Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party vote down three points, and personal ratings returning to equilibrium after unusually bad results for Labor last time. Essential Research and Morgan also have Labor up slightly following slumps last week.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 55-45, down from 58-42 last fortnight. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (up one). Last fortnight’s spike has also come off in the personal ratings, with Julia Gillard up two on approval to 28% and down three on disapproval to 62%, Tony Abbott down four to 35% and up four 54%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 43-35 to 40-37.

The weekly Essential Research has Labor up a point to 32%, the Coalition steady on 49% and the Greens down two to 9%, with two-party preferred steady on 56-44. Perceptions of the economy have improved (good up 10 points since a year ago to 45% and poor down three to 26%). Those who answered good or poor were respectively asked why the government wasn’t popular, and what it was that made them think that given low unemployment and inflation. Strong support was also found for taxing superannuation earnings and contributions of high-income earners, at 55% compared with 35% opposed.

Morgan has also come in earlier than usual with its weekly multi-mode poll result, which has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 31%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 46.5% and the Greens down one to 10%. That pans out to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 56-44 on previous election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,005 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Abbott lies so smoothly because he believes he is “Lying for Jesus”. Anything is fair game if you believe that. The prick thought that dog called him to a life of celibacy so what other stupid things does he believe ? Besides being a mummies boy he is uber desperate to fulfill her prediction that the “golden child” will end up as either the pope or the PM.

  2. Display name, stop defending bemused for making stuff up. He can apologise when he is ready.

    As to your own point, What future technology were you thinking about?

  6. [1832
    confessions

    Bugler:

    I’ve become interested in AGW for a few years or so now, as it was becoming obvious that its effects were escalating and becoming more evident.

    It’s an interest I have on the side, not an area I work in.]

    Confessions is not alone. Like many others in WA, I have a lot of contact with people whose livelihoods really depend on the natural environment. For many years lots of my friends and acquaintances just openly laughed at those who warned about CC. But not any more. It is a constant theme for many of them.

    They have seen their incomes fall from one year to the next and have watched while their assets have shrunk at the same time. In some particularly exposed areas, operating incomes have dropped by more than 90% and asset values have fallen by around 80% over the last decade, and even then asset sales are slow and thought to be over-priced.

    The people I’m referring to have supported themselves – in the past, enjoyed very good incomes – for decades. These days they make just token livings and have to endure constant doubt about whether future years things might fail completely.

    People now in their 50’s, 60’s and 70’s are stuck in the grip of destructive climate change. It is really arresting to watch. Old-timers, conservative and hard-worn, accustomed to getting their own way, self-reliant and (so they thought) grown shrewd with their past success now find they are helpless and mostly ignored. The maxims they have called on throughout their lives are not worth much these days. There seems to be nothing much they can do about it. Change is destroying them. Of course, they should change too, but for many this is proving too much to ask. Instead, they face defeat, sorrow and poverty. This is the future for very many of us.

  8. William,

    You mean this?

    [Technical middle class

    Percentage of population 6%

    Average age 52

    This is a small, distinctive and prosperous new class group:

    People in this group tend to mix socially with people similar to themselves

    They prefer emerging culture, such as using social media, to highbrow culture such as listening to classical music

    Many people in this group work in research, science and technical occupations

    They tend to live in suburban locations, often in the south east of England

    They come from largely middle class backgrounds]

  9. [William Bowe
    Posted Wednesday, April 10, 2013 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    I wonder if there is anyone on the site who isn’t.

    Some of us it seems are in the non-established middle class.]

    It will be income and home ownership, I bet.

  13. frednk, its amazing that the opposition get away with criticising Labor policy when they actually will not pass the biggest element- the Malaysian agreement.

    If the thought it would not work, they would pass it and it would give them all the ammunition they needed as it would be ALL of Labor’s policies that had failed

    Of course they think it might work so wont pass it.

