Tomorrow’s Australian will bring Newspoll’s quarterly aggregate of its polling from January to March, with breakdowns by state, age and metropolitan/country. GhostWhoVotes has thus far provided us with the national aggregates plus two-party results for each state, which suggest the swing against Labor has been spread fairly evenly:
Two Party Preferred: ALP 46 (-2) L/NP 54 (+2)
Primary Votes: ALP 33 (-2) L/NP 46 (+3) GRN 10 (-1)
Gillard: Approve 32 (-5) Disapprove 56 (+5)
Abbott: Approve 34 (+4) Disapprove 55 (-4)
Preferred PM: Gillard 40 (-5) Abbott 39 (+6)
Federal 2PP in NSW: ALP 46 (-2) L/NP 54 (+2)
Federal 2PP in VIC: ALP 51 (-3) L/NP 49 (+3)
Federal 2PP in QLD: ALP 41 (-1) L/NP 59 (+1)
Federal 2PP in WA: ALP 43 (-2) L/NP 57 (+2)
Federal 2PP in SA: ALP 49 (-1) L/NP 51 (+1)
More to follow.
UPDATE: Full tables here.
UPDATE 2 (2/4/2013): Essential Research has Labor dropping two points on the primary vote for the second week in a row, and this time it’s taken two-party preferred with it, the Coalition’s lead blowing out from 54-46 to 56-44. The Coalition is up two to 49% with the Greens steady on 11%. Also covered are the attributes of the major parties and leaders, with Labor’s and Julia Gillard’s ratings bad and getting worse across the board, most notably with a nine point increase to 82% in the number thinking Labor “divided”, while the Liberal Party records much the same results as a year ago, but with divided down five to 32%. Readers may be shocked to learn that more think Julia Gillard “aggressive”: (up nine to 55%) than Tony Abbott (down six to 49%). Enthusiasm for an early election has increased, with an eight-point increase since the end of January to 43% and a four-point drop in those thinking the government should run a full term to 47%. There’s also some interesting material on social class and where the parties fit in.
UPDATE 3 (2/4/2013): The fifth Morgan multi-mode poll offers more evidence that Labor’s position has further deteriorated in the wake of last fortnight’s abortive leadership ructions, with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 30%, the Coalition up 2.5% to and the Greens up half a point to 11%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is out from 57-43 to 59-41 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 56-44 to 57.5-42.5 on previous election preferences.
Guytaur
I think it is a bit late for unity. Too many nasty words have been spoken, too many sacked and too many fears.
Voters aren’t dumb enough to believe that Labor is not magically united after three years of infighting. They will continue to rate much more highly than the Libs on divided scales.
DTT
The issue has been decided. To avoid the label of rats there will not be much public dissension in the lead up to the election. Much as News and the LNP want that.
diog
Voters will believe a team can work together even when they do not like each other.
After all they do the same every day at work.
[Cyprus finance minister submits his resignation]
The GFC isn’t over yet.
“@davrosz: If you want to discover where the poison in Australia wells from, look first towards Rupert Murdoch, Gina Rinehart and the IPA.”
They can work together are still be divided. After all, that’s what has been happening for three years.
Diog
Your theory since the spill is not holding up. We have had a stupid comment from Fitzgibbon. We have had Crean supporting super based on speculation. On his part some informed speculation but still speculation.
This is not signs of a divided party. That lance was boiled and so far it looks like the public unity is holding.
[901
daretotread
I think it is a bit late for unity.]
What are you saying – that it’s never too soon for a fight among ourselves?
Great initiative from Obama.
[PRESIDENT Barack Obama is proposing new research investment aimed at unlocking the mysteries of the human brain, a senior US administration official says.
The president planned to propose a $US100 million ($A96.44 million) investment for next year during an announcement at the White House on Tuesday morning, the official said.
Obama mentioned the idea in his State of the Union address, comparing the potential to the Human Genome Project that mapped DNA.
“Every dollar we invested to map the human genome returned $140 to our economy, every dollar,” Obama said in the address to Congress in February.
“Today, our scientists are mapping the human brain to unlock the answers to Alzheimer’s.”]
[They can work together are still be divided. After all, that’s what has been happening for three years.]
Has it? A party working effectively together wouldn’t have experienced the divisions and leaking of the past few years.
guytaur@893
What counts is if the public believe they are united. The public clearly do not believe that.
guytaur
Two senior ex Ministers have broken ranks in one week.
That’s a sign of ongoing disunity.
Kevin
I did not believe that last week either. I now believe that the party may have sorted the issue out. However it is a gossamer thin belief that can be shattered by evidence of public division real quick.
My point is that so far the party appears to be united after the spill in a public way. Of course over time if that continues voter perception will change.
Well OK Guytaur, let’s talk about the party. Simon Crean has been all over this week talking a great deal of commonsense about the nuttiness of messing with Super. How does that square with your notions of a freshly united party?
Re super and Tax
___________
While agreeing with Gillard’s probable plans to eliminate the tax adhantages for the super –rich.in super payments..one can only despair at their ham-fisted approached to the matter
They have given Abbott a Fear-stick to beat then with…
There should have been no leakage on this matter until it’s spelled out in the Budget
Now Abbott has the running and using it and is swamping the media with false stories about the proposals
On talk back he is slaughtering Gillard
Bad PR once again damns Gillard
watch the polls slide further
How can they be so inept
Daretoread
‘I am not sure it qualifies as a split like 55. There is no ideological matter to unite around, although party reform and perhaps reduction in union domination many be a sort of back drop.’
