Seat of the week: Richmond

Coastal development has transformed the one-time National/Country Party stronghold of Richmond over the last few decades, with present Labor incumbent Justine Elliot building up a solid margin since unseating Larry Anthony in 2004.

Richmond has covered the north-eastern corner of New South Wales since federation, shrinking steadily over time due to ongoing coastal development (which among other things has cost it the river that gives it its name). It currently extends from Tweed Heads on the border as far south as Lennox Head just to the north of Ballina, extending inland to the western boundaries of the Tweed and Lismore municipalities (although Lismore itself is located beyond the southern boundary in Page). Once a jewel in the National/Country Party crown, its electoral complexion changed as it became increasingly dominated by Byron Bay and Tweed Heads. The area’s counter-cultural tendency is reflected by pockets of support for the Greens, including four of the party’s five strongest booths nationally at the 2010 election (Wilsons Creek, Goonengerry, Nimbin and Main Arm Upper, with Rosebank and The Channon not far behind), with their total vote across the electorate at 16.2%.

Richmond was first won for the Country Party by Roland Green shortly after the party’s creation in 1922, and has spent much of its history as a fiefdom of the Anthony dynasty. It was held from 1937 to 1957 by Larry Anthony, from 1957 to 1984 by Larry’s son Doug, who was party leader from 1971 to 1984, and from 1996 to 2004 by Doug’s son Larry. Doug Anthony’s immediate successor was another party leader in Charles Blunt, who emerged a shock loser at the 1990 election when the independent candidacy of anti-nuclear activist Helen Caldicott drew a rash of new enrolments from Nimbin-area types. When Caldicott fell just short of overhauling the Labor candidate, her preferences fuelled a 7.1% swing to Labor and a victory for their candidate Neville Newell. Larry Anthony failed to recover the seat for the Nationals on his first attempt in 1993, before romping home on the back of an 8.5% swing in 1996. A 6.0% swing in 1998 brought Anthony back down to the wire, and he again survived only narrowly in 2001.

Labor finally snared the seat in 2004, when a 1.9% swing enabled their candidate Justine Elliot to scrape over the line by 301 votes. Elliot went on to serve in the junior ministerial porfolio of ageing in the government’s first term, but was bumped down after the 2010 election to parliamentary secretary for trade, which both she and the Prime Minister insisted was at her own request. She retained the position despite publicly supporting Kevin Rudd’s leadership bid in February 2012, but eventually moved to the back bench in the reshuffle that followed the departures of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans in February 2013. Elliot again maintained the move was made on her own initiative, as she believed her campaigining against the locally sensitive issue of coal seam gas mining conflicted with her responsibilities in the trade portfolio.

The preselected Nationals candidate for the coming election is Matthew Fraser, 34-year-old owner of two local Hungry Jacks franchises. Fraser won preselection ahead of university lecturer Scott Cooper, newsagency owner John McMahon and the candidate from 2010, Myocum beef farmer Alan Hunter. The Liberals have agreed not to field a candidate under the terms of the state parties’ coalition agreement, despite having been only slightly outpolled by the Nationals in 2010 – by 21.2% to 19.1% on the primary vote and 25.3% to 20.8% at the second last preference exclusion. Their candidate from 2010, former Tweed mayor Joan van Lieshout, quit the party in September 2012 and said she was considering running as an independent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,837 comments on “Seat of the week: Richmond”

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  1. [frednk
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 10:10 pm | PERMALINK
    When a terrorist goes to heaven where do the 70 virgins come from? Is a virgins hell a terrorists heaven?

    These are the questions that should be asked as the sky fairies are paraded across our screens.]

    From what MOD LIB told us earlier the 70 virgins is MOD LIB X 70 :devil:

  2. [frednk
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 10:06 pm | PERMALINK
    Which religion the most child molesting clergy.]

    The Buddhist answer could be none. As the instant a member of the Buddhist Sangha committed any such thought, let alone the action itself, they would instantly cease to be a member of the sangha. The ceremony to remove them would of course come later, but that is just a ritual. They would cease to be a member of the Sangha straight away.

