Seat of the week: Richmond

Coastal development has transformed the one-time National/Country Party stronghold of Richmond over the last few decades, with present Labor incumbent Justine Elliot building up a solid margin since unseating Larry Anthony in 2004.

Richmond has covered the north-eastern corner of New South Wales since federation, shrinking steadily over time due to ongoing coastal development (which among other things has cost it the river that gives it its name). It currently extends from Tweed Heads on the border as far south as Lennox Head just to the north of Ballina, extending inland to the western boundaries of the Tweed and Lismore municipalities (although Lismore itself is located beyond the southern boundary in Page). Once a jewel in the National/Country Party crown, its electoral complexion changed as it became increasingly dominated by Byron Bay and Tweed Heads. The area’s counter-cultural tendency is reflected by pockets of support for the Greens, including four of the party’s five strongest booths nationally at the 2010 election (Wilsons Creek, Goonengerry, Nimbin and Main Arm Upper, with Rosebank and The Channon not far behind), with their total vote across the electorate at 16.2%.

Richmond was first won for the Country Party by Roland Green shortly after the party’s creation in 1922, and has spent much of its history as a fiefdom of the Anthony dynasty. It was held from 1937 to 1957 by Larry Anthony, from 1957 to 1984 by Larry’s son Doug, who was party leader from 1971 to 1984, and from 1996 to 2004 by Doug’s son Larry. Doug Anthony’s immediate successor was another party leader in Charles Blunt, who emerged a shock loser at the 1990 election when the independent candidacy of anti-nuclear activist Helen Caldicott drew a rash of new enrolments from Nimbin-area types. When Caldicott fell just short of overhauling the Labor candidate, her preferences fuelled a 7.1% swing to Labor and a victory for their candidate Neville Newell. Larry Anthony failed to recover the seat for the Nationals on his first attempt in 1993, before romping home on the back of an 8.5% swing in 1996. A 6.0% swing in 1998 brought Anthony back down to the wire, and he again survived only narrowly in 2001.

Labor finally snared the seat in 2004, when a 1.9% swing enabled their candidate Justine Elliot to scrape over the line by 301 votes. Elliot went on to serve in the junior ministerial porfolio of ageing in the government’s first term, but was bumped down after the 2010 election to parliamentary secretary for trade, which both she and the Prime Minister insisted was at her own request. She retained the position despite publicly supporting Kevin Rudd’s leadership bid in February 2012, but eventually moved to the back bench in the reshuffle that followed the departures of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans in February 2013. Elliot again maintained the move was made on her own initiative, as she believed her campaigining against the locally sensitive issue of coal seam gas mining conflicted with her responsibilities in the trade portfolio.

The preselected Nationals candidate for the coming election is Matthew Fraser, 34-year-old owner of two local Hungry Jacks franchises. Fraser won preselection ahead of university lecturer Scott Cooper, newsagency owner John McMahon and the candidate from 2010, Myocum beef farmer Alan Hunter. The Liberals have agreed not to field a candidate under the terms of the state parties’ coalition agreement, despite having been only slightly outpolled by the Nationals in 2010 – by 21.2% to 19.1% on the primary vote and 25.3% to 20.8% at the second last preference exclusion. Their candidate from 2010, former Tweed mayor Joan van Lieshout, quit the party in September 2012 and said she was considering running as an independent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,837 comments on “Seat of the week: Richmond”

Comments Page 33 of 37
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  1. [A policy debate will hopefully clear this point up.]

    Lets hope so, there are many rent seekers in super. The financial planners would love to get their fee schedules back.

  2. ruawake

    [Best value business class, Emirates Brisbane to Dubai – stay overnight – Dubai – London.]

    My niece is an Emigrates cabin-crewer so I stop in Dubai for 24 and crash on her couch.

  3. But yeah wow, tall buildings. Who gives a fuck? China has those in spades and at least there I can buy a beer at 7-11.

  5. The Bhutan landing is fine, don’t worry! I wouldnt watch the first 1 minute of that video though, unless you are not easily frightened.

    The video includes Lucknow in Nepal and Saba (Netherlands) and Tegucigalpa (Honduras) all of which are scary but none are that bad, don’t worry!

    Iceland is not out of the question…..is that where you can stay in the Ice Hotel?

    My shout- why of course!

  9. absolute

    [But yeah wow, tall buildings. Who gives a fuck?]

    That it’s a very convenient transit point to all sorts of places in Europe is the point.

  11. [confessions
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 7:31 pm | PERMALINK
    ML:

    What was so difficult about the Bhutan landing? The Netherlands airstrip looks much worse!]

