Seat of the week: Richmond

Coastal development has transformed the one-time National/Country Party stronghold of Richmond over the last few decades, with present Labor incumbent Justine Elliot building up a solid margin since unseating Larry Anthony in 2004.

Richmond has covered the north-eastern corner of New South Wales since federation, shrinking steadily over time due to ongoing coastal development (which among other things has cost it the river that gives it its name). It currently extends from Tweed Heads on the border as far south as Lennox Head just to the north of Ballina, extending inland to the western boundaries of the Tweed and Lismore municipalities (although Lismore itself is located beyond the southern boundary in Page). Once a jewel in the National/Country Party crown, its electoral complexion changed as it became increasingly dominated by Byron Bay and Tweed Heads. The area’s counter-cultural tendency is reflected by pockets of support for the Greens, including four of the party’s five strongest booths nationally at the 2010 election (Wilsons Creek, Goonengerry, Nimbin and Main Arm Upper, with Rosebank and The Channon not far behind), with their total vote across the electorate at 16.2%.

Richmond was first won for the Country Party by Roland Green shortly after the party’s creation in 1922, and has spent much of its history as a fiefdom of the Anthony dynasty. It was held from 1937 to 1957 by Larry Anthony, from 1957 to 1984 by Larry’s son Doug, who was party leader from 1971 to 1984, and from 1996 to 2004 by Doug’s son Larry. Doug Anthony’s immediate successor was another party leader in Charles Blunt, who emerged a shock loser at the 1990 election when the independent candidacy of anti-nuclear activist Helen Caldicott drew a rash of new enrolments from Nimbin-area types. When Caldicott fell just short of overhauling the Labor candidate, her preferences fuelled a 7.1% swing to Labor and a victory for their candidate Neville Newell. Larry Anthony failed to recover the seat for the Nationals on his first attempt in 1993, before romping home on the back of an 8.5% swing in 1996. A 6.0% swing in 1998 brought Anthony back down to the wire, and he again survived only narrowly in 2001.

Labor finally snared the seat in 2004, when a 1.9% swing enabled their candidate Justine Elliot to scrape over the line by 301 votes. Elliot went on to serve in the junior ministerial porfolio of ageing in the government’s first term, but was bumped down after the 2010 election to parliamentary secretary for trade, which both she and the Prime Minister insisted was at her own request. She retained the position despite publicly supporting Kevin Rudd’s leadership bid in February 2012, but eventually moved to the back bench in the reshuffle that followed the departures of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans in February 2013. Elliot again maintained the move was made on her own initiative, as she believed her campaigining against the locally sensitive issue of coal seam gas mining conflicted with her responsibilities in the trade portfolio.

The preselected Nationals candidate for the coming election is Matthew Fraser, 34-year-old owner of two local Hungry Jacks franchises. Fraser won preselection ahead of university lecturer Scott Cooper, newsagency owner John McMahon and the candidate from 2010, Myocum beef farmer Alan Hunter. The Liberals have agreed not to field a candidate under the terms of the state parties’ coalition agreement, despite having been only slightly outpolled by the Nationals in 2010 – by 21.2% to 19.1% on the primary vote and 25.3% to 20.8% at the second last preference exclusion. Their candidate from 2010, former Tweed mayor Joan van Lieshout, quit the party in September 2012 and said she was considering running as an independent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,837 comments on “Seat of the week: Richmond”

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  1. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@144

    Bemused,
    With our kids glued to pcs, smartphones, tablets etc since birth, that is one sector nearly any of them could be trained in, and find work.

    A lot of work has been off-shored.

    And foreign outsourcing companies bring in a lot of people on 457 visas rather than employ locals. And to suggest there is a skills shortage is just bs. There is a lot of unemployment in IT.

  2. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@149

    So, does that mean the dep’t is not checking 457s as much as it should be? Maybe it is low on the list of priorities, seeing as most of the furor is around AS boat arrivals, (which is much to the benefit of the LNP and The Greens.)

    I don’t know what enforcement measures are taken but the are entirely ineffective.

    From what I can see, one dodge to be able to say you can’t fine anyone locally is to advertise a job with unrealistic requirements which it is unlikely anyone will meet. When no local meets the requirements you have a “skills shortage” and can go to a 457 applicant. With relaxed requirements of course.

