Tomorrow’s Australian will bring Newspoll’s quarterly aggregate of its polling from January to March, with breakdowns by state, age and metropolitan/country. GhostWhoVotes has thus far provided us with the national aggregates plus two-party results for each state, which suggest the swing against Labor has been spread fairly evenly:
Two Party Preferred: ALP 46 (-2) L/NP 54 (+2)
Primary Votes: ALP 33 (-2) L/NP 46 (+3) GRN 10 (-1)
Gillard: Approve 32 (-5) Disapprove 56 (+5)
Abbott: Approve 34 (+4) Disapprove 55 (-4)
Preferred PM: Gillard 40 (-5) Abbott 39 (+6)
Federal 2PP in NSW: ALP 46 (-2) L/NP 54 (+2)
Federal 2PP in VIC: ALP 51 (-3) L/NP 49 (+3)
Federal 2PP in QLD: ALP 41 (-1) L/NP 59 (+1)
Federal 2PP in WA: ALP 43 (-2) L/NP 57 (+2)
Federal 2PP in SA: ALP 49 (-1) L/NP 51 (+1)
More to follow.
UPDATE: Full tables here.
UPDATE 2 (2/4/2013): Essential Research has Labor dropping two points on the primary vote for the second week in a row, and this time it’s taken two-party preferred with it, the Coalition’s lead blowing out from 54-46 to 56-44. The Coalition is up two to 49% with the Greens steady on 11%. Also covered are the attributes of the major parties and leaders, with Labor’s and Julia Gillard’s ratings bad and getting worse across the board, most notably with a nine point increase to 82% in the number thinking Labor “divided”, while the Liberal Party records much the same results as a year ago, but with divided down five to 32%. Readers may be shocked to learn that more think Julia Gillard “aggressive”: (up nine to 55%) than Tony Abbott (down six to 49%). Enthusiasm for an early election has increased, with an eight-point increase since the end of January to 43% and a four-point drop in those thinking the government should run a full term to 47%. There’s also some interesting material on social class and where the parties fit in.
UPDATE 3 (2/4/2013): The fifth Morgan multi-mode poll offers more evidence that Labor’s position has further deteriorated in the wake of last fortnight’s abortive leadership ructions, with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 30%, the Coalition up 2.5% to and the Greens up half a point to 11%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is out from 57-43 to 59-41 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 56-44 to 57.5-42.5 on previous election preferences.
DTT 448,
That was my point, since 2012 he hasn’t moved. And if you’re right, it just makes Fitzgibbon sound even more shifty.
Oh, and I’m actually seeing the Prime Minister on the 17th (assuming everything goes to plan). We’ll see who the adults in the room are.
Lacoon,
I believe she already is in China, that’s what the Age reports. Strategic dialogue. I’m surprised we haven’t heard anything yet.
[He’s right on gay marriage for sure. But as I said all indications are his AS policy would be indistinguishable from Morrison’s.]
His or his Party’s?
A benign dictatorship with Turnbull is what Australia needs. Even if he became PM, it might be hard given the fact that he would be outnumbered by the radical right. However, in a landslide of new seats, who knows what the Lib political spectrum would look like. I would imaging Liberals winning safe ALP seats couldn’t be that right wing….
A war on the Korean Peninsula would last about ten minutes as most of the missiles North Korea deployed would land in their on country.
[The relevance of a possible war in Korea is the same as the relevance of 911 to Howard]
Only for warmongers. Those of us who oppose war find yours and daretread’s commentary on this issue deeply disturbing.
Bugler,
I qualified the speculation by saying “God forbid that such awfulness would occur” and that I would hypothetically accept Barnaby Joyce as PM if that meant no war.
However, this is a blog dealing with speculation over election outcomes, and as I noted above in a reply to Confession, 911 helped John Howard quite significantly.
That doesn’t mean anyone would supported Howard was remotely pleased about the dreadful attacks on Washington and New York, it is just a plain fact of cause and effect – Howard got a lift as he was able to appear statesmanlike at a time of crisis.
I repeat, God forbid that such a war would erupt, but if it did, I could see it helping Gillard.
It’s a pretty moot point really. There will be no war on the Korean Peninsula so long as the US and SK continue to bend over backwards to be nice to the North Koreans.
I see no real shift in policy from any of the major players involved. Ridiculous threats about nuclear holocaust are par for the course and have been for decades now.
Tom the first and best
Yes and Super is designed to take them out of the pension therefore less taxation the better.
Means testing the pension is a fair idea but a house only produces money when sold.
Just because you have an expensive house on paper does not make one rich.
I recall the then opposition totally opposing the need to sell a house to fund a nursing home bed.
Multiple, co-ordinated airstrikes on North Korea should sort out most of the threatening missile launch depots.
For crying out loud Confessions, how does speculating and commenting on current world events, and the way events might unfold in the months ahead, make a person a warmonger?
