BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Two more grim poll results send Labor further south in the latest weekly poll aggregate.

BludgerTrack finds Labor’s tailspin continuing as the trend catches up with the slump that has followed last fortnight’s leadership fiasco, with two new polls (both conducted despite the interruption of Easter) adding further fuel to the fire. Labor sheds a further 1.6% on the primary vote and 1.1% on two-party preferred, with the seat projection putting the Coalition shy of a century that would be achieved with the gain of just one independent seat.

The new poll results are from Essential Research and Morgan’s new multi-mode series, which supplements their much-maligned face-to-face polling with online surveying, and which I am now introducing to BludgerTrack for the first time. The results are being adjusted with bias measures obtained against the poll trend itself, so adding it will not introduce any bias to the model that isn’t there already. So far, the move looks to be producing results more typical of phone polling than the notoriously Labor-leaning face-to-face series. This year Morgan has published five face-to-face followed by five multi-mode polls, and the average deviations from the trend have been as follows:

Face-to-face: Labor +1.0%, Coalition -3.9%, Greens +0.7%.
Multi-mode: Labor -1.4%, Coalition -0.9%, Greens +1.5%.

The latter set of numbers are the ones I am currently using for the bias adjustment (I will recalculate this each week), and they’re very similar to those I’m using for Galaxy.

The other development in BludgerTrack is that Newspoll’s quarterly aggregate has been added to the state differentials calculation, which again puts Victoria’s anti-Labor swing ahead of New South Wales. One possibly unfortunate consequence of the new numbers being added is that any post-leadership crisis effect in Queensland is being further obscured by a result that was four-fifths derived from before the event.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 45 of 48
1 44 45 46 48
  1. Rummell

    People are getting sick of chicken little Abbott, and NewsLtd attempting to scare the pants of people by peddling blatant lies.

    Unlike what you Libs think, the Australian people are not stupid.

  2. frednk

    [Yes you are behaving like a child, I want I want, looking no further than the lollies at the checkout.]

    Sorry daddy, I will never criticise again!!!

    Like hell!!!

  3. [swamprat
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 9:53 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel

    [What! Labor had half of Australia thinking they were going to have there Super stolen by Swan. What a way to win voters over.

    Why do Liberals believe what they read in the media?]

    Look, your right. History tells us when Labor blusters around looking for cash it ends up folding at the first touch of heat from any opposition.

  4. [sprocket_
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 9:54 pm | PERMALINK
    Rummell

    People are getting sick of chicken little Abbott]

    If “people are getting sick of …Abbott” can you explain why Abbott’s net approval rating has gone from -36 to -11?

    A 25% improvement in satisfaction doesn’t support your thesis that people are getting sick of him. Quite the opposite…

  5. “…..but it is her political judgement that is the primary problem here.”
    Yet my short memory has Gillard GUTTING both Mesma and the LOTO in one reply in one day in The House at the end of last years sitting…SO…If “her” political judgement is a problem, what are we to make of the opp’ns bumbling, blundering, stumbling buffoonery!?
    Gillard, in any measure, will eviscerate Tabbott!

  6. Gillard has run a seriously competent government, with a media unwilling to give her credit for what this government has done

    The super change are the latest example. Deliberations leaked by the old white males, miss-information peddled by the media and no-one giving her credit doing things that need to be done You do not need more than 2 million dollars in super to make yourself pension independent.

  7. Yep clever super reforms which have made the libs and their boosters in the media looking very stupid.
    They are left to defend 16,000 of the super rich while their own policy is to slug 3.6m of the lower paid $500 per year.
    Ouch, that sort of stuff resonates.

  8. [Gillard, in any measure, will eviscerate Tabbott!]

    Any measure?

    TPP: Abbott is wiping the floor with Gillard 58 to 42
    Primary votes: Abbott is wiping the floor with Gillard 50% to 30%
    Preferred PM: Abbott is beating Gillard 43% to 35%
    Net satisfaction: Abbott is thrashing Gillard -11% vs. -39%
    Projected seats: Abbott is absolutely obliterating Gillard 100 seats + to less than 50 seats

    Any measure?

  9. ModLib

    Abbott’s net sat only improved due to Rudd’s last fart immolation. And Abbott is too stupid to be a small target, rather, coming out and proving what a divisive man he is.

  10. [davidwh
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:01 pm | PERMALINK
    Where is Maguire Bob? I miss his daily updates.]

    Bagdad got over run.

