BludgerTrack finds Labor’s tailspin continuing as the trend catches up with the slump that has followed last fortnight’s leadership fiasco, with two new polls (both conducted despite the interruption of Easter) adding further fuel to the fire. Labor sheds a further 1.6% on the primary vote and 1.1% on two-party preferred, with the seat projection putting the Coalition shy of a century that would be achieved with the gain of just one independent seat.
The new poll results are from Essential Research and Morgan’s new multi-mode series, which supplements their much-maligned face-to-face polling with online surveying, and which I am now introducing to BludgerTrack for the first time. The results are being adjusted with bias measures obtained against the poll trend itself, so adding it will not introduce any bias to the model that isn’t there already. So far, the move looks to be producing results more typical of phone polling than the notoriously Labor-leaning face-to-face series. This year Morgan has published five face-to-face followed by five multi-mode polls, and the average deviations from the trend have been as follows:
Face-to-face: Labor +1.0%, Coalition -3.9%, Greens +0.7%.
Multi-mode: Labor -1.4%, Coalition -0.9%, Greens +1.5%.
The latter set of numbers are the ones I am currently using for the bias adjustment (I will recalculate this each week), and they’re very similar to those I’m using for Galaxy.
The other development in BludgerTrack is that Newspoll’s quarterly aggregate has been added to the state differentials calculation, which again puts Victoria’s anti-Labor swing ahead of New South Wales. One possibly unfortunate consequence of the new numbers being added is that any post-leadership crisis effect in Queensland is being further obscured by a result that was four-fifths derived from before the event.
Please don’t interfere Wal….these engagements are what gets me off to sleep laughing most nights I am here.
…get your own troll to play with!
[Australia sorely needs a Party to represent its bottom 60%.]
Bums and bottoms are synonymous. If you don’t like the stink – work hard and move up.
Mod Lib@2298
Yeah nah. I know. 😉
Well, you seem to know a lot Henry…
wal kolla@2297
Now wally, I’m like a cat with a mouse here…
Wal Kolla
What’s the deal with trolling our State Schools? They have produced outstanding people like Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan.
Private schools can produce twerps like Tony Abbott and Christopher Pyne.
D you want your kids to be twerps?
frednk
I have a nephew who married an US American and lives there. I am too scared to visit, hehe.
Never had any attraction and pretty scared of that place.
I have met many polite US Americans but when you press them their ideas about the world are a bit weird.
Mod Lib@2304
Thank you, any advice you may need, well I’m here to help mk?
[Now wally, I’m like a cat with a mouse here…]
Are you the cat, or are you the mouse?
Only one way to find out.
Wal Kolla throws a segment of cheese on the ground
Of mice and men 😉
Diog
and not all of them need that level of intervention.
But my main point is that you can’t dismiss an educational initiative as ‘wasted’ or not on the basis of NAPLAN results, or (necessarily) in the short term.
I once taught a boy to read when he was fifteen, for example. But, educationally, that was too late – all those years without reading meant that he would have had to basically go back and repeat several years of education to draw level with his peers.
So, if you were to use academic results as your only measure, the money and resources (my time, mainly, which the Education Department was paying for) were ‘wasted’.
The fact that being able to read has made him a much more productive member of society (as I can attest, having kept in touch with him for the last twenty years), however, means that it wasn’t.
[well I’m here to help mk]
…is that last word “muck”?
[Wal Kolla throws a segment of cheese on the ground]
HAHA GOTCHA!
I am lactose intolerant so it cant be me, it must be Henry!
Haha 🙂
[What’s the deal with trolling our State Schools? They have produced outstanding people like Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan.]
Bwahahaha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha haha!
‘Tis a gift for the foes of Mordor!
Sorry, that is Not a glowing endorsement of public school. But seriously, name me some real Australian Achievers from public schools?
Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest on Lateline supporting PMJG
wal kolla@2309
Oh stop it wally, you’re killin me…
Sprocket
Where do those labor politicians like bill shorten, craig emerson, tony burke, nicola roxon who wnt to private schools – fine products or twerps?
z
I’m definitely not saying it’s wasted or shouldn’t happen and I agree the long term is what we are looking at.
I’m more pointing out that some problems are pretty intractable and we shouldn’t be expecting that putting money in is going to provide great results as it’s more complex than that.
It’s like indigenous health. You can put a huge amount of effort in with very little to show for it.
Certainly doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try though.
[Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest on Lateline supporting PMJG]
Pinko commy bastard!
wal kolla
[Bums and bottoms are synonymous. If you don’t like the stink – work hard and move up.]
Hehehe .. This is a political announcement from Dear Leader Rupert who inherited nothing and worked himself from being an arse-wiper for workers on a pig farm to owning the WORLD.
Imagine if everyone was super-rich awl kola? Who would you have to look down on?
And also, why do you think a person only has value if they “work up”?
Is that the reason for existence?
Do super rich people get a better heaven because they are rich?
[Thomas. Paine.
Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:27 pm | Permalink
Simon Crean’s last leak was fun to watch. Made a fool of himself didn’t he.
On the contrary he and the others did some good as he undoubtedly got Gillard/Swan etc to make some quick changes to their policy to halt the vote destruction storm.]
And here arrives Thomas. Pain, offering nothing but speculating in the worse possible way.
You have swamprat at checkout 1 throwing a trantrum and briefy at checkout 2 and now we have Paine being a pain at checkout 3. The din is too much, time to leave.
Twiggy borrow Humphrey B Bear’s tie tonight??
Wk
[Sorry, that is Not a glowing endorsement of public school. But seriously, name me some real Australian Achievers from public schools?]