    Its perhaps a technical thing. High altitude, low air pressure leading to difficult handing and a z shaped approach with houses and mountains very near. Also, I understand you cannot go around- so if you miss it, you don’t get another go (the mountains are too high to fly over in a go around)

  13. [Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 7:31 pm | PERMALINK
    The Bhutan landing is fine, don’t worry! I wouldnt watch the first 1 minute of that video though, unless you are not easily frightened.

    The video includes Lucknow in Nepal and Saba (Netherlands) and Tegucigalpa (Honduras) all of which are scary but none are that bad, don’t worry!

    Iceland is not out of the question…..is that where you can stay in the Ice Hotel?

    My shout- why of course]

    Just watched the Gibraltar landing what a great view of the Rock. hope they land the same way as my seat on that side of the plane (2a)
    Think the Ice Hotel is in Lapland? I am having two nights at the Blue Lagoon though, should be beautiful??? after that! Hope so!

  14. Mod Lib,

    “Its perhaps a technical thing. High altitude, low air pressure leading to difficult handing and a z shaped approach with houses and mountains very near. Also, I understand you cannot go around- so if you miss it, you don’t get another go (the mountains are too high to fly over in a go around)”.

    Sounds like an accurate description of coalition economic policy.

  15. mari,

    Is your flight into Gibraltar or are you driving through the border?

    There is a very nice coastal park on the Spanish side, just before the border.

  16. [Also, I understand you cannot go around- so if you miss it, you don’t get another go (the mountains are too high to fly over in a go around)]

    They must’ve had a HUGE number of plane crashes then as pilots learned to get the approach just right.

  17. [Sounds like an accurate description of coalition economic policy.]

    Yep, Tony is on the zig zag approach and praying for a “land me” button to appear.

  18. Tlbd

    [What else does it have?]

    Lots of sand and heat, some good restaurants and also Emirates excellent safe flights into most, if not all capital cities in Africa.

    And, of course, for me my nieces company.

  19. [If there is no determined policy, then Crean has a right to speak out. Seeing every issue through the prism of leadership challenge is really an excuse for gun shy behaviour.]

    I’m seeing it through the prism of it being 22 weeks till election day.

  20. CTar1

    No matter where you stop off along the way the Australia-Europe journey is going to rape your mind. May as well do it via countries that are somewhat interesting imo.

  21. psephos,

    So all policy comes from on high. I can’t see that working at all.

    I noticed you were waxing lyrical about an imaginary immigration policy earlier today.

    Remember, the election is only 22 weeks away.

  24. confessions

    “Agree with absolutetwaddle. Have never felt inclined to visit Dubai.”

    I would do my best to avoid even stopping over there on my way to somewhere else. Although I stopped smoking weed about two years ago I’m sure there’s several microns of the stuff somewhere on some of my clothes I could be lynched for.

    The fact it’s an appalling slave economy offering little else but glass and sand just seals the deal.

  25. Interesting bit from 2006.

    [KIM BEAZLEY: Stephen Conroy, Simon Crean, myself and every member of the Labor Party frontbench and backbench have a job to do now, that is to commit ourselves in the final 18 months before the next election to hold the Howard Government accountable – an increasingly arrogant government – and put in place the policies to defeat them.

    This is not about us.

    REPORTER: But Simon Crean…

    KIM BEAZLEY: It’s not about our own internals. It’s about what the Australian people need.

    DANA ROBERTSON: Both Simon Crean and one of his strongest backers, Julia Gillard, have pledged their loyalty to Kim Beazley. But they say he must wind back the factionalism if he’s to prove Labor’s fit to govern.

    SIMON CREAN: I have always been loyal to him, that can’t be questioned. But I want him to change. I want him to take a different leadership stance. I want him to be determined to smash this culture that’s ripping at the heart of the Labor Party, and I want him to be more determined on the policy differentiation front.

    I’ll join with him in any cause that it takes, always have and always will.

    JULIA GILLARD: It’s beyond the question of the preselection now. Clearly Simon’s been reindorsed. I think there’s a lesson from Simon’s preselection, and that is about rank and file democracy and people being over the grip of factions on the party, and that’s a lesson we can all learn.]

    So why is Simon still on his decade long holy war?

  27. CTar1,

    We tried the Korean restaurant in our our hotel: very kimchi.

    I don’t mind the hotness of kimchi, just the bitterness.

  28. Dubai Airport itself is terrific, if you can find a seat. You can buy more things there than you ever dreamt of.

  29. [This little black duck
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 7:32 pm | PERMALINK
    rua and mari,

    Dubai has a market covering about two blocks. Apart from that, take a walk around if you have time: concrete buildings with washing hanging out …

    There is this really excellent museum http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubai_Museum

    Definitely worth two hours of your time.]

