The western Sydney electorate of Greenway delivered the government a crucial win at the 2010 election, prompting much soul-searching from a Liberal Party which had been tardy in preselecting candidates in this and other key New South Wales seats. Greenway now stands as Labor’s most vulnerable seat ahead of an anticipated tidal wave in suburban Sydney.
The current boundaries of Greenway extend northwards from Blacktown and Toongabbie, about 30 kilometres west of the central business district, through Lalor Park and Kings Langley to Kellyville Ridge and Riverstone. The seat was substantially redrawn at successive redistributions before the 2007 and 2010 elections, of which the first increased the Liberal margin from 0.6% to 11.0% and the second created a Labor margin of 5.8%, boosted by a 6.5% swing to Labor at the intervening election. The more recent redistribution largely reversed the effects of the former, restoring the suburbs south of the M7 which had been accommodated in the interim by Parramatta and Chifley. The scale of the changes was such that the redrawn Greenway had more voters from Parramatta than the electorate as previously constituted. To Macquarie it lost the areas of Hawkesbury which had temporarily given it a semi-rural rather than outer suburban character.
Greenway was created in 1984 and held for Labor by margins at or near the double-digit range until 1996, when inaugural member Russell Gorman was succeeded by Frank Mossfield. Mossfield retired after a low-profile parliamentary career in 2004, after suffering a 6.5% swing that reduced his seat to the marginal zone in 2001. He was succeeded as Labor candidate by Ed Husic, spokesman for Integral Energy and a non-practising Muslim of Bosnian background. The Liberals were perhaps more astute in nominating Louise Markus, a community worker with Hillsong Church, then located in the electorate. Amid muttering of a whispering campaign targeting Husic’s religion, Markus secured a narrow victory with a 3.7% swing, aided in part by an 11.8% informal vote fuelled by a bloated field of candidates and the electorate’s large proportion of non-English speaking voters. This delayed Husic’s entry to parliament until 2010, when he won the outer western suburbs seat of Chifley.
The buffer added by the subsequent redistribution allowed Markus to comfortably survive the 2007 swing, and its effective reversal at the 2010 election had her seeking refuge in marginal Macquarie, which had absorbed the electorate’s outskirts areas. In what at first seemed a secure new seat for the party, Labor endorsed Michelle Rowland, a former Blacktown councillor. Rowland was said to have been “courted” by the party, and was imposed as candidate by the national executive with the backing of the Right. This met with displeasure among local party branches, as such interventions usually do, with critics said to have included Frank Mossfield. Rowland went on to survive a 4.8% swing at the election to retain the seat by 0.9%.
A Liberal preselection ballot held last weekend was won by Jaymes Diaz, a Blacktown immigration lawyer of Filipino extraction, who was also the party’s candidate in 2010. Diaz is associated with the Christian Right faction of state upper house MP David Clarke, and is said to have forged strong local connections through his work as a Blacktown immigration lawyer. It was reported in early 2012 that the party planned to choose the candidate from a US-style primary in a “calculated bid” to freeze out Diaz, with Tony Abbott said to favour a different candidate (there was a disputed suggestion he had approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson).
In the event the matter determined through a normal local party ballot, the result of which confirmed his strength in the local party. Sixty-nine votes were recorded for Diaz against 27 for Brett Murray, a motivational speaker and anti-bullying campaigner associated with the “soft Right” faction of Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, and a solitary vote for accountant Mark Jackson. Other high-profile contenders were former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson and Hills councillor Yvonne Keane, both of whom withdrew when it became clear Diaz had the numbers. Padding out the original field of nominees were business coach Robert Borg, gym owner Rowan Dickens, senior financial analyst Mathew Marasigan, marketing manager Ben Jackson, Hills councillor Mark Owen Taylor, security supervisor Renata Lusica and, curiously, Josephina Diaz, mother of Jaymes.
If the Victorian Right MPs oppose leadership change, that’s because they may be relatively safe in their seats. It’s people like Michelle Rowland and Ed Husic that I feel sorry for. They’re roadkill, whoever is leader.
I don’t hate Julia, but a lot of people do.
I’m not madly in love with Kevin, but a lot of people are.
