BludgerTrack finds Labor’s tailspin continuing as the trend catches up with the slump that has followed last fortnight’s leadership fiasco, with two new polls (both conducted despite the interruption of Easter) adding further fuel to the fire. Labor sheds a further 1.6% on the primary vote and 1.1% on two-party preferred, with the seat projection putting the Coalition shy of a century that would be achieved with the gain of just one independent seat.
The new poll results are from Essential Research and Morgan’s new multi-mode series, which supplements their much-maligned face-to-face polling with online surveying, and which I am now introducing to BludgerTrack for the first time. The results are being adjusted with bias measures obtained against the poll trend itself, so adding it will not introduce any bias to the model that isn’t there already. So far, the move looks to be producing results more typical of phone polling than the notoriously Labor-leaning face-to-face series. This year Morgan has published five face-to-face followed by five multi-mode polls, and the average deviations from the trend have been as follows:
Face-to-face: Labor +1.0%, Coalition -3.9%, Greens +0.7%.
Multi-mode: Labor -1.4%, Coalition -0.9%, Greens +1.5%.
The latter set of numbers are the ones I am currently using for the bias adjustment (I will recalculate this each week), and they’re very similar to those I’m using for Galaxy.
The other development in BludgerTrack is that Newspoll’s quarterly aggregate has been added to the state differentials calculation, which again puts Victoria’s anti-Labor swing ahead of New South Wales. One possibly unfortunate consequence of the new numbers being added is that any post-leadership crisis effect in Queensland is being further obscured by a result that was four-fifths derived from before the event.
[Mod Lib
Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 9:07 pm | Permalink
I reckon Credlin would have a good shot at winning that Gruen Transfer award for quality advertising.
Can’t believe what she appears to have done with Abbott.]
Can she keep it up for 5 months?
[Can she keep it up for 5 months?]
That’s a lot of fluffing!
After 4 years, I imagine 5 months doesn’t seem that long…
As the election looms and people decide that they definitely want to get rid of Gillard, you might find “Abbott not that bad after all” effect in the polls.
mod lib,
For those of even state of mind, time passes as it should.
For those who have been spitting the dummy for two-and-a-half years it must seem like torture.
[Mod Lib
Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 9:12 pm | PERMALINK
After 4 years, I imagine 5 months doesn’t seem that long…]
She has still not tried to get Abbott to use four word slogans yet.
I don’t think torture is the right description of Abbott’s mood.
You can see him trying not to smile and look to happy and confident every time he fronts the media trying to look statesmanlike.
Does anyone think Shorten will try to wrest the leadership before September and have a punt himself?
Credlin
[Can she keep it up for 5 months?]
For once I have to agree with ModLib, what is there to keep up?
The Federal ALP could have the solution to global warning, the arms trade, American war-mongering and even truth in advertising and it would come across as another threat to every puppy in the land.
How the once great ALP could have become run by such a group of political amateurs devoid of any ideology (unless you count “working families” and “Labor values” are ideologies) is surely the topic of many future PhDs.
I have often wondered whether “working families” and “labor values” were the same ideology?
I suppose it is just Family First but with all family members working rather than going to church!
Mod Lib @ 2157,
There is a slight hope for you yet.
[http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/world/let-manus-detainees-mingle-with-locals/story-e6frfkui-1226613521156]
Labor detention of Kids…….. its all very JWH of Labor.
rummell
[She has still not tried to get Abbott to use four word slogans yet.]
She does not have to.
Abbott could say anything and the media would just accept it.
In my 60+ years I have never seen an opposition leader treated so not just uncritically, but actively promoted by the media.
It is a bit like North Korea. He will be Dear Leader soon.
I mean he is both Murdoch’s and Pell’s botoxed boy!!!
swamprat
Dear Gillard has provided the key advantage to Abbott.
[Does anyone think Shorten will try to wrest the leadership before September and have a punt himself?]
No.
[
Swamprat
Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 9:21 pm | Permalink
Credlin
Can she keep it up for 5 months?
For once I have to agree with ModLib, what is there to keep up?
]
I suppose Credlen has the little labor children like yourself to help her out.
Tony Abbott, Rhodes scholar, says whatever comes into his mind.
Whatever degree he was given by the dark blues should be rescinded immediately.
rummel @ 2163,
You are much better than that!
I know this will be taken as baiting here, in the hallowed halls of the non-believers, but can the ALP seriously be planning to go to an election with Gillard still at the helm?