    Wouldnt it be great if the Greens could be pragmatic and not idealistic and give Malaysia a go. It may help to prevent an Abbott PM

  14. PeeBee@1807

    Bemused. Stop accusing me of things I have not said.

    “You are confusing 2 concepts. The speed of light, and the data rate. The speed of light is irrelevant to this discussion. The data rate is all important.”

    I said that the information is transmitted in the fibre at the speed of light. That is all. I am not confusing anything, so please don’t be stupid and make stuff up.

    An electric current also travels at very close to the speed of light.

    So your point is?

  15. Nemspy, Ok a challenge- please list the Gillard lies.

    And dont start with the carbon tax, that was a broken promise. she thought it was the truth when she said it as it referred to Labor policy under a majority government.

    So when else has she lied?

  16. Tried to find it again but failed but the Guardian had a great quiz to determine what class you were. At the end of it all the scores came up with middle class. The bottom of the page said “You read this newspaper .What else do you expect ? ” 😆

  17. In my opinion, the Direct Action policy is a much much bigger turkey than Fraudband.

    I cannot believe the lack of scutiny of this policy by the OM

  18. These are some of the findings. I dunno if they apply to Australia but they are highly relevant politically if they do.

    [1. Twentieth-century middle-class and working-class stereotypes are out of date. Only 39% of participants fit into the Established Middle Class and Traditional Working Class categories.

    2. The traditional working class is changing. It’s smaller than it was in the past. The new generation are more likely to be Affluent Workers or Emergent Service Workers.

    3. People consume culture in a complicated way. The Technical Middle Class are less culturally engaged while emergent service workers participate in various activities.

    4. The extremes of our class system are very important. The Elite and Precariat often get forgotten with more focus on the middle and working classes. We’ve discovered detailed findings about them.]

  20. PeeBee, I’m not thinking of any. It could simply be better fibre. I did a quick serach and found “photonic crystal fibre” as an example. Anyway, it doesn’t matter too much because we’ve barely scratched the surface with the fibre we do have.

  21. Sent this after getting an email from A Southcott, surely the laziest MHR!
    ____________________

    Open letter To A. Southcott MP: Fast. Affordable. Sooner. The Coalition’s plan for a better NBN.Wednesday, 10 April, 2013 12:54 PM
    From: “Tom Smit” View contact details
    To: andrew.southcott.mp@aph.gov.au
    Cc: Malcolm.Turnbull.MP@aph.gov.au
    Obsolete technology, jammed onto copper way past the end of its life, maximum speed up to 25mbps for most of us is no solution.

    Cheaper, sooner—too early to make that claim as no negotiations with Telstra re use/ownership of the copper have yet been entered into and these no doubt lengthy negotiations need to again structurally separate Telstra. A dog’s breakfast in other words.

    By the time this stupid idea could be implemented, unless the Libs are crazy enough to stop the work immediately if they are elected and pay the penalty clauses, the NBN rollout will be proceeding apace and it would be an act of bastardry to stop it.

    The main lie in the policy tho: the Libs will stop the NBN rollout if elected, tho that will be stupid, and not replace it with anything. Instead, a Lib govt will clamp down austerity on the economy, causing job losses and an increase in the deficit, as austerity always does. Just look at Turnbull’s body language at the policy launch—he didn’t want to be there!

  24. [Here’s a quiz which puts you into a class. It’s interesting the questions that they don’t ask, even more than the questions they do ask.]

    I’m Established Middle Class.

    But since when has exercising or going to the gym been a cultural activity?

    Plus I think I buggered up the currency conversions on mortgage, salary, savings etc.

  26. [1874
    confessions

    Here’s a quiz which puts you into a class. It’s interesting the questions that they don’t ask, even more than the questions they do ask.

    I’m Established Middle Class.]