If Labor’s polling agrees with the other outfits that he can save the sinking ship, then he must be given the chance. If not, stick with Julia. Any other option would be even more suicidal.
(Dave
Posted Sunday, March 17, 2013 at 6:03 pm | PERMALINK
mari@1339
Have just come back from a pleasant day out, see Natalie D is around again I assume an offspring of Mattie D
Matty d >> Natty d
Same same really. Don’t why the word game.]
Neither do I , would respect a fraction more if stayed with the same name, a bit hard though to respect at all 😉
poroti:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-17/auckland-shaken-by-two-rare-earthquakes/4578220
😮
Them sheepen shaggins are sheepen shakins!
PoK@1343
Well you overestimated some people didn’t you?
It panned out pretty much as I expected. It was really threatened before the site opened so no real surprise.
I am glad you don’t always agree with me. It would be a boring blog if the most frequent comment was ‘I agree’. 😀
Toorak toff
the gullible to the media are the ones who say they dislike gillard
Psephos, then they should have called it the Independent Settled Colonial Gallery of Victoria and worn the extra letterhead expense.
Bemused went:
[I know so little about twitter I don’t know if that is good or bad.]
https://support.twitter.com/articles/166337-the-twitter-glossary#f
[I do read twitter a bit and follow a few interesting people, but not on a regular basis.
I am also finding the WW2 tweets from 1941 fascinating and learning stuff I had never heard about before.]
The real time WW2 tweets are amazing. The obscure education provided by their 140 character bursts is quite something.
http://www.themonthly.com.au/rise-new-right-mark-latham-7780#.UUVsOHB2cH6.twitter
confessions
[Them sheepen shaggins are sheepen shakins!]
Ain’t called the Shakey Isles for nothing 🙂 That said the most number of “shakes” I’ve felt is on Darwin. Three in one night !! It does not seem to make the news “down south” but Darwin has heaps of shakes reported as being “Centered in the Banda Sea”
Toorak Toff@1351
Finally! Some sense. Now here’s the thing …
The polling shows that Gillard is more popular with Labor voters than Rudd, and that Rudd is more popular with Noalition voters than Gillard.
But what about the voters who will actually swing between parties? Do you really think these people are interested in either Gillard or Rudd? Their votes will most likely be cast on the basis of policy, not personality.
So here’s the only sensible position for Labor to take: Stick with Gillard, because he’s more popular with the voters you already have, and lay out a policy position to attract those voters who might swing your way.
The voters who say they prefer Rudd won’t vote for you anyway, so you may as well forget about them.
Which looks a lot like Labor is actually doing.
[ I am glad you don’t always agree with me. It would be a boring blog if the most frequent comment was ‘I agree’. ]
You have nothing to fear on that particular score, bemused.
I agree about the WW2Tweets, stumbled across them by chance and love them
poroti:
I lived in Darwin briefly, but don’t remember experiencing any earthquakes. A cyclone, yes, but no earthquakes.
[ Player One
Posted Sunday, March 17, 2013 at 6:18 pm | Permalink
..
Which looks a lot like Labor is actually doing.]
Concern trolls can read polls,
Liberal hacks can too.
Judge posters by what they write,
not by what they claim to be.
Possum Comitatus@1357
Thanks to that link to the twitter glossary.
Maybe if I invest a little time learning about it I may give it more of a go.
One of the WWII things I discovered recently was the mounting of catapults on merchant ships so they could launch a Hurricane on a one-way mission to provide air cover. A very effective deterrent so not too many missions were required and not too many pilots lost.
The things people whinge about today compared to what people endured then is just amazing.
my say
Why am I being nasty? I was sympathising. You said you had problems with laptop, didn’t you?
[Mr Denmore @MrDenmore
The Rise of the New Right | Mark Latham | The Monthly: http://www.themonthly.com.au/rise-new-right-mark-latham-7780#.UUVsOHB2cH6.twitter … via @themonthly]
Ruddstoration trolls (I do not count bemused in this he is a category of his own) are back because people now know there is polling in the field.
So I expect the trolls are flooding all the blogs they can and tweeting a lot as well.
Happens every time.