    Thank for that One of my followers on twitter who lives in UK is writing a list for me and I am sure that is one he has suggested. A lot of people see my avatar of Santorini on twitterand ask me about Greek Islands, eg 4 this week

    AT 1600 Think because Dubai is there and now a very convenient hub . Doubt if I will stay there again after this time
    LBD 1615 I am flying in and out, staying here http://www.gibraltarbedandbreakfast.com/condiosco/ moored to the marina and going over the border into Spain for about 6 nights.

    BTW You and Poroti would love the Tall Ships of the Caribbean if you like sailing. I was on the little supply ship(Amazing Grace) 90 passengers that provisions the Tall ships (unfortunately now gone bankrupt) but believe the Tall ships are still going. Went from Grand Bahamas down to Trinidad , only problem was we ran into a hurricane, thought this was it. No stabilisers or anything, was assured all OK kept me going for 4 days– found out later the little sister ship went down in a hurricane. True

  31. This 2006 statement about the lesson to be learned is quite amusing in retrospect:

    “JULIA GILLARD: It’s beyond the question of the preselection now. Clearly Simon’s been reindorsed. I think there’s a lesson from Simon’s preselection, and that is about rank and file democracy and people being over the grip of factions on the party, and that’s a lesson we can all learn.”

  33. How about

    {Simon Crean:

    Well I would like again to think not. I made the decision in terms of the leadership because I believed we did need, interestingly enough generational change. I took the view then and this is me – I put the party ahead of me. I did stand down but I took the view if I couldn’t be the leader of the party I wanted to be part of a leadership team that still secured our victory. I have been loyal to every leader I have served under. No one can question that and I am loyal to Kim today despite the disappointment I am loyal to him, why? Because he’s the leader and he is the person that is going to take us to the next election, but if he is going to take us to the next election, he needs to lead a unified team. That was the lesson of my leadership. Without unity we’re not going to project an image that the public is going to warm to. So I am absolutely determined to continue to learn the lessons of history to do whatever I can to provide that unity but it’s got to cut both ways. If I give loyalty I deserve it in return and all I’m saying to Kim is, “Return some of the loyalty Kim.” ]

    Methinks he is stuck in a groove.

  35. Just listening to the 2GB 8pm news.

    They say:

    1. The country is up in arms about Labor’s superannuation “grab”.

    2. Simon Crean has said he’ll “vote against any measure” that changes superannuation.

    The onto Luke Grant after the news:

    1. Labor can’t manage their own budgt, so they’re “stealing” working people’s money by “taxing” superannuation.

    2. Simon Crean is a trusted and revered “elder statesman” of Labor and he’s “vowed to leave the party over superannuation.”

    My question:

    Is any of this real?

  36. You know what, Labor politicians should start getting into the habit of speaking out in order to make it a normal thing. Just like they should challenge for the leadership when the polls are up, not down!

    They managing expectations in the wrong direction :P.

  37. [confessions
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 7:48 pm | PERMALINK
    mari:

    Enjoy your travels. You seem to travel a lot, which I suppose is what retirement is for!]

    I answered this but seemed to have disappeared in the 8pm black hole
    Yes I love travelling and I am lucky my kids encourage me to enjoy myself and of course one living in Edinburgh helps, can’t let her feel left out can I? :devil:

  41. mari:

    [and of course one living in Edinburgh helps, can’t let her feel left out can I? ]

    Certainly not! 😀

  43. [My question:

    Is any of this real?]

    Nope. The ALP have announced nothing. Crean has said he will not support any backdating of super legislation.

  45. [confessions
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 8:20 pm | PERMALINK
    mari:

    and of course one living in Edinburgh helps, can’t let her feel left out can I?

    Certainly not!]
    Pleased you feel like that not sure she does some of the time I am there 😀

  48. [muttley’s clip of the ‘Vodka Burner’ Antonov A/C was taken at Canberra Airport.]

    I wondered where it was taken.

  49. I suspect th Martin Ferguson twitter account is showing the true April 1 colours

    [Martin Ferguson ‏@MFergusonMP 45s
    .@edhusicMP @ambitrant @prestontowers Crossing the line is when you destabilize a sitting PM. #auspol]

  50. CTar1

    [
    muttley’s clip of the ‘Vodka Burner’ Antonov A/C was taken at Canberra Airport.]
    Most memorable airport I have been to. Arrived on the same plane as Archbishop Markarios. Ansett Airlines, he was in cattle class with full regalia + staff.

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