BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Two more grim poll results send Labor further south in the latest weekly poll aggregate.

BludgerTrack finds Labor’s tailspin continuing as the trend catches up with the slump that has followed last fortnight’s leadership fiasco, with two new polls (both conducted despite the interruption of Easter) adding further fuel to the fire. Labor sheds a further 1.6% on the primary vote and 1.1% on two-party preferred, with the seat projection putting the Coalition shy of a century that would be achieved with the gain of just one independent seat.

The new poll results are from Essential Research and Morgan’s new multi-mode series, which supplements their much-maligned face-to-face polling with online surveying, and which I am now introducing to BludgerTrack for the first time. The results are being adjusted with bias measures obtained against the poll trend itself, so adding it will not introduce any bias to the model that isn’t there already. So far, the move looks to be producing results more typical of phone polling than the notoriously Labor-leaning face-to-face series. This year Morgan has published five face-to-face followed by five multi-mode polls, and the average deviations from the trend have been as follows:

Face-to-face: Labor +1.0%, Coalition -3.9%, Greens +0.7%.
Multi-mode: Labor -1.4%, Coalition -0.9%, Greens +1.5%.

The latter set of numbers are the ones I am currently using for the bias adjustment (I will recalculate this each week), and they’re very similar to those I’m using for Galaxy.

The other development in BludgerTrack is that Newspoll’s quarterly aggregate has been added to the state differentials calculation, which again puts Victoria’s anti-Labor swing ahead of New South Wales. One possibly unfortunate consequence of the new numbers being added is that any post-leadership crisis effect in Queensland is being further obscured by a result that was four-fifths derived from before the event.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  1. ModLib and Rummel love ferocious, and of course a world when everyone going to Oxford is a “joe blog”.

    Maybe Abbott should have a policy where ALL joe blogs have the right to go to Oxford?

  4. Hainan China
    ______________
    The PM and her delegation are in Hainan …descibed as China’s Hawaii…a lovely island between Hong Kong and Vietnam…and an amazing place of beaches and resorts and mountains that has grown rapidly as a major resort and holiday area
    About half the size of Tasmania it has the climate of Cairns
    and a vast domestic tourist industry

    http://www.travelchinaguide.com/cityguides/hainan/

  5. Sounds perfect!

    Julia Gillard should take a three month holiday there. It’s about the only way the polls will head north for Labor.

  6. 2356

    I think today will cause the polls to head up for the ALP. The Super announcement went well and has largely put that issue to bed. Abbott has put his foot in his mouth, with National Party and other road ideologues` help, on urban rail funding (the lack thereof if he becomes PM).

    When are the next polls?

  8. [2356
    Tom the first and best

    I think today will cause the polls to head up for the ALP. The Super announcement went well and has largely put that issue to bed.]

    Ya think?

    Now we not only have Kevin Rudd pretending to be the ghost of PM, we have had Simon Crean pretending to be relevant too. Crean seems to think he is a contender. And just as Rudd has caused nothing but trouble, so will Crean.

  9. [2356
    Tom the first and best

    Abbott has put his foot in his mouth, with National Party and other road ideologues` help, on urban rail funding (the lack thereof if he becomes PM.)]

    We will see. The theme from the LNP is the deficit will be reduced. Fiscal “prudence” is making a come back.

  11. 2358

    Crean has stopped causing trouble over super. He said, in his media conference, that he is happy with the changes. It has not solved the Rudd issue but it has died down for the moment. The polls will go up.

  12. Tom the first and best@2356

    When are the next polls?

    In the normal scheme of things I’d expect Essential mid-Monday, Newspoll late Monday night, Morgan Tuesday afternoon/evening, Nielsen maybe the week after and Galaxy whenever it feels like it.

    I don’t have any inside knowledge on intentions for any of these.

  13. 2359

    PT is a real issue. Urban rail needs money in quantities only the Commonwealth can provide.

    Abbott, quite possibly trying to seem more female friendly with a knitting reference, essentially promised more road congestion in cities (and lied/spoke ignorantly about Commonwealth funding for urban rail, it has been funded under Whitlam, Fraser (who cancelled it half way through his term), Keating, Rudd and Gillard).

  15. [2361
    Tom the first and best

    Crean has stopped causing trouble over super. He said, in his media conference, that he is happy with the changes.]

    He used the issue to attract attention to himself in a misguided attempt to cultivate a public audience, just as KR has been doing ever since 2010. He has merely stirred pointless speculation. Tonight he had the gall to rate himself as “a contributor”. Two weeks ago he proposed himself as a “third” candidate – an alternative to R or G – and still obviously thinks he should be considered. What a flea!!

  16. Jeez some of you guys live in a bubble, don’t you?

    Anyone who thinks this super thing is anything but poison for the ALP is out of their mind. It’s about the most transparent cash-grab by a desperately incompetent government, scrambling to plug holes in their hopelessly overblown budget, that you could ever hope NOT to see.

  17. Yes, I can’t wait for next week’s polls. I can already write the script for you.

    1. Polls come back, some of which show slight improvements for the government because the most recent ones have been so bad that, surely, the ALP vote has bottomed-out and any deviation or MOO, you’d think, would be in a favourable direction.

    2. ALP diehards here, despite regularly telling us how the polls are wrong/mean nothing, will proclaim it as the start of the latest “big Gillard comeback”.

    3. Everyone continues the march into the ALP meatgrinder that looms in September.

    I doubt I’m the only conservative-leaning Australian who actually hopes the polls improve slightly for Gillard. Last thing we want is for her to be replaced with someone electable.

  23. http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/in-canberra-as-it-is-in-rome-here-come-the-jesuits-20130405-2hc2j.html

    Unique among Catholic religious orders, Jesuits take a fourth vow. While they all promise poverty, chastity and obedience, only Jesuits pledge obedience to the Pope.

    “Abbott’s Coalition ministry is shaping as a kind of Jesuit jamboree.”
    READ MORE

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/in-canberra-as-it-is-in-rome-here-come-the-jesuits-20130405-2hc2j.html#ixzz2PedbbpR9

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