Tomorrow’s Australian will bring Newspoll’s quarterly aggregate of its polling from January to March, with breakdowns by state, age and metropolitan/country. GhostWhoVotes has thus far provided us with the national aggregates plus two-party results for each state, which suggest the swing against Labor has been spread fairly evenly:
Two Party Preferred: ALP 46 (-2) L/NP 54 (+2)
Primary Votes: ALP 33 (-2) L/NP 46 (+3) GRN 10 (-1)
Gillard: Approve 32 (-5) Disapprove 56 (+5)
Abbott: Approve 34 (+4) Disapprove 55 (-4)
Preferred PM: Gillard 40 (-5) Abbott 39 (+6)
Federal 2PP in NSW: ALP 46 (-2) L/NP 54 (+2)
Federal 2PP in VIC: ALP 51 (-3) L/NP 49 (+3)
Federal 2PP in QLD: ALP 41 (-1) L/NP 59 (+1)
Federal 2PP in WA: ALP 43 (-2) L/NP 57 (+2)
Federal 2PP in SA: ALP 49 (-1) L/NP 51 (+1)
More to follow.
UPDATE: Full tables here.
UPDATE 2 (2/4/2013): Essential Research has Labor dropping two points on the primary vote for the second week in a row, and this time it’s taken two-party preferred with it, the Coalition’s lead blowing out from 54-46 to 56-44. The Coalition is up two to 49% with the Greens steady on 11%. Also covered are the attributes of the major parties and leaders, with Labor’s and Julia Gillard’s ratings bad and getting worse across the board, most notably with a nine point increase to 82% in the number thinking Labor “divided”, while the Liberal Party records much the same results as a year ago, but with divided down five to 32%. Readers may be shocked to learn that more think Julia Gillard “aggressive”: (up nine to 55%) than Tony Abbott (down six to 49%). Enthusiasm for an early election has increased, with an eight-point increase since the end of January to 43% and a four-point drop in those thinking the government should run a full term to 47%. There’s also some interesting material on social class and where the parties fit in.
UPDATE 3 (2/4/2013): The fifth Morgan multi-mode poll offers more evidence that Labor’s position has further deteriorated in the wake of last fortnight’s abortive leadership ructions, with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 30%, the Coalition up 2.5% to and the Greens up half a point to 11%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is out from 57-43 to 59-41 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 56-44 to 57.5-42.5 on previous election preferences.
[So could Julia Gillard. Convinced yet or are you just going to continue being a sarky git about her?
If it’s the latter you’ll see where I’m coming from.:p]
I think you will find I said many positive things about Gillard earlier in her term. I was actually asked what I thought of her about 2 or ?3 years ago and said a number of things which appeared to take everyone by surprise!!! I do think she is intelligent and she is determined and she was a very effective Minister and parliamentary performer. Unfortunately for you guys, she has been a dud as a Prime Minister. I know we will have to agree to disagree on that one, but look at the polls…..my view aint that “out there”!
[Generic Person
Posted Tuesday, April 2, 2013 at 10:38 pm | Permalink
No 847
I don’t pay attention to delusional opinions which fail to see the forest for the trees]
Neither do I so I won’t be responding to any more of your tripe.
[Kevin Bonham
Posted Tuesday, April 2, 2013 at 10:39 pm | PERMALINK
My read on the Essential attributes result is that there are a lot of voters who are now so anti-Gillard that they will attribute negatives to her without rationally thinking through whether they are fair calls or not.]
Agreed…but that is not a good position to be in when you are 16% behind in the last Newspoll.
GP:
[Fran, {…} the argument since as far back as 2009 from the left has been that the government needs to communicate better.]
It does, though it also has to have better stuff to communicate.
[It has consistently failed, first because people got sick of Rudd talking absolute crap]
That’s not clear. His poll figures held up well until he dumped climate change policy as a priority and begain going Beattie on others under attack by News Ltd.
[and second because people simply lost faith and stopped believing Labor.]
Actually, the main problem was dumping a PM within months of an election. That was never going to be a good move.
Kevin Bonham@850
Bingo!
Whether it is fair or reasonable or anything else can be argued about, but it’s existence has been obvious for a long time now.
It will continue to drag down Labor’s prospects until it is dealt with.
Generic Person
Can you do us a favor and let us know WHO you are replying to instead of just the post number? I can’t be bothered checking.
“@AgnessMack: #lateline Crass of Abbott to invoke anti-nazi mantra on super with his “first they’ll come for your neighbour,then they’ll come for you””
Peter Lewis @PeterLewisEMC 7h
Essential: 82 pct see Labor as a house divided http://essentialvision.com.au/attributes-of-the-labor-party-4 … . Wondering what other 18 pct are reading #auspol
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 7h
@PeterLewisEMC Pollbludger
🙂
Please people, watch my little North Korean video. Some of you more academic types may have already seen it (and read the fantastic book it is based on) but if you haven’t it is very interesting and informative without being alarmist either way.
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/292562-1
Senator Joyce opposes a moratorium on CSG.
I don’t give Labor any chance at the next election but I wouldn’t be so sure Tone will have the resounding victory some may imagine. IF Labor plays it’s cards right they maybe able to limit the damage.
Tone is as popular as a turd in a swimming pool. Hell, Libs here don’t like him. He will not be a popular PM. He’s set the bar very high for himself, so high he’ll be struggling. The instant he breaks a promise for whatever reason his own words will come back to haunt him. Whenever one of his own gets into trouble his words will come back to haunt him.
To be honest I can’t wait for it to all go wrong for him, which it will over a period of time, then we’ll see how many Lib supporters will be here to defend him.
