Seat of the week: Richmond

Coastal development has transformed the one-time National/Country Party stronghold of Richmond over the last few decades, with present Labor incumbent Justine Elliot building up a solid margin since unseating Larry Anthony in 2004.

Richmond has covered the north-eastern corner of New South Wales since federation, shrinking steadily over time due to ongoing coastal development (which among other things has cost it the river that gives it its name). It currently extends from Tweed Heads on the border as far south as Lennox Head just to the north of Ballina, extending inland to the western boundaries of the Tweed and Lismore municipalities (although Lismore itself is located beyond the southern boundary in Page). Once a jewel in the National/Country Party crown, its electoral complexion changed as it became increasingly dominated by Byron Bay and Tweed Heads. The area’s counter-cultural tendency is reflected by pockets of support for the Greens, including four of the party’s five strongest booths nationally at the 2010 election (Wilsons Creek, Goonengerry, Nimbin and Main Arm Upper, with Rosebank and The Channon not far behind), with their total vote across the electorate at 16.2%.

Richmond was first won for the Country Party by Roland Green shortly after the party’s creation in 1922, and has spent much of its history as a fiefdom of the Anthony dynasty. It was held from 1937 to 1957 by Larry Anthony, from 1957 to 1984 by Larry’s son Doug, who was party leader from 1971 to 1984, and from 1996 to 2004 by Doug’s son Larry. Doug Anthony’s immediate successor was another party leader in Charles Blunt, who emerged a shock loser at the 1990 election when the independent candidacy of anti-nuclear activist Helen Caldicott drew a rash of new enrolments from Nimbin-area types. When Caldicott fell just short of overhauling the Labor candidate, her preferences fuelled a 7.1% swing to Labor and a victory for their candidate Neville Newell. Larry Anthony failed to recover the seat for the Nationals on his first attempt in 1993, before romping home on the back of an 8.5% swing in 1996. A 6.0% swing in 1998 brought Anthony back down to the wire, and he again survived only narrowly in 2001.

Labor finally snared the seat in 2004, when a 1.9% swing enabled their candidate Justine Elliot to scrape over the line by 301 votes. Elliot went on to serve in the junior ministerial porfolio of ageing in the government’s first term, but was bumped down after the 2010 election to parliamentary secretary for trade, which both she and the Prime Minister insisted was at her own request. She retained the position despite publicly supporting Kevin Rudd’s leadership bid in February 2012, but eventually moved to the back bench in the reshuffle that followed the departures of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans in February 2013. Elliot again maintained the move was made on her own initiative, as she believed her campaigining against the locally sensitive issue of coal seam gas mining conflicted with her responsibilities in the trade portfolio.

The preselected Nationals candidate for the coming election is Matthew Fraser, 34-year-old owner of two local Hungry Jacks franchises. Fraser won preselection ahead of university lecturer Scott Cooper, newsagency owner John McMahon and the candidate from 2010, Myocum beef farmer Alan Hunter. The Liberals have agreed not to field a candidate under the terms of the state parties’ coalition agreement, despite having been only slightly outpolled by the Nationals in 2010 – by 21.2% to 19.1% on the primary vote and 25.3% to 20.8% at the second last preference exclusion. Their candidate from 2010, former Tweed mayor Joan van Lieshout, quit the party in September 2012 and said she was considering running as an independent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,837 comments on “Seat of the week: Richmond”

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  1. JV:

    I found the Netherlands landing ML linked to above much more EEK! than the Nepal one.

    What can be more frightening for a passenger than landing on a strip that ends off a cliff!

  2. Fran:

    That must be a new thing. When I went Air Canada (and never will again mind you after the appalling service), I had to stop in Hawaii.

  3. Poroti 1578 re Egypt port WW1
    _________________
    In 1919 the Egyptian Govt which was under British control though nominally independent ….demanded to be represented at the Paris Peace Conference

    The UK Govt would not near of that and there followed a massive rising against the British across Egypt,with demnos and strikes and some armed clashes…to which the Brits reponded with great force(as they were doing at the same time in Ireland and India)

    Some Australian troops were then in Egyptian bases after fighting in Palestine against the Turks

    These were used by the Brits and took part in several attacks on civilians with deaths and injuries to the Egyptians. The Brits used the Australian forces without consulting Hughes PM in Oz

    Eventually the Egyptians were repressed and the Brits remained there until the early 1950ies when a military revolt by some generals including Nasser…overthtre the corrupt King Farouk and saw to the dismissal of the last UK troops in Egypt
    This event occured on the eve of the Suez Crisis when a comspiracy involving the UK/France and Israel tried to overthrow Nasser and retake the Sues Canal which he had nationalised in 1956.
    Eisenhour refused to support the conspirators..the Russian made threats and the conspirators were thwarted

    .Eisenhour was no great admirer of the Israelis and certainly not their prisoner like some more recent presidents have become
    I will post an soon interesting account of those events of 1919
    involving the Australian troops

  4. [I couldn’t wait to leave and get back to Canada which was a lot more laid back.]