  3. With this 10th anniversary of the Iraq Invasion by the USA and it’s slave states (e.g. Australia) against an UN approval, you would expect the ALP to roundly condemn the war mongering of the USA alliance and the Australian Lib Government lead by the potential war criminal John Howard.

    I know wars with “only” 200,000 deaths are disasters if they happened in the US of A (the only nation the current ALP, and previous, and next, LNP Governments are concerned about .

    I know we have to accept such deaths are merely unfortunate when occurring in “wogdom”

    The ALP Government lead by the (barely literate) SDA/AWU bosses are of course silent about this terrible anniversary.

    To me, this is a significant sign of the hollowness of the ALP and its total confusion i.e. valuelessness.

    I know most “Labor” posters on here would welcome the current “valuelessness” of the ALP for right-wing reasons.

  4. Mod Lib@150


    WOW….what an absolute rort! Over more than three years we have had:
    Three cases (two settled out of court)
    and “49 minor offences”

    Did they get Interpol and the CIA in to assist?

    No Mod, it is more a case of failure to properly enforce the conditions or the shonks finding loopholes. See my reply to Puffy for one.

  5. Bemused

    Ruddock is definitely a zombie.

    In fact, the LNP front bench are the living dead and the election of a Coalition Govt would be a zombie apocalypse!

    Now, where’s my chainsaw…

  6. To be honest, I can’t see it being practical trying to hang on to I.T. jobs. How many of them even require the person to be physically present?

  7. sprocket

    Thanks for posting regarding the Daily Telegraphg front page.

    Ruperts in town. Maybe he has decided his business is more important than campaigning for Abbot as the NBN is now a reality along with a carbon price.

    Not that I am holding my breath on that one.

  8. Bemused

    Your ‘evidence’ is as compelling as Gillard’s at Dog Whistlers’ Hill. After 6 yrs of running the 457 program she has the gall to say, apropos of nothing, ” I hear that .. this and that might have happened.”
    Look at the stats.
    It’s a focus group thing plain and simple – going for the racists, yet again.

  9. DisplayName@156

    To be honest, I can’t see it being practical trying to hang on to I.T. jobs. How many of them even require the person to be physically present?

    That can be said about many white collar jobs.

    How do you feel about having your personal financial data outside of Australian legal protection?

    If you were running a company, would you feel comfortable placing a lot of your intellectual property and competitive advantage in the hands of an off-shore company? Or even a local one?

    The pendulum is swinging back in the US and I think starting to here also.

  10. I don’t see what the “racism” kerfuffle is about 457s.

    All the noble talk about immigrants building this country etc. etc. is beside the point.

    457 visas do not have anything to do with immigration.

    In fact they are the antithesis of immigration.

    People who come here on 457 visas do so onthe specific understanding that they are NOT immigrating to Australia and must leave when their employment is up.

    We have a skilled migration program, and it is completely separate and different to 457 visas which are a temporary measure and always were designed to be so.

    457 visas are there for circumstances when an Australian citizen or permanent resident cannot be found to do the work.

    While there may not be thousands of rorts at present, that is no reason to ignore the possibility of them.

    Anticipating and preventing exploitation of loopholes is part of the job of government.

    The whingers about 457 visas would be screaming if there WERE rorts by the thousands. They would be alleging incompetence.

    As to Pauline Hanson, what she chooses to say about 457 visas is her problem, and none of Gillard’s doing. Hanson, of all people, is known for speaking her mind in the most forthright fashion. No-one’s been able to shut her up for good. It’s still a free country.

  11. [Peter Phelps MLC and Peter van Onselen, who used to be good buddies]

    They so did not used to be good buddies!

    Seriously, PvO and the odious Peter Phelps? Say it ain’t so!

  12. jaundiced view@158

    Bemused

    Your ‘evidence’ is as compelling as Gillard’s at Dog Whistlers’ Hill. After 6 yrs of running the 457 program she has the gall to say, apropos of nothing, ” I hear that .. this and that might have happened.”
    Look at the stats.
    It’s a focus group thing plain and simple – going for the racists, yet again.