Um, John Howard? Paul Keating?
wal kola
I actually think rich people “stink” more than poor people.
My experience, obviously not yours..
Wal kolla @ 2313
Your question is singularly offensive.
sprocket:
[Which is why from a participant’s point of view, {defined benefits schemes are} the rolled gold standard.]
Solid gold I’d say.
Twiggy makes a lot of noise but doesn’t really say all that much. What a waffler.
Twiggy is out of his depth. Doesn’t want to talk about Tone.
Go for the heart, Emma!
[Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest on Lateline supporting PMJG]
Is she planning to use PMJG in his new dinosaur venture?
Children, here we have the red-headed dinosaur which became extinct on September 14th, 2013. She was dumb narcissist who was hunted to extinction by the Homo Neanderthalus Wing-nutus enspeedous
Henry
Yes he is trying not to say too much as his words in support of the delegation is endorsement of the Government and he wants to do that as little as possible.
If you look at our Nobel Prize winners, about half went to public schools.
John Howard went to a public school?
EEEeeeeewwwwww….I’m off him then :devil:
Bbs
I’m not saying ALL private schools produce nothing but twerps, and you do point out some exceptions. It just seems that I you come across a twerp, ask them where they went to school – you will be surprised.
Sprocket @ 2322
Paul keating went to de la salle bankstown. However, you could replace him with either or both o f julia gillard and kevin rudd. Being pm has to be recognised as a high achievement – whatever your view o f the person concerned in the immediate term , he office commands respect.
2325
Platinum by Australian standards. Getting less and less common in Australia. Quite common in many other developed nations though.
Sprocket @ 2332
Asking a person where they went to school shows defInite signs of twerpdom.
blackburnpseph
NAPLAN has its place, and needs to be considered in context (hence MySchool, which lets you do that).
It’s a guide, designed to measure some really specific things, and shouldn’t be taken to indicate more than that.
For example, my youngest son scores highly on it for reading, consistently way ahead of his peers. But he has never read a book from cover to cover.
The test measures his ability to understand what he’s read, which is different to measuring whether or not he’s ‘a reader’.
Context is also important when comparing results across states – for example, when NAPLAN was initially introduced, Victorian primary students scored lower in Maths then their contemporaries elsewhere, but this was reversed by the time the same cohort reached secondary school.
The kids hadn’t got brighter, or better at maths – they had simply covered some aspects of the maths curriculum later than their counterparts interstate.
So I’d say NAPLAN is useful as a measurement but like all measurements its limitations needs to be understood.
bbp 🙂
Mod Lib challengers…”Any measure?”
Yes…ANY measure!…There may be a hunger amongst the Libs for a win..a ferocious hunger perhaps. But with every hunger unsatiated there is a hollowness inside…and THAT hollow hunger is the knowledge that your LOTO, your “man” is an empty shell..an empty shell being pumped up by endless, unlimited media profiling…The Credlins, the Ginas, the Murdochs, the Pells….all like yourselves, hungry for their “man” to take the prize…but THEY know, like YOU know..like WE know, the “man” has no depth of character, so he must be sold on a platform of total opposition to what is the PM. now, and to do that the govt’, the parliament, the principles of proceedure even loyality to the nation, must be trashed….the dirtiest business of it all is the silence of those who would “ride to glory” vicariously on the coat-tails of such a poltroon.
There is a saying that a “barman is a drunks labourer”, what can be said then of the “labourers” for the hunger for power of a foreign national?
No suffering on the common persons pension for our solid gold marxist fran.
ModLib
John Howard went to Canterbury Boys High, which was well regarded in the NSW state system. in fact little Johnny got to go on Bob Dyers Pick-a-box when a student there.
frednk
[You have swamprat at checkout 1 throwing a trantrum and briefy at checkout 2]
Is this the view of the SDA Union?
joe carli:
Abbott could lose….and then you will be proven completely right.
Abbott could win….and then you will be proven completely wrong.
Feel free to bookmark, and lets return to this conversation at 10pm on Sep 14th, yeah? 😉
Tom @ 2334
Which is why some other western countries are going bankrupt fast
I was laughing at Wayne Swan actually.. anyway.
Diog
Well, we’re pretty much on the same page…
[I’m more pointing out that some problems are pretty intractable and we shouldn’t be expecting that putting money in is going to provide great results as it’s more complex than that.]
‘Putting money in’ means providing children with the resources they need – in the example I gave, it meant giving me time I could spend working with students one on one.
I don’t know whether teaching someone who couldn’t read to read was ‘a great result’ but it sure felt like it!
Of course, as with all these things, money can be poorly spent – and I did have the agony a few years ago of trying to implement a program using a teacher who I knew was totally incapable of performing the task. Supremely frustrating.
[sprocket_
Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:59 pm | PERMALINK
ModLib
John Howard went to Canterbury Boys High]
Yes, I did know that, I was just making fun of the idea that you can or should judge someone on where they went to school.
Heck, I wouldn’t even judge someone on how WELL they did at school!
There is a lot more to an individual than their school, or their HSC score.
joe carli
[….There may be a hunger amongst the Libs for a win..a ferocious hunger perhaps…]
Maybe that is the difference between the parties the ALP has reasonable policies but little hunger to win; the LNP has no policies but a ferocious hunger to win!!
…like being quoted in Hansard
Here is evidence of JWH school days
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/gallery/gallery-e6frewxi-1111119761641?page=3
@Reuters: Pope Francis wants Church to “act decisively” against sex abuse http://t.co/g9e2kleDUm
Australia the test case for new Pope’s authority and influence.