Seat of the week: Richmond

Coastal development has transformed the one-time National/Country Party stronghold of Richmond over the last few decades, with present Labor incumbent Justine Elliot building up a solid margin since unseating Larry Anthony in 2004.

Richmond has covered the north-eastern corner of New South Wales since federation, shrinking steadily over time due to ongoing coastal development (which among other things has cost it the river that gives it its name). It currently extends from Tweed Heads on the border as far south as Lennox Head just to the north of Ballina, extending inland to the western boundaries of the Tweed and Lismore municipalities (although Lismore itself is located beyond the southern boundary in Page). Once a jewel in the National/Country Party crown, its electoral complexion changed as it became increasingly dominated by Byron Bay and Tweed Heads. The area’s counter-cultural tendency is reflected by pockets of support for the Greens, including four of the party’s five strongest booths nationally at the 2010 election (Wilsons Creek, Goonengerry, Nimbin and Main Arm Upper, with Rosebank and The Channon not far behind), with their total vote across the electorate at 16.2%.

Richmond was first won for the Country Party by Roland Green shortly after the party’s creation in 1922, and has spent much of its history as a fiefdom of the Anthony dynasty. It was held from 1937 to 1957 by Larry Anthony, from 1957 to 1984 by Larry’s son Doug, who was party leader from 1971 to 1984, and from 1996 to 2004 by Doug’s son Larry. Doug Anthony’s immediate successor was another party leader in Charles Blunt, who emerged a shock loser at the 1990 election when the independent candidacy of anti-nuclear activist Helen Caldicott drew a rash of new enrolments from Nimbin-area types. When Caldicott fell just short of overhauling the Labor candidate, her preferences fuelled a 7.1% swing to Labor and a victory for their candidate Neville Newell. Larry Anthony failed to recover the seat for the Nationals on his first attempt in 1993, before romping home on the back of an 8.5% swing in 1996. A 6.0% swing in 1998 brought Anthony back down to the wire, and he again survived only narrowly in 2001.

Labor finally snared the seat in 2004, when a 1.9% swing enabled their candidate Justine Elliot to scrape over the line by 301 votes. Elliot went on to serve in the junior ministerial porfolio of ageing in the government’s first term, but was bumped down after the 2010 election to parliamentary secretary for trade, which both she and the Prime Minister insisted was at her own request. She retained the position despite publicly supporting Kevin Rudd’s leadership bid in February 2012, but eventually moved to the back bench in the reshuffle that followed the departures of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans in February 2013. Elliot again maintained the move was made on her own initiative, as she believed her campaigining against the locally sensitive issue of coal seam gas mining conflicted with her responsibilities in the trade portfolio.

The preselected Nationals candidate for the coming election is Matthew Fraser, 34-year-old owner of two local Hungry Jacks franchises. Fraser won preselection ahead of university lecturer Scott Cooper, newsagency owner John McMahon and the candidate from 2010, Myocum beef farmer Alan Hunter. The Liberals have agreed not to field a candidate under the terms of the state parties’ coalition agreement, despite having been only slightly outpolled by the Nationals in 2010 – by 21.2% to 19.1% on the primary vote and 25.3% to 20.8% at the second last preference exclusion. Their candidate from 2010, former Tweed mayor Joan van Lieshout, quit the party in September 2012 and said she was considering running as an independent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,837 comments on “Seat of the week: Richmond”

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  1. ShowsOn:

    Unlike some here I am more than happy to admit when I am wrong!

    It looks like they fly across the atlantic. Sydney to Dallas is 8584 miles and Sydney to Vancouver is 7756 miles in the flight distance calculator. Given Vancouver is way way north of Dallas, that means it would have to be a trans-antarctic flight which makes sense then. I cant imagine a transpacific commercial flight getting to Vancouver.

  2. [Completely certain to completely wrong in the space of two posts.
    Mod Lib at his finest.]

    Be careful of ML. He’s likely a member of one of the most militant Unions in Australia!

  5. 1746

    Not really. They are, I believe, less religious than the Americans and that is the reverse of the Simpsons-Flanders relationship.

    The Canadians are however currently run by the Tories and they are not so nice. They are however expanding the Canadian Parliament to better reflect the population distribution.

  6. [Another beautiful place scenery wise is Utah, but not politically .]

    Agreed. Although I am very curious about this whole mormon polygamy thing and how that intersects with mainstream.

  7. [I cant imagine a transpacific commercial flight getting to Vancouver.]

    I’m really very glad you’re not a Commercial Pilot.

  8. Tom tfab

    It’s the retiree groups the govt has to be afraid of. Beware retrospectivity with people who have been sent down a path to assist govt funding in the first place.

  9. [It looks like they fly across the atlantic. Sydney to Dallas is 8584 miles and Sydney to Vancouver is 7756 miles in the flight distance calculator. Given Vancouver is way way north of Dallas, that means it would have to be a trans-antarctic flight which makes sense then. I cant imagine a transpacific commercial flight getting to Vancouver.]

    How can you fly across either the Atlantic or the Antarctic flying Sydney to Vancouver?

