 40/60 result at one extreme end of MOE before settling to around 44/57.

  43. Out of interest, I’ve had a look at some stats on selected areas of public spending during Thatcher’s terms in office

    As % of GDP from 1979 to 1990

    Education 5.1 to 4.3%
    Defence 5.7 to 4.1%
    Health 4.6 to 5.1%
    Welfare 10.1 to 9.2%
    Interest 4.5 to 3.3%

  46. How long before News Media has front page articles, editorials and opinion pieces with disparaging comparisons of PM Gillard with Rupert’s hero Thatcher (she helped make him very rich and powerful by working within him to break printer’s unions)?

    what’s the bet Abbott, Howard, and half the lib front and back bench head to London for the funeral. I wonder if Pell will go? The media will lionise her rather than focus on the decade of suffering she inflicted on workers and the least well off for the benefit of the wealthy and the financial markets ponzi scheme that caused the GFC.

    I’m hoping a freakish storm that can only be attributed to climate change takes down Abbott’s plane, and hope Howard, Pell, Joyce etc go with him.

    pity is, the PM will probably have to go – if she doesn’t she’ll be attacked for disrespect; but if she does she’ll be attached for hypocrisy. As I heard some commentator say the other day “If the PM walked on water over Sydney harbour, the media would have the headline ‘SHE CAN’T SWIM'”.

  47. Psephos congratulations on your new appointment

    Tom First & Best I found Tone’s position on urban railway funding to be somewhat sad

  48. I’m still waiting for the internet filter, the failed media laws, and the National Bankruptcy Networw Lemon. Conjob the F&%^tard has destroyed the party.

  49. Morgan snuck out its weekly multi-mode poll result some time today (yesterday) without any of us noticing:

    Primary: ALP 31 (+1), L-NP 46.5 (-2.5), GRN 10 (-1).
    Respondent allocated 2PP: L-NP 56.5 (-2.5) ALP 43.5 (+2.5).
    Previous election 2PP: L-NP 56 (-1.5) ALP 44 (+1.5).

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2013/4882/

    Compared with the latest numbers out of BludgerTrack, these primary votes are 1.3% low for Labor, 1.4% low for the Coalition and 0.7% high for the Greens. Averaging the equivalent figures over five polls (I’m excluding the first of the six from BT because I don’t know what to make of its sample size of 9000 – the polls since have been around 3000) to produce my bias adjustments, I now have the series being 1.6% low for Labor, 0.6% low for the Coalition and 1.3% high for the Greens.

  50. Mark Arbib-style briefing of sinister foreign powers would appear to have a long pedigree:

    [The February 26, 1976, cable states Labor Party officials and senators had confirmed the Iraqi cash-for-policy approach, and rejected the official line that no discussion of campaign contributions took place in the meeting with the Middle East diplomats.

    “In separate conversations with (embassy officials), ALP senator John Wheeldon, ALP senator James McClelland, and ALP representative Kim Beazley (Sr), all were convinced that Whitlam and Coombe (sic) went much further than that and that an agreement to accept Iraqi money was made.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/wikileaks/us-predicted-the-dismissal/story-fn775xjq-1226615273378

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