Seat of the week: Richmond

Coastal development has transformed the one-time National/Country Party stronghold of Richmond over the last few decades, with present Labor incumbent Justine Elliot building up a solid margin since unseating Larry Anthony in 2004.

Richmond has covered the north-eastern corner of New South Wales since federation, shrinking steadily over time due to ongoing coastal development (which among other things has cost it the river that gives it its name). It currently extends from Tweed Heads on the border as far south as Lennox Head just to the north of Ballina, extending inland to the western boundaries of the Tweed and Lismore municipalities (although Lismore itself is located beyond the southern boundary in Page). Once a jewel in the National/Country Party crown, its electoral complexion changed as it became increasingly dominated by Byron Bay and Tweed Heads. The area’s counter-cultural tendency is reflected by pockets of support for the Greens, including four of the party’s five strongest booths nationally at the 2010 election (Wilsons Creek, Goonengerry, Nimbin and Main Arm Upper, with Rosebank and The Channon not far behind), with their total vote across the electorate at 16.2%.

Richmond was first won for the Country Party by Roland Green shortly after the party’s creation in 1922, and has spent much of its history as a fiefdom of the Anthony dynasty. It was held from 1937 to 1957 by Larry Anthony, from 1957 to 1984 by Larry’s son Doug, who was party leader from 1971 to 1984, and from 1996 to 2004 by Doug’s son Larry. Doug Anthony’s immediate successor was another party leader in Charles Blunt, who emerged a shock loser at the 1990 election when the independent candidacy of anti-nuclear activist Helen Caldicott drew a rash of new enrolments from Nimbin-area types. When Caldicott fell just short of overhauling the Labor candidate, her preferences fuelled a 7.1% swing to Labor and a victory for their candidate Neville Newell. Larry Anthony failed to recover the seat for the Nationals on his first attempt in 1993, before romping home on the back of an 8.5% swing in 1996. A 6.0% swing in 1998 brought Anthony back down to the wire, and he again survived only narrowly in 2001.

Labor finally snared the seat in 2004, when a 1.9% swing enabled their candidate Justine Elliot to scrape over the line by 301 votes. Elliot went on to serve in the junior ministerial porfolio of ageing in the government’s first term, but was bumped down after the 2010 election to parliamentary secretary for trade, which both she and the Prime Minister insisted was at her own request. She retained the position despite publicly supporting Kevin Rudd’s leadership bid in February 2012, but eventually moved to the back bench in the reshuffle that followed the departures of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans in February 2013. Elliot again maintained the move was made on her own initiative, as she believed her campaigining against the locally sensitive issue of coal seam gas mining conflicted with her responsibilities in the trade portfolio.

The preselected Nationals candidate for the coming election is Matthew Fraser, 34-year-old owner of two local Hungry Jacks franchises. Fraser won preselection ahead of university lecturer Scott Cooper, newsagency owner John McMahon and the candidate from 2010, Myocum beef farmer Alan Hunter. The Liberals have agreed not to field a candidate under the terms of the state parties’ coalition agreement, despite having been only slightly outpolled by the Nationals in 2010 – by 21.2% to 19.1% on the primary vote and 25.3% to 20.8% at the second last preference exclusion. Their candidate from 2010, former Tweed mayor Joan van Lieshout, quit the party in September 2012 and said she was considering running as an independent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,837 comments on “Seat of the week: Richmond”

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  1. 1647

    He is moving from the Legislative Council to the Legislative Assembly at the by-election created by Holding resigning. This leads to inevitable leadership speculation.

  2. Retrospectivity can mean we will deem this law to apply from say 1 dec 2007 which is the commonly understood form or it can we will tax super withdrawals differently for this future date, the retrospectivity argument being that I accrued the super thinking these wold be the rules and you’ve changed the goal posts on me.

    The latter seems to be the argument here but then the government has always had the capacity to do so. Still think they should be going after the 50 per cent cgt discount but cest la vie.

  3. mari:

    I know what you mean. Mum tried to get me to go to the UK with her, but I know from past experience that she and I do not travel well together, and politely suggested it wouldn’t be a good idea at this time. 😀

  4. jv –

    [try this approach at Tapini in New Guinea:]

    When the tail wheel drops on to the grass you can hear on of them say “Thank God”!

    😀

  5. absolutetwaddle:

    [The fact it’s an appalling slave economy offering little else but glass and sand just seals the deal.]

    I agree. I’d put the odds of me travelling overseas sometime in the next decade or two as trifling, but if something came up requiring that I travel to Europe I’d definitely not spend a minute in Dubai or the UAE. I recall their role in the Patrick’s maritime dispute of the late 90s and that suffices for me though the remarks of others here about their misogynist social policies would deter me.

    I’d also not want to stop in any jurisdiction with a death penalty and so that rules out Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, India, China and most of the US. I suppose if I wanted to fly to Europe I’d have to go via Hawaii and New York.

  6. [When the tail wheel drops on to the grass you can hear on of them say “Thank God”!]
    When you are well off Cusco Airport: “JFC!”

  7. ESJ,

    I stumbled across a copy of “A Time to Speak”, the original ESJ’s biography.

    It was marked down to 20 cents. However, when I said it wasn’t worth two bob the store person agreed and gave it to me for ten cents.

    I can see why you like Latham’s Diary. Plenty of self justification, excuses for ugly behaviour and plenty ofslagging off of contemporary colleagues. Just like the ESJ biography.

  8. “I’d also not want to stop in any jurisdiction with a death penalty and so that rules out Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, India, China and most of the US.”

    Reduce the drugs you carry to non-traffickable levels.

  9. 1656

    The USA has the death penalty at the federal level.

    There is Canada and you could look around the Caribbean for a stopover destination to your liking.

  10. [confessions
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 8:30 pm | PERMALINK
    mari:

    I know what you mean. Mum tried to get me to go to the UK with her, but I know from past experience that she and I do not travel well together, and politely suggested it wouldn’t be a good idea at this time.]

    Which is why I break up my time in Edinburgh, as well as pity for my poor SIL having me there too much? Lucky have friends and rellies in England so can go and annoy them too 🙂

  11. Hey Labor supporters, can you please answer me this -w does labor want to raid the super of the public and tax the so-called ‘rich’, but don’t want to lower the Polly pension?

  12. [poroti
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 7:30 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib

    Lukla’s Tenzing-Hillary Airport in Nepal and Wellington are pretty good/bad.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqgZvb37NX0
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_LaAkAyoz0%5D

    The “No go-around” rule in Lukla is a bit different to Paro! In Lukla the reason you can’t go around is because there is a whopping great big mountain exactly at the end of the runway (you could absail down it!). No need to work out weights and angles of attack there!

  13. Natalie d,

    Hey LNP supporters can you please answer me why you supported John Howard’s 15% surcharge on Super contributions from 1996?

  14. [try this approach at Tapini in New Guinea:

    When the tail wheel drops on to the grass you can hear on of them say “Thank God”!]

    A flying instructor once told me how they grade landings:

    If your passengers can get out of the plane after you land- thats a good landing

    If your passengers can get out of the plane and we can use the plane again- thats a great landing!

  15. [his little black duck
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 8:34 pm | PERMALINK
    When the tail wheel drops on to the grass you can hear on of them say “Thank God”!

    When you are well off Cusco Airport: “JFC!”]

    Certainly agree with that chewing my coca leaves & lollies madly as I land. not only for the altitude either!

  16. [Hey Labor supporters, can you please answer me this -w does labor want to raid the super of the public and tax the so-called ‘rich’, but don’t want to lower the Polly pension?]

    Natalie darling, who pressured John Howard to end the defined benefit scheme for politicians? If you missed it it was Mark Latham. Howard agreed to his motion in the Reps.

    Hello Tony …….

  17. Graeme:

    [Reduce the drugs you carry to non-traffickable levels.]

    I don’t ever carry illegal drugs. I just don’t agree with the death penalty.

    TTF&B

    [The USA has the death penalty at the federal level.]

    I hadn’t considered that. Yes, perhaps Canada would be a better route, assuming one could get there direct from Sydney.

  18. [CTar1
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 8:42 pm | PERMALINK
    mari – I had to learn not to do domestics in London.]

    Can understand that, just as well you and I are such peaceful types isn’t it 🙂

  19. mari:

    Holidays with family can be very stressful, even if it is great to catch up with those we see infrequently.

  20. [Hey Labor supporters, can you please answer me this -w does labor want to raid the super of the public and tax the so-called ‘rich’, but don’t want to lower the Polly pension?]

    Hey gutless LNP Tosser. Why don’t you do your own research?

    Too Lazy? Stupid? Brainless? Good Looking? Fundamentalist?

    Strike out what does not apply.

  21. Fran:

    I don’t think you can get to Canada direct from Sydney. When I went I had to go via Hawaii, and my ex who joined me later on went via LA.

    Incidentally I tried to buy Ponstan in a Canadian pharmacy and was absolutely shocked to be told that it’s strictly a prescription medication there. How backward, I thought.

  22. Mod Lib

    [A flying instructor once told me how they grade landings:]

    Everyone walks away is good.

    But CASA’s not quite so laid back!

  23. It would hardly be surprising if Ferguson complained about super.

    He would just be adding his name to all the other senior members who resigned including Crean.

    [Other Labor MPs, including Joel Fitzgibbon and Kim Carr, and as many as five of the seven crossbenchers have expressed concerns about possible changes to super, raising the prospect of a tough battle for the government to legislate changes.]

  24. [confessions
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 8:46 pm | PERMALINK
    mari:

    Holidays with family can be very stressful, even if it is great to catch up with those we see infrequently.]

    You are right which is why I din”t inflict myself too much for too long a time. Last year was a bit unusual as had to stay another 2 weeks as “had”to see Grandson go off to school for the first time, this was probably a week too long, in one go. But was handy for babysitting I think??

  25. ruawake:

    [Fran would you get a visa to traverse the USA?]

    I did get one in 1978 and another in 1990. I have since had occasion to reflect more generally on the ecological footprint of overseas travel and the relative inequity of me enjoying what comparatively few people on the planet can. In addition, I also have questions about the ethical implications of going to places where people live a lot worse than I do. I’d want a really good reason — something for more serious than mere recreation — to warrant going to such a place.

    Also, as TTF&B points out, the US has a Federal death penalty statute. US prisons are disproportionately filled with non-whites and these likewise make up a disproportionate percentage of death row inmates. Then there is GITMO and torture to consider, the leading role of the US in drone attacks on people in Horn of Africa, the Sub-continent and the Middle East. I can’t imagine these days that I’d find a warrant to go there.

    So in practice, Australia’s shores are probably as far as I’m going.

  26. natalie d@1662

    Hey Labor supporters, can you please answer me this -w does labor want to raid the super of the public and tax the so-called ‘rich’, but don’t want to lower the Polly pension?

    I shall certainly answer you when you have a decent proposition.

    Don’t take up our time with garbage.

  27. So nobody has an answer? Labor has no right to raid my money, and that that my late husband left for me, my children and grandchildren.

  28. says its all

    [Martin Ferguson ‏@MFergusonMP 31s
    @AdamCarr2013 Give up on life
    View conversation Reply Retweet Favorite More]

  29. [I’d also not want to stop in any jurisdiction with a death penalty and so that rules out Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, India, China and most of the US. I suppose if I wanted to fly to Europe I’d have to go via Hawaii and New York.]

    I’m beginning to think you’re a fake, too, a rather good parody of Green ultra political correctness.

  30. hey natalie d

    how can you get so emotional about Superannuation, which your precious Nats have voted against each and every time it has been before the Parliament?

    You should be promoting abolition of this socialist plot.

  31. [confessions
    Posted Monday, April 1, 2013 at 8:49 pm | PERMALINK
    Fran:

    I don’t think you can get to Canada direct from Sydney. When I went I had to go via Hawaii, and my ex who joined me later on went via LA.

    Incidentally I tried to buy Ponstan in a Canadian pharmacy and was absolutely shocked to be told that it’s strictly a prescription medication there. How backward, I thought.]

    Only other way is to go through Japan I think. I have problems as according to us security people I changed my fingerprints between two transits. Spent a very uncomfortable 3 hours in a small room with other undesirables, while they tslked to Washington about me. The outshot was they changed their finger prints software 3 days before I tried to go through Miami airport on way to LA and Sydney, so I assume someone else has my fingerprints. Anyway when I go back into the states again have to go to Sydney consulate tell them to ring Washington and they will issue me with a special visa. Think I will give it a miss. Then was told to “have a nice day”

  32. [So nobody has an answer? Labor has no right to raid my money, and that that my late husband left for me, my children and grandchildren.]

    If you had either the nous or intelligence to research what is going on you wouldn’t ask such idiot questions.

    You could also ask your Mummy but given the way genetics work there’s not a lot of hope in that direction.

  33. Crean obviously has a good idea what they intend regarding Superannuation and is putting them on notice what will happen if they persist with their plans.

    It is in any case political suicide to dick around with Super, unless they made it absolutely clear that they are talking about multi millionaires. Even then people will get that the principle of the Sacred safety of Super would have been breached.

    The mid 40s and over will be mightly pissed and may play it safe and vote Coalition, just to be sure.

    And God, how easy will it be for Abbott to take the contrary position as well as scare mongering.

    Gillard attacking the media and Super in an election year bespeaks political stupidity of the highest order, which seems to be her forte. Someone ought to tell her factional politics isn’t a precursor to real politics.

    If they want to do something good with Superannuation and retirement and the economy maybe the should enhance Transition To Retirement options which would give the best of both worlds to the individual, workplace and economy.

  34. mari:

    I’m not keen on the US and probably wouldn’t return. I found Chicago very scary if only for the scores of police walking/driving/wheeling around on scooter type things armed to the back teeth. I couldn’t wait to leave and get back to Canada which was a lot more laid back.

  35. Labor may well end up having a battle with the banks.

    [Westpac chief executive Gail Kelly recently warned the federal government against making more changes to super, saying uncertainty undermined confidence in the system.
    ]

    That could be interesting.

    The phrase “Robin Hood” is going to get a lot of airplay.

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