Seat of the week: Richmond

Coastal development has transformed the one-time National/Country Party stronghold of Richmond over the last few decades, with present Labor incumbent Justine Elliot building up a solid margin since unseating Larry Anthony in 2004.

Richmond has covered the north-eastern corner of New South Wales since federation, shrinking steadily over time due to ongoing coastal development (which among other things has cost it the river that gives it its name). It currently extends from Tweed Heads on the border as far south as Lennox Head just to the north of Ballina, extending inland to the western boundaries of the Tweed and Lismore municipalities (although Lismore itself is located beyond the southern boundary in Page). Once a jewel in the National/Country Party crown, its electoral complexion changed as it became increasingly dominated by Byron Bay and Tweed Heads. The area’s counter-cultural tendency is reflected by pockets of support for the Greens, including four of the party’s five strongest booths nationally at the 2010 election (Wilsons Creek, Goonengerry, Nimbin and Main Arm Upper, with Rosebank and The Channon not far behind), with their total vote across the electorate at 16.2%.

Richmond was first won for the Country Party by Roland Green shortly after the party’s creation in 1922, and has spent much of its history as a fiefdom of the Anthony dynasty. It was held from 1937 to 1957 by Larry Anthony, from 1957 to 1984 by Larry’s son Doug, who was party leader from 1971 to 1984, and from 1996 to 2004 by Doug’s son Larry. Doug Anthony’s immediate successor was another party leader in Charles Blunt, who emerged a shock loser at the 1990 election when the independent candidacy of anti-nuclear activist Helen Caldicott drew a rash of new enrolments from Nimbin-area types. When Caldicott fell just short of overhauling the Labor candidate, her preferences fuelled a 7.1% swing to Labor and a victory for their candidate Neville Newell. Larry Anthony failed to recover the seat for the Nationals on his first attempt in 1993, before romping home on the back of an 8.5% swing in 1996. A 6.0% swing in 1998 brought Anthony back down to the wire, and he again survived only narrowly in 2001.

Labor finally snared the seat in 2004, when a 1.9% swing enabled their candidate Justine Elliot to scrape over the line by 301 votes. Elliot went on to serve in the junior ministerial porfolio of ageing in the government’s first term, but was bumped down after the 2010 election to parliamentary secretary for trade, which both she and the Prime Minister insisted was at her own request. She retained the position despite publicly supporting Kevin Rudd’s leadership bid in February 2012, but eventually moved to the back bench in the reshuffle that followed the departures of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans in February 2013. Elliot again maintained the move was made on her own initiative, as she believed her campaigining against the locally sensitive issue of coal seam gas mining conflicted with her responsibilities in the trade portfolio.

The preselected Nationals candidate for the coming election is Matthew Fraser, 34-year-old owner of two local Hungry Jacks franchises. Fraser won preselection ahead of university lecturer Scott Cooper, newsagency owner John McMahon and the candidate from 2010, Myocum beef farmer Alan Hunter. The Liberals have agreed not to field a candidate under the terms of the state parties’ coalition agreement, despite having been only slightly outpolled by the Nationals in 2010 – by 21.2% to 19.1% on the primary vote and 25.3% to 20.8% at the second last preference exclusion. Their candidate from 2010, former Tweed mayor Joan van Lieshout, quit the party in September 2012 and said she was considering running as an independent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,837 comments on “Seat of the week: Richmond”

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  1. After much soul searching and a lot of regret I have.

    I suffered a little, over the years, at the hands of the Terrigals but put it down to a bit of roguery but ICAC shows there is no such thing as a little bit corrupt -the “whatever it takes” mentality inevitably leads to criminal behaviour with which I don’t want to be associated.

  2. [confessions
    Posted Saturday, March 30, 2013 at 9:50 pm | PERMALINK
    ….
    I’ve pointed out the logical inconsistencies in MTBW’s positions, not just on Swan but a whole host of other issues]

    The logical inconsistencies of an opinion.

    Wow….tell me more!

  3. Oakeshott

    Having read your contributions over a number of years i was aware that you were an alp sympathiser but never realised you were a member. Your contributions have always been reasoned without being one eyed.

    Methinks that those that cry loudest about their alp sympathies are not actually members ,however there are those like you and bemused who openly agonise who are or have been long term members.

