Seat of the week: Greenway

The biggest target in the well-stocked Sydney firing line is Greenway, where newly selected Liberal candidate Jaymes Diaz is shooting for second time lucky against Labor’s Michelle Rowland.

The western Sydney electorate of Greenway delivered the government a crucial win at the 2010 election, prompting much soul-searching from a Liberal Party which had been tardy in preselecting candidates in this and other key New South Wales seats. Greenway now stands as Labor’s most vulnerable seat ahead of an anticipated tidal wave in suburban Sydney.

The current boundaries of Greenway extend northwards from Blacktown and Toongabbie, about 30 kilometres west of the central business district, through Lalor Park and Kings Langley to Kellyville Ridge and Riverstone. The seat was substantially redrawn at successive redistributions before the 2007 and 2010 elections, of which the first increased the Liberal margin from 0.6% to 11.0% and the second created a Labor margin of 5.8%, boosted by a 6.5% swing to Labor at the intervening election. The more recent redistribution largely reversed the effects of the former, restoring the suburbs south of the M7 which had been accommodated in the interim by Parramatta and Chifley. The scale of the changes was such that the redrawn Greenway had more voters from Parramatta than the electorate as previously constituted. To Macquarie it lost the areas of Hawkesbury which had temporarily given it a semi-rural rather than outer suburban character.

Greenway was created in 1984 and held for Labor by margins at or near the double-digit range until 1996, when inaugural member Russell Gorman was succeeded by Frank Mossfield. Mossfield retired after a low-profile parliamentary career in 2004, after suffering a 6.5% swing that reduced his seat to the marginal zone in 2001. He was succeeded as Labor candidate by Ed Husic, spokesman for Integral Energy and a non-practising Muslim of Bosnian background. The Liberals were perhaps more astute in nominating Louise Markus, a community worker with Hillsong Church, then located in the electorate. Amid muttering of a whispering campaign targeting Husic’s religion, Markus secured a narrow victory with a 3.7% swing, aided in part by an 11.8% informal vote fuelled by a bloated field of candidates and the electorate’s large proportion of non-English speaking voters. This delayed Husic’s entry to parliament until 2010, when he won the outer western suburbs seat of Chifley.

The buffer added by the subsequent redistribution allowed Markus to comfortably survive the 2007 swing, and its effective reversal at the 2010 election had her seeking refuge in marginal Macquarie, which had absorbed the electorate’s outskirts areas. In what at first seemed a secure new seat for the party, Labor endorsed Michelle Rowland, a former Blacktown councillor. Rowland was said to have been “courted” by the party, and was imposed as candidate by the national executive with the backing of the Right. This met with displeasure among local party branches, as such interventions usually do, with critics said to have included Frank Mossfield. Rowland went on to survive a 4.8% swing at the election to retain the seat by 0.9%.

A Liberal preselection ballot held last weekend was won by Jaymes Diaz, a Blacktown immigration lawyer of Filipino extraction, who was also the party’s candidate in 2010. Diaz is associated with the Christian Right faction of state upper house MP David Clarke, and is said to have forged strong local connections through his work as a Blacktown immigration lawyer. It was reported in early 2012 that the party planned to choose the candidate from a US-style primary in a “calculated bid” to freeze out Diaz, with Tony Abbott said to favour a different candidate (there was a disputed suggestion he had approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson).

In the event the matter determined through a normal local party ballot, the result of which confirmed his strength in the local party. Sixty-nine votes were recorded for Diaz against 27 for Brett Murray, a motivational speaker and anti-bullying campaigner associated with the “soft Right” faction of Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, and a solitary vote for accountant Mark Jackson. Other high-profile contenders were former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson and Hills councillor Yvonne Keane, both of whom withdrew when it became clear Diaz had the numbers. Padding out the original field of nominees were business coach Robert Borg, gym owner Rowan Dickens, senior financial analyst Mathew Marasigan, marketing manager Ben Jackson, Hills councillor Mark Owen Taylor, security supervisor Renata Lusica and, curiously, Josephina Diaz, mother of Jaymes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 comments on “Seat of the week: Greenway”

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  1. Chris Kenny was Turnbull’s COS. He’s a Lib plain and simple and anyone who expects him to do anything but push Liberal propaganda all the time is kidding themselves.