Player One,
I think that’s a rather optimistic view of “swinging” voters. However, I am naturally cynical of any political strategy that goes along the lines of “the only way”. I haven’t read the Maiden article, but I think I can reasonably certain to say that she didn’t address anything other than Rudd’s personality. No mention of policy or media change, changes in Cabinet or proceedure, or what will happen if her suggestion fails miserably. How would the other challenges be dealt with? The commentariat asks, well, install Rudd! Well what NEXT?!?!? It is every bit as stupid as anything in the 2010 campaign they malign. It is short sighted and narcisistic, and more than a little bit dishonest, if the ALP chooses that path.
guytaur@1368
As if that is going to influence a poll.
What percentage of the population follow a political blog and are susceptible to having it influence what they would tell a pollster?
Damn close to zero I bet.
“@profsarahj: The #Leveson vote tomorrow is huge. Potential for regulation with teeth, + rolling of main government party.”
[1313
Psephos
Posted Sunday, March 17, 2013 at 5:24 pm | PERMALINK
If the NGV predates the nation by 40 years, what was it originally called? The CGV?
Victoria has always been a nation, unlike that squalid prison camp to our north.
]
It is clear that Psephos has never been to the Art Gallery of NSW. Established in the 1870s It was called the National Gallery of NSW until 1958 when it was changed through legislation.
And all stratum of society are encouraged to attend through free admission.
confessions
[I lived in Darwin briefly, but don’t remember experiencing any earthquakes. A cyclone, yes, but no earthquakes]
I guess as a sheepin shagger earthquakes followed me 😆 That said.
[Banda Sea earthquake felt in Darwin
June 7, 2007]
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/banda-sea-earthquake-felt-in-darwin-20070607-h52.html
.
[Sea quake bumps Darwin
March 3, 2005]
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Sea-quake-bumps-Darwin/2005/03/02/1109700544604.html
.
[Darwin / MMI IV (Light shaking): Woke everyone up in the house, plates and windows continued to rattle
Darwin / MMI IV (Light shaking): Was awoken by shaking glass panes and hanging doors. Building had gently but lengthy sway about it (on 13th floor)
Darwin / MMI VI (Strong shaking):
Fannie Bay / MMI IV (Light shaking): Lasted about 60 Seconds. It woke us up and became increasingly noticable to the point we woke the kids and went outside. We have felt a few over the years and this was the strongest and the longest I can remember]
http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/earthquakes/2012/12/10/16/53/magnitude7-Indonesia-quake.html
.
[Darwin shakes from Banda Sea earthquake
DateApril 3, 2008 ]
http://www.businessday.com.au/national/darwin-shakes-from-banda-sea-earthquake-20080403-23bt.html
.
[Top End shakes as big quake moves earth
11 December 2012,
http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/2012-12-11/top-end-shakes-as-big-quake-moves-earth/1058724
.
[Banda Sea earthquake felt in Darwin of Australia 14:44, June 16, 2010 ]
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90777/90851/7027213.html
.
[
Darwin residents shaken by earthquake in the Banda Sea
July 13, 2011]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/darwin-residents-shaken-by-earthquake-in-the-banda-sea/story-e6frf7jx-1226093562851
[Chris Kenny @chriskkenny
#ABC journos so determined to support Labor/denounce Murdoch they’re prepared to surrender press freedom. Extraordinary. Where is #MEAA?]
Chris Kenny backing his master’s voice?
This is just because Emma Alberici said she’d read legislation and agreed with it, I suppose.
Psephos @ 1295
You are being presumptuous if not pedantic. Chill out, man!
You are clearly referring to a person that I am not referring to.
I am referring to Janelle Saffon, ex-high ranking soldier recently returned from a war zone, who later tonight will be parachuted into the inner west Sydney seat of Keating, and, who because of her excellent credentials, great public popularity, and impeccable leadershit skills will be elevated to PM in the early hours of tomorrow morning.
Trust me on that!
It is to be another 1983-Hawke-like scenario.
So all along, Rudd never had a chance, despite what Bemused and his pals have been feasting on for years.
poroti:
Well after I lived there.
[I don’t hate Julia, but a lot of people do.
I’m not madly in love with Kevin, but a lot of people are.]
TT, this is called ‘distinguishing between your own view and those of the punters’ and is a threatened species of comment here at PB.
bemused
I never claimed they influenced the polls. Just that they seem to come out from under their bridges when they know a poll is in the field.