    But they kill baby seals, so we can’t go there either. Where CAN a conscientious Green go for a politically correct holiday? I guess it will have to be North Korea again. They’re very virtuous – no-one eats meat.

  5. Psephos:

    [I’m beginning to think you’re a fake, too, a rather good parody of Green ultra political correctness.]

    I guess that’s as close as you are likely to get to paying me a compliment.

  6. [Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 9:11 pm | PERMALINK
    Confessions:

    Just checked. Air Canada offers a direct flight into Vancouver from Sydney.]

    Absolutely no way any commercial plane can do Vancouver to Sydney

  7. Tom,

    [He is moving from the Legislative Council to the Legislative Assembly at the by-election created by Holding resigning. This leads to inevitable leadership speculation.]

    Why? What faction is he from? I have been pretty convinced that the Victorian ALP is smarter than all this sillyness. It would wind back all the progress they’ve made this term. It is because of their unity the possibility of a one term Coalition government is a real one. I don’t even think Pakula has been considered. The comments were mainly about Holding.

  8. I don’t get this BS about changing Super -having been a close student of the tax treatment of Super over the last 35 years – changes happen every 2-3 years. The current situation is very good if your are in retirement phase – no tax at all! When I was in the acquisition stage I expected to pay 15% on withdrawl, so its a big bonus.
    Some of the legal rorts of the years have been incredible -the averaging of pretax limits in large corporations was the best of all but was tempered by the maximum end limit rule, both have now gone. The very worst was Costellos levy of an extra 15% on pretax deposits but the resultant 30% tax was still a lot better than the maximum marginal.
    Those who rely on super for their retirement have received enormous benefits from the various governments. To the poor widow – the money your husband left you is largely at the expense of the government’s tax scheme and in any case I understand that the proposal is on the acquisition rather than the pension stage.

  9. ML:

    [Absolutely no way any commercial plane can do Vancouver to Sydney]

    Air Canada claims otherwise. 14 hours they say.

  10. Psephos:

    [Where CAN a conscientious Green go for a politically correct holiday?]

    Probably somewhere quite local, in practice.

  11. Mod Lib@1708

    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 9:11 pm | PERMALINK
    Confessions:

    Just checked. Air Canada offers a direct flight into Vancouver from Sydney.


    Absolutely no way any commercial plane can do Vancouver to Sydney

    I flew non-stop Sydney to Vancouver and back in September last year.

  12. natalie d @ 1684
    <i.So nobody has an answer? Labor has no right to raid my money, and that that my late husband left for me, my children and grandchildren.

    And when did this “raid” take place natalie.?

    They must be only targetting nats voters.

    There have been NO changes to how my super operates.

  13. [confessions
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 9:10 pm | PERMALINK
    mari:

    I’m not keen on the US and probably wouldn’t return. I found Chicago very scary if only for the scores of police walking/driving/wheeling around on scooter type things armed to the back teeth. I couldn’t wait to leave and get back to Canada which was a lot more laid back.]

    One of the international companies I worked for was based at Chicago and I agree, also freezing when I had been there. Don’t like LA but love NY and SF. Nicer to keep away from the big cities if possible, small town US is great, but have no desire to go back again except I do have friends over there, One lot in Amish country Penns. amazing places . But have told them to come out here.

  14. Ducky

    ESJ and I are smart enough to realise that most issues are grey.

    It’s party politics that makes issues divisive.

    We choose to abstain. 👿

  15. I think there were no direct flights Australia to Canada for many years after Canadian Pacific went broke.

    They code shared via Hawaii with a US airline for a decade or so.

  16. 1709

    There would not necessarily be a change this term. He may be positioning in case the ALP loose in 2014. Psephos has said several times that the state ALP thinks that it will loose the next state election.

  17. [Where CAN a conscientious Green go for a politically correct holiday?
    ]

    Antarctica but they would have to sail there so they don’t use any fuel.

  18. If I have enough (collecting interest) superannuation to buy a house why should I object to the additional income being taxed at more than 15%?

    Don’t answer that!

  19. I flew Canada 3000 while it was in operation in late 1990s.

    To get to Canada you went via Nadi and Honolulu. Flew into storm out of Nadi – I have been scared of flying ever since.

  20. [Psephos has said several times that the state ALP thinks that it will lose the next state election.]

    I think people have become a bit more optimistic since the last time I said that.

  21. I remember the tax breaks on superannuation coming in at a time of worry about funding the baby boomers on the federal pension – to encourage people to invest for their own retirement.