    Solidly precariat

  28. [People now in their 50′s, 60′s and 70′s are stuck in the grip of destructive climate change. It is really arresting to watch. Old-timers, conservative and hard-worn, accustomed to getting their own way, self-reliant and (so they thought) grown shrewd with their past success now find they are helpless and mostly ignored. ]

    Is AGW denialism necessarily something which pertains to the ageing or elderly? In my experience it’s more about socio-economic status which dictates the acceptance or rejection of AGW.

  31. PeeBee@1872

    Bemused,

    ‘An electric current also travels at very close to the speed of light.’

    What is your point?

    The point is, the speed of light or an electric current is irrelevant for this discussion.

    So what stuff do you reckon I made up?

  34. [Electric currents travel very slowly]
    In absolute terms, yes. They depend on the end points: electricity is only the difference in potential.

  37. confessions @ 1878…I think denialism is an aspect of social affiliation. The LNP have made it socially acceptable to hold and express denialist opinions. Were the LNP to change their stance, I think denialism would also recede.

    The people I was speaking of (above) were once denialist. These days, though they may still count themselves as conservatives, they have no choice on CC. They have to submit to the reality of their daily experiences.

    They are in a difficult place. The opinion-makers they instinctively trust are saying things they know to be wrong or even deliberately falsified.

  38. TLBD
    [ was I just bloviating?]
    Nah .So far youse be pretty damn cool and right on …………which I suppose means I must be the problem 🙂

  39. [1879
    confessions

    In my opinion, the Direct Action policy is a much much bigger turkey than Fraudband.

    Exactly! Yet where is OM on this?]

    I concur completely!

    The LNP have got a shocker of a policy…self-defeating, expensive & wasteful, opportunist and deceitful.

  42. The IPA manifesto…75 Points”’calls for the selling of the CSIRO..which now earns the hatred of the Right because of it’s stance on Climate Change

    This sort of madness comes from the IPA and from Bernardi’s blog

    In the US a recent book “The Republicans War on Science” looks at the same trend…denialism/anti-evolution and a host other matters ,including hostility to teaching science in schools
    a real anti-science trend on the Right

  43. [Were the LNP to change their stance, I think denialism would also recede.]

    Denialism bubbling away under the surface has given us Tony Abbott!

  44. LL (dickhead Jones in charge),

    1. Teh deficit

    2. Teh Boat. Talk to SL bloke

    No sign of Julia in China or Fraudban.

    Fuck ’em!

  45. pa and bemused, I think bemused’s “travel” is pa’s “propagation”. We can say the current propagates at the speed of light.

  46. briefly:

    Just further on the campaign by Perth Weather Live to get radars in the Pilbara and Margaret River, Steve posted a complaint from someone in the Eucla in response to the BoM closing down the Eucla station.

    BoM responded that radars have no discernible impact on their forecasting abilities, which for mine, kind of misses the point. Radars are about the users, not the forecasters.

    Anyway, watch this space. BoM admits they could improve forecasting in the Wheatbelt at least.

  47. Andrew:

    [Wouldnt it be great if the Greens could be pragmatic and not idealistic and give Malaysia a go. It may help to prevent an Abbott PM]

    No, it would make it, if anything, more likely, by making success of the policy a focus issue. In the unlikely event it succeded in cutting the number of boats, the OM would still focus on the failures.

    Worse still, this failure to prevent an Abbott victory would come at a dreadful cost — the silencing of the one organised voice standing up in parliament for a non-punitive refugee policy. Parliament would be unanimous on locking up children for the crime of fleeing brutality and squalor.

    Everyone except the Liberals loses in that scenario and the damage to the left would be far more serious and longer-lived.

  48. Ducky

    The boat is quite funny. The first person to pick it up was someone in a high building who tweeted the news out.

    That’s not a great sign for our border protection surveillance.

  50. DisplayName@1895

    pa and bemused, I think bemused’s “travel” is pa’s “propagation”. We can say the current propagates at the speed of light.

    PA was right about the electrons moving quite slowly, but the electric current “propagates” if you like at >90% of the speed of light.

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