  11. joe carli@2207

    “…..but it is her political judgement that is the primary problem here.”
    Yet my short memory has Gillard GUTTING both Mesma and the LOTO in one reply in one day in The House at the end of last years sitting…SO…If “her” political judgement is a problem, what are we to make of the opp’ns bumbling, blundering, stumbling buffoonery!?
    Gillard, in any measure, will eviscerate Tabbott!

    Correct Joe.
    Until very recently Gillard had a substantial lead over Abbott as preferred pm.
    Abbotts ratings are very soft and it wont take much to bring it all crashing down around him.
    He is a flake.

  12. [Mod Lib
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    Any measure?]
    But it has been achieved by Credlin keeping him a box, the reality, the guy is barely articulate, and he is supposed to be PM material?

  13. jope carli

    [“…..but it is her political judgement that is the primary problem here.”
    Yet my short memory has Gillard GUTTING both Mesma and the LOTO in one reply in one day in The House at the end of last years sitting…SO…If “her” political judgement is a problem, what are we to make of the opp’ns bumbling, blundering, stumbling buffoonery!?
    Gillard, in any measure, will eviscerate Tabbott!]

    joe, her performance “in the House”, is pretty irrelevant when its outcomes are only circulated to the population if the media wants to.

    The ALP should be on the war-path confronting, challenging and having means to get their message out by-passing the MSM.

    It seems not only not to be able to do that but I think, hope I am wrong, it has no coherent, even short term ideological discipline.

    I mean how Crean can talk about a little move to equality as “class war”?

    It is totally beyond me.

    When I was a member in the 70’s we still had “the socialisation of the means of production, distribution and exchange” as a Party goal.

    Now we have Gillard, Swan, Fitzgibbon, Emerson… blah blah blah

  14. [Until very recently Gillard had a substantial lead over Abbott as preferred pm.]

    Care to list these “substantial leads over Abbott”?

    The last few have been:
    43-35 to Abbott
    42-38 to Gillard
    40-36 to Abbott
    41-39 to Gillard
    45-33 to Gillard

    You do realise that Preferred PM favours the incumbent PM, don’t you?

  15. [frednk
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:05 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    Any measure?

    But it has been achieved by Credlin keeping him a box, the reality, the guy is barely articulate, and he is supposed to be PM material?]

    Abbott is breaking the glass ceiling for joe blogs, proving that anyone can become PM.

  16. [swamprat
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:06 pm | Permalink
    ..
    Now we have Gillard, Swan, Fitzgibbon, Emerson… blah blah blah]

    Swamprat throwing a tantrum at the checkout again.

  17. [Baghdad got over run.]
    lol. Comment of the night.
    If this is a good week for the ALP, I would hate to see a bad week…. oh snap.
    I won’t be surprised to see the weekend polls drift out further.
    Gillard has the policy of taking control of the car going for the cliff and putting her foot down hard… on the accelerator.

    Mod Lib… When does the fellowship award me “Ent” Status?

  18. White Aryan Nation on the rise in US
    ____________________
    Prof Cole looks at the rise of neo-fascist militias in the US and asks are they involved with the murder of a “liberal” DA and wife in Texas and other in Colorado
    IS THIS THE START OF A MURDEROUS TREND BY RACE-HATE GROUPS LIKE ARYAN NATION …..and who is next ??

    \http://www.juancole.com/2013/04/congress-american-supremacists.html

  19. Todays super reforms are actually a deeply cynical exercise.

    The likelihood of them actually happening is very low – they require legislation, there is no time in the legislative timetable before the election. The changes announced in the budget last year have not made it to parliament yet.

    They do not affect defined benefit schemes – there would probably be a lot more than 16000 super recipients getting 100k + from a defined benefit scheme.

    The actual savings are very low – 900 mill over 4 years. This actually less than the mining tax would bring in over 4 years (based on the first 6 months).

    The coverage tonight is starting to turn against the changes – because they are too little. Another joke onthe australian people perpetuated by wayne swan.

  20. [rummel
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    Abbott is breaking the glass ceiling for joe blogs, proving that anyone can become PM.]

    Just get the right team behind you and shut your mouth. Can he be quite for 5 months.

  21. Race hate groups in the USA
    Aryan Nation in the rise__________and who killed the D.Ahttp://www.juancole.com/2013/04/congress-american-supremacists.html

  22. Mod Lib @2168

    I think this is the most crucial question of all, and yet everyone around here is gazing in all directions, happy to engage in a little policy brawl over here, rake over ancient Labor history there, get sidetracked on some irrelevant question abroad.

    But ask the burning question: How can Labor possibly, in its right mind, go to the election with the dead weight of Julia Gillard around its neck? No we can’t contemplate that. We’re all too upset about the leadership fiasco on March 21. It’s time to frown a lot and be stoical. Onwards and upwards! Surely the polls won’t get any worse!!