  3. ML
    “I have a lot of respect for the Catholic Rep. He is being very up front and honest about Catholic child sex abuse.”

    Shouldn’t that be expected at the very least? Don’t waste respect.

  4. Newspoll Federal January-March 2013 – 5737 Voters

    Two Party Preferred: ALP 46 (-2) L/NP 54 (+2)
    Primary Votes: ALP 33 (-2) L/NP 46 (+3) GRN 10 (-1)
    Gillard: Approve 32 (-5) Disapprove 56 (+5)
    Abbott: Approve 34 (+4) Disapprove 55 (-4)
    Preferred PM: Gillard 40 (-5) Abbott 39 (+6)

    Federal 2PP in NSW: ALP 46 (-2) L/NP 54 (+2)
    Federal 2PP in VIC: ALP 51 (-3) L/NP 49 (+3)
    Federal 2PP in QLD: ALP 41 (-1) L/NP 59 (+1)
    Federal 2PP in WA: ALP 43 (-2) L/NP 57 (+2)
    Federal 2PP in SA: ALP 49 (-1) L/NP 51 (+1)

  5. Bugler

    [Andrews is from the Left who got in because of a rift between the SDA Right and the AWU Right at the time, which is apparently healed. This is according to Josh Gordon.]

    Possibly. What I was told at the time was a lot more prosaic – neither Jacinta Allan (who has had at least one child since) or Tim Holding (who has now resigned) wanted to stand, and as they were the obvious choices, Andrews was the fallback.

  6. [Oh, come on.
    You can’t expect someone who has learnt to fly a small A/C to know all sorts of stuff about commercial passenger A/C.
    Give Mod Lib a break on this one, at least.]

    Where do you think Airline Pilots start? In Jumbo jets?

    ML said he was a pilot. Basic navigation has changed little since sailing ships although the advent of the GPS has made life a lot easier. A couple of clicks on Google Earth provides the result, and heading off in the wrong direction (via Antarctica?)ensures a bad outcome, or would you disagree?

    ML, as usual, is SO full of crap! He enjoys handing it out but can’t cop it back.

  7. muttleymcgee:

    I will admit I have never flown from Sydney to Vancouver in a Cessna 150!

    If it was possible at all (are there enough Pacific islands to do the hopping?) it would take a hellava long time! It used to take me about 3 hours to plan a 3 hour flight.

    My problem was thinking that Vancouver had to be further than Dallas. Clearly it isn’t. Fair cop!

  8. muttley

    [He enjoys handing it out but can’t cop it back.]

    Mod Lib was trying to out-guess Nate Silver on the flight range and crashed into the sea way short of Vancouver A/P.

    Lucky it was only a Cessna.

  9. Zoomster,

    [Possibly. What I was told at the time was a lot more prosaic – neither Jacinta Allan (who has had at least one child since) or Tim Holding (who has now resigned) wanted to stand, and as they were the obvious choices, Andrews was the fallback.]

    How unsexy. Where’s the wheeling and dealing? The factional warlords? Clearly no creative souls in the Victorian Caucus 😛 .

    (Not that I find it surprising. Andrews did seem like the sensible option)

  10. [He enjoys handing it out but can’t cop it back.]

    What I find amazing is when people don’t change their minds when faced with the data.

    When I looked up the distance calculations I admitted I was wrong.
    When some here look at the polling numbers they say the polling is wrong.

    See the difference?

  11. [I will admit I have never flown from Sydney to Vancouver in a Cessna 150!]

    Nor anyone else.

    [If it was possible at all (are there enough Pacific islands to do the hopping?) it would take a hellava long time!]

    Even longer via Antarctica.

    [It used to take me about 3 hours to plan a 3 hour flight.]

    Yep. No argument from me at all!!

    [My problem was thinking that Vancouver had to be further than Dallas. Clearly it isn’t. Fair cop!]

    ML, whatever you do, DON”T THINK!! You’re not very good at it.