I mean seriously…
rummell
[swamprat
Dear Gillard has provided the key advantage to Abbott.]
You really don’t get it.
It is absurd to call her Dear Gillard, she is roundly condemned for even wearing glasses. In the Australian media she is the Great Satan.
We are (Murdoch is) breathlessly waiting for the Dear Leader/Ayotollah Abbott (from Abbottabad?)
swamprat,
rummel is going the needle. Don’t bite.
Rummel bows his head in respect…:
“She is doing a great job. Abbott looks like PM material.”
Tabbott, Rummel, always has and always will look like a devious bastard!
frednk
[I suppose Credlen has the little labor children like yourself to help her out.]
1. I am not a little labor child.
2. How the bloody hell am I helping Credlin out?
Do you think opposition to the right-wing political incompetents running the ALP means one is a Liberal Party supporter?
If that is what Big Labor Adults think, my case rests.
Prime Minister elect devious bastard thank you very much
[We are (Murdoch is) breathlessly waiting for the Dear Leader/Ayotollah Abbott (from Abbottabad?)]
Wrong. People are waiting for that one special day in September to remove Gillard….. If policy had anything to do with it Labor would be close to winning. But you not and Abbott the unelectable is just about to be PM.
Abbott will be one of the worst PMs in the history of mankind.
Mod Lib gasps in admiration…”Can’t believe what she appears to have done with Abbott.”
…”I can’t believe it’s not butter!!”……it wouldn’t melt in his mouth..?
joe and swamprat,
rummel is an intelligent instance of homo sapiens.
He is goading you for all he is worth with what he himself does not believe.
Which policies rummel?
East Timor/Community consensus/Malaysian rendition?
MMRT mark #1 or mark #2?
No carbon tax under a government I lead?
The media reforms?
The super reforms?
Pink batts?
Australia network tender?
The policy of having a surplus in 2013…”three years ahead of schedule” LOL 🙂
Relax peeps, after the liberal shemozzle today with their “we are repealing the PRRT oh no we wont or maybe we will” stupidity the pressure is gradually coming onto them.
They are hopeless with very silly policies and now that the MSM can’t bang on about leadershit they are already looking wobbly.
Patience young padawans…
waznaki – just don’t bite, mate.
[joe carli
Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 9:37 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib gasps in admiration…”Can’t believe what she appears to have done with Abbott.”]
If Abbott gets over 100 seats, he will expect a coronation with Pell presiding over the event.
Mod Lib grovels…”Prime Minister elect devious bastard thank you very much”.
Just goes to prove the old adage…: If wishes were horses beggars would write…sorry ;ride.
It’s fine dave, not biting, just verbalising what will ultimately be true. He’s a walking disaster with some serious mental problems.
[Mod Lib
Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 9:39 pm | PERMALINK
Which policies rummel?]
Regardless of how many bad ones Labor have, they do have them. The two out of three Lib policys that i know of quickly i disagree with.
Direct Action – Crap
NBN Lib – Crap
PPL – good
waznaki
[Abbott will be one of the worst PMs in the history of mankind.]
I agree, but I doubt Abbott will really run the show.
I mean, while supported now by Murdoch and other Big Money, he is just a tool.
They want to turn the Anglo-phone world back to the 18th century when we had more balanced (i.e. massive) wealth and power inequalities.
It has worked in the USofA.
It is working in Australia but not fast enough.
It is the aim of the IPA and, since Howard and the ultra-right took over the former Liberal Party, is that party’s goal.
One would think any mildly competent centre-right party like the ALP would win hands down but they do not seem to have one MP capable of articulation.
“If Abbott gets over 100 seats…” he’s already got them…undressed, powdered and ready to go!
ModLib
[East Timor/Community consensus/Malaysian rendition?
MMRT mark #1 or mark #2?
No carbon tax under a government I lead?
The media reforms?
The super reforms?
Pink batts?
Australia network tender?]
Despite your pretence at being a “model liberal”, your talking points are all just Menzies House (what an insult to Sir Robert!) political spin.
“He is goading you for all he is worth with what he himself does not believe.”
Hunters and hunted…it all depends on who is the best stalker!…..have to admit that Rummel is most used to holding the biggest weapon!