We have had polls when people did not expect that were as bad for Labor as when trolls knew a poll was about.
S don’t find technology a struggle,
I do find though that this tablet I have, rather hard to
Navigate, so i suppose you could say that,
If you have’no knowledge of the key board I am using.
A simple tap brings up copy, if your not careful
the word paste comes up , and before u realize it, it has pasted
Something you had no intention of pasting
Now again you could say well its me, may be it is,
tell you what I do struggle with is my un steady hands aching muscles,
That’s scarederma for u.
Would not’wish it on any one.
But ha it could be worse. Of course.
I thank god every day for being able’to’keep’it u der control
My lap’top’which dh ‘thought suited me better, and purchased’by him
Attaches to my sewing machine,
where I digitise patterns,
So no I don’t struggle with technology.
And I also have soft ware, for. Drafting and designing.
So the only thing I struggle with
Is the key board.
And rude people
But rum’mell
I may come across rude to’u. But really trying to make u u derstand
What living with abbott would be like.
So no I don’t ,
I struggle with my hands and fingers,
And now my feet.
Pain is a struggle, but I never give in
And don’t spend my day on a blog
I try to walk twice a day, 30.min
And I hope I die with. Sewing needle in my hand
U can find some of. My work
At craftsy.com
People who appreciate other people for what they can give’to the
Creative world.
my say
I’m sorry you took my remark the wrong way. I genuinely meant sympathy. I have very painful arthritis in my fingers and some days find it very hard to type. Didn’t mean to upset you.
Malcolm Turnbull on his version of the NBN – his policy will be outlined in “eye-glazingly technical detail” sometime before the election.
[Opposition communications spokesman Malcolm Turnbull says all Australians will have access to faster broadband sooner and cheaper under the Coalition.
Mr Turnbull on Sunday warned the federal government’s National Broadband Network (NBN) was being rolled out so slowly it could take 20 years and $100 billion to deliver.
And under the NBN, around seven per cent of Australian homes would be left without fibre connections anyway and would have to live with slower wireless and satellite options.
As for the details of the coalition’s policy, Mr Turnbull said the final document would present no major surprises.
He said he had outlined the policy in “eye-glazingly technical detail”, so no one in the telecommunications sector should be left wondering what to expect under a coalition government.
“It will be released sooner rather than later, and there will be plenty of time – many months – before the election for people to consider it and debate it,” he said.
“We will complete the NBN, we will ensure all Australians have very fast broadband and we will do it sooner, cheaper and hence more affordably than the Labor government can.”]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/government-it/turnbull-australians-will-have-faster-broadband-sooner-and-cheaper-under-coalition-20130317-2g8h7.html#ixzz2NmRaiEik
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
Don’t be surprised if this sort of thing gets proposed for Qld as far as Newman’s power allows http://bit.ly/10YO4hd #qldpol
[“@profsarahj: The #Leveson vote tomorrow is huge. Potential for regulation with teeth, + rolling of main government party.”]
It is no coincidence that the LibDems and Labour in the UK and the Australian Government are pursuing this issue at the same time.
The Obama administration follows next?
Player One
[The polling shows that Gillard is more popular with Labor voters than Rudd, and that Rudd is more popular with Noalition voters than Gillard.
But what about the voters who will actually swing between parties? Do you really think these people are interested in either Gillard or Rudd? Their votes will most likely be cast on the basis of policy, not personality.
So here’s the only sensible position for Labor to take: Stick with Gillard, because he’s more popular with the voters you already have, and lay out a policy position to attract those voters who might swing your way.
The voters who say they prefer Rudd won’t vote for you anyway, so you may as well forget about them.]
Well, the problem with this analysis is that ‘ALP voters” have recently become only 34% of the sample. And yet far more than that voted ALP in recent years. And Rudd isnt popular with ‘noalition voters’, he’s popular with voters *in general*. For that matter, Gillard has only a narrow lead among ALP voters, last I looked.
The other way to look at is that ALP voters are getting more hardcore – theyll never vote coalition anyway – and Rudd has the better chance with the swingers and middle ground. The ones who deliver election results.
As for policy not personality weve seen some very depressing Essential polling suggesting strongly that punters preference for ALP on many issues isnt translating into a vote.