    No jv, it is a very real problem.

    You can, and do, legitimately ask “Why now?”.

    Why now indeed! This has been a problem for many years and should never have been allowed to the extent it has.

  13. Blackburnshpere

    [One of my work colleagues is on a 457 visa. He is most offended by the whole debate and feels that he has been made unwelcome in oz.]

    Oh dear, a poor dear is “offended” that we have the offensive arrogance to discuss a Government policy.

    I wish all these precious people would tell us in advance what we may not discuss.

    I suppose he/she might be offended by eating pork, dressing in ways he/she did not approve or wearing pink eyelashes, believing the earth is flat/or round.

    Appalling that you wankers should open your mouths without thinking you might “offend” someone.

    New Labor Policy (supported by Libs) – total silence,

    Totally supported by Blackburnsphere, Seig Heil!

  14. The effect of working holiday visas on low skilled work in Australia, I would estimate as having a negative effect on the ordinary low skilled workers of Australia. I would estimate that these visas would bring in more people to work in low skilled jobs than it causes to leave. The only caveat I would add to that would be that it creates some Australian jobs (mainly low skill) that would not exist if we had poorer migrants, who sent money back to their families, do the jobs instead.

    It also means that Australia`s low skill immigration is disproportionately made up of middle class 18-30s from wealthy nations. There are plenty (tens-hundreds of millions) of poorer people (thus with more need) who could do the jobs instead.

    With most working holiday visa holders being European/white and a significant proportion being anglophone it makes them blend into the white, European and Anglophone population of Australia population more easily and thus causes less discord from those with prejudice against those who are not white, European and Anglophone.

  15. [Peter van Onselen‏@vanOnselenP41m
    @barryofarrell what an entirely unpleasant person your upper house whip is. A good reason not to vote Liberal… @PeterPhelpsMLC

    Peter Phelps MLC‏@PeterPhelpsMLC1h
    @vanOnselenP Yes – a one-trick pony as an academic (“ooh, secret political databases”) and a purveyor of conventionalities as a commentator]

    There’s much more.

  16. BBS

    What country is that person from? What are their laws?

    Do they have unions standing up and demanding any foreign workers must be paid the same as Aussie workers?

  17. Bushfire Bill@162

    I don’t see what the “racism” kerfuffle is about 457s.

    All the noble talk about immigrants building this country etc. etc. is beside the point.

    457 visas do not have anything to do with immigration.

    In fact they are the antithesis of immigration.

    People who come here on 457 visas do so onthe specific understanding that they are NOT immigrating to Australia and must leave when their employment is up.

    We have a skilled migration program, and it is completely separate and different to 457 visas which are a temporary measure and always were designed to be so.

    457 visas are there for circumstances when an Australian citizen or permanent resident cannot be found to do the work.

    While there may not be thousands of rorts at present, that is no reason to ignore the possibility of them.

    Anticipating and preventing exploitation of loopholes is part of the job of government.

    The whingers about 457 visas would be screaming if there WERE rorts by the thousands. They would be alleging incompetence.

    As to Pauline Hanson, what she chooses to say about 457 visas is her problem, and none of Gillard’s doing. Hanson, of all people, is known for speaking her mind in the most forthright fashion. No-one’s been able to shut her up for good. It’s still a free country.

    BB is 100% correct on this one.

    I have friends who migrated here and are mighty pissed off with 457s being treated as a sort of back door immigration without having to go through all the processes they did.

  18. As i said, maybe 457s are low in priority. That they are hardly ever checked once issued would be an incentive for rorting. I would not take those figures (mod lib 150) as any indication of the rates of rorting.

  19. Why does Australia need so many different sorts of visa’s

    During the Australian Open the commentators were talking about the rising Canadian tennis player Milos Radic and they said his parents chose Canada for it had a one page immigration form whilst our immigration forms were several pages.

  20. [hey so did not used to be good buddies!]

    What the heck is a “buddy”? I assume that is the singular of “buddies”.

    Is it a particularly fertile tree that buds?

  21. Mexicanbeemer

    [During the Australian Open the commentators were talking about the rising Canadian tennis player Milos Radic and they said his parents chose Canada for it had a one page immigration form whilst our immigration forms were several pages.]

