Tomorrow’s Australian will bring Newspoll’s quarterly aggregate of its polling from January to March, with breakdowns by state, age and metropolitan/country. GhostWhoVotes has thus far provided us with the national aggregates plus two-party results for each state, which suggest the swing against Labor has been spread fairly evenly:
Two Party Preferred: ALP 46 (-2) L/NP 54 (+2)
Primary Votes: ALP 33 (-2) L/NP 46 (+3) GRN 10 (-1)
Gillard: Approve 32 (-5) Disapprove 56 (+5)
Abbott: Approve 34 (+4) Disapprove 55 (-4)
Preferred PM: Gillard 40 (-5) Abbott 39 (+6)
Federal 2PP in NSW: ALP 46 (-2) L/NP 54 (+2)
Federal 2PP in VIC: ALP 51 (-3) L/NP 49 (+3)
Federal 2PP in QLD: ALP 41 (-1) L/NP 59 (+1)
Federal 2PP in WA: ALP 43 (-2) L/NP 57 (+2)
Federal 2PP in SA: ALP 49 (-1) L/NP 51 (+1)
More to follow.
UPDATE: Full tables here.
UPDATE 2 (2/4/2013): Essential Research has Labor dropping two points on the primary vote for the second week in a row, and this time it’s taken two-party preferred with it, the Coalition’s lead blowing out from 54-46 to 56-44. The Coalition is up two to 49% with the Greens steady on 11%. Also covered are the attributes of the major parties and leaders, with Labor’s and Julia Gillard’s ratings bad and getting worse across the board, most notably with a nine point increase to 82% in the number thinking Labor “divided”, while the Liberal Party records much the same results as a year ago, but with divided down five to 32%. Readers may be shocked to learn that more think Julia Gillard “aggressive”: (up nine to 55%) than Tony Abbott (down six to 49%). Enthusiasm for an early election has increased, with an eight-point increase since the end of January to 43% and a four-point drop in those thinking the government should run a full term to 47%. There’s also some interesting material on social class and where the parties fit in.
UPDATE 3 (2/4/2013): The fifth Morgan multi-mode poll offers more evidence that Labor’s position has further deteriorated in the wake of last fortnight’s abortive leadership ructions, with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 30%, the Coalition up 2.5% to and the Greens up half a point to 11%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is out from 57-43 to 59-41 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 56-44 to 57.5-42.5 on previous election preferences.
[Well I haven’t flown at all for about 5 years and prior to that it was only intermittent (busy work committments don’t you know). Perhaps it shoudn’t take that long, but when you dont do it much and you are a Type A control freak, you tend to like to get down to the nitty gritty stuff.]
Fair enough. I’m happy you err on the side of safety but focus on the flight and not get over- involved in details which have a habit of changing.
As long as you end up with an equal number of successfull take-offs and landings in your logbook you’ll do OK. 😉
No.1 ?
Vale Ernie Bridge. A very good man.
Perhaps one of the more redundant quarterlies given the difference between the first five or so weeks and the rest. Even the state swing for Queensland may have been knocked out of whack by the last few weeks.
Reposted from previous thread:
If ML really thought that flying to the very western edge of North America was further than flying most of the way to the easetrn edge, notwithstanding that the point on the western edge was a bit further north, then his logical powers must be seriously called into question.
But then we knew that already, didn’t we?
Lateline interviews labor traitor John Black?
WTF?
[As long as you end up with an equal number of successfull take-offs and landings in your logbook you’ll do OK. ]
So far so good!
….and they could always re-use the planes to boot 🙂
[poroti
Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 10:43 pm | PERMALINK
No.1 ?]
Missed it by that much (visual aide needed)
muttleymcgee:
[As long as you end up with an equal number of successful take-offs and landings in your logbook you’ll do OK]
Assuming you don’t match an unsuccessful take-off with an unsuccessful landing.
Victoria invicta!
Mod Lib
[Missed it by that much (visual aide needed)]
A Maxwell Smart then. 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPwrodxghrw
[If ML really thought that flying to the very western edge of North America was further than flying most of the way to the easetrn edge, notwithstanding that the point on the western edge was a bit further north, then his logical powers must be seriously called into question.]
Well Dallas is about midway mainlaind USA and Vancouver is 2,800km north.
[Missed it by that much (visual aide needed)]
NOW you tell me! You need visual aids? And you fly?
Not with this little black duck!!!
“@Joe_Hildebrand: If homosexuality was like alcoholism I’d be banging a bloke right now. #qanda”
Labor allows itself to be beaten to a pulp over of all things one of their greatest policy triumphs; superannuation.
F F S
guytaur – Hildebrand is an idiot.
Ctar
Yes. Totally agree. Posted that because Hildebrand is making an admission there.
CTar1
[
guytaur – Hildebrand is an idiot.
]
A masterful understatement.
@strom_m: RT “@Ausflatfish: Greg Barnes to manage #Assange #WikiLeaks campaign, philanthropist Philip Wollen provides office http://t.co/2WCoEEaX0d
[“@Joe_Hildebrand: If homosexuality was like alcoholism I’d be banging a bloke right now. #qanda”]
FMD Hildebrand demonstrates why he slums it with the DT with that statement.
What a goose!
guytaur:
I’m going to pretend I never saw that from you. Don’t ever do that again please.
[@strom_m: RT “@Ausflatfish: Greg Barnes to manage #Assange #WikiLeaks campaign, philanthropist Philip Wollen provides office]
Who is providing the groupies?
[Assuming you don’t match an unsuccessful take-off with an unsuccessful landing.]