  2. psyclaw

    [He’s alright Jack!

    He can buy his way out of the issues that affect ordinary mugs, like cheap communications to home from OS, by billing up enormous amounts to the taxpayer (without his conscience blinking an eye).
    ]
    Which sums up exactly what he said about the NBN on Sky this morning. If broadband can do what you need now then that is all you need.

  3. Wendy Bacon:
    [Malcolm Turnbull, himself a banker and businessman before he was a politician, has said that he sees the media reform package as a threat to freedom. If it does pass, he will repeal the changes if an Abbott government is elected. His position is consistent with his long held position on media regulation and opposition to the government’s role in providing for the broadband network NBN. He exaggerates existing levels of media diversity and dismisses opposition to News Ltd’s bullying campaigns as evidence that people fear critique.]
    http://newmatilda.com/2013/03/13/conroys-all-or-nothing-media-reforms

  4. [1396
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, March 17, 2013 at 6:53 pm | PERMALINK
    Sprocket

    I disagree. Costello never had the ticker to challenge. No matter what else you say about Mr Rudd he certainly did challenge.
    ]

    I’m not suggesting 2007 and 2013 are exactly the same, just similarities.

    You don’t get to be PM and survive the slings and arrows without a tough hide and unyielding belief in your own capability. No federal leader in the last 50 years has handed over the leadership (Rudd perhaps the odd man out). You don’t “tap PMs on the shoulder” and tell them to go. This is not Victoria and people like Ted Baileu don’t become leader.

    Maybe gelegnite would do it. Or a block of Caucus resigning and going to the cross benches. Something decisive. Our leaders don’t step aside very lightly, if at all.

  5. For those interested:

    IndiaVAus 7-437 (lead by 29 with 3 wickets in hand). Australia back in the match. Go Siddle!

  6. GG

    “Your soul”

    Well that’s OK.

    Who do I pay?

    So long as they don’t want my arse….. That’s not for sale!

  7. sprocket

    The fact is we know PMJG will not step aside. No leader worth the name does.

    Therefore any challenge will be messy and “bloody”.

    This would be insurmountable to win an election. Therefore I do not believe Caucus is entertaining the idea.

    Its all just MSM and LNP propaganda to show a government in chaos. If they panic Caucus into a leadership spill it is a bonus to them.

    For these reasons I know Mr Rudd will not challenge as stated. No one will draft him. No third challenger will appear.

  8. From Latham’s Monthly article:

    [The best way of understanding Abbott is through his problem with female voters – as shown in the polling gender gap. Normally, when one thinks of Australian men out of favour with women, larrikins come to mind – loveable rogues that test the boundaries of acceptable behaviour. Yet Abbott is supposed to be a conservative leader. How can a true conservative be unpopular with women?

    The answer lies in the Abbott paradox. He claims to believe in conservative values, yet far from displaying the conservative traits of prudence and caution, his political style is that of an extremist: forever exaggerating, forever inflaming debates, forever breaching conventional standards and attracting controversy. His impact on female (and many male) voters is toxic. He is leading a transformation of Australian right-of-centre politics, replacing traditional conservative values with reactionary tactics and the strong-arming of institutions.]

    Sounds a lot like Latham circa 2004. But yes, that’s exactly what Abbott does.

  9. Oh and Turnbull arsk licking of Murdoch on again on Sky. Under his scheme no more defamation cases against newspapers . Apparently his scheme of redress is so good it will no longer happen.

  10. I notice the Victorian government is still attempting to force “merit based pay” through, and are indicating they aren’t actually taking any different stance on Gonski than they did with Baillieu. Proof the change of leadership there was pointless. It is only going to get worse for them, especially when they had the brilliant idea of bringing paramedics and firefighters into the fight.

  11. GG

    Spare me. I certainly don’t want to go to hell …… Too many priests there.