    It may have been a literate problem.

  22. [What the heck is a “buddy”?]

    It’s an American slang term for a good friend, derived from “brother.” (I’m happy to help you with any other problems you may be having with human speech.)

  23. 171

    Economically speaking, professionals, small business people, the upper 60+% of tradespeople, all but the top end of the non-pensioner retirees, all but the lowest-income part pension retirees, etc and their dependants.

  24. Puff
    So, Gillard’s racist call at the Hill was just that. Her department has no evidence of meaningful rorting, & neither does she, and neither does anyone else. Utterly transparent signal to the rednecks.

  25. I believe 457 visa’s are a handy right wing tool to undermine Australian workers’ opportunities and Australian working standards.

    It is no wonder the Right love them.

  26. ML

    footy ( earlier , I comes n I goes)

    Swans only ones to skate through…Adelaide, Brisbane, Westcoast, St Kilda and Carlton all gone down to their working class opponents….well apart from the suns

  27. Bemused, you are an ignorant fool on the question of 457 visas. If you say there are rorts, where is your evidence? All the evidence points the other way, and the fact is that this is dog-whistling at its worst.
    So you and all the other zenophobes should shut up until you have some evidence, because there’s no excuse for your ignorance.

  28. Psephos:

    R U sure?

    [If “buddy” is not simply a mutation of “brother,” however, it may be a form of “butty,” a 19th century English dialect term for “companion.” This “butty,” in turn, appears to be a corruption of “booty,” a term dating back to the 15th century and meaning (according to the Oxford English Dictionary) “plunder, gain, or profit acquired in common and destined to be divided among the winners.” Thus a “booty-fellow” (16th century) or “butty” would be a comrade who participates in an enterprise, legal or not, and shares in the proceeds.]

    http://www.word-detective.com/2007/07/buddy/

  29. bemused@160

    DisplayName@156

    To be honest, I can’t see it being practical trying to hang on to I.T. jobs. How many of them even require the person to be physically present?

    That can be said about many white collar jobs.

    How do you feel about having your personal financial data outside of Australian legal protection?

    If you were running a company, would you feel comfortable placing a lot of your intellectual property and competitive advantage in the hands of an off-shore company? Or even a local one?

    The pendulum is swinging back in the US and I think starting to here also.

    I think that’s fair enough when it comes to in house systems. However I think that if we want development of the Australian I.T. industry to move at a faster pace, we need to be prepared to cope with being more open.

  30. [Swans only ones to skate through]

    Yes, thanks. I had checked myself.

    Having noted they were well in front in the first quarter I wasn’t following closely so you gave me a little bit of a shock there!

  31. trots, the Ruddolescent, IPA clones, Lib drones…all so swollen up, so bloated with delusions of relevance. What a free-loading bucket of misfits, whingers and semi-professional groaners you are. What have you got to put forward! What claims A few hand-me-down slogans and a common-garden hatred of Labor. That’s it. You and your peep-show politics. Nothing. Nothing but the insults of the delinquent.

  32. jaundiced view@179

    Puff
    So, Gillard’s racist call at the Hill was just that. Her department has no evidence of meaningful rorting, & neither does she, and neither does anyone else. Utterly transparent signal to the rednecks.

    jv, I have previously refuted your claims. Why do you persist when you are simply wrong?

  33. Surely the Short-Con spinners residing here are not saying the party isn’t into whistling racists on 457s, after the ongoing refugee demonisation?

  34. Those crying racism on 457 better explain that to the arab, asian, and other races that make up Australian workers missing out due to 457 visas.

    Those crying xenophobic had better explain what it has to do with immigration considering we have increased that.

  35. [Peter van Onselen‏@vanOnselenP8m
    Seriously, anyone who wants a laugh check out the twitter feed of @PeterPhelpsMLC. Inspiring representative 🙂

    Peter Phelps MLC‏@PeterPhelpsMLC2m
    @vanOnselenP What is hilarious is you being paid by Sky and the Tele despite never having broken a single political story in your career.]

  36. Psephos:

    Thanks for the PVO twitter tip….have no idea what it is about still (some 5yo preselection battle) but its entertaining!

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