I said ‘since’ 1955, but you have it in your second sentence. What must be put before those elements though is the careerist syndrome, which isn’t ordinary union members’ fault.
Philosophy and vision are redundant to the careerists who have taken the party over through the unions – which have no membership relevance to the ALP. The Conroys, Shortens and the Howes’ just use members’ unions and money after being waltzed in by fiefdoms as launching pads to party control. As Latham said, there are no powerful union bosses any more. They go from their union appointments into the party hierarchies for that now.
That’s what the split is about. Not who the leader is. That’s a red herring.
diog
Crean has not been breaking ranks until this morning with his comment on crossing the floor.
However two people even ex ministers does not a public split make. Thats just dissension on the backbench
alias
Its policy discussion. Labor has done it always. I remember similar from the Hawke years.
Except the crossing the floor threat this morning.
GUYTAUR @ 906
That only works if you are an empty shell of a party with absolutely no focus and the massive ability to point fingers and spew blame at everyone else but yourself. A clear example of the lack of insight of the ALP and Gillard is the fact that not once in the last 3 leadership spills has she apologised to the Australian public for the shambolic behaviour behaviour of the party that should be leading the country not trying to divide it.
GIllard and the ALP have grown such a massive chip on their shoulder that I reckon it is affecting their brains. Heard a great quote today in relation to the superannuation farce.
“In true ALP form of late, their execution of the debate has been to rape the idea in a ditch and put two bullets in the back of its head.”
alias@915
They should do it more often. However, they at least need to put it that while they will bring the debate to their colleagues and press for whatever it is, in the end they will abide by what the party decides. It should be official Labor policy that that’s how they operate.
Well, something like this, anyway.
I love that Guytaur.
The comic timing of your final line “except the crossing the floor threat this morning”. Magnificent.
morpheus
You ignore the comments by the PM just after the spill where the PM told the public she too found the week to be appalling etc etc
What do you want the Prime Minister to come out in sackcloth and ashes?
alias
Yes one line that says maybe two people are offing dissension on policy.
A split that does not make.
Yes agreed DisplayName. Except for the fact that Labor is governing with such thin numbers that Crean’s vote could be decisive. So it is a very loaded statement, especially against the backdrop of his extraordinary action the other Thursday.
It seems to me US politicians tend to act more independently of their parties, it’d be nice if that were the case here.
“In true ALP form of late, their execution of the debate has been to rape the idea in a ditch and put two bullets in the back of its head.”
That’s very funny, and accurate, and I hope it came from a senior left party person.
DN
I agree. The position you put at 921 used to be Labor policy from what I remember. Even after leadership spills.
Part of the reason National Conference used to be such robust affairs before it was toned down for the tv cameras.
Goodnight Bludgers
Has Crean explicitly said he might cross the floor or explicitly stated he would not rule it out? Haven’t been following closely but at a quick look it could be a beat-up.
I think that a bit like the surplus, a party is able to set at least some criteria by which it is judged. Better to keep those robust than otherwise.
[While agreeing with Gillard’s probable plans to eliminate the tax adhantages for the super –rich.in super payments..one can only despair at their ham-fisted approached to the matter
They have given Abbott a Fear-stick to beat then with…
There should have been no leakage on this matter until it’s spelled out in the Budget
Now Abbott has the running and using it and is swamping the media with false stories about the proposals
On talk back he is slaughtering Gillard
Bad PR once again damns Gillard
watch the polls slide further
How can they be so inept]
She is a hopeless PM and hopeless party leader, she and her supporters keep making a mess of things, falling into basic traps, creating their own ambushes…One can only wonder how many of the rusted ons have deserted labor under her leadership.
Her forte is as an administrator and internal politics. What a massive mistake to put her in the top job.
Kevin Bonham
[Has Crean explicitly said he might cross the floor or explicitly stated he would not rule it out? Haven’t been following closely but at a quick look it could be a beat-up.]
Crean seems to be explicitly independent for the moment. I’d amost use the term ‘exquisitely’.
Chemical warfare now against Palestinians
_______________________________
Using a new Putrid smelling gas called “Skunk” Israeli troops and police now opray Palestinians with Skunk and attack the homes in many villages
The smell is like raw sewage and many people vomit at the smell of it
Homes.clothes and in some case Palestinian children have recently been dowsed
One wonders how the descendents of the survivors of the Holocaust could become so hate-filled and brutal
This item from a NY Jewish site “Mondoweiss” by US Jews with a conscience on Palestine
http://mondoweiss.net/2013/01/israeli-occupied-palestine.html
Kevin he said he wouldn’t rule it out but specifically said it wasn’t a threat.
Crean from my perspective is showing a great deal of courage by putting his head on the block in an attempt to drive some sense into the party. A person of his long standing and character should not be dismissed lightly. Some of the comments about Crean by Labor people has been appalling. It’s not a good look for Labor.
davidwh@935
Is there an explicit quote where he said that he would not rule it out? I could not find one. He did say “I am prepared to do whatever I can [..]”, and then refused to be drawn on crossing, but I don’t interpret that as necessarily including crossing the floor.
What would happen if he did cross the floor? Expulsion from the PLP? That’s what happened to Terry Martin down here.
Kevin that is probably a fair interpretation of what Crean said. I can’t imagine Crean would cross the floor. I could see him being absent if the issue was important enough. They don’t come much more Labor than Crean.
New thread.
Greg Hunt has to be the new Chauncey Gardner…:”If..all is well….with the roots….then….the garden…will be ….well…”
What a dumb-simpleton
I have spent some time, attempting to divine, ha, how a Cardinal is elected.
Shed some light, anyone?