Mod Lib
“A benign dictatorship with Turnbull is what Australia needs.”
I actually share your views on the multitude of deficits in Australian democracy, we just disagree on the gender and hair color of our ideal dictator.;)
That said its not going to happen and you know as well as I do the right faction’s influence in the Liberals isn’t exactly waning. Turnbull is an utter anachronism within his party and he knows it. You do too.
So why vote Liberal if you’re moderate knowing what it will inevitably lead to?
I think Fessy may have missed the reports of the North Koreans saying that they were in a state of war.
I think there is an element of gamesmanship going on for the young leader does need to build creditability with his army.
alias,
Diogenes at 753 is probably right. Hence no boost for Labor. I don’t see the North getting support from anyone, not China, not Russia.
I get a bit edgy when people hypothesise about wars and their impact on domestic politics. Humanity comes before popularity contests.
[alias
Posted Tuesday, April 2, 2013 at 9:17 pm | PERMALINK
For crying out loud Confessions, how does speculating and commenting on current world events, and the way events might unfold in the months ahead, make a person a warmonger?]
the same as discussing anything short of Gilliard worshiping gets you accused of being a troll
GP
Malcolm Turnbull has experience of being successful at both law and banking, i can’t see how Tone is a better leader than Turnbull.
757
Reverse mortgages are about realising that value. As is downsizing.
The Coalition opposing something is an indicator that an idea should be considered.
The posters salivating at todays poling being replicated on Sept 14 are very poor judges of characther. Australians have far more sense.
Generic Person
“Multiple, co-ordinated airstrikes on North Korea should sort out most of the threatening missile launch depots.”
I want to believe this but I can’t. War with NK isn’t worth losing Seoul.
mexicanbeemer,
[I think Fessy may have missed the reports of the North Koreans saying that they were in a state of war.]
Which time in the past half a century?
alias:
Warmongers salivate at the prospect of war and what it might mean to X or Y scenario. Go back and read your own comments today about the matter.
Worse however, is that you’ve now unwittingly scared the bejesus out of the galactically naive daretoread, who is as we speak marshalling fantasy troop leaders to handle this non-existent offensive Australia doesn’t find itself confronting.
I say again: calm down.
And who pays the mortgage.
Why after paying a house off would you want to repay it off.
hair brain stuff.
No 764
That sentence would make sense except for the fact that we have actual evidence of Turnbull’s leadership style in 2008-2009 and it was a disaster, he nearly destroyed the party because of flapping climate change. And then there was the whole Grech thing.
Rossmore
“Australians have far more sense.”
They really don’t. Accept this and things start making sense.
rummel,
[the same as discussing anything short of Gilliard worshiping gets you accused of being a troll]
I think concern over considering what can be gained domestically from foreign wars goes far deeper than that. I think there are limits to what you can say speculation is tasteful.
Bugler
The recent one but as we know the North Koreans are mostly likely looking for some attention or aid or both
No 765
Strangely, we agree on the issue of reverse mortgages. I see no reason why they can’t be used to fund pensions or nursing home beds. It would incentivise people to plan better, nothing is free.
mexicanb:
If and when Australia declares itself to be at war with North Korea then we can get energised about what Australia’s response or capability might represent, or what it might mean in an election year.
Seriously, people here need to chill out.
[A benign dictatorship with Turnbull is what Australia needs.]
Pretty sure Mod doesn’t mean that. Turnbull himself would find it an odd thing to say.
GP @716
the government believes you keeping your own money is a cost to the budget and thinks he’s entitled to raid your savings.
You are a conservative and therefore no matter how ‘dry’ you might be, you probably believe that the government should be spending large sums for defence, in fact you probably believe that defence spending should be increased (although I am guessing here, you might be a pacifist). That is paid for by taxation, so you must believe in taxation.
If someone on $60,000 per annum earns an extra dollar, they pay 32.5% of it in tax before they pay for food, power, school uniforms, family holiday, whatever. Such a taxpayer cannot put a lot of their own money into super. What I am saying is that someone earning many times that amount who can utilise ‘tax planning’, including rorts like ‘transition to retirement’, should not be able to escape paying their share.
Even the ‘fabulously wealthy’ at least believe that we need defence, but they want someone else to pay for it. They are happy for employees’ pay packets to be ‘raided’ to pay for defence, support for private schools or whatever else they might approve of.
mexicanbeemer,
I know 😛 . I don’t think it’s much of a secret the North doesn’t have the capability or support to do half the things they threaten.
GP
Yes Turnbull was gullible for falling for Grench.
But if we look at the CV’s of Tone and Turnbull, Turnbull’s on paper is the more impressive.
Yes i will acknowledge that Tone was one of Howard’s better performing ministers.
770
The reverse mortgage is an established financial product.
