Seat of the week: Richmond

Coastal development has transformed the one-time National/Country Party stronghold of Richmond over the last few decades, with present Labor incumbent Justine Elliot building up a solid margin since unseating Larry Anthony in 2004.

Richmond has covered the north-eastern corner of New South Wales since federation, shrinking steadily over time due to ongoing coastal development (which among other things has cost it the river that gives it its name). It currently extends from Tweed Heads on the border as far south as Lennox Head just to the north of Ballina, extending inland to the western boundaries of the Tweed and Lismore municipalities (although Lismore itself is located beyond the southern boundary in Page). Once a jewel in the National/Country Party crown, its electoral complexion changed as it became increasingly dominated by Byron Bay and Tweed Heads. The area’s counter-cultural tendency is reflected by pockets of support for the Greens, including four of the party’s five strongest booths nationally at the 2010 election (Wilsons Creek, Goonengerry, Nimbin and Main Arm Upper, with Rosebank and The Channon not far behind), with their total vote across the electorate at 16.2%.

Richmond was first won for the Country Party by Roland Green shortly after the party’s creation in 1922, and has spent much of its history as a fiefdom of the Anthony dynasty. It was held from 1937 to 1957 by Larry Anthony, from 1957 to 1984 by Larry’s son Doug, who was party leader from 1971 to 1984, and from 1996 to 2004 by Doug’s son Larry. Doug Anthony’s immediate successor was another party leader in Charles Blunt, who emerged a shock loser at the 1990 election when the independent candidacy of anti-nuclear activist Helen Caldicott drew a rash of new enrolments from Nimbin-area types. When Caldicott fell just short of overhauling the Labor candidate, her preferences fuelled a 7.1% swing to Labor and a victory for their candidate Neville Newell. Larry Anthony failed to recover the seat for the Nationals on his first attempt in 1993, before romping home on the back of an 8.5% swing in 1996. A 6.0% swing in 1998 brought Anthony back down to the wire, and he again survived only narrowly in 2001.

Labor finally snared the seat in 2004, when a 1.9% swing enabled their candidate Justine Elliot to scrape over the line by 301 votes. Elliot went on to serve in the junior ministerial porfolio of ageing in the government’s first term, but was bumped down after the 2010 election to parliamentary secretary for trade, which both she and the Prime Minister insisted was at her own request. She retained the position despite publicly supporting Kevin Rudd’s leadership bid in February 2012, but eventually moved to the back bench in the reshuffle that followed the departures of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans in February 2013. Elliot again maintained the move was made on her own initiative, as she believed her campaigining against the locally sensitive issue of coal seam gas mining conflicted with her responsibilities in the trade portfolio.

The preselected Nationals candidate for the coming election is Matthew Fraser, 34-year-old owner of two local Hungry Jacks franchises. Fraser won preselection ahead of university lecturer Scott Cooper, newsagency owner John McMahon and the candidate from 2010, Myocum beef farmer Alan Hunter. The Liberals have agreed not to field a candidate under the terms of the state parties’ coalition agreement, despite having been only slightly outpolled by the Nationals in 2010 – by 21.2% to 19.1% on the primary vote and 25.3% to 20.8% at the second last preference exclusion. Their candidate from 2010, former Tweed mayor Joan van Lieshout, quit the party in September 2012 and said she was considering running as an independent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,837 comments on “Seat of the week: Richmond”

Comments Page 3 of 37
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  1. [confessions
    Posted Saturday, March 30, 2013 at 10:24 pm | PERMALINK
    Right, so if someone thinks an MP is disloyal, for, say, I dunno, what could it be, lets say backstabbing their leader.

    Except Swan hasn’t backstabbed the leader.

    MTBW supports all those who actually HAVE backstabbed the leader, only she whinges about people backstabbing the leader who is no longer leader because nobody could work with him.

    Logic FAIL. Sorry, but your inconsistency argument should be taken up with MTBW, not me.]

    Oh I see, confessions. “Except Swan hasn’t backstabbed the leader.”

    As I said, your idea of “logical inconsistency” is to disagree with another opinion.

    Given you appear to be a little slow on the uptake let me give you a hint how it works:

    Confessions world:
    MTBW: I think Swan backstabbed Rudd
    Confessions: No you are wrong. You see? I have proven your logical inconsistency

    Now let me show you how it works in the real world:
    MTBW: I think Swan backstabbed Rudd
    Confessions: I don’t

    You see how it works? Did I go to quickly?

  2. Mod Lib@97

    [jaundiced view
    Posted Saturday, March 30, 2013 at 10:23 pm | PERMALINK
    Andrew Bartlett nicely exposes the (yet again) cheap use of anything by Gillard to appeal to racists, most lately on the 457 visas, as in western Sydney. Brebdan O’Connor didn’t like it, but hasn’t said why or what after 2 days.

    “@AndrewBartlett @onlineopinion your view is utterly without foundation.”

    http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=14819

    No surprise that Hanson supports the 457 visa plans
    We previously had Bolt and Senator Fielding’s Malaysian rendition plan

    She is an absolute gem, this Gillard, isn’t she?