The thing is, when he is challenged he crumbles terribly, like when had that seizure over “shit happens”. His brain works very slowly when under mental pressure. He may have been a good boxer but he can’t think on his feet and his mental problems take over. He will be seriously questioned as PM and will embarrass us all for years to come.
swamprat:
Gillard has made mistake after mistake, year after year.
I get that some refuse to accept that and hence need to hide behind her gender or the media…..but it is her political judgement that is the primary problem here.
Well this week was a clear win for Labor.
Sensible super reforms, Abbott humiliating himself with the grovelling display at IPA along with a couple of train wreck presses, and the B-team of Robb and Cormann flooding social media with hysterical hyperbole and blatant lies.
Meanwhile Labor internal issues fading fast, JG with a spring in her step being Prime Ministerial on the foreign stage, and an impressive Shorten doing a tag team with Swannie – something we will be seeing more of. A good week all round.
Abbott will never be pm.
I’m still convinced there are enough sensible people in the country to prevent that happening.
A good day today for the govt. A few more and the very soft coalition lead will dissipate.
Remember in january polls were line ball and JG was preferred pm.
Mod Lib
[swamprat:
Gillard has made mistake after mistake, year after year.]
I agree.
I do not vote on political competence at all, at all.
I vote on policies I think are good for the country, in my estimation. If I voted on the personality of a politician, I would never vote.
I loath, doubt, despise all human institutions.
ducky
I think you need to educate some people about the term “fluffing”.
On the other hand, perhaps not. 👿
Fran
[Up to a certain threshhold, more money per student, (assuming expenditures are on well-conceived programs touching upon actual student needs) does improve academic outcomes. The further beneath that threshhold a given school is, the greater the positive difference each extra dollar per student makes.]
Unfortunately, it seems to take a huge amount of money to make even a small difference.
[MORE than $170 million in funding provided to disadvantaged South Australian schools to raise literacy and numeracy results has failed to substantially close the gap in achievement, data shows.
The money was provided to more than 200 schools under two of the Federal Government’s national education partnerships.
It was to increase the number of students reaching the national minimum standards in tests.
But an analysis shows the extra funds, which were pumped into targeted programs, helped create only a small improvement in NAPLAN results above that of all schools in the state.]
he wasn’t even a good boxer waznaki.
Just a wannabe thug from his uni days who hasn’t really progressed all that much since.
[sprocket_
Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 9:49 pm | PERMALINK
Well this week was a clear win for Labor.
Sensible super reforms]
What! Labor had half of Australia thinking they were going to have there Super stolen by Swan. What a way to win voters over.
Haha, well a good boxer Henry comparative to his other abilities which are seriously lacking.
[swamprat
Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 9:35 pm | Permalink
..
Do you think opposition to the right-wing political incompetents running the ALP means one is a Liberal Party supporter?
If that is what Big Labor Adults think, my case rests]
An adult realizes you can’t always have what you want, that sometimes the choices are not yours to choose. You have two choices, no less and no more. Gillard or Abbott. Gillard’s strength is she behaves like an adult and does the best with the hand she has. I dislike Labors asylum policy with a passion but I don’t see that as a reason to find out if Abbott’s is worse, and I definitely don’t see it as good reason to plunge the Australian Economy into a recession with dose of ill conceived austerity. Queensland is enough.
Yes you are behaving like a child, I want I want, looking no further than the lollies at the checkout.
BK 2132…re US poverty________
____________________
I have a son in the US with his family and we visit them from time to time
I recall my surprise in New York a while back at seeing an long queue in a street …and it was people waiting in line to get a re-issue of their”food stanmps”(in fact a credit card)… for unemployed and low income earners to enable them to buy basic food items…bread/potatoes.’/tinned meat and fish/etc
NO LUXURIES FOT THE POOR HOWEVER !!!
No chocolate/beer/fresh chicken or such like delights
US poverty hits one with a sense of shock….I recall many beggars in L A. and our discomfort at being asked for money outside a quite modest diner where we had eaten one night ..and not once but several times…and a woman on a train to Seattle who was going on to Canada where she had some entitlement to Health care as a former Canadian citizen now living in the US….but no health care in the USA
She told us she had breast cancer and could have no treatment in the USA
Yet Bush at al could spend !,7 trillion dollars on the Iraq War…and 1/2 a trllion each uear on the military
rummel
[What! Labor had half of Australia thinking they were going to have there Super stolen by Swan. What a way to win voters over.]
Why do Liberals believe what they read in the media?
Oh, of course, because its THEIR media.