It is where a financial provider agrees to pay a homeowner a certain, indexed, amount every so often in exchange for said financial institution getting the home when they die/move to a nursing home.
In France they have a similar, less sensible, system except that instead of a financial provider making the payments, it is a prospective home buyer.
Just took a peek at another blog noted for being even more delusional than PB.
My, the poor dears are taking it hard as reality at last seems to be penetrating. Labor is in diabolical strife and needs to do something dramatic and effective to be back in the race.
[That said its not going to happen and you know as well as I do the right faction’s influence in the Liberals isn’t exactly waning. Turnbull is an utter anachronism within his party and he knows it. You do too.]
If Gillard surges in the polls I think Abbott would be dumped in a heartbeat. He has been around longer than most, has high negatives, and there is nothing like self-interest to drive a backbench Liberal to swap over to someone else (two of the top contenders would be Hockey and Turnbull, so a moderate takeover is not out of the question).
Is a Gillard surge likely? Almost impossible, I would have thought. So I admit it is not likely Turnbull takes over before Sep. However, assuming Abbott governs as badly as you are all certain he will, then a takeover in a year or two is not out of the question.
[So why vote Liberal if you’re moderate knowing what it will inevitably lead to?]
Why the fascination with how I intend to vote?
I am not even certain myself, but I will say this, as I have said for years now. The current choice before me is the worst in my memory.
Absolutetwaddle i have more faith in our democracy …. But It will be closer than all the experts predict…
GP 775
I can see some merit in using the family home to fund a nursing home bed but i think a reverse mortgage for retirement just creates debt with no certainty that the person will live long enough to pay it back.
Yes the bank will have the property but by default are you not increasing the banks exposure to debt when the banks don’t normally like to offer large loans to people over a certain age.
bemused,
[Labor is in diabolical strife and needs to do something dramatic and effective to be back in the race.]
Govern, preferably.
Tom F&B
Yes i am aware that reverse mortgages are a financial product but i question the suitability for funding retirement
Hi Bemused … Still pining for Ruddstoration I see. That parrot has well and truly joined the choir invisible. Give it up please comrade….
confessions,
[If and when Australia declares itself to be at war with North Korea then we can get energised about what Australia’s response or capability might represent, or what it might mean in an election year.
Seriously, people here need to chill out.]
I kind of agree, though I don’t think it’s in any way healthy to think about a war’s effect on election outcomes in countries it doesn’t directly relate to.
I have the impression that eventually China is going to withdraw support from Korea, either due to economic reasons or pressure from its allies and trading partners.
*North Korea
Rossmore:
Did you not hear the insider news alias had for us earlier?
Apparently Rudd had his fingers crossed when he said he would never lead the ALP again.
Mod Lib I think Ms Gillard may surprise you in the coming months. But I suspect the far right of the Libs have too much hate and now power to pick him over Abbott
[I want to believe this but I can’t. War with NK isn’t worth losing Seoul.]
Agree, Seoul is in range artillery………… i think the North can land 45,000 shells on Seoul in the first hour of War.
[Just took a peek at another blog noted for being even more delusional than PB.]
Piers and Bolt have always been off the stratosphere delusional.
Who cares how their commenters choose to spend their time.
Fessy
I suspect the North Koreans are just puffing their chest for a bit of attention with a young leader that needs to show that he is strong. I’m not overly concerned
Him being Turnbull of course…
No 778
That all sounds good except you once again forget to leave out the fact that the top income earners pay more than 65% of the income tax burden, so they already pay more than their ‘fair’ share.
It’s not an argument about whether the idea of taxation is a good or a bad thing, I’m simply contesting the notion that the treasury and the government characterises the idea of letting people keep their own money as a ‘cost’ when it isn’t the government’s money. I utterly reject any suggestion or argument that seeks to characterise our property as that of the government’s to raid when it chooses.
The issue for this terrible government is that it can’t control its out of control spending. That’s the bottom line.
When it should be controlling spending it decides to spend billions on a disability scheme we can’t yet afford and the Gonski package that will simply prop up the already generously remunerated education sector that isn’t producing results despite massive increases in funding over the last decade.
Having created this quagmire for itself, it determines that your super money isn’t yours and is in fact given to you out of the goodness of the government’s heart and now they want it back. What? Utter nonsense.
Mod Lib@791
It’s OK, just that Rossmore wants to be the last person still supporting Julia Gillard.
Mod Lib
[then a takeover in a year or two is not out of the question.]
If Abbott wins this has nil chance of happening – they’ll be too scared off the ‘Kev-07’ effect.
Just wishful thinking on your behalf – if the Libs get in with Abbott it will be a ride to the death with him.
Mod Lib
“However, assuming Abbott governs as badly as you are all certain he will, then a takeover in a year or two is not out of the question.”
Actually I am quite certain that Abbott will lead a stable and popular Coalition government for at the very least one full term.
What do you think?