How can you have any sort of landing given an unsuccessful take-off? The sequel to an unsuccessful takeoff is usually an unplanned and abrupt arrival, not a landing.
Stick with gerunds, Fran, don’t take up flying!
If alcoholism was like homosexuality Australia would be a much nicer country.
confessions
Did not think I would have to but one thing in defence of Hildebrand. He is pointing the ridiculousness of a comparison in his ridiculous way.
guytaur –
[Posted that because Hildebrand is making an admission there.]
My first impulse was to comment on exactly that point.
But then thought I’d be some what restrained.
‘Swift and Shift’ on SBS2 now – mush more sensible.
[If alcoholism was like homosexuality Australia would be a much nicer country.]
I’m not going anywhere near that! No way!
Psephos
Kezza?
I think Assange has done some good. I think there are questions about the vigour of the legal pursuit of him.
However there is no doubt in my mind that the political campaign is a circus. I am surprised Greg Barnes is getting so involved in the circus
@ezraklein: “Support for gay marriage is lowest in the groups that have abandoned traditional marriage in the largest numbers” http://t.co/7XP1fH4j7b
psephos
[Who is providing the groupies?]
I thought he was supposed to be dying of lung congestion months ago stuck in the embassy.
The Met must be getting sick of Big-Macs while they’re watching the place.
MuttlemcGee:
[Stick with gerunds, Fran, don’t take up flying!]
You’ll be pleased to know that I have no interest in piloting aircraft.
I was being slightly facetious with the definitions of “take-off” and landing. I recall that ancient footage of unsuccessful human attempts at flight.
[“Support for gay marriage is lowest in the groups that have abandoned traditional marriage in the largest numbers”]
That’d be right.
[I think Assange has done some good. I think there are questions about the vigour of the legal pursuit of him.
However there is no doubt in my mind that the political campaign is a circus. I am surprised Greg Barnes is getting so involved in the circus]
Now is a good time to be an independent..not major party…and the real or imagined persecution of Assange by the US/Sweden/the World…has won him exposure and support.
It is a worth a shot for him, especially if you are dying of boredom in a small embassy.
Interesting
So Newspoll has the Liberals scoring a bigger swing in Victorian than NSW
According to Anthony Green’s calculator the seats to fall would be
Lilley
Banks
Petrie
Lindsay
Roberston
Greenway
La Trobe
Morton
Deakin
Corangamitte
Even though at this stage i have the ALP losing more seats than that but over the cause of an election campaign i would not be surprised if this list of seats is a fair indication of which seats may fall.
Is Mod Lib still trying to figure out the difference between larger and smaller numbers?
@Pollytics: #Megapoll Opposition to privatisation & outsourcing of health & hospitals. Yellow=60-70%, Blue=70-80%, Red=80%+ http://t.co/60f4aLroI8
Labor supporters please answer this – why doesn’t the government seem to want to touch Polly pensions, and instead change the superannuation of everyday australians?
Mexicanbeemer:
I get:
Reid
Lilley
Banks
Petrie
Lindsay
Robertson
Capricornia
Greenway
La Trobe
Moreton
Deakin
Corangamite
…gained from the ALP for 60 seats.
Given they are likely to lose a few in Tassie and the one in NT, its mid 50s.
Given the very definite trend in the Newspolls over this quarter a mid 50s result would probably be too optimistic for the ALP on current polling.
[ShowsOn
Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 11:24 pm | PERMALINK
Is Mod Lib still trying to figure out the difference between larger and smaller numbers?]
Apparently 54 is bigger than 46 :devil:
I am also led to believe that 58 is bigger than 54, but I defer to you as someone who has been mentioned in Hansard!
Thanks Mod Lib
I though i left some seats out (Reid & Capricornia)
The Coalition will definitely win Lyne and new england as well, which are as good as Labor seats at the moment.
“natalie d”
[why doesn’t the government seem to want to touch Polly pensions, and instead change the superannuation of everyday australians?]
Why won’t the coalition trolls stop asking such obviously ignorant and trolling questions? Answer me that! I dare you!
Natalie D
As much as you may have a strong case but in truth the amount of money saved would be only a small amount no where enough to bring in a surplus.
5 from NSW
4 from Qld
3 from Vic
No seat losses in WA or SA!
Recent polling also showed that Labor would lose Chifley and Werriwa, and by massive margins too, 54-46 and 63-37 respectively.
I wouldn’t be claiming New England, Richard Torbay was the Nats best candidate and one of the few people in that seat with the profile to potentially over shadow Tony Winsdor.
Fran – how is it not a valid question?
Mexican – the surplus is irrelebant to my question. I’m asking why touch superanniation, and not Polly pensions?
Mexican – I know people from NE, and most are ropeable at Windsor’s betrayal, like us here in Lyne.
Number of ALP seats by Antony Green’s calculator:
60 (Newspoll quarterly)
36 (Newspoll- last one)
46 (Neilsen)
53 (Galaxy)
58 (Essential)
Chifley and Werriwa will be close but if we see similar voting patterns to that seen in the last NSW state election then i am incline to think the Liberals may pick up Fowler and come up short in Chifley and Werriwa.
Those two along with Blaxland & Watson did not bring a lot of joy to the Liberals in the last state election.
natalie d
[Fran – how is it not a valid question?]
Fairly obviously, it asserts facts not in evidence as its basic premise. It also introduces a populist red herring using a twee descriptor {polly pensions}.
Now, since we’re on the topic, what motivates fools like you to post such utter tosh? Serious question.