  4. There are 3 reasons that there should not be lower wages for younger workers.

    Equal work for equal pay (basic fairness).

    There are young people with children and other financial responsibilities. They are a smaller proportion of these age groups than some of the older age groups but none the less they should be able to earn the money to provide for these responsibilities if working. Lesser and greater need can be dealt with by the tax system (e.g. family tax benefits).

    Having lower wages for youth encourages their employment ahead of people who are far less likely to be in education. It encourages the employment of teenagers, who have school/university/tafe/etc and who are much more likely to have parents (including some on high incomes) supporting them, ahead of the unemployed/single parents/etc. A ridiculous and regressive distortion.

  5. [Again tonight the International space station will make a bright pass over Perth and West Australia, the times and direction will vary slightly if you are not in perth.

    It will become visible at 6:45pm low in the South West, rising to an altitude in the sky of approx 63° (looking South East) at 6:48pm then end its visible run at 10° altitude looking North East at 6:52pm]

  6. William
    In 1989 there was terrific graffiti on the back of a large road sign on the Lismore-Bangalow road, “Axe Blunt”. And we did.

  7. [34
    Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, March 30, 2013 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    confessions
    Posted Saturday, March 30, 2013 at 9:37 pm | PERMALINK
    ML:

    MTBW is not an ALP member.

    But I understand s/he was, was a very active member, was highly respected and probably doesn’t deserve to be treated the way you treat him/her given you have only joined the party a few microseconds ago….don’t you think?]

    croc tears 🙂

  8. ML:

    Therein is the fallacy. I have not sought to disprove anyone’s opinions, but have simply highlighted logical inconsistencies in those opinions.

    As stated, MTBW finds this uncomfortable when applied to her comments and can only lash out irrationally in response. This kind of lizard/dalek thinking is singularly unhelpful to the ALP.

  9. Tom@58

    Young people are doing low skill service sector jobs that older people are unlikely to do. These jobs also provide these young people with skills so it is to some degree part of their educational experience.

    One of these days you greens should leave your friends the pixies at the bottom of the garden – and find out how the real world actually works and how real people work within it.

  10. There was a time when Ian Sinclair was Nats leader, and his two chief lieutenants were Charles Blunt and John Sharp. The joke was that Sinkers was bound to be bumped off, the only question was whether it would be with a blunt object or a sharp object.

  11. confessions@45

    and probably doesn’t deserve to be treated the way you treat him/her given you have only joined the party a few microseconds ago….don’t you think?


    Treated her?

    I’ve pointed out the logical inconsistencies in MTBW’s positions, not just on Swan but a whole host of other issues. I have been factual, rational and logical. If this counts as ‘treatment’ according to the concern trolls, then so be it.

    And if my non membership of Labor can be used to attack me, as it often was by MTBW, bemused, feeney and others, then I reckon it’s fair enough to give it back to them now I’m the member and they aren’t.

    Wrong as usual. feeney and I are both active members of the ALP and have been for many years.

  12. Oakeshott Country@40

    I was a member for 36 years but ICAC certainly showed me what I had been supporting for much of that time.

    I feel your pain even though I am in Victoria.

    The effect of all the ICAC disclosures won’t stop at the NSW border.

  13. confessions

    [As stated, MTBW finds this uncomfortable when applied to her comments and can only lash out irrationally in response. This kind of lizard/dalek thinking is singularly unhelpful to the ALP.]

    Do you really believe the rubbish you post?

    One person’s comment on an anonymous blog is “unhelpful to the ALP”?

    What world do you live in you need to get over yourself!

    Your vitriol is in a class of it’s own!

  14. [confessions
    Posted Saturday, March 30, 2013 at 10:11 pm | PERMALINK
    ML:

    Therein is the fallacy. I have not sought to disprove anyone’s opinions, but have simply highlighted logical inconsistencies in those opinions.]

    Right, so if someone thinks an MP is disloyal, for, say, I dunno, what could it be, lets say backstabbing their leader.

    Your version of proving the “logical inconsistency” of this opinion is to say it is wrong.