  10. [ShowsOn:

    Unlike some here I am more than happy to admit when I am wrong!]
    OK, well that’s not the first thing you have been wrong about, so when you’re ready…

  11. [davidwh
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 9:40 pm | PERMALINK
    Boeing 770-200LR – does that help?]

    Interesting!

    777- Extended range is apparently 7,700 nautical miles whereas the distance is apparently 7,756 miles!

  18. Well it looks like Vancouver is actually more than 800 miles closer to Sydney than Dallas. I need to have a closer look at my atlas!

    Whodathunkit?

  21. [davidwh
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 9:45 pm | PERMALINK
    Flight distance S to V 12,482kms]

    Sydney to Dallas is 13,815 km

  23. [Well it looks like Vancouver is actually more than 800 miles closer to Sydney than Dallas. I need to have a closer look at my atlas!]

    You realise of course that this proves you are wrong about everything?

  25. [confessions
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 9:42 pm | PERMALINK
    Another beautiful place scenery wise is Utah, but not politically .

    Agreed. Although I am very curious about this whole mormon polygamy thing and how that intersects with mainstream]
    There seems to be 2 streams , one very very conservative some of which evidently still practices polygamy , even though it is outlawed. The other not quite as conservative.
    But don’t think I would go around announcing I had voted for Barack O, unless I knew who I was talking to. There is an alcohol ban (unless now lifted) We stayed up in the mountains at a type of farm B&B, think it was over 11000 ft up there, I suffered terribly from sinus there even though only a couple of days there. The people were very nice and interested in us as the son was coming out to Australia on his 2 year stints to convert people. Fortunately was going to WA not NSW, where we lived.

  27. davidwh

    [with a range of 5,235 to 9,380 nautical miles (9,695 to 17,370 km),]

    Yes – and the one you were on had 4 seats in the middle only rather than the max 5 config.

    ie – lighter load to do the distance.

  28. Looking at the polls for the next Canadian election, I don’t see many with the New Democratic Party getting above what they got at the last one. *sigh* Though what happened at the last election was rather extraordinary.

  29. [muttleymcgee: I did, but davidwh put it in km so I adjusted the miles to km for him]

    Of course you did! And I sincerely believe you!

    The Boeing 777-00LR has “LR” in its name. Any clue why the “LR” is there?

    Clue: It can fly a really long way!

    You are SO full of sh!t, ML!

  31. mari:

    Thanks for that. Admittedly my exposure to that culture comes solely through watching Big Love and through the small mormon community we have here.

    I’m fascinated nonetheless.

  34. Good to see some other posters (and Simon Crean) get the point I’ve been trying to make re super.

    Maybe upping the taxes on contributions on the higher income earners is “fair” in some sense of the word, although it disproportionately attacks people with one type of super over another, and is therefore manifestlyess fair than upping the too marginal tax rate by a few cents (which both sides of politics are too gutless to contemplate doing?).

    I think people would grin and bear paying 30 cents in the dollar on some part.of their contributions. But Crean is spot on: taxing earnings from the money in the fund simply stinks. When you consider the low rate of return and high management fees of most funds in recent years, super starts to look like a bit of a rip off. At least if you were allowed to take your compulsory employer contribution as taxable Income, you could put more of your post-tax income into paying off your mortgage quicker.

    These changes, if they occur, are going to totally piss off a sizeable constituency. All of the discussion of this issue in the media has achieved has been yet again to take the focus away from Abbott and his shortcomings. All for a bit more money to throw at whingy public school teachers who are 100% guaranteed to be completely ungrateful and to demand more.

    I strong supported Gillard against Rudd. But she and her pals really aren’t very good, are they?

  35. The Boeing 777-200LR has “LR” in its name. Any clue why the “LR” is there?

    Long Reach?

    Low Rider?

    LMAO!!!

  36. The Super reporting is a perfect example of how Labor, time and again, lose the battle with the OM.

    The party that brought in super is being portrayed as the bad guys.

    The party that opposed super and taxed it under Howard are the good guys

    It is so frustrating.

  39. The Boeing 777-200LR has “LR” in its name. Any clue why the “LR” is there?

    Long Reach?

    Low Rider?

    Definitely “Lovely Ride”. For sure!

  41. Oh, come on.

    You can’t expect someone who has learnt to fly a small A/C to know all sorts of stuff about commercial passenger A/C.

    Give Mod Lib a break on this one, at least.

  43. BTW What happened on 4 Corners tonight was so engrossed in the planes travel etc forgot to turn it on so what happened please, who is being carted off to jail???

  44. CTar1

    Ta!

    I have had a lot of experience at being wrong so it doesn’t worry me much these days.

    Happy to provide a release to the pent up tension or some here!!!!

  46. When a terrorist goes to heaven where do the 70 virgins come from? Is a virgins hell a terrorists heaven?

    These are the questions that should be asked as the sky fairies are paraded across our screens.

  47. MB

    [When you consider the low rate of return and high management fees of most funds in recent years, super starts to look like a bit of a rip off.]

    Only with commercial funds. With CBUS and Australian Super, not so much.

  48. Fred # 1790

    Plenty of issues there with ascertainment bias and things like that.

    Surely.

    At a guess, lots of horror everywhere. Everywhere.

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