My Say
I can see and appreciate where you’re coming from. Tablets especially are a pain in ethe bum when they interpret a mere touch wongly. Their brains need to be curbed.
Keep on keeping on. 🙂
Tomorrow I will email the new PM Saffon and demand that voice driven keyboards become available at a cheap price. That’ll help you and me and I suspect many others.
citizen
[He said he had outlined the policy in “eye-glazingly technical detail”, so no one in the telecommunications sector should be left wondering what to expect under a coalition government.]
His details are jaw dropping rather than “eye-glazingly technical detail”. How good is he at tech stuff Rieth MkII ?
[Turnbull repays massive roaming bill charged to Aussie taxpayers
Summary: Australian Shadow Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has repaid an AU$13,000 bill for mobile phone use overseas that was originally charged to the taxpayer]
http://www.zdnet.com/au/turnbull-repays-massive-roaming-bill-charged-to-aussie-taxpayers-7000009493/
guytaur@1378
So what is the logic of that?
The current leadership speculation has some hallmarks of 2007. Costello was mooted far and wide in the press, backgrounded by himself, but Howard just played the dead bat and kept on going.
They even organised a “tap on the shoulder” by Downer and a few others, But Howard said I’ll need to consult my family. And Janette rightly said “F*** them, if they want your job and my Kirribilli House then let them call a spill and get 50%+1”
So JWH stared them down, and like the gutless wonders they were, Costello, Downer et al capitulated.
The PM is in the same position as JWH, and Rudd is Costello, not enough votes to get the 50+1, and those making the noise, backgrounding journos don’t have the guts to do anything decisive about it. I would suggest that if a delegation does show up in the PMs office, she will channel the Howards and tell them to go and F*** themselves.
And they will capitulate.
hris Kenny could be Exhibit A when it comes to demonstrating what is wrong with the MSM.
Nasty, Pure nasty.
hris = Chris
bemused
None. Its an observation of something that happens. As far as I can see Logic has nothing to do with it.
[The PM is in the same position as JWH, and Rudd is Costello, not enough votes to get the 50+1, and those making the noise, backgrounding journos don’t have the guts to do anything decisive about it. I would suggest that if a delegation does show up in the PMs office, she will channel the Howards and tell them to go and F*** themselves.
And they will capitulate.]
To continue the analogy, the PM then goes on to lose government? lets hope it goes differently then.
just wondering is mark kenny related to chris kenny in anyway,
cousin, step brother , brother
meguire,
Cousins.
Margo Kingston suggests that for the Nats to be consistent, they should support Labor on Media Laws.
[margo kingston @margokingston1
Hi @PMOPressOffice. Have a read of @Barnaby_Joyce case for a big media merger ‘public interest test’ http://australiansforhonestpolitics.wordpress.com/2013/03/17/where-does-the-national-party-stand-on-reining-in-murdochs-power/ … ]
Sprocket
I disagree. Costello never had the ticker to challenge. No matter what else you say about Mr Rudd he certainly did challenge.
Poroti
“Turnbull repays massive roaming bill charged to Aussie taxpayers”
The bastards feed us pap. Turnbull really doesn’t give a stuff about ordinary people and access to fast www.
He’s alright Jack!
He can buy his way out of the issues that affect ordinary mugs, like cheap communications to home from OS, by billing up enormous amounts to the taxpayer (without his conscience blinking an eye).
And if push comes to shove and he gets called to boo, he can always easily afford to pay it out of his own pocket (and of course get at least some contribution from the taxpayers by claiming it as a tax deduction).
That’s the usual modus operandi of the big end of town, supported by their conservo pollie mates.
thanks
Greensborough Growler
thought there was resemblance between them
boo = book
Oh and speaking of Truffles and the Wentworth Club.
[“It costs $5500 to be a “member”, $11,000 to be a “sponsor”, $16,500 to be a “patron”, $25,500 to be a “benefactor” and $55,000 to be a “governor”.”
“A governor can host boardroom events, and gets two tables at big functions featuring Mr Turnbull, and attendance at an exclusive dinner for supporters.”
]
http://kangaroocourtofaustralia.com/2012/09/09/malcolm-turnbull-the-rain-man-who-speaks-with-forked-tongue/