    But they do, and are quite likely to continue to do so.

    Bill Shorten? I don’t think so. An absolute wildcard like Tanya Plibersek? Could be a masterstroke. She’s a great communicator, telegenic (yes this has to be a consideration) and it neutralises any of this gender nonsense.

  23. [deblonay
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:08 pm | Permalink
    .

    \http://www.juancole.com/2013/04/congress-american-supremacists.html
    ]
    The USA is effectively a war zone, accept that and the place makes sense. Not a good place to visit though.

  24. [frednk
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:10 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    Abbott is breaking the glass ceiling for joe blogs, proving that anyone can become PM.

    Just get the right team behind you and shut your mouth. Can he be quite for 5 months.]

    We could get into a very strange situation where both leaders go on holiday for the full election campaign. Both improve in support while on holiday.

  25. Rummel

    [Abbott is breaking the glass ceiling for joe blogs, proving that anyone can become PM.]

    Poor Ben Chifley, only an elite train driver, never had the misfortune to be educated in a poor Jesuit School, suffer the disgrace of having to go to Oxford, to be have to live in the slums of the Sydney North Shore with a pitiable $700, 000 mortgage.

    You are right Rummell, in a Liberal way you are showing that a poor Joe Blogs can be PM.

  26. what rubbish BBseph.
    The reforms are a start and far fairer than the coalition’s silly response of slugging the lower paid with the removal of the super offset.
    Besides in time they will pull back $1 billion per year.
    I would rather take the endorsement of Keating if you don’t mind.

  27. [Are Ents good or bad?

    I have spots available in the Dwarf or Man categories….would either suit?]

    Ents are neutral like me… We just take a long time to say anything and only say things that are worth the time to say it. We hate the Orcs though and Gollum.
    However, the Ents would like to back a winner. Since I don’t like backing losers – I think I will have a conservative outlook for the next 7 years at least. Gillard has been gone since Grattan said so. 95% of the people here are in plain denial.

  28. [alias
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:12 pm | Permalink


    (yes this has to be a consideration) and it neutralises any of this gender nonsense.]

    Another little tantrum at the checkout, I think swamprat is making more noise, will have to start kicking to get noticed, go for the groceries that should do it.

  29. Blackburnseph

    [They do not affect defined benefit schemes – there would probably be a lot more than 16000 super recipients getting 100k + from a defined benefit scheme.
    ]

    These wild mistruths must be in the Liberal DNA. Must be the IPA koolaid.

  30. Wayne swan is actually a closet ruddite. Even his very act of getting up in the morning makes the gillard government look bad. He is making intolerable the politics around the govt so the demise of gillard is inevitable.

    Debate and discuss.

  31. [Henry
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:10 pm | PERMALINK
    You have just answered your own question mod lib.
    Well done!]

    Check out Andrew K on Insiders (probably this week, otherwise next) when he shows the long term trends in Preferred PM.

    If you think Gillard had a large lead over Abbott for any length of time you have blinkered vision writ large!
    🙂

  32. [Gillard has been gone since Grattan said so. 95% of the people here are in plain denial.]

    Harsh! i think 80% is more accurate

  33. Re super over 100.000 dollars pa
    ________________________
    I heard a “critic”on ABC saying ghat he had $2 million in his supoer and drew $100.000 per year..and owned a house”on the lower North Shore” whioch would be worth ??????

    \He said he regretted the Govt action and ” and I’m not rich ”
    can you belive them !

  34. Sprocket

    The words today were “labor will look into…” Payments under defined benefits. It is all very token.

  35. swamprat
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    [Rummel

    Abbott is breaking the glass ceiling for joe blogs, proving that anyone can become PM.

    You are right Rummell, in a Liberal way you are showing that a poor Joe Blogs can be PM.]

    Ben Chifley had brains, if he was born after Whitlam introduced Ausstudy he probable would have been educated.

  36. Mod Lib@2241

    Henry
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:10 pm | PERMALINK
    You have just answered your own question mod lib.
    Well done!


    Check out Andrew K on Insiders (probably this week, otherwise next) when he shows the long term trends in Preferred PM.

    If you think Gillard had a large lead over Abbott for any length of time you have blinkered vision writ large!

    Still can’t disprove my point?
    he he. 😉

  37. [blackburnpseph
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:18 pm | PERMALINK
    Rummel @ 2237

    Is there anyone in labor today who has even caught a train?]

    lol

Comments Page 45 of 48
1 44 45 46 48

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *