The western Sydney electorate of Greenway delivered the government a crucial win at the 2010 election, prompting much soul-searching from a Liberal Party which had been tardy in preselecting candidates in this and other key New South Wales seats. Greenway now stands as Labor’s most vulnerable seat ahead of an anticipated tidal wave in suburban Sydney.
The current boundaries of Greenway extend northwards from Blacktown and Toongabbie, about 30 kilometres west of the central business district, through Lalor Park and Kings Langley to Kellyville Ridge and Riverstone. The seat was substantially redrawn at successive redistributions before the 2007 and 2010 elections, of which the first increased the Liberal margin from 0.6% to 11.0% and the second created a Labor margin of 5.8%, boosted by a 6.5% swing to Labor at the intervening election. The more recent redistribution largely reversed the effects of the former, restoring the suburbs south of the M7 which had been accommodated in the interim by Parramatta and Chifley. The scale of the changes was such that the redrawn Greenway had more voters from Parramatta than the electorate as previously constituted. To Macquarie it lost the areas of Hawkesbury which had temporarily given it a semi-rural rather than outer suburban character.
Greenway was created in 1984 and held for Labor by margins at or near the double-digit range until 1996, when inaugural member Russell Gorman was succeeded by Frank Mossfield. Mossfield retired after a low-profile parliamentary career in 2004, after suffering a 6.5% swing that reduced his seat to the marginal zone in 2001. He was succeeded as Labor candidate by Ed Husic, spokesman for Integral Energy and a non-practising Muslim of Bosnian background. The Liberals were perhaps more astute in nominating Louise Markus, a community worker with Hillsong Church, then located in the electorate. Amid muttering of a whispering campaign targeting Husic’s religion, Markus secured a narrow victory with a 3.7% swing, aided in part by an 11.8% informal vote fuelled by a bloated field of candidates and the electorate’s large proportion of non-English speaking voters. This delayed Husic’s entry to parliament until 2010, when he won the outer western suburbs seat of Chifley.
The buffer added by the subsequent redistribution allowed Markus to comfortably survive the 2007 swing, and its effective reversal at the 2010 election had her seeking refuge in marginal Macquarie, which had absorbed the electorate’s outskirts areas. In what at first seemed a secure new seat for the party, Labor endorsed Michelle Rowland, a former Blacktown councillor. Rowland was said to have been “courted” by the party, and was imposed as candidate by the national executive with the backing of the Right. This met with displeasure among local party branches, as such interventions usually do, with critics said to have included Frank Mossfield. Rowland went on to survive a 4.8% swing at the election to retain the seat by 0.9%.
A Liberal preselection ballot held last weekend was won by Jaymes Diaz, a Blacktown immigration lawyer of Filipino extraction, who was also the party’s candidate in 2010. Diaz is associated with the Christian Right faction of state upper house MP David Clarke, and is said to have forged strong local connections through his work as a Blacktown immigration lawyer. It was reported in early 2012 that the party planned to choose the candidate from a US-style primary in a “calculated bid” to freeze out Diaz, with Tony Abbott said to favour a different candidate (there was a disputed suggestion he had approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson).
In the event the matter determined through a normal local party ballot, the result of which confirmed his strength in the local party. Sixty-nine votes were recorded for Diaz against 27 for Brett Murray, a motivational speaker and anti-bullying campaigner associated with the “soft Right” faction of Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, and a solitary vote for accountant Mark Jackson. Other high-profile contenders were former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson and Hills councillor Yvonne Keane, both of whom withdrew when it became clear Diaz had the numbers. Padding out the original field of nominees were business coach Robert Borg, gym owner Rowan Dickens, senior financial analyst Mathew Marasigan, marketing manager Ben Jackson, Hills councillor Mark Owen Taylor, security supervisor Renata Lusica and, curiously, Josephina Diaz, mother of Jaymes.
So now I’m being treated as a troll just because I am a National voter? Piers owned this morning. Farr, Middleton and not to mention Cassidy would suport Labor if Hitler were leader.
alias@1197
JG is certainly much smarter than any of her acolytes on PB.
alias
457’s are about temporary migrants filling supposed skills shortages. It is about as racist as the “Buy Australian” campaign.If xenophobes and assorted racists chose to take the crack down as stopping migration then that is their problem. Heck most 457’s come from Pomgolia .
[margo kingston @margokingston1
Key extracts of today’s Conroy Insiders interview – substantial evidence of very weak Press Council, now in http://australiansforhonestpolitics.wordpress.com/2013/03/16/last-chance-to-rein-in-murdoch/ … ]
[that Gillard has a growing reputation as a “tough negotiator” and for “getting stuff done” – and so they are desperate to try and counter this before it gets out of control.]
Frankly the tough negotiator is myth. Giving stuff away aka mining tax is not negotiating, it is buying yourself a PMs job by doing the will of the factions that just put you in.
The HOR hung parliament difficult is also mostly myth, those guys are not going to side against Labor unless they have a particular personal interest. And the real difficulty of govt lays not in HOR but the Senate, where Rudd had a much much more difficult Senate, Gillard’s pretty easy.
As has been said, she excels at being a competent administrator, project manager…but Leadership is a skill she does not possess as can be seen. And being expert and internal factional Labor politics leaves her totally deaf to the nations politics where as PM she is supposed to be superior… not the inferior exhibition she continually displays.
I also think there is a lot of BS in this ‘toughness’ meme. Being propped up by self interested factions who will keep you no matter how bad you are in order to protect themselves is not toughness at all.
If she were really held up to any internal Labor standard for her performance as leader and PM she would have been dumped last time around. Having guaranteed protection regardless of performance is not toughness and something that aids the destruction of Labor.
Confessions..
Sadly, that’s probably a reasonable probable prognostication.
However, it is to be hoped that the handful of MPs who need to change their vote will be doing so this very weekend, as they realise just how hopeless is Labor’s cause otherwise, and just how little time and opportunity there is to effect a change if they don’t act this week.
Often, through history, when circumstances like this concentrate minds, necessary shifts take place.
Contradictions . . .
ADAM GILES rids NT of the Indigenous Advancement portfolio. He said he wanted his ministers to be “accountable for delivery of services for all Territorians” … “not just pigeon-holing key Indigenous issues to one Aboriginal Affairs minister.”
TONY ABBOTT: “Under an incoming Coalition government, Indigenous affairs will be handled within the department of prime minister and cabinet. There will be, in effect, a prime minister for Aboriginal affairs.”
natalie d@1201
my say calls anyone who disagrees with her a troll so don’t worry, you have plenty of company.
You are a National voter? 😯
Oh well, can’t help bad luck I suppose.
If you want the absolute realest of reality I suggest looking at Julia Gillard’s horoscope:
[Libra
Beware the possibility of overstating your case or pushing you brilliant idea past the point of diminishing returns. Overselling yourself is as disadvantageous as underselling. Your energy is diffused at the moment and is scattered. If you have been living it up you are possibly living it up too much!]
alias@1197
Wrong on every count, alias. As I’m sure you know.
The best thing Gillard can do is not react to partisan hacks like Maiden.
confessions,
a minor modification if I may:
1. Neilsen will come out which will be bad or good for the govt.
2. This will create Ruddstoration Hysteria as OM anticipate a leadership change.
3. This will be quickly followed by Ruddstoration Frustration when the week passes as normal, and Parliament recesses for another 7 weeks.
4. Ruddstoration hysteria/frustration will continue to ebb and flow according to whatever is being written by Hartcher, Maiden, whoever Ruddists happen to agree with on any given week.
[Piers owned this morning. Farr, Middleton and not to mention Cassidy would support Labor if Hitler were leader.]
This shows such a lack of judgement that it is laughable. Over-egging the pudding takes away credibility.
Lizzie,
“Grundgesetz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland” 😛
But basically, they have taken the powers of the Bundespräsident way, way back, for historical reasons. He/She is appointed/elected by the Bundesversammlung (federal council) which consists of the Bundestag and delegates from the various states. The Bundespräsident’s role is largely symbolic and executive power is largely held by the Bundesregierung (federal Cabinet). I don’t think its much different to the system we effectively have here, though (hence why I’m quite sympathetic to it).
Even the preamble is similar (Translated):
[Conscious of their responsibility before God and man,
Inspired by the determination to promote world peace as an
equal partner in a united Europe, the German people, in the exercise of their constituent power, have adopted this Basic Law. Germans in the Länder of Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Berlin, Brandenburg, Bremen, Hamburg, Hesse, Lower Saxony, Mecklenburg-Western, Pomerania, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Schleswig-Holstein and Thuringia have achieved the unity and freedom of Germany in free self-determination. This Basic Law thus applies to the entire German people.]
There are lots of ways to make the Press Council more effective and powerful.
Why not, for example, webcast all their deliberations?
That could be done quite easily and cheaply, and would involve no government-appointed busy-body being appointed.
Thomas. Paine.@1205
Project Manager? Nope, wouldn’t make the grade. Project Administrator perhaps.
And for Rudd:
[Virgo
An ignorant and cowardly [???] from someone leaves you high and dry but also makes you much stronger. Use this to gain greater understanding and help others in similar situations. There may be an opportunity to connect with a group of people perhaps those from your past as for example group reunion or even a family get-together.]
Ruddstoration! How can you argue with this?
In terms of the Nielsen poll, I have no doubt it will reflect the same modest bounce in favour of Labor, as reflected in Newspoll, courtsey of the cynical fear campaign on 457 vis
Scarpat:
Yes, I did think of saying ‘whatever the result….’ just as I hit submit.
[ADAM GILES rids NT of the Indigenous Advancement portfolio. He said he wanted his ministers to be “accountable for delivery of services for all Territorians” … “not just pigeon-holing key Indigenous issues to one Aboriginal Affairs minister.”]
So I wonder now Departments and each CEO be set some sort of measurement criteria for performance in this area…..no likely. They will write some motherhood statements in their annual reports.
Probably Giles didn’t like the department executive of that group and knifed it for that reason.
natalie d
[Piers owned this morning. Farr, Middleton and not to mention Cassidy would suport Labor if Hitler were leader.]
I don’t think you are a troll but given the choice who would you pick to take over on The Insiders a) Barry Cassidy, b) Alan Jones c) Ray Hadley or d)Kerry O’Brien ?
Will India suffer a calamitous collapse and be all out in their first innings for less than the Australian score?
Can Julia Gillard claw back enough ground to win the election against Tony Abbott?
Very similar questions, with very similar answers.
alias@1217
For IT workers, there is nothing cynical, it is all too real.
poroti
She is an Avante Gard with all possible options so it’s taken a while to to work out how to turn off ‘Lingtronics’ and the like.
Now she chucks a quick left when I say so.
All I have to do is empty the ashtray and steer.
The rest she does.
“There are idiots of both genders.”
Then, bemused, you must have been thinking of Natalie d.
[Will India suffer a calamitous collapse and be all out in their first innings for less than the Australian score?
Can Julia Gillard claw back enough ground to win the election against Tony Abbott?
Very similar questions, with very similar answers.]
Rudd will not save the Australian cricket team if that’s what you’re implying.
alias
abnbott gets 50% of me3dia exposure
Gillard and labor heading for 100+ seats
crikey
The Turner exhibition was very good. They had a lot more paintings than I though they would and covered his whole life very well.
I’d like to be able to say the kids enjoyed it….
The first thing they said when we went in was “See Dad, look at all the old people. “
[Very similar questions, with very similar answers.]
And very different circumstances.
We aren’t going to an election in a few days time.
Bemused..
If the 457 visa system needs tightening in some areas, you do so in a low-key manner at an administrative level.
You most certainly do not, as PM, use the issue as the best weapon in your armoury as you march out to Western Sydney on the non-campaigning campaign, by using phrases like “putting Aussie workers at the front of queue” and inflammatory phrases like that, which have one, and only one intended purpose – to engender anti-foreigner feeling.
mimhoff
the only ones who has the coalition in frnt is murdoch news ltd
not abbott if it was up to abbott
labor 110+ seats victory
Thomas. Paine.
[Probably Giles didn’t like the department executive of that group and knifed it for that reason.]
On that point I think you are close to the mark. As for Giles “watch this space” aka Tollner.
Alias –
Are you being deliberately dense here? The Press Council runs itself (and would continue to do so under a PIMA). Who is it who determines whether the Press Council “webcast all their deliberations”? Why, that would be the Press Council. They could do it right now.
The government, currently, has no power to force the Press Council to do anything (beyond broadly shaking their fist and saying “do better or we’ll get out the legislation!”).