[Also ANYONE who even deigns to mention North Korea on the Internet needs to watch and rewatch this video until they get it:
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/292562-1
Seriously. Right fucking now. You will not regret it.]
Absolutetwaddle before I spend an hour of my life watching this can you sell it to me? Why should I listen to some bloke selling his book in an address to the rather grand sounding “World Affairs Council of Northern California”.
I’m sure I used to attend meetings of the World Affairs Council of North Queensland at the red corner of the Herbert Hotel in Townsville many years back. Since we disbanded and went out into the world, the world has gone to pack.
“This is a bit like Cyprus”…oooohhhh, over-reach there Barnaby!
[“This is a bit like Cyprus”…oooohhhh, over-reach there Barnaby!]
That moron could be DPM.
Politics is certainly interesting in the US
@BreakingNews: Report: New York State Sen. Malcolm Smith and others arrested in scheme to fix this year’s mayoral race in New York City – @nytimes
A large part of the Australian electorate like the way he speaks his mind.
Its not like a media management workshop when he opens his mouth, thats for sure!
[David Paris @DavidParis
Brian Loughnane is emailing me at 10:15pm. Creeper.]
Scary. Is this the Liberal reach strategy?
kevjohnno
Watch the first 10 minutes. If you don’t stick around for the rest I’d be surprised.
guytaur:
Spin City!
Mod Lib
It is indeed a house divided. If Labor were an old English stately home, the Short-Con black sheep would be living in the conservatory with the guns, horses, and hounds. The remaining progressives would have been sent out from the main house by the family elders to the village and pub, and would be doing quite well at getting some more supporters to sort the glasshouse interlopers out.
🙂
I see the anti Labor brigade are pushing Labor divided meme.
Too late that was so last week. Voters are not dumb they know the division has ended. Now they are just getting the usual budget speculation.
“@BBCGavinHewitt: In the eurozone unemployment has been rising for 22 months – making it longest and bleakest period for unemployment since early 90’s.”
[If Labor were an old English stately home]
Except Labor is not an old English stately home. I see we’re back to the North Korean war hysteria posted earlier, mixed up with a dash of Liberal leadership thinking: ‘If only we had the right leader!!!!’
Seriously deluded.
guytaur:
It’s all they have left.
[Too late that was so last week. Voters are not dumb they know the division has ended. Now they are just getting the usual budget speculation.]
Given that 82% said that Labor were divided in this ER, I doubt that figure has changed much in the last week.
Seriously deluded is the belief that Gillard is going to surge to victory.
Thats “Seriously deluded”!
Anyhow, thats enough mischief for one night. Good night! It must be good news for you that there are no more polls until Monday! Phew- a little breather.
confessions
There’s no NK war hysteria here. One person speculated on its political impact domestically. That’s it.
Cyprus bandaid agreement reached. Is the wound small enough for a bandaid to fix?
“@Reuters: Cyprus to pay 2.5 percent interest rate on bailout loans, repayment to start in 10 years: government spokesman #breaking”
“@Reuters: Cyprus finance minister says bailout loans will be repaid over 12 years”
Diog
You are talking about voters perceptions measured at the height of a non spill.
I am talking about the reality of the party as it appears the week after.
Not the same thing.
Labor divided so last week?
Oh yeah. That’s all changed. That will explain the stunning
rebound in the polls.
Right.
alias
You are delusional. Polls are not the party.
guytaur
It’s a large sports water resistant cloth mega bandaid. They never fold up and fall off after five minutes on the bike.
Guytaur
You and Meguire Bob are in a competition for who can be cast as Comical Ali (Baghad Bob)
Bombs what bombs, there are no tanks
Boom!!, Boom!!
That is not a tank it is just a door slamming.
[I am talking about the reality of the party as it appears the week after.]
They are just as divided. They will continue to tear themselves apart until they get thrashed in September.
DTT
I am not saying Labor is going to win. All I am saying is Labor is not divided this week as the boil has been lanced and there is no evidence of a party split now. Two people speculating on possible future policy is not that.
Remember Polls are not the party.
diog
Your prediction could be correct. However so far no evidence of that.
[Voters are not dumb they know the division has ended. ]
You specifically said that voters say the division has ended.
Diogenes
This is the biggest split since 1955. It isn’t over. That it is so obvious after al election has been called tells us everything.
Diog
I never said any such thing. I said voters know division of last week is over.
Guytaur
There are 10 or more ex cabinet ministers on the back bench most of whom have left in a huff.
It is a bit like asking 10 different exes to a large family Xmas. Rather tense and just a row or twenty waiting to happen
jv
Now you are in the Nostradamus business
DTT
As long as they are in unity in public that is what counts. You know like the Abbott team are doing.
guytaur
In your own words you said voters know the division has ended.
diog
Yes the division of last week. The spill was called and the outcome was decided.
Split over.
guytaur
I’m better than that guy, whoever he was.
JV
I am not sure it qualifies as a split like 55. There is no ideological matter to unite around, although party reform and perhaps reduction in union domination many be a sort of back drop.
😆 jv
“@BreakingNews: Cyprus finance minister submits his resignation – @Reuters”
Mod Lib@853
It is not a good position to be in even when you are just a few points behind.
Labor has struggled throughout this term to make the electorate receptive to positive evidence, where such evidence has existed.
This problem seems to have become even worse now, to the point that the electorate will invent its own negative evidence without even being prompted. It’s not as if the Coalition has been going out of its way to depict the Prime Minister as aggressive, for example.
People can talk about 2001 and how Howard turned around awful attribute perceptions but I don’t know if the public are in the mood to reassess Gillard should the opportunity to do so present itself.