    Except that in this case there are serious problems with rorting 457 and other visas. To say that is not to attack such visas per se, but to want the rorting stopped.

  3. [Gary Ablett Jr has to be the best footballer I’ve ever seen. He’s like the Lionel Messi of the AFL.]

    Diog, please. Lionel Messi plays the World Games, ABlett plays in Goldcoast

  4. Don’t worry bemused – we all believe you. What was it Gillard said this week? Oh yes … that she was “appalled by the self-indulgence of Labor members”
    It was precisely people like you and feeney she had in mind.

    Yes, such a nuisance these few remaining rank & file members, wanting philosophy, vision and progressive policy rather than cheap pragmatism. So irritating to Careerist Central.

  5. [Except that in this case there are serious problems with rorting 457 and other visas. To say that is not to attack such visas per se, but to want the rorting stopped.]

    The sudden problem with 457 visas right when Gillard was visiting western Sydney and made speeches along the lines of “we have to protect good old Aussie jobs from those dirty foreigners” eh?

    Western Sydney aint that dumb guys*

    *References: All the polls since her ill-fated western Sydney Non-campaign :devil:

  6. Suns up! Means that favorites have gone down in 5 of 6 AFL games …so much for bookies odds…including the Doggies top of the ladder….woof!! something for their no 1 fan

  7. Adam@94

    Try all you like but a third team is just desperately tryhard – ok being a demons supporter is hard – just persevere – or take the range rover out for a drive and work out some angst!!!!

  8. Mod Lib@105

    Except that in this case there are serious problems with rorting 457 and other visas. To say that is not to attack such visas per se, but to want the rorting stopped.


    The sudden problem with 457 visas right when Gillard was visiting western Sydney and made speeches along the lines of “we have to protect good old Aussie jobs from those dirty foreigners” eh?

    Western Sydney aint that dumb guys*

    *References: All the polls since her ill-fated western Sydney Non-campaign

    The problem has been there a long time and it does no credit to the governments that have until now ignored it.

    One of the effects has been to halve the number of Australians enrolling for IT courses at universities.

  9. [Given you appear to be a little slow on the uptake let me give you a hint how it works:

    Confessions world:
    MTBW: I think Swan backstabbed Rudd
    Confessions: No you are wrong. You see? I have proven your logical inconsistency

    Now let me show you how it works in the real world:
    MTBW: I think Swan backstabbed Rudd
    Confessions: I don’t]

    Except here’s the evidence:

    Swan: served loyally under the Sociopath.
    Swan: served loyally under Gillard.

    However, under MTBW’s model of loyalty:

    The Sociopath served loyally while the Sociopath was calling the shots.
    The Sociopath has turned to anarchy and disloyalty once he no longer called the shots.

    So MTBW’s dissing of Swan’s loyalty means….. what exactly? Nothing. Her argument can’t be sustained.

  10. JV

    I made the mistake of reading Andrew Bartlett’s piece you linked, at it reminded me why he helped destroy the Democrats, and would be up for a second bout destroying the Greens if he ever gets preselected again.

    He could though, join the SH-Y Goth faction.

    On the merits of his argument re Working Holiday Visas, he could have mentioned they are reciprocal.

  11. One of my work colleagues is on a 457 visa. He is most offended by the whole debate and feels that he has been made unwelcome in oz.

  12. Can I get this straight please?

    While calling an ex-ALP Prime Minister and Foreign Minister a “sociopath”, you are condemning a decades-long member of the ALP for being “disloyal” for saying that Swan, the Deputy PM backstabbed Rudd (the then PM) to ensure Gillard got the job.

    …and you see no problems with this I take it?

    YIKES!!!!

  13. blackburnpseph@113

    One of my work colleagues is on a 457 visa. He is most offended by the whole debate and feels that he has been made unwelcome in oz.

    If the 457 visa was legitimately obtained and the conditions being observed then what’s his problem? That is not what is being criticised.

  14. This is why the confected outrage by the govt on its very own section 457s as said by me yesterday in conversation on Twitter:

    ” #457s ideal for govt as bait for the racists – they can get ‘Aussies’, ‘foreigners’ and ‘queue’ in the same simple sentence.”

    Which was the strategy for the Rooty Hill exercise,

  15. bbp

    [One of my work colleagues is on a 457 visa. He is most offended by the whole debate and feels that he has been made unwelcome in oz.]

    Same for me. He says he’d heard Australians were racists.

  16. Yoiks! see this exchange between myself and Geeksrulz (who did the front page mockup, with Mick Carroll the editor of the Sunday Tele.