Are you suggesting that the government should have the power to legislate Press Council processes – something that would be orders of magnitude more intrusive than adding PIMA oversight.
If you’re not suggesting government legislating Press Council processes, then you’re not suggesting anything at all (unless you’re writing to the Press Council as we speak suggesting they implement web casting of all determinations…).
ie you have no idea what you’re talking about.
MB
In that case I think the astrologers are being reckless. They say it’s full steam ahead for Abbott, don’t worry about the details:
[Scorpio
A battle of wills may be at hand today but you have more friends than you know what to do with just now so this won’t trouble you. Continue daydreaming – as that will definitely satisfy your inner desires right now. Create what you want.]
gigi@1224
I wasn’t actually, but am not going to drop names.
Natalie d is merely deluded as are most National voters.
I had a fun time on the Benalla by-election handing out HTVs for the ALP and chatting to a couple of Nationals who seemed not to like much at all that their party stood for and yet they stubbornly stuck with them. Nice fellows, but totally lacking in the capacity to join dots.
I also find the anti Rudd stuff fascinating…given that he was only allowed a few minutes as PM … but somehow a meme arises mostly after his backstabbing….and put into hyper drive by the factions toy soldiers visiting the blogs and in the media.
Rudd sneezes… becomes Rudd has nasal cancer.
Rudd tells off a bunch factional scum who come looking for an increase in their allowances …Rudd is a chaotic megalomaniac…cant get on with anyone (read factional power brokers and all their representatives and toy soldiers).
Rudd negotiates with Wong a CPRS bill with Turnbull…who gets knifed at the last minute…then we have the Greens sitting with the Libs…. err… Rudd should go to a DD despite the fact that a joint sitting would have failed….AND the majority view of PB people at the time was it was too risky…lol
Rudd does one little thing…it because an absolute total character trait failure when it gets into the hands of his opponents/gillard supporters. LoL
as you were…
Diogenes,
[The Turner exhibition was very good. They had a lot more paintings than I though they would and covered his whole life very well. ]
Sorry to butt in, but is that J.M.W. Turner? I really like his work (never been big on the visual arts, but he is an exception), but couldn’t really find any of his stuff at the NGV when I’ve been there. Do you know if the exhibition is travelling?
Bugler
Thank you very much. As you say, very similar.
This is what my polling results
who has coalition in front
media/newsltd 99.5%
coalition themselves .5 %
We aren’t going to an election in a few days time.
That is what unsettling the journalists, political commentators and bloggers on sites like this one. People are still in the mindset of, because the election date has been announced, the election will take place in five weeks or so.
Thomas. Paine.@1205
Thank you for your brilliant confirmation of my original suspicions, TP.
But I think you and your mates are going to have to come up with a better strategy than this one. It is too easily refuted by anyone with an ounce of common sense.
Thomas. Paine.
Posted Sunday, March 17, 2013 at 4:06 pm | Permalink
I also find the anti Rudd stuff fascinating…given that he was only allowed a few minutes as PM …
————————————————
Close to a full term, and he stuffed it all himself
alias@1229
Yes, let’s not promote anything the government are doing!
A lot of migrants are very pissed off with the 457 scheme because they see it as back-door migration when they had an arduous journey to migrate through the formal channels. Are they xenophobic?
TT I think Dhawan might have been out caught without the ball touching his bat. Stiff hands.
Pujarra was out lbw for a ball he had inside-edged first. He did the sportsperson-like thing of course. First he stood there for a long time and then, walking off, he shook his head around 50 times before he got to the boundary.
I see that bemused, alias and TP are on the same page.
Birds of a feather.
alias@1229
Gosh. You and your mates are really running scared on this issue, aren’t you!
I see usedbum is back to his old bullying self, especially with My Say.
Hey big boy, why dont you come to tweeter and see if you can last 2 secs, rather than hiding behind William’s skirt
@TP/1235
A few minutes as PM?
I think you need to check your sources of information, it was 2007-2010 – about 3 years.
[That is what unsettling the journalists, political commentators and bloggers on sites like this one.]
Yep, hence the carry on about the PM campaigning.
Bemused
[You idiot.
I was quoting you. :mad:]
You’re like a chucked over garbage bin at 4 in the morning.
Boerwar@1244
Sorry, BW – I have to disagree. Trilobites don’t have feathers!