    There’ll be holy Mass on 24/7 and they’ll be recrootin altar boys by the 1000s. It’ll be a place to keep well clear of.

  12. [THE country’s most trusted TV faces have united to share their passion for news and current affairs – and concerns about the government’s controversial media reforms.

    Putting their traditional network rivalries aside, 32 media heavyweight from the commercial and public broadcasters gathered at The Sunday Telegraph to discuss the changing landscape of news gathering and reporting and pose for a group portrait.]

    Blokes World DT brings together “the country’s most trusted faces” – all of them men!
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/the-men-of-tv-vent-free-speech-outrage/story-e6freuy9-1226598817631

  13. confessions

    Yes that was talked about on Insiders. Cassidy said one of the men he knew called it a stitch up.

    Shows everything about the editor that put the story together.

  14. [sprocket_
    Posted Sunday, March 17, 2013 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

    ..
    And all stratum of society are encouraged to attend through free admission.]

    Went there once, could not see the point of paint thrown on canvas, all worshop Jackson Pollock was the hum in the background. And the pile of unpainted 100mm*100mm RHS piled in the middle of the floor, was it art or the material for an extension? Long time ago, will never know. The paint made it to the national gallary I beleive.

  15. So we have two National Galleries and there is another ex National Gallery.

    Why waste all that money for a National Gallery in Canberra? It’s like the mountain going to Mohammed.

  16. Confessions,

    As discussed on Insiders, that photo was taken but had nothing to do with the media reforms. Again an example of the media distorting but what you would expect from the DT.

  17. [Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, March 17, 2013 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    So we have two National Galleries and there is another ex National Gallery.

    Why waste all that money for a National Gallery in Canberra? It’s like the mountain going to Mohammed.]

    There is more art than gallaries.

  18. Fred

    An awful lot of good exhibitions go to the NGA, such as the Turner. It’s not giving as many people the chance to see great art. It’s making art more elitist coz you have to travel from Syd or Melb and only the rich or very dedicated would do that.

  19. Diog

    To say nothing about Hobart Adelaide Perth Darwin and Brisbane.

    A National Gallery should be just that. National. A Gallery in every capital city. Rotating art between galleries.

  20. GG

    Yes, I’ m rooley worried about Sen Conroy’s new bill. I just know he wants to ban free speech and the Nissan Cedrics.

  21. [Sky News international editor and Newsnight host Stan Grant said he had spent much of his career working under repressive regimes where media freedom was brutally suppressed. ]

    Ah, the Howard years….

  22. Guytaur

    They should have a rooms worth of high quality stuff from each movement which travels between the state galleries.

  23. Diogs,

    Mate, they stopped building the Ring Road at Greensborough because they had found Paradise and there was no point continuing.

  24. But a National Gallery in each city should not have paintings. That would encourage attendance and then there would be added costs, like cleenin the looz.

    Jim Hackett says so.

  25. Geez, I’m watching SBS News for the first time in years. It’s friggin depressing compared to the commercial news and ABC.

    There sure are a lot of shitty countries to live in.

  26. “Sky News international editor and Newsnight host Stan Grant said he had spent much of his career working under repressive regimes where media freedom was brutally suppressed”.

    And there was me thinking he’d never actually said anything of import of recollection.

  27. Diogenes,

    [They should have a rooms worth of high quality stuff from each movement which travels between the state galleries.]

    Not a bad idea, actually. Presumably making rounds of regional centres as well. The Royal Melbourne Botanical Gardens has another section in Cranbourne that specialises in native flora, maybe something along similar lines?

    GG,

    [Mate, they stopped building the Ring Road at Greensborough because they had found Paradise and there was no point continuing.]

    LoL. I hear people complain about the ring road a bit (not least the people working on it). I only really need to take the Tulla or Bell St if I’m out that way.

  28. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Sunday, March 17, 2013 at 7:43 pm | PERMALINK
    mari,

    If true, that is a disgrace.]

    I agree that is why I was asking if Rummel is around if he knows anything about it

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