    Those who took up the offer and have done OK despite the GFC horrors some experienced are not going to thank any government who now says,”Only kidding. We are now taking back your tax incentive retrospectively. Get stuffed.” Even if it won’t hurt most, it will create anxiety generally.

    Crean apparently realises this. That he mentions it suggests retrospectivity is on the table.

    It is highly dangerous territory to bung this on in the last budget a few months before an election. They have absolutely no idea in the affiliated bosses’ bunker.

  22. Re Air Canada
    _________
    We travelled some years ago on the Sydney-Vancover route and found Air Canada a very inferior airline..never again !!

    On our home flight we had a series of power failures which closed down the movie and electonic devices and for a while left only the small emergency lights …was very alarming BTW.. We did stop in Hawaii on each trip with A C.

    ..really A>C no better than those awful US Airlines
    I have family in Chicago and hate air travel in the US…not to mention the horrors of airports like LA

  23. mari:

    Having said that about the US, I would love to visit Montanna and Yellowstone/Glacier. I’m seriously in awe of that landscape and would happily sit through the Horse Whisperer and that other silly through the ages movie about that family of 3 sons on mute just to drool over the scenery and backdrop. 🙂

  24. [We did it in August 2008]

    I went the year before you, and tried to get a direct flight Sydney – Vancouver, but nothing.

  25. [I flew non-stop Sydney to Vancouver and back in September last year.]
    BULLSHIT!

    Mod Lib says there is NO WAY that can happen!

    And Malcolm Turnbull agrees with him.

  26. [I flew non-stop Sydney to Vancouver and back in September last year.]

    Well I stand corrected then. I just am amazed that any plane has that kind of range.

    What plane was it by the way? A380 or an older one? Is it transpacific or transatlantic?

    The Sydney Dallas flight has had to do a stopover due to range problems, so how a plane gets even further to Vancouver amazes me!

  27. Tom,

    [There would not necessarily be a change this term. He may be positioning in case the ALP loose in 2014. Psephos has said several times that the state ALP thinks that it will loose the next state election.]

    The next state election will certainly be one to watch. I really don’t know much about Pakula, so I’m not sure if he’s leadership material. Andrews is from the Left who got in because of a rift between the SDA Right and the AWU Right at the time, which is apparently healed. This is according to Josh Gordon.

    The issues that have harmed the Coalition during this term are hardly likely to lose focus heading into the election. The TAFE cuts are going to hit harder by the election, because that’s when the cuts are going to reach full effect. I think that contrary to conventional wisdom of the time, the fight with the federal Government over health funding has harmed the Coalition much more than it harmed federal Labor. Add to that a redistribution, and it doesn’t look good for the Coalition…

    Lets just hope they hold it together until November 2014.

  28. Dio

    [Antarctica but they would have to sail there so they don’t use any fuel.]

    Air New Zealand once used only half the necessary fuel when all on board had paid for a round flight.

  29. [confessions
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 9:29 pm | PERMALINK
    mari:

    Having said that about the US, I would love to visit Montanna and Yellowstone/Glacier. I’m seriously in awe of that landscape and would happily sit through the Horse Whisperer and that other silly through the ages movie about that family of 3 sons on mute just to drool over the scenery and backdrop.]

    It is beautiful there I loved it even though I could hardly see Old Faithful through the snow. Another beautiful place scenery wise is Utah, but not politically .

  30. Confessions we did a Canada/Alaska tour and going over it was Sydney/Vancouver/Victoria and coming home Fairbanks/Seattle/Vancouver/Sydney. The return journey was a looong one.

  31. [Well I stand corrected then. I just am amazed that any plane has that kind of range.]
    Completely certain to completely wrong in the space of two posts.

    Mod Lib at his finest.

  32. [A Canadian friend said that having the USA for neighbours is like living next door to the Simpsons]
    Does that make Canadians the Flanderersses?

  33. 1730

    Crean, and the vested interests (such as the Coalition, the Super industry and the non-pensioner retirees groups) are arguing against even restoring the 15% Super withdrawals tax, to over 60s, that existed before 2006, even with a threshold (that it did not have before).

    Most are also against raising higher taxes on higher income people`s super earnings, like has been announced for their contributions.

  34. ML it was trans-Pacific. It was a wide-bodied jet of some configuration because we had the four centre to ourselves going and coming back.

  35. [and found Air Canada a very inferior airline..never again !!]

    I was strong-armed by a male flight attendant trying to use the business class toilet – I was 2 rows away from business class, and figured the queue for the economy toilet waaaaay down the back didn’t need an extra when the business class toilet had nobody waiting for it.

    Nope, before I could even get through the curtain I was intercepted and told to use the economy toilet.

    Where was Marn with his accusations of class war when I needed him!

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