    [Judge ‘n Jury rocket ‏@sprocket___ 17m
    @sundayteleed Is this really tomorrow’s front page? http://twitpic.com/cfkrln
    View photo

    Mick Carroll ‏@sundayteleed 16m
    @sprocket___ @geeksrulz an early edition …
    Expand

    No Fibs Geek ‏@geeksrulz 15m
    @sundayteleed For tomorrow 🙂
    Expand

    Judge ‘n Jury rocket ‏@sprocket___ 13m
    @geeksrulz @sundayteleed You should work out how to do alternate front pages (like alternate endings on DVDs). Would increase reader base.
    Expand

    Mick Carroll ‏@sundayteleed 9m
    @sprocket___ @geeksrulz not a bad idea … And not that hard to do. Already have three editions anyway #watchthisspace
    Expand

    No Fibs Geek ‏@geeksrulz 8m
    @sundayteleed @sprocket___ Good stuff. I am #watchingthisspace :)]

  17. I remember meeting Andrew Bartlett once, and he had his fingernails painted black, and black eye-shadow. I think he was Deputy to Meg Lees at the time.

  18. Bemused@116

    My colleagues 457 visa is all above board. He is offended by being tarred with a brush.

    Fair enough as the rorts are a very small proportion of the overall.

  19. Diogenes@118

    bbp

    One of my work colleagues is on a 457 visa. He is most offended by the whole debate and feels that he has been made unwelcome in oz.


    Same for me. He says he’d heard Australians were racists.

    Earthlings are racist.

  20. I’m always amazed when a people claim some trait (positive or negative) for themselves that had always seemed to me to be universal :P.

  21. blackburnpseph@122

    Bemused@116

    My colleagues 457 visa is all above board. He is offended by being tarred with a brush.

    Fair enough as the rorts are a very small proportion of the overall.

    Depends on the industry. In IT rorting is rife.

  22. Bemused @ 127

    Is there actually evidence for this in IT or just the same anecdotal evidence that the govt trots out in the debate?

  23. IT is the job sector in which a lot of our kids would like to work, and we should be supplying most our IT workers from our own population.

    Rorting 457s in the IT industry should be stamped out with steel heels.

  24. [Earthlings are racist.]

    I have always found Alpha Centaurans to be very, very courteous and polite to beings from other planets. The only problem with them is their insistence on eating you at the end of the meeting.

  25. blackburnpseph@131

    Bemused @ 127

    Is there actually evidence for this in IT or just the same anecdotal evidence that the govt trots out in the debate?

    Over the years there have been numerous reports in the press and I have seen it first hand as have many colleagues.

    Some very large and “respectable” companies are involved and Commonwealth departments are among the clients.

    The evidence would be very easy to gather.

  26. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@134

    IT is the job sector in which a lot of our kids would like to work, and we should be supplying most our IT workers from our own population.

    Rorting 457s in the IT industry should be stamped out with steel heels.

    Puffy… we are agreeing again. 😀

  27. Getting back to a subject more to my interest than ALP navel fluff,

    [ Peter van Onselen Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 11h

    …on the 500th day anniversary of TA’s refusal to show up we’ll interview an empty chair. #AustralianAgenda
    ]

  28. Bemused

    Yeah, so, so serious. Is the govt saying it has failed to keep control of its program over 6 years on the basis of this record, or is it whistling the familiar dog?

    “But figures from the Department of Immigration and Citizenship reveal the number of administrative sanctions – barring or cancelling a sponsor from the 457 visa program – declined from 164 in the 2009-10 financial year to 137 in 2010-11 and 125 in 2011-12.
    The department also confirmed it had brought only three civil cases against employers for misusing the section 457 visa program since September 2009.
    Two cases were settled out of court, including one in which a sponsor was fined $5000 for creating non-genuine positions.
    While there was a decline in serious breaches, there was a spike in infringement notices for minor offences. The number of such fines increased from two to 49 over the same period, a department spokesman said.”

  29. Bemused,
    With our kids glued to pcs, smartphones, tablets etc since birth, that is one sector nearly any of them could be trained in, and find work.

  30. jaundiced view@142

    Bemused

    Yeah, so, so serious. Is the govt saying it has failed to keep control of its program over 6 years on the basis of this record, or is it whistling the familiar dog?

    It is a case of lax enforcement.

    I am not against 457 visas for the purpose they were intended.

  31. 98

    No I am not saying that they should be banned from having jobs, just that they do not deserve the special advantage (in actually being given a job) of being available for a lower rate of pay. They should be payed the same rates of pay, party, so they are not further advantaged over groups more in need.

  32. So, does that mean the dep’t is not checking 457s as much as it should be? Maybe it is low on the list of priorities, seeing as most of the furor is around AS boat arrivals, (which is much to the benefit of the LNP and The Greens.)

  33. [The department also confirmed it had brought only three civil cases against employers for misusing the section 457 visa program since September 2009.
    Two cases were settled out of court, including one in which a sponsor was fined $5000 for creating non-genuine positions.
    While there was a decline in serious breaches, there was a spike in infringement notices for minor offences. The number of such fines increased from two to 49 over the same period, a department spokesman said.”]

    WOW….what an absolute rort! Over more than three years we have had:
    Three cases (two settled out of court)
    and “49 minor offences”

    Did they get Interpol and the CIA in to assist?

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