    I think I understand your world now confessions….well done 🙂

  15. […“unhelpful to the ALP”]

    ….methinks someone is going to get a little surprise as to exactly what has been “unhelpful” to the ALP in a few years / decade from now!

  16. MTBW@72

    confessions

    As stated, MTBW finds this uncomfortable when applied to her comments and can only lash out irrationally in response. This kind of lizard/dalek thinking is singularly unhelpful to the ALP.


    Do you really believe the rubbish you post?

    One person’s comment on an anonymous blog is “unhelpful to the ALP”?

    What world do you live in you need to get over yourself!

    Your vitriol is in a class of it’s own!

  17. [ Wrong as usual. feeney and I are both active members of the ALP and have been for many years. ]

    Don’t worry bemused – we all believe you. What was it Gillard said this week? Oh yes … that she was “appalled by the self-indulgence of Labor members”

    It was precisely people like you and feeney she had in mind.

  18. MTBW:

    Oh dear, obviously this is more of that intolerance you see in others yet can’t see in yourself coming to the fore again.

    Join the party you claim to support and then come back to me with your complaints. Until then your bleating counts for nowt.

  19. 66

    There are plenty of retail and hospitality jobs, that get filled by the school or university attending children of the middle and upper classes, in which the unemployed/single parents would be better off than on welfare.

  20. I feel sorry for the French:
    In the 60s the Chinese leader was a cabbage (Chou)
    Now the Russian president is a prostitute

  21. Maybe they just had somebody to junior to be in the anti-government loop editting it on a public holiday Sunday?

  22. [Right, so if someone thinks an MP is disloyal, for, say, I dunno, what could it be, lets say backstabbing their leader.]

    Except Swan hasn’t backstabbed the leader.

    MTBW supports all those who actually HAVE backstabbed the leader, only she whinges about people backstabbing the leader who is no longer leader because nobody could work with him.

    Logic FAIL. Sorry, but your inconsistency argument should be taken up with MTBW, not me.

  23. Player One@80

    Wrong as usual. feeney and I are both active members of the ALP and have been for many years.


    Don’t worry bemused – we all believe you. What was it Gillard said this week? Oh yes … that she was “appalled by the self-indulgence of Labor members”

    It was precisely people like you and feeney she had in mind.

    It would be better applied to her and her camarilla.

    The have got the ALP into a diabolical position Federally.

  24. [A #3 team is really a bit try hard – one i can understand , two i can barely accept, three tryhard!!]

    I’ve been a long-suffering Demons fan all my life. But both my sisters are Geelong fans so they’re #2. And I’ve lived in St Kilda for most of the last 30 years so they’re #3.

  25. confessions@83

    MTBW:

    Oh dear, obviously this is more of that intolerance you see in others yet can’t see in yourself coming to the fore again.

    Join the party you claim to support and then come back to me with your complaints. Until then your bleating counts for nowt.

    Oh this is beyond hilarious.

    In the ALP 5 minutes and having a go at someone who was a member for 27 years and occupied significant positions in that time.

  26. [jaundiced view
    Posted Saturday, March 30, 2013 at 10:23 pm | PERMALINK
    Andrew Bartlett nicely exposes the (yet again) cheap use of anything by Gillard to appeal to racists, most lately on the 457 visas, as in western Sydney. Brebdan O’Connor didn’t like it, but hasn’t said why or what after 2 days.

    “@AndrewBartlett @onlineopinion your view is utterly without foundation.”

    http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=14819%5D

    No surprise that Hanson supports the 457 visa plans
    We previously had Bolt and Senator Fielding’s Malaysian rendition plan

    She is an absolute gem, this Gillard, isn’t she?

  27. Tom @85

    Sorry, you cannot have a job because you are at university or because your parents could actually afford to give you pocket money. It is nonsense such as this why the greens will never have more than 10% of the vote. However, there are probably quite a few well heeled chardonnay socialist green voting types that encourage their university or high school kids to have a part time job.

  28. [88
    jaundiced view

    Andrew Bartlett nicely exposes the (yet again) cheap use of anything by Gillard to appeal to racists, most lately on the 457 visas, as in western Sydney. Brebdan O’Connor didn’t like it, but hasn’t said why or what after 2 days.]

    Why would Brendan O’Connor indulge the trolling of the green-trots?

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