    QED :devil: :devil:

  12. [The Buddhist answer could be none. As the instant a member of the Buddhist Sangha committed any such thought, let alone the action itself, they would instantly cease to be a member of the sangha. The ceremony to remove them would of course come later, but that is just a ritual. They would cease to be a member of the Sangha straight away.]

    So they’re like the True Scotsmen?

  13. [The Buddhist answer could be none. As the instant a member of the Buddhist Sangha committed any such thought, let alone the action itself, they would instantly cease to be a member of the sangha. The ceremony to remove them would of course come later, but that is just a ritual. They would cease to be a member of the Sangha straight away.]

    Well that’s convenient, isn’t it? In fact the Thai Buddhist monkhood is riddled with sex scandals, some of which even get into the very reticent Thai press. They include child sex scandals. You’ve got to behave pretty badly in Thailand to be classed as a scandal.

  14. rummel

    I guess the Russian scientist has just seen that Dennis Quaid movie, the one where the ocean currents stop and everything freezes?

  15. Psephos:

    And I fully endorse every Buddhist everywhere in the world reporting any Buddhist who engages in child sex abuse to the local authorities/police. I don’t support hiding it, pretending its not there, moving the culprit around or any other approach- just report it to the police.

  16. [It used to take me about 3 hours to plan a 3 hour flight.
    Yep. No argument from me at all!!]

    If it takes you that long you should seriously reconsider your flying activities. Flight planning for a 3 hour flight with 3 waypoints using a standard E6B should take no longer than 1 hour at the most.

    Time to review your flying, ML. I’m serious.

  17. Psephos

    I was going to make exactly the same point. Mod Lib is being highly disingenuous about Buddhist monks, esp Theravadans in Thailand. They are riddled with corruption and sex scandals.

  18. There’s no chance that there will be a retrospective grab on people’s capital accumulation in their super funds. The Constitution provides that property cannot be acquired by the Commonwaelth except on just terms. So the first case to hit the High Court would confirm that the government would just have to restore what they had taken.
    The only things that can be changed are:
    1. Tax as money is paid into the super fund IN FUTURE – if a high income earner chooses to put the money above the statutory minimum into (say) shares, they can escape this completely.
    2. Tax of the earnings added IN FUTURE to the money in the accumulation phase.
    3. Tax payable on exit – again this can be bypassed by using a different savings vehicle such as shares or term deposits.
    Raising some of these taxes for higher income earners is not appropriating anything that already exists – it may redirect some of the savings into other channels but that’s a different thing.
    Some may try to argue that raising taxes on exit is taxing money currently in the funds at a higher rate than people have previously expected. However, if you want to have this as one of your taxation “principles”, governments would never be able to raise rates or land taxes and any employment contracts entered into under one set of tax rules would have to be voided if governments raised income taxes, because that would interefere with people’s “expectations”. The arguments about “retrospectivity” are utter rubbish – it quite literally can’t happen because of the constitution and those going on about should STFU before they look even sillier than they are at present.
    The super industry is engaging in classic rent seeking behavior and needs to be called out on it by all commentators of goodwill.

  19. [Time to review your flying, ML. I’m serious.]

    Well I haven’t flown at all for about 5 years and prior to that it was only intermittent (busy work committments don’t you know). Perhaps it shoudn’t take that long, but when you dont do it much and you are a Type A control freak, you tend to like to get down to the nitty gritty stuff.

    Where I was flying had restricted zones and flight level restrictions so I would record all of those as well, even if they were not that close to my route, just in case the instructor asked me to do a re-routing mid flight!

  20. Some friends who have visited family in Holland recently found great fares and good service etc…on the South China Airline flying via Kwagzho to Beijing then onto Europe
    No problems…except endless chinese food !

  21. If ML really thought that flying to the very western edge of North America was further than flying most of the way to the easetrn edge, notwithstanding that the point on the western edge was a bit further north, then his logical powers must be seriously called into question.

    But then